Past Shows Us Future Champ?

[CRF4Dan]

I sometimes like to look for trends and often use history to tell us what the future holds. That is not to say it's an accurate science but it at least gives us something to discuss at a time when we are all itching for football. So with that said...

Since 1987 58 teams have clashed in an effort to win a state title.

Of those 58 teams; 27 the year before were eliminated in the regionals or "Sweet 16" as I'm calling it and region finals or "Elite 8" as I call it in this instance.

Now at no point have teams that both lost in the "Elite 8" faced one another the next season and the same can be said about those who lost in the "Sweet 16" so odds are the runner-up will come from one and the champ will come from the other.

8 times the champion made it to the elite 8 the year before so that tells us the runner-up will come out of the Sweet 16.

11 times the runner-up has averaged 9 wins, that's almost double the next grouping which would be 10 wins occurring just six times. So with that said, your runner-up will either be... George Washington or Millbrook.

Now who do they lose to?

As stated, 8 times the champion the year before bowed out in the Elite 8 and 9 times that champion won ten games the previous year in the regular season. That narrows it down to Lafayette or John Champe fitting that bill...

So your 4A Final will be Lafayette or John Champe over George Washington or Millbrook.

 

[shauntclair]

MillBrook was an aberration. Lafayette and GW play wimp schedules. That's why they get in every year. Pick John Champe.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Damn, that's twice today I have agreed with Shaunty. What is happening to me???

 

[1MoreHokie]

Champe's schedule was abysmal as well. They played one 7 win team and one 11 win team and the rest were anywhere from two to six win teams of no consequence. Champe's scheduling was a driving factor in why I thought Salem would roll Champe like they did, especially since Champe was new to the playoff rodeo and had struggled with GW-Danville.

Unless you're accustomed to the pressure and challenge like Salem then having a one game schedule like Champe did isn't going to ready them for a deep playoff run. For what it's worth their schedules in 2014 and 2015 were roughly the same if not worse. They simply don't play in a good conference.

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

MillBrook was an aberration. Lafayette and GW play wimp schedules. That's why they get in every year. Pick John Champe.

Layefette= 2014 state championship appearance...GW Danville beats some team 11/21/14..Hmmmm

 

[shauntclair]

Layefette= 2014 state championship appearance...GW Danville beats some team 11/21/14..Hmmmm

Schedule for the Rams. Cougars never got off the bus. Won't try to dispute facts. I won't dispute 2013 either.

 

[shauntclair]

Champe's schedule was abysmal as well. They played one 7 win team and one 11 win team and the rest were anywhere from two to six win teams of no consequence. Champe's scheduling was a driving factor in why I thought Salem would roll Champe like they did, especially since Champe was new to the playoff rodeo and had struggled with GW-Danville.

Unless you're accustomed to the pressure and challenge like Salem then having a one game schedule like Champe did isn't going to ready them for a deep playoff run. For what it's worth their schedules in 2014 and 2015 were roughly the same if not worse. They simply don't play in a good conference.

I disagree on the schedule. NOVA in Leesburg and the Dulles is better than most the RR has to offer. And Champe is only 4 years old.

 

[tommythecpa]

In 2014 GW was just more ready to play than Courtland. GW came down the hill as fired up as any GW team ever. Nick Anderson identified the weakness from the 2013 game and worked on it in his first offseason at GW. Courtland was stronger upfront both years but could not match GW's overall speed.GW fumbled the killshot on Courtland's 10 which would have ended the game. GW was also better on special teams. GW converted a 2 point conversion on a fumbled PAT. Courtland's PAT and punt snaps were too slow.

 

[shauntclair]

You have one thing right. GW was more ready and Courtland is a notoriously slow starter. Final score 29 - 26 with GW hanging on for dear life during their 43 yard 2nd half offensive output. So much for speed being the difference. And all Courtland had to do was run it in at the end. Inexplicably, they passed and credit to GW, it was the only play they made in the 2nd half. Intercepted. Game over.

Noted for a team that doesn't beat themselves, they did just that against GW, LT and Sherando. Three years in a row, they had a team that could get to the final. Three years in a row, they screwed the pooch. It will be awhile before they are that ready again. About 3 months I'd say.

 

[tommythecpa]

What is the chance Courtland moves down to 3a? Is all of the growth in the Massap zone?

 

[cutnjump]

You have one thing right. GW was more ready and Courtland is a notoriously slow starter. Final score 29 - 26 with GW hanging on for dear life during their 43 yard 2nd half offensive output. So much for speed being the difference. And all Courtland had to do was run it in at the end. Inexplicably, they passed and credit to GW, it was the only play they made in the 2nd half. Intercepted. Game over.

Noted for a team that doesn't beat themselves, they did just that against GW, LT and Sherando. Three years in a row, they had a team that could get to the final. Three years in a row, they screwed the pooch. It will be awhile before they are that ready again. About 3 months I'd say.

