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Way too early prediction...

VolNation85

VaPreps All District
Nov 29, 2013
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Who is the favorite to win it next year? I don't know as much about Class 3 as I do about Class 4 but, my guess would be Hopewell. Right? They return a lot of players from last years state team. Sure they have to replace all state Qb/Db and D1 running back but, that's about it. Who else do you expect to be in the hunt next year?
 
I do agree that LB will be a good team but they are going to have to fill some key positions. I believe Northside is going to have a really good team. I saw them play twice last year and they showed great emprovent from earlier in the season. They have a great coach and some good athletes. Not picking them to win state but they are going to surprise some people.
 
I do agree that LB will be a good team but they are going to have to fill some key positions. I believe Northside is going to have a really good team. I saw them play twice last year and they showed great emprovent from earlier in the season. They have a great coach and some good athletes. Not picking them to win state but they are going to surprise some people.
Yes Northside should be very competitive next season. Other than Brookville I believe Northside has more returning starters than anyone in west as far as 3A goes. I believe LB has had 2 undefeated JV seasons. Huge offensive and defensive lines for that age. They will be fine up front for years.
 
I agree it to early to tell 7 months away, but Hopewell does have alot coming back but anything can happen the east is fairly weak other than 3 or 4 teams Hopewell , jm, phoebus , i c norcom not sure about the west.
 
Out of the Seminole District Brookville returns the most and Heritage will still be tough.
Brookville was my thought too. I know they have a lot of weapons back. They have a huge whole to fill at QB though. Who is expected to step in at QB? How many return on the O/D lines?
 
I would think LB too but it seems they are too one dimensional. Seems like the high school game is evolving more towards college/pro style which means you have to have some type of pass threat. I'm not saying you have to throw more than you run but you have to throw the ball enough to keep the other team honest AND you have to be efficient when you do throw. All of this year's champions from 2A-6A had a balanced attack on O.
Hopewell..Maybe LB. Don’t know what’s going on at Magna Vista. Hopefully they get them a QB and get back into the mix.
 
I would think LB too but it seems they are too one dimensional. Seems like the high school game is evolving more towards college/pro style which means you have to have some type of pass threat. I'm not saying you have to throw more than you run but you have to throw the ball enough to keep the other team honest AND you have to be efficient when you do throw. All of this year's champions from 2A-6A had a balanced attack on O.
I do agree with you in part but as far as haveing a "balanced attack on O". Staunton Rivers single wing during the 2016, 2017 campaigns produced 26 wins,only 40 completed passes, 50.5 points per game, and 490 yards per game. Like you said the pass does keep the defense honest and most of SR's passes resulted for big yardage or touchdowns. Also 2017 Army had a 10 win season with a bowl victory and only 20 completed passes on the year.

IMAO l believe LB has a good offense. It's just there style. What they are going to do is grind you. They play physical football when they run the ball. Eat up as much clock as they can. Play good physical defence and are just looking to get a few stops. Next thing you know the game is over with a very low score. Kinda like UVA basketball . (Couldn't resist) But as you mentioned, you have to be able to pass the with efficiency and that is something they just lacked at times in 2017.

Though as you mentioned all of this years champions did have a balanced offense, the bigger picture is they all were balanced on both sides of the ball (offensive and defensive). Equally as good.

With all that being said I don't believe that it's the type of offense (college/pro style) that your run but its the high degree efficiency that you run it.
 
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I do agree with you in part but as far as haveing a "balanced attack on O". Staunton Rivers single wing during the 2016, 2017 campaigns produced 26 wins,only 40 completed passes, 50.5 points per game, and 490 yards per game. Like you said the pass does keep the defense honest and most of SR's passes resulted for big yardage or touchdowns. Also 2017 Army had a 10 win season with a bowl victory and only 20 completed passes on the year.

IMAO l believe LB has a good offense. It's just there style. What they are going to do is grind you. They play physical football when they run the ball. Eat up as much clock as they can. Play good physical defence and are just looking to get a few stops. Next thing you know the game is over with a very low score. Kinda like UVA basketball . (Couldn't resist) But as you mentioned, you have to be able to pass the with efficiency and that is something they just lacked at times in 2017.

Though as you mentioned all of this years champions did have a balanced offense, the bigger picture is they all were balanced on both sides of the ball (offensive and defensive). Equally as good.

