Note: The Northwestern District is one of two districts in Region 4C, which operates under a different playoff system than the other regions in Class 4. The top four teams in each district make the playoffs based off their performance in district play.
As of today, these are the playoff standings (first parentheses is a team's overall record, the second is their district record):
1. Liberty (8-0) (5-0 NWD)
2. Handley (7-1) (4-1 NWD)
3. Millbrook (5-3) (3-2 NWD)
4. Sherando (5-3) (3-2 NWD)
5. James Wood (6-2) (3-2 NWD)
6. Fauquier (4-4) (2-3 NWD)
7. Culpeper County (1-7) (0-5 NWD)
8. Kettle Run (0-8) (0-5 NWD)
As you can see, there is a logjam for the fourth and final playoff spot. Five teams are realistically in the mix, but one will be left out. Millbrook has the tiebreaker over Sherando, Handley has the tiebreaker over Millbrook, and Sherando has the tiebreaker over James Wood and Handley.
As a result, the most important game this weekend will be Millbrook at James Wood. If James Wood can pull off the upset then it's quite likely that the Pioneers miss the playoffs, given that Sherando will be heavily favored against their remaining two opponents and already has the tiebreaker over the Colonels.
Week 10 games:
Kettle Run (0-8) (0-5 NWD) at Culpeper County (1-7) (0-5 NWD)
I don't think either of these teams expected to be where they are in week 10 at the beginning of the season. Kettle Run is coming off a close game against Handley and have had several opportunities to get wins this season, but have come up short so far. Culpeper County got blown out by a Sherando team that had both its top receivers playing for the first time all season.
I think Kettle Run picks up the win in a game that could have major Region B playoff seeding implications between Louisa and Eastern View.
Prediction:
Kettle Run 28, Culpeper County 14
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Fauquier (4-4) (2-3 NWD) at Sherando (5-3) (3-2 NWD)
Fauquier's slim playoff hopes rest buried in Arrowhead Stadium, and it's going to take a big effort to pull out the victory over a Sherando team that is finally getting healthy for the first time since the pre-season. Fauquier's last win over the Warriors came in 2002.
Sherando's sophomore quarterback Rodeffer is making big strides every week since starting his first game against Martinsburg earlier in the season. Last week he got a D1 WR back to throw to in Keli Lawson, so expect the offense to be more varied than it has been up until this point.
I'll take the Warriors in this one:
Sherando 42, Fauquier 14
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Handley (7-1) (4-1 NWD) at Liberty (8-0) (5-0 NWD)
Handley has had a couple rough weeks recently, with their first loss coming to Sherando and a far closer game against winless Kettle Run than I'm sure the Judges expected (something they have in common with their opponent). That said they're still 7-1 and have one of the most dangerous players in the area at QB.
Liberty is looking to finish the season undefeated. They've had close games against Millbrook and Sherando, and a surprisingly close game against Kettle Run, but they've done enough to win each time.
I'll take the Eagles here:
Liberty 34, Handley 28
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GAME OF THE WEEK:
Millbrook (5-3) (3-2 NWD) at James Wood (6-2) (3-2 NWD)
Oh boy, this one has a lot on the line. While I'm sure there are ways both of these teams could make the playoffs with a loss, a win virtually guarantees a spot in the postseason and a loss means likely sitting on the couch come mid-November.
Though the Colonels have the better record, I think it's safe to say the Pioneers have played tougher opponents so far. Had James Wood played Loudoun County as Millbrook did, I'm sure they'd have another loss on their record by now.
Looking deeper into their schedules, James Wood has had some narrow victories against teams that Millbrook blew out, so I'd say the Pioneers are the better team. They have a very underrated quarterback and lots of speed like they do every year.
I'll take Millbrook in this one:
Millbrook 49, James Wood 35
As of today, these are the playoff standings (first parentheses is a team's overall record, the second is their district record):
1. Liberty (8-0) (5-0 NWD)
2. Handley (7-1) (4-1 NWD)
3. Millbrook (5-3) (3-2 NWD)
4. Sherando (5-3) (3-2 NWD)
5. James Wood (6-2) (3-2 NWD)
6. Fauquier (4-4) (2-3 NWD)
7. Culpeper County (1-7) (0-5 NWD)
8. Kettle Run (0-8) (0-5 NWD)
As you can see, there is a logjam for the fourth and final playoff spot. Five teams are realistically in the mix, but one will be left out. Millbrook has the tiebreaker over Sherando, Handley has the tiebreaker over Millbrook, and Sherando has the tiebreaker over James Wood and Handley.
As a result, the most important game this weekend will be Millbrook at James Wood. If James Wood can pull off the upset then it's quite likely that the Pioneers miss the playoffs, given that Sherando will be heavily favored against their remaining two opponents and already has the tiebreaker over the Colonels.
Week 10 games:
Kettle Run (0-8) (0-5 NWD) at Culpeper County (1-7) (0-5 NWD)
I don't think either of these teams expected to be where they are in week 10 at the beginning of the season. Kettle Run is coming off a close game against Handley and have had several opportunities to get wins this season, but have come up short so far. Culpeper County got blown out by a Sherando team that had both its top receivers playing for the first time all season.
I think Kettle Run picks up the win in a game that could have major Region B playoff seeding implications between Louisa and Eastern View.
Prediction:
Kettle Run 28, Culpeper County 14
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Fauquier (4-4) (2-3 NWD) at Sherando (5-3) (3-2 NWD)
Fauquier's slim playoff hopes rest buried in Arrowhead Stadium, and it's going to take a big effort to pull out the victory over a Sherando team that is finally getting healthy for the first time since the pre-season. Fauquier's last win over the Warriors came in 2002.
Sherando's sophomore quarterback Rodeffer is making big strides every week since starting his first game against Martinsburg earlier in the season. Last week he got a D1 WR back to throw to in Keli Lawson, so expect the offense to be more varied than it has been up until this point.
I'll take the Warriors in this one:
Sherando 42, Fauquier 14
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Handley (7-1) (4-1 NWD) at Liberty (8-0) (5-0 NWD)
Handley has had a couple rough weeks recently, with their first loss coming to Sherando and a far closer game against winless Kettle Run than I'm sure the Judges expected (something they have in common with their opponent). That said they're still 7-1 and have one of the most dangerous players in the area at QB.
Liberty is looking to finish the season undefeated. They've had close games against Millbrook and Sherando, and a surprisingly close game against Kettle Run, but they've done enough to win each time.
I'll take the Eagles here:
Liberty 34, Handley 28
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GAME OF THE WEEK:
Millbrook (5-3) (3-2 NWD) at James Wood (6-2) (3-2 NWD)
Oh boy, this one has a lot on the line. While I'm sure there are ways both of these teams could make the playoffs with a loss, a win virtually guarantees a spot in the postseason and a loss means likely sitting on the couch come mid-November.
Though the Colonels have the better record, I think it's safe to say the Pioneers have played tougher opponents so far. Had James Wood played Loudoun County as Millbrook did, I'm sure they'd have another loss on their record by now.
Looking deeper into their schedules, James Wood has had some narrow victories against teams that Millbrook blew out, so I'd say the Pioneers are the better team. They have a very underrated quarterback and lots of speed like they do every year.
I'll take Millbrook in this one:
Millbrook 49, James Wood 35
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