As customary each year... I look to the past to forecast the future... Each year I build on the data...
I look at three things... what the champion the year before did in the playoffs... how many wins that team had the year before and finally... where they finished ratings wise the year before in their class/division...
So with that said let's look at the playoffs...
74% of previous champions went out in the 2nd round or no less than the state semifinals... The trend of last meaning the past 3 years has been the champion made no less than the state semifinals... On top of this, 11 times the champion the year before went out in the second round... So with that said, your pool of contenders is as follows:
Colonial Forge, Woodside, Woodbridge, Ocean Lakes, Riverbend, Thomas Dale, Freedom-PW, Lake Braddock and James Madison.
Now let's look at wins...
83% of the time teams that won the state title won 8 or more games the year before and 15 of the last 19 years, the champion won 9 or more games in the regular season the year before.
If you go a step further, 12 times the champion went undefeated the year before winning it all... So with that said, the pool contenders is Landstown, Colonial Forge and Freedom-PW.
Now let's talk ratings...
61% of the time, the champion finished in the top six the year before winning it all. In fact, 6 of the last 8 champions did just that. 5 times now the champion has had the highest rating the year before winning it all.
So who meets all these benchmarks? That would be none other than Colonial Forge.
Win wise, 83% of the time the champion won 8 or more games and 15 of the 19 last champions won 9 or more games during the regular season and 12 times the champion went undefeated the year before... That plays into the favor of Westfield, Landstown, Colonial Forge and Freedom-PW.
Now if we are talking ratings then you have to look at the top six as not only has the champion finished in the top 6 the year before by 61% but 6 of the last 8 champions also finished in the top six.
On top of this 5 times the champion was first in ratings the year before... that team that was first in 2017? Colonial Forge and they are the common denominator so... 2018 should be their year.
If you need a darkhorse, that would be Freedom-PW who meets 7 of the 9 benchmarks.
I look at three things... what the champion the year before did in the playoffs... how many wins that team had the year before and finally... where they finished ratings wise the year before in their class/division...
So with that said let's look at the playoffs...
74% of previous champions went out in the 2nd round or no less than the state semifinals... The trend of last meaning the past 3 years has been the champion made no less than the state semifinals... On top of this, 11 times the champion the year before went out in the second round... So with that said, your pool of contenders is as follows:
Colonial Forge, Woodside, Woodbridge, Ocean Lakes, Riverbend, Thomas Dale, Freedom-PW, Lake Braddock and James Madison.
Now let's look at wins...
83% of the time teams that won the state title won 8 or more games the year before and 15 of the last 19 years, the champion won 9 or more games in the regular season the year before.
If you go a step further, 12 times the champion went undefeated the year before winning it all... So with that said, the pool contenders is Landstown, Colonial Forge and Freedom-PW.
Now let's talk ratings...
61% of the time, the champion finished in the top six the year before winning it all. In fact, 6 of the last 8 champions did just that. 5 times now the champion has had the highest rating the year before winning it all.
So who meets all these benchmarks? That would be none other than Colonial Forge.
Win wise, 83% of the time the champion won 8 or more games and 15 of the 19 last champions won 9 or more games during the regular season and 12 times the champion went undefeated the year before... That plays into the favor of Westfield, Landstown, Colonial Forge and Freedom-PW.
Now if we are talking ratings then you have to look at the top six as not only has the champion finished in the top 6 the year before by 61% but 6 of the last 8 champions also finished in the top six.
On top of this 5 times the champion was first in ratings the year before... that team that was first in 2017? Colonial Forge and they are the common denominator so... 2018 should be their year.
If you need a darkhorse, that would be Freedom-PW who meets 7 of the 9 benchmarks.