With all that being said I don't believe that it's the type of offense (college/pro style) that your run but its the high degree efficiency that you run it.
I do agree with you in part but as far as haveing a "balanced attack on O". Staunton Rivers single wing during the 2016, 2017 campaigns produced 26 wins,only 40 completed passes, 50.5 points per game, and 490 yards per game. Like you said the pass does keep the defense honest and most of SR's passes resulted for big yardage or touchdowns. Also 2017 Army had a 10 win season with a bowl victory and only 20 completed passes on the year.

IMAO l believe LB has a good offense. It's just there style. What they are going to do is grind you. They play physical football when they run the ball. Eat up as much clock as they can. Play good physical defence and are just looking to get a few stops. Next thing you know the game is over with a very low score. Kinda like UVA basketball . (Couldn't resist) But as you mentioned, you have to be able to pass the with efficiency and that is something they just lacked at times in 2017.

Though as you mentioned all of this years champions did have a balanced offense, the bigger picture is they all were balanced on both sides of the ball (offensive and defensive). Equally as good.

With all that being said I don't believe that it's the type of offense (college/pro style) that your run but its the high degree efficiency that you run it.
in this day time with the spread offenses pass and run not just run 40 times and pass 3 or 4 times its hard to win like that and more athletic and fast and not just big 300 pounds but slow.thats how Hopewell won run 25 pass 15 or 20.
 
in this day time with the spread offenses pass and run not just run 40 times and pass 3 or 4 times its hard to win like that and more athletic and fast and not just big 300 pounds but slow.thats how Hopewell won run 25 pass 15 or 20.
You said that is hard to win with a run 40 times and pass 3 or 4 times but that is exactly what Staunton River did over the past two years. You can't argue with facts, statistics and wins. When it comes to winning it doesn't matter which type of offense that you run but it's effectiveness. With the above mentioned statistics no one could not say that style of offense was not effective. Teams knew they were going to run the ball, stack the box and still couldn't stop it. In 2016 there was about a 5 or 6 game stretch that they did not attempt a pass and still won all of those games.

Yes Hopewell did win state with as you mentioned a run 25, pass 15 or 20 but the biggest and most obvious thing that you left out was there great defense. They matched up very well athleticly with Heritage and came up with stops. They also scored 7 of there 21 off of a pick six. (Defense)
 
If you pay attention more and more the definition of balance in offense has changed. Before the spread offense people were not accustomed to seeing teams at the HS level throw the rock, all I think the spread did was change the idea of balance. To a lot balance is are you balanced in getting the ball to playmakers. In air raid offenses that may be in the form of passing game in the SR offense it was in carries for their three horsemen. I don’t think you’re at the point anymore where balance necessarily has to mean run/pass
 
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I think the higher up in class you get it helps to throw the ball more. Also, the further along in the playoffs you get balance means more. Louisa was a very good running team, but when they were forced to pass more they didn't do as well. It may have been because they weren't really forced to throw till late in the playoffs. In the championship game the passing game had 5 completions and 4 interceptions. It seems like balance means more the further you go along in the season. Balance in HS doesn't usually mean 50/50 in play selection or yards, but 90/10 rushing doesn't seem to be as successful against good defense.

Another important aspect of success is a good defense. Teams get so focused on offense that they don't devote as much to defensive preparation.
 
Mike, I tend to agree with you on the defensive part, I think faster turnarounds though do come from the offensive end (easier to take a struggling program and reinvigorate them with a high powered offense that is not seen in the area for example the early days of the spread or SR's single wing) however if you want to get over the final hump in football (and I think this crosses all levels) you gotta be able to stop somebody defensively. Someone correct me if I am wrong but when was the last time a national champion in college football didn't have a top 15-20 defense? and when was the last time a Super Bowl champion didn't have a top 10 offense? I have seen examples of titles won (first good example is the Trent Dilfer lead Baltimore Ravens) where defense won a title in spite of offensive play throughout season but very rarely the other way around. (even though HR6 would love seeing a bunch of 50-40 title games and Super Bowls haha)
 
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I think the higher up in class you get it helps to throw the ball more. Also, the further along in the playoffs you get balance means more. Louisa was a very good running team, but when they were forced to pass more they didn't do as well. It may have been because they weren't really forced to throw till late in the playoffs. In the championship game the passing game had 5 completions and 4 interceptions. It seems like balance means more the further you go along in the season. Balance in HS doesn't usually mean 50/50 in play selection or yards, but 90/10 rushing doesn't seem to be as successful against good defense.

Another important aspect of success is a good defense. Teams get so focused on offense that they don't devote as much to defensive preparation.
Mike, I tend to agree with you on the defensive part, I think faster turnarounds though do come from the offensive end (easier to take a struggling program and reinvigorate them with a high powered offense that is not seen in the area for example the early days of the spread or SR's single wing) however if you want to get over the final hump in football (and I think this crosses all levels) you gotta be able to stop somebody defensively. Someone correct me if I am wrong but when was the last time a national champion in college football didn't have a top 15-20 defense? and when was the last time a Super Bowl champion didn't have a top 10 offense? I have seen examples of titles won (first good example is the Trent Dilfer lead Baltimore Ravens) where defense won a title in spite of offensive play throughout season but very rarely the other way around. (even though HR6 would love seeing a bunch of 50-40 title games and Super Bowls haha)
I definitely agree with both of you. IMAO a good effective defense is the greater deciding factor of a successful football team as apposed which style of offense you should run to be successful. As long as your offense scores. *(Yes you must score) As previously posters have debated saying that you can't have a run heavy offense and not be successful is not true. SR's hybrid single wing, defenses knew they were going to run it 99.9% but had difficulty stoping it. In the case of SR semi game loss against Heritage, SR scored 35. A 35 point total would have won both 3A and 4A state championships. *(not saying they would have scored 35 in either of those games).
If you look at what won both those state championships it was defense that held both of those teams well below there season average.
 
I do agree with you in part but as far as haveing a "balanced attack on O". Staunton Rivers single wing during the 2016, 2017 campaigns produced 26 wins,only 40 completed passes, 50.5 points per game, and 490 yards per game. Like you said the pass does keep the defense honest and most of SR's passes resulted for big yardage or touchdowns. Also 2017 Army had a 10 win season with a bowl victory and only 20 completed passes on the year.

IMAO l believe LB has a good offense. It's just there style. What they are going to do is grind you. They play physical football when they run the ball. Eat up as much clock as they can. Play good physical defence and are just looking to get a few stops. Next thing you know the game is over with a very low score. Kinda like UVA basketball . (Couldn't resist) But as you mentioned, you have to be able to pass the with efficiency and that is something they just lacked at times in 2017.

Though as you mentioned all of this years champions did have a balanced offense, the bigger picture is they all were balanced on both sides of the ball (offensive and defensive). Equally as good.

With all that being said I don't believe that it's the type of offense (college/pro style) that your run but its the high degree efficiency that you run it.

No doubt that a one dimensional team can be really good and make it deep into the playoffs but, my argument is that it's difficult to win the whole sha-bang being one dimensional. Sure teams like LB, SR, and Heritage for that matter have been successful being a 90%+ running team but it was all for nigh IMO. If you're not winning championships then everything else is just moral victories. Who and when was the last one dimensional team to win a championship at 3A or 4A? It's been a while.
 
I definitely agree with both of you. IMAO a good effective defense is the greater deciding factor of a successful football team as apposed which style of offense you should run to be successful. As long as your offense scores. *(Yes you must score) As previously posters have debated saying that you can't have a run heavy offense and not be successful is not true. SR's hybrid single wing, defenses knew they were going to run it 99.9% but had difficulty stoping it. In the case of SR semi game loss against Heritage, SR scored 35. A 35 point total would have won both 3A and 4A state championships. *(not saying they would have scored 35 in either of those games).
If you look at what won both those state championships it was defense that held both of those teams well below there season average.
And the style of offense that Heritage and Louisa ran played right into the hands of a good run stopping defense. Had Heritage or Louis been able to throw the ball effectively then the outcomes may have been different. The same can be said if a team throws the ball 90% of the time and they run into a great pass defense team and they aren't able to run the ball effectively, they too would probably lose the game.
 
And the style of offense that Heritage and Louisa ran played right into the hands of a good run stopping defense. Had Heritage or Louis been able to throw the ball effectively then the outcomes may have been different. The same can be said if a team throws the ball 90% of the time and they run into a great pass defense team and they aren't able to run the ball effectively, they too would probably lose the game.
I can't speak for the Louisa football team(never seen them play) but as for Heritage there were a very one dementional team. They spread you out and basically played seven on seven with a great athlete in Davis in the backfield. It was a simple offence that could easily be defeated when it comes up against a fast, athletic (Hopewell). Also the opposite is with to much passing.(Western Albemarle)

IMAO SR. single wing is a much different run style offense that LB and WB. Those offences are all