Sounds like a lot of excuses for just not being good enough to get the job done in a particular game. Winning programs and fans accept that as the price of competition as opposed to trying to belittle the teams that sent them packing.

 

[shauntclair]

Sounds like a lot of excuses for just not being good enough to get the job done in a particular game. Winning programs and fans accept that as the price of competition as opposed to trying to belittle the teams that sent them packing.

I belittled no one. The Cougars did not perform. I don't see that as an excuse. I see it as fact. They lost. If anyone was belittled, it was them.

No doubt, LT and Sharando were competition but GW had no place on the field with them. Just like KG didn't this regular season but KG beat them. Sure, they spanked them 45 - 0 in the playoffs but how can they be so solid against quality opponents all year and just suddenly, not get off the bus. This is not a lament about the competition, this is about how a very good program just picks the most Inopportune times to simply not show up. Winning and losing doesn't matter to me. If you get beaten by a better team, you get beat. That's sports. Playing poorly is just flat disappointing and frankly, the Cougars have disappointed for a while. Great program that will continue to be great but too many playoff performances that can simply not be explained.

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

I belittled no one. The Cougars did not perform. I don't see that as an excuse. I see it as fact. They lost. If anyone was belittled, it was them.

No doubt, LT and Sharando were competition but GW had no place on the field with them. Just like KG didn't this regular season but KG beat them. Sure, they spanked them 45 - 0 in the playoffs but how can they be so solid against quality opponents all year and just suddenly, not get off the bus. This is not a lament about the competition, this is about how a very good program just picks the most Inopportune times to simply not show up. Winning and losing doesn't matter to me. If you get beaten by a better team, you get beat. That's sports. Playing poorly is just flat disappointing and frankly, the Cougars have disappointed for a while. Great program that will continue to be great but too many playoff performances that can simply not be explained.

You talk as if Courtland is a powerhouse year in and year out. Serious delusions..3 seasons with no rings and won't have any no time soon. Sorry to bust your bubble.

 

[ClarkeFan83]

You talk as if Courtland is a powerhouse year in and year out. Serious delusions..3 seasons with no rings and won't have any no time soon. Sorry to bust your bubble.

I remember way back in '82, I was a Senior at Osbourn High School. Our football team was undefeated and we played at Courtland for I guess was a playoff game. I remember the Courtland folks yelling "raw meat". They ended up stomping our boys. Whew, what a whoopin!

 

[cutnjump]

I belittled no one. The Cougars did not perform. I don't see that as an excuse. I see it as fact. They lost. If anyone was belittled, it was them.

No doubt, LT and Sharando were competition but GW had no place on the field with them. Just like KG didn't this regular season but KG beat them. Sure, they spanked them 45 - 0 in the playoffs but how can they be so solid against quality opponents all year and just suddenly, not get off the bus. This is not a lament about the competition, this is about how a very good program just picks the most Inopportune times to simply not show up. Winning and losing doesn't matter to me. If you get beaten by a better team, you get beat. That's sports. Playing poorly is just flat disappointing and frankly, the Cougars have disappointed for a while. Great program that will continue to be great but too many playoff performances that can simply not be explained.

As usual you seem to have confused fact and opinion. The fact is they lost. Your opinion is GW had no place on the field with them. My opinion is you need to learn to deal with it without making excuses.

 

[shauntclair]

As usual you seem to have confused fact and opinion. The fact is they lost. Your opinion is GW had no place on the field with them. My opinion is you need to learn to deal with it without making excuses.

Fact is, I made no excuse.

 

[shauntclair]

You talk as if Courtland is a powerhouse year in and year out. Serious delusions..3 seasons with no rings and won't have any no time soon. Sorry to bust your bubble.

Actually, they are a powerhouse program and play one of the strongest schedules in 4A. GW plays one of the weakest. GW is a .500 team with their schedule and will have to endure some nasty beatings. You equate rings with a powerhouse program? I do not. Not at a HS level. Or would you rather play Sherando every week? Or Massaponax or James Monroe? Stick with the pansies and think you're good. That's delusional.

I'll just deal with my team that carries the big stick and wins a lot of tough games but has occasional Erectile Dysfunction. Pass the Viagra but it's my burden to carry.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

I don't see all the posts in this thread, so I don't know exactly what kind of claims have been made. In regards to Courtland, once upon a time, they were a state power. They won titles in '82, '83, '85, and '87. Four out of six. Quite the impressive run.

The Cougars last made a state title game appearance in 1989, losing to Blacksburg. Since then, Courtland's cumulative playoff record is 18-17. They've made it to five state semifinals, losing by an average of 28.6 points.

Without over-selling it or taking unnecessary shots, Courtland's days as a state power are nearly thirty years in the rear view mirror. Ronald Reagan isn't in the White House, Michael Jackson no longer rules the airwaves, and the Huxtables have long since ceased to be must-see TV. Maybe, given the fact that it's been over a generation since the Cougars were a viable threat to even reach a title game, it's time to quit talking so much about Courtland.

 

[tommythecpa]

I don't see all the posts in this thread, so I don't know exactly what kind of claims have been made. In regards to Courtland, once upon a time, they were a state power. They won titles in '82, '83, '85, and '87. Four out of six. Quite the impressive run.

The Cougars last made a state title game appearance in 1989, losing to Blacksburg. Since then, Courtland's cumulative playoff record is 18-17. They've made it to five state semifinals, losing by an average of 28.6 points.

Without over-selling it or taking unnecessary shots, Courtland's days as a state power are nearly thirty years in the rear view mirror. Ronald Reagan isn't in the White House, Michael Jackson no longer rules the airwaves, and the Huxtables have long since ceased to be must-see TV. Maybe, given the fact that it's been over a generation since the Cougars were a viable threat to even reach a title game, it's time to quit talking so much about Courtland.

I think Courtland has a very good program. They are well coached and will give anyone a good game. The people are nice there and it is located in a nice location
GW is way more than a .500 program both in the near and long term. There have been only about 5 non winning seasons in 52 years and the program has not had less than 4 wins in that period. GW has had many college players and two No 1's. a no 2 and 3 in the NFL draft. GW football players have been drafted 1,2, and 4 in the MLB draft.

 

[cutnjump]

Fact is, I made no excuse.

You offer your opinion, again not fact, that the Courtland loss to GW was attributable to Courtland not playing well. The reality is most people would consider that an excuse and a failure to acknowledge that the other team might just have had something to do with that poor performance. You also use the excuse that Courtland starts slow without giving any credence to the possibility that GW just had a better plan out of the gate. That is analogous to me saying GW got complacent and let Courtland back in the game in the second half, an assertion I am sure you would be quick to challenge were I to actually make such a claim. Like your original argument that would be in poor taste and a questionable position to take and give no credence to the possibility that the Courtland staff just did a much better job than the GW staff with halftime adjustments. You clearly need a little better understanding of the history of high school football in Virginia and I would suggest you read Tommy's and Spartan of Yore's posts above as a start. At one time both Courtland and GW were considered powerhouse programs on the state level in Virginia and both are still solid but, far removed from being the powerhouses of past glory days. Furthermore, your schedule argument doesn't really acknowledge the realities of the current landscape. To a very large degree, schedule strength is influenced by the strength of teams normally scheduled in your proximate geographic region and budget considerations often impact the ability of a team to go outside of region to schedule higher level competition. Fact is there are just a lot more opportunities to schedule solid to good teams in the NOVA, Richmond and Tidewater areas(even the Roanoke Valley) than are available to most teams in central/southside and southwestern Virginia.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

I think Courtland has a very good program. They are well coached and will give anyone a good game. The people are nice there and it is located in a nice location
GW is way more than a .500 program both in the near and long term. There have been only about 5 non winning seasons in 52 years and the program has not had less than 4 wins in that period. GW has had many college players and two No 1's. a no 2 and 3 in the NFL draft. GW football players have been drafted 1,2, and 4 in the MLB draft.

I agree, Courtland is a very good program. I wasn't intending to make any comment about their people; I'm sure, like most places, the vast majority of them are okay. But since their days of dominance ended in the mid-eighties, the program seems to have leveled out at below "final four" quality

My point was, until they prove that they can even be competitive in a state semi once again, I think Courtland perennially generates more conversation about being a true contender than they actually deserve. Like one or two other schools that have gotten more discussion on this forum than their accomplishments in the past twenty-five years would seem to warrant.

 

[tommythecpa]

You offer your opinion, again not fact, that the Courtland loss to GW was attributable to Courtland not playing well. The reality is most people would consider that an excuse and a failure to acknowledge that the other team might just have had something to do with that poor performance. You also use the excuse that Courtland starts slow without giving any credence to the possibility that GW just had a better plan out of the gate. That is analogous to me saying GW got complacent and let Courtland back in the game in the second half, an assertion I am sure you would be quick to challenge were I to actually make such a claim. Like your original argument that would be in poor taste and a questionable position to take and give no credence to the possibility that the Courtland staff just did a much better job than the GW staff with halftime adjustments. You clearly need a little better understanding of the history of high school football in Virginia and I would suggest you read Tommy's and Spartan of Yore's posts above as a start. At one time both Courtland and GW were considered powerhouse programs on the state level in Virginia and both are still solid but, far removed from being the powerhouses of past glory days. Furthermore, your schedule argument doesn't really acknowledge the realities of the current landscape. To a very large degree, schedule strength is influenced by the strength of teams normally scheduled in your proximate geographic region and budget considerations often impact the ability of a team to go outside of region to schedule higher level competition. Fact is there are just a lot more opportunities to schedule solid to good teams in the NOVA, Richmond and Tidewater areas(even the Roanoke Valley) than are available to most teams in central/southside and southwestern Virginia.

That sums it up very well. I think GW's non district schedule will be more Virginia focused in the very near future.