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Statistically telling the future

southbottomU

VaPreps All District
Dec 5, 2004
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Over the last 33 years Salem has averaged 10 wins and two losses.My too early to matter prediction for the Spartans is 10-2, which would mean one loss in the regular season (probably Dinwiddie) and then losing in their second playoff game. Statistics don't lie, gotta be a lock :)
 
Over the last 33 years Salem has averaged 10 wins and two losses.My too early to matter prediction for the Spartans is 10-2, which would mean one loss in the regular season (probably Dinwiddie) and then losing in their second playoff game. Statistics don't lie, gotta be a lock :)
I like the most recent 5 yr trend- avg 13-1 with 5 semifinal appearances and 3 straight finals. That's a lot to live up to though. A lot of key players to replace this year and even more next year. The coaching staff has done an amazing job the last several years. You also have to give credit to guys stepping up when it's their time. I guess we'll see who's ready to step up pretty soon. Hopefully the weight room will be full of eager guys this summer who are ready to be the next man up.
 
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Yea, but I'm a realist. Salem got to the finals three years in a row in 98, 99, 2000 (winning all three). In 2001 they went 8-4 and then in 2002 had the worst record in the Willis White/Steve Magenbauer era 5-5 (33 years). Don't think the Spartans will go 5-5 but 10-2 would be a good season (especially since I'm hearing that some athletes will not be back in the fold)
 
Yea, but I'm a realist. Salem got to the finals three years in a row in 98, 99, 2000 (winning all three). In 2001 they went 8-4 and then in 2002 had the worst record in the Willis White/Steve Magenbauer era 5-5 (33 years). Don't think the Spartans will go 5-5 but 10-2 would be a good season (especially since I'm hearing that some athletes will not be back in the fold)

Salem finished 4-5-1 in 1983, White's first year at Salem. That '02 team that went 5-5 wasn't all that bad; they had four tough, close losses. The season opener, which the Spartans lost to Brookville in six OT's, set the frustrating tone for the season.

For my money - and this is strictly my personal opinion - the worst Salem team of the White-Magenbauer eras was the 2010 edition that finished 7-4. That team seemed to have very poor chemistry, almost no leadership, and not a ton of talent, especially after losing Seth Fisher to injury. The Spartans that year had narrow escapes over three really bad teams (LB, Fleming, Blacksburg), a loss to a mediocre (5-5) Pulaski Co. team, and were blown out by Cave Spring, who at 8-4 was no better than good. The team capped off the year by losing in the first round of the playoffs at home to sixth-seeded Magna Vista - thereby becoming the only Salem team ever to lose a home playoff game earlier than the regional final. So while a few teams over the years have posted worse records, I feel those teams were more competitive and played with more heart than the 2010 team.

For any of you that may have played on that team, or had relatives that did, I look forward to your cards and letters. Please address them to: Mike Salem, Salem, Virginia 24153. He'll be sure to pass them along to me.

As for what 2017 may hold for the Spartans on the gridiron, I currently can't even guess. Until a couple of months ago, it looked as if Salem would be in a good position to post one final excellent season in the current up-cycle that started in 2012. Then all the bad news began rolling in. To summarize what I've heard in general terms, at least eight different players who were going to have major roles and be key contributors are all questionable, for various reasons. These eight players would account for at least ten or eleven starting positions.

Obviously, if all return, all's well and good. Salem would have to be considered one of, if not the primary preseason favorite to win Class 4, with twelve or more starters (and an all-state kicker) returning. But if the worst should happen, and none return, then Salem would be looking at beginning to rebuild a year earlier than expected, with very few (four or less?) starting positions filled by returnees.

What will probably happen lies somewhere in between - some, but not all, of those guys will be back. We really won't have any idea until the first day of practice. Well, some real insiders might have an idea, but I won't, anyway. That's why it's currently almost impossible to predict Salem's record this year. If the whole crew is back, I'd say no worse than 9-1, with the sole potential setback to Dinwiddie, and a probable fourth straight championship game appearance. If none or only one show up, I could see 7-3 (L's to Dinwiddie, Amherst Co., Blacksburg) or even 6-4, with PH, Northside and a restocked Pulaski all being candidates for the other loss. And none of this even takes into account the Ramsey situation - I have no idea what will happen there. I have my opinion on what should happen, but I'll keep that to myself.

Regardless, they're not going to cancel the season, and nobody is going to feel sorry for Salem. Nor should they. The JV has only lost one or two games total the last four years or so. A lot of those young fellows may find that, this fall, opportunity is unexpectedly knocking. Someone will be happy to step up, given the chance. I'll just trust in the coaches, who usually prove themselves quite adept at recognizing and developing talent, and go from there. Maybe the run doesn't have to end just yet!
 
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All good stuff and just one of many reasons I hate to discuss teams prior to practice 1. you do not know what happen or who you have before then. And 2, mostly rumor.

But Salem has the program to put on a team that will represent well. But we do have a strong group of contending squads this year who all know they're good and will use the Spartans as a measuring tool.

If it he Spartans retain players like last year's, they'll be fine. How the new qb play will help a lot but it's tough for anybody to get to the final, especially with this year's schedule.
 
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