We are always looking for ways to determine what will happen in sports. It's not enough just to go by coaches or the players a team has returning, we need more. Especially at a time like this when there isn't much to talk about regarding say high school football as the school year quickly comes to a close and we have two months before practices begin... So let's do it, let's talk trends...
Last 13 teams to win championship in 5A reached no less than the second round the year before winning it all with 9 of those teams reaching no less than the state semifinal the year before... This plays into the favor of Kecoughtan, Green Run, Indian River, Highland Springs, Wakefield, Potomac, North Stafford, Briar Woods, Norview, Hermitage, Broad Run, Stone Bridge, LC Bird, Salem, Massaponax and Tuscarora.
* I lumped the second and third round together being as before 2013 there was only four rounds, not five.
12 of the 29 the champions in 5A reached at least the second round the year before wining it all.
Only once since 1986 has the champion not made the playoffs the year before so the odds are not in your favor if you didn't qualify last year.
There have been 17 different schools to win championships in 5A with four of those schools winning 16 of the 29 championships... Those four schools being Phoebus, Hampton, LC Bird and Woodrow Wilson. Woodrow Wilson and Phoebus however are no longer 5A schools.
In fact, of the 17 schools to win championships in 5A, only 7 remain! Those schools that have won championships in 5A that are still 5A are Hampton, LC Bird, Bethel, Meadowbrook, Patrick Henry(Ashland), Stone Bridge and Thomas Edison.
5 of the last 6 champions won the state the year before which plays into LC Bird's favor.
10 of the 29 champions won a state title the year before doing so again. That stat however does not play in Bird's favor.
Also working against Bird is the fact that only twice has a team won four championships in a row, Hampton and Phoebus. In fact, they are the only team two schools to win three straight in 5A.
LC Bird and Phoebus have combined for 7 of the last 9 state titles in 5A.
For those schools that reached the first round of the playoffs last year and that was it... Things do not look good, only one team has won the state title a year after bowing out in the first round, that team would be Bethel who won in 1992 but was bounced out the year before in the first round.
Since 2000, 15 championships have been awarded amongst 8 teams.
There have only been 6 first-time champions since 2000 in 5A.
The champion in 5A the year before finished the regular season undefeated in 9 out of the last 17 years which plays into the favor of Hermitage, Highland Springs, Tuscarora and Massaponax.
There has never been a champion in 5A who had less than 7 wins in the regular season before winning it all. So that gives hope to Indian River, Norview, Salem, Hampton, Kecoughtan, Douglas Freeman, Henrico, Hermtiage, LC Bird, Highland Springs, Wakefield, Briar Woods, Broad Run, Stone Bridge, Tuscarora, Massaponax and Atlee.
6 of the last 7 champions in 5A had a 31.8 rating or higher the year before winning the state title which applies to Massaponax, Stone Bridge, Tuscarora, Hermitage and Highland Springs.
So what do we take from this?
Odds are not in your favor of winning it all if you didn't make it to the second round last year.
Odds however are in your favor if you have won before, if you won more than 7 games last year and if you had a higher rating of 31.8. One team meets this criteria and that would be Stone Bridge. However, do not count out Massaponax, Tuscarora, LC Bird, Hermitage or Highland Springs as Bird is not to be counted out and if there is a first-time champion it could certainly be any of the other four.
Of course trends like records are meant to be broken and new ones created so we won't know for certain till December.
Last 13 teams to win championship in 5A reached no less than the second round the year before winning it all with 9 of those teams reaching no less than the state semifinal the year before... This plays into the favor of Kecoughtan, Green Run, Indian River, Highland Springs, Wakefield, Potomac, North Stafford, Briar Woods, Norview, Hermitage, Broad Run, Stone Bridge, LC Bird, Salem, Massaponax and Tuscarora.
* I lumped the second and third round together being as before 2013 there was only four rounds, not five.
12 of the 29 the champions in 5A reached at least the second round the year before wining it all.
Only once since 1986 has the champion not made the playoffs the year before so the odds are not in your favor if you didn't qualify last year.
There have been 17 different schools to win championships in 5A with four of those schools winning 16 of the 29 championships... Those four schools being Phoebus, Hampton, LC Bird and Woodrow Wilson. Woodrow Wilson and Phoebus however are no longer 5A schools.
In fact, of the 17 schools to win championships in 5A, only 7 remain! Those schools that have won championships in 5A that are still 5A are Hampton, LC Bird, Bethel, Meadowbrook, Patrick Henry(Ashland), Stone Bridge and Thomas Edison.
5 of the last 6 champions won the state the year before which plays into LC Bird's favor.
10 of the 29 champions won a state title the year before doing so again. That stat however does not play in Bird's favor.
Also working against Bird is the fact that only twice has a team won four championships in a row, Hampton and Phoebus. In fact, they are the only team two schools to win three straight in 5A.
LC Bird and Phoebus have combined for 7 of the last 9 state titles in 5A.
For those schools that reached the first round of the playoffs last year and that was it... Things do not look good, only one team has won the state title a year after bowing out in the first round, that team would be Bethel who won in 1992 but was bounced out the year before in the first round.
Since 2000, 15 championships have been awarded amongst 8 teams.
There have only been 6 first-time champions since 2000 in 5A.
The champion in 5A the year before finished the regular season undefeated in 9 out of the last 17 years which plays into the favor of Hermitage, Highland Springs, Tuscarora and Massaponax.
There has never been a champion in 5A who had less than 7 wins in the regular season before winning it all. So that gives hope to Indian River, Norview, Salem, Hampton, Kecoughtan, Douglas Freeman, Henrico, Hermtiage, LC Bird, Highland Springs, Wakefield, Briar Woods, Broad Run, Stone Bridge, Tuscarora, Massaponax and Atlee.
6 of the last 7 champions in 5A had a 31.8 rating or higher the year before winning the state title which applies to Massaponax, Stone Bridge, Tuscarora, Hermitage and Highland Springs.
So what do we take from this?
Odds are not in your favor of winning it all if you didn't make it to the second round last year.
Odds however are in your favor if you have won before, if you won more than 7 games last year and if you had a higher rating of 31.8. One team meets this criteria and that would be Stone Bridge. However, do not count out Massaponax, Tuscarora, LC Bird, Hermitage or Highland Springs as Bird is not to be counted out and if there is a first-time champion it could certainly be any of the other four.
Of course trends like records are meant to be broken and new ones created so we won't know for certain till December.
