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IF we still had East/West 16 team playoffs

It’s still data and modeling predictions is relative to who should win or be ranked above another team. My only point is if you are absolutely looking to taking subjectivity out of the equation then it has to be based on the only language that is constant, math. When VHSL reference was rolling pretty good did anyone ever pay attention to Strength of Schedule? It’s isn’t a be all end all stat but is a decent indicator of who had played a more difficult schedule. Factoring in things like that as an example along with the current “surface” points would absolutely get a truer representation of who is rated higher. I call them surface points because as everyone has said, beating a 7-3 class 1 PM is not the same as beating a 7-3 Radford. But if you are a a class 2 program you get the same points regardless. It doesn’t take into account the teams those teams played and their strength. Currently wins are just one factor of many that could be used, they just choose not to. Hell did anyone watch Friday Night Tykes a few years ago? Completely different level of football and certainly not a glowing endorsement from me but they had a university professor come in and show them how to seed their post season brackets using his algorithm so it’s absolutely possible and there are more inputs than my ole dumb country butt could fathom.
 
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It's usually very reliable but that's just a game predictor, it's not been seriously used in any attempt to rank teams for any playoff have they? I thought we were talking about a system of ranking teams for playoff seeding, I could be confused
It could be one in the same. Nothing would ever be 100% correct, but if we found a system that truly rates a team, then, in theory, those ratings would be able to predict the winners of games.
 
I'm genuinely curious. Without subjectivity, you can solely rely on numbers. Under that scenario, teams would have an incentive to run up the score on lesser teams to score style points and increase their overall winning margin. I'm not saying it's a bad idea, in fact I'm saying the opposote: it's a great idea and if you can build a reliable enough formula, you can probably make a few dollars by putting it behind a paywall.

you'll still have to deal with issues like teams feasting on cupcakes to increase wins, but if you can figure out how to properly weigh each team it could be a fantastic tool.
All this talk has me curious too! I'm perfectly fine with our current system until something can be proven better.

I think we can come up with something better, but it would take a lot of work and trial and error. I would envision something that doesn't take into account margin of victory or any kind of "human" input.
 
All this talk has me curious too! I'm perfectly fine with our current system until something can be proven better.

I think we can come up with something better, but it would take a lot of work and trial and error. I would envision something that doesn't take into account margin of victory or any kind of "human" input.
If you (I'm saying you but this is just brainstorming) take out margin of victory tho, what objective analysis is left besides wins and losses? You would understandably weigh teams based on classification, beating a 9-1 4A team should prob count more than beating a 1A 9-1 team. I think as a private citizen just trying to make a formula for Your own means, margin of victory could be okay to include if it's not given enormous weight. As long as the state isn't using the formula, I think MOV is fine. Even if the state used the formula, MOV can probably be useful if it's just not a gigantic factor.

Possible data points:
Wins and losses (this could include multiple years to spot trends but not too far back as those games are irrelevant. Two seasons could work, maybe three but that could be too long)
Playoff wins in prior 1-2 years
margin of victory
enrollment and number of players actually on roster
returning starters
Points per game/ ppg allowed (home and away)
Turnover margin

and then if you wanted to try and quantify some outside info (i.e. winning % at home v. On road, if a coach has won titles or COY awards) and if you wanted to get super precise, find a way to add points if a team has exceptional talent. Like Graham would receive a tiny bump bc of Bradshaw and Meadows, KW has Claiborne, Lomax for us, etc.. But I worry that could just muck stuff up. That stuff is so hard to quantify objectively.

this is a very, very interesting idea and if it ever seems like I'm dumping on anything I am not whatsoever, I'm just thinking out loud how this could work.
 
Good read. I've had some of the same thoughts, although I eliminated a few because of subjectivity.

Number of returning players might impact a 14-1, state runner up team, coming into the next season, but would probably mean very little to an 0-10 team.

Science Hill, TN has 30 seniors on this year's team, but weren't any better than they were the last few years.

I have plenty of time to ponder before next football season! :)
 
Good read. I've had some of the same thoughts, although I eliminated a few because of subjectivity.

Number of returning players might impact a 14-1, state runner up team, coming into the next season, but would probably mean very little to an 0-10 team.

Science Hill, TN has 30 seniors on this year's team, but weren't any better than they were the last few years.

I have plenty of time to ponder before next football season! :)
I do think returning starters can be a useful tool if deployed correctly. If a bad team who gets blown out a lot, with a coach who has not shown an ability to turn around a team, returns a lot of starters it could be a detriment. Means you can't expect a big turn around since its gonna be more of the same. But, a team that maybe lost several games that were one possession games, with a coach who seems to be able to produce wins, returning starters could turn a 3-7 into a 7-3. VHS is a good example this year. Brought back talent and brought in a coach who seemingly knows how to win, and they go from an afterthought to a team who almost got a home playoff game.

it's not gonna be easy but there's enough data out there for the right person to be able to take in the data and give out pretty reliable info.

From my perspective,the teams that always seem to be around at the end have coaching stability, can win on the road, limit turnovers and aren't afraid to take an early season L if that can help the team by the end but how do you quantify that?
Getting reliable rankings on teams seems easy but it's actually so damn complicated.

I think starting with giving a set value for a win over an 0-0 same division team like 10 and then figuring out proper value for higher divisions, better records, inflated schedule, etc.. is the way to statt, but it'll take a lot of tinkering to get it right. Good luck!
 
It's usually very reliable but that's just a game predictor, it's not been seriously used in any attempt to rank teams for any playoff have they? I thought we were talking about a system of ranking teams for playoff seeding, I could be confused
Teams should be rewarded for playing up. Teams that play down should be penalized.

The old East/West format was better overall.
 
Teams should be rewarded for playing up. Teams that play down should be penalized.

The old East/West format was better overall.

In a vacuum yes, but this isn't in a vacuum.

So you believe Gretna should be rewarded for playing Manassas Park but be penalized for playing Riverheads or Galax? Salem should be penalized for playing Liberty Christian or Phoebus, while rewarded Colgan or Herndon?

And along those same lines, you HATE rematches, but if a larger school is penalized for playing a smaller school, then all you are going to have is same classification games, which will result in REMATCHES.
 
Teams should be rewarded for playing up. Teams that play down should be penalized.

The old East/West format was better overall.
Teams that play up get rewarded while the team they play against get punished? Maybe i missed something.
 
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