Odds & Trends Reveal 2018 Champion?

[CRF4Dan]

As customary each year... I look to the past to forecast the future... Each year I build on the data...
I look at three things... what the champion the year before did in the playoffs... how many wins that team had the year before and finally... where they finished ratings wise the year before in their class/division...


80% of champions either won a state title or went out in the second round of the playoffs. That would certainly apply to Highland Springs as not only do you have that to base off of but also, 7 of the last 9 champions won the year before. Not to mention 12 times the state champion won the year before.

80% of champions won 9 or more regular season games as well and the last 13 champions won 9 or more as well. Also 19 times the champion in Class/Division 5 went undefeated in the regular season the year before winning it all. So who fits all three of these benchmarks? None other than Stone Bridge!

Ratings wise, 75% of the champions finished in the top 3 the year before winning it all and 11 of the last 13 finished in the top 3 the year before as well. That plus the fact that eight times the team who finished second rating wise in their division/class won the next year translates to again... Stone Bridge a winner.


So by all accounts it looks as though Highland Springs or Stone Bridge will be winning it all in 2018.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I could have saved you all of that work, Danny. Just go ahead and engrave HSHS on the championship trophy. They are loaded more than any team, in any class. The only team that can stop them is the one in the mirror.

 

[bceagle47]

Highland Springs is certainly the favorite. Stone Bridge over Tuscarora? The Huskies have a lot more players coming back than the Bulldogs do.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Highland Springs is certainly the favorite. Stone Bridge over Tuscarora? The Huskies have a lot more players coming back than the Bulldogs do.

You have to remember, this is only Danny's "statistical" prognostication. And it does not use forward looking information. So, saying Tuscarora over SB, is nothing more than numbers thing.

But, you are correct. According to Maxpreps, (darn sure not a bastion of accurate information), Stone Bridge loses 27 to graduation. Tuscarora loses only 14. That's a ton of experience going out the doer at SB.

I say again, HSHS is so loaded, that only focus and attitude stands in their way of being unbeatable this year. It's not just their starting talent, they are so deep that it's ridiculous. They have JV running backs that are monsters, and will never see the varsity field this season. I don't know what the hell is in the water over there, but it's working.

At most schools they talk about those "special kids" as freaks of nature. At HSHS, if you are only 5'10" and 200lbs, that say you are nature's mistake.

 

[bceagle47]

Coach Thompson will reload and the Bulldogs will always be a force. Can’t replace some of the guys they lost (Thompson, Nameth, Mell, Kosko, and Martin) in one offseason but, Tatum is a quality QB and OG Ball is one of the nastiest linemen at any level.

Highland Springs had the best team quickness I had ever seen. Speed and depth at every level.

Tuscarora was a year ahead of schedule last year and will score a ton of points this year. They froze in the moment and the Springers pounced.

 

[bceagle47]

Can’t sleep on Broad Run either. D1 QB Griffis and D1 RB Baldwin may be the best skill players in NOVA.

 

[springer76]

Shhhhh.
Do't tell anybody! HSHS is going to be loaded for the next 4 to 5 years! There are some really good ones coming up the Pike that are still in Middle School!

 

[Herm5518]

Shhhhh.
Do't tell anybody! HSHS is going to be loaded for the next 4 to 5 years! There are some really good ones coming up the Pike that are still in Middle School!

I hear Ali Jennings from Herm has transferred to HS. Rumor has it there will be more.

 

[CRF4Dan]

I hear Ali Jennings from Herm has transferred to HS. Rumor has it there will be more.

I can confirm Ali Jennings is now at Highland Springs

 

[Herm5518]

I can confirm Ali Jennings is now at Highland Springs

Never thought I would see Herm players jumping ship to other schools. I wonder if it is related to the new coach or the uncertainty of losing Kane? I hope I am wrong, but Herm might be headed back to the pre-Kane days.

 

[CRF4Dan]

Never thought I would see Herm players jumping ship to other schools. I wonder if it is related to the new coach or the uncertainty of losing Kane? I hope I am wrong, but Herm might be headed back to the pre-Kane days.

Time will tell.

 

[springer76]

Time WILL tell. Ali has been added to Highland Springs' roster on Maxpreps too. Big pickup for HS, problem is if there are others, HS is already loaded with their own kids. They really don't NEED an influx of other's talent. The only thing I can see that HS might gain in would be beefy linemen. I hate to see the HS/Herm rivalry fall off!

 

[Herm5518]

Time WILL tell. Ali has been added to Highland Springs' roster on Maxpreps too. Big pickup for HS, problem is if there are others, HS is already loaded with their own kids. They really don't NEED an influx of other's talent. The only thing I can see that HS might gain in would be beefy linemen. I hate to see the HS/Herm rivalry fall off!

Agree, HS certainly doesn't need any help. Bird hired Troy Taylor...great move. Herm hired a relatively unknown coach....thought we would go after a proven winner since it is definitely a top-3 job in the area. As you guys have said, time will tell.

 

[springer76]

Coach Thompson will reload and the Bulldogs will always be a force. Can’t replace some of the guys they lost (Thompson, Nameth, Mell, Kosko, and Martin) in one offseason but, Tatum is a quality QB and OG Ball is one of the nastiest linemen at any level.

Highland Springs had the best team quickness I had ever seen. Speed and depth at every level.

Tuscarora was a year ahead of schedule last year and will score a ton of points this year. They froze in the moment and the Springers pounced.

HS will be faster and more physical on offense and on defense. The run game will be 2nd to none! Add the 3,000 yd QB last year with a flock of very competent WRs. The offense is beyond deepThe offense will be very hard to slow down!
The defense, returns just about everybody + up and coming talent! They will be extremely tough and deep

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I say again, the only thing that stands in their way is what they see in the mirror.

 

[springer76]

They know this. One thing I know about this coaching staff is: They tell these kids to NOT get caught up in the past. Concentrate on what's next! It hasn't gotten here yet. They have a lot of work to do! It's not going to be easy,. Stay focused on what they do as individuals, today. Then again tomorrow and then each day! Then by the end of August, we will be able to show the fruit of our labor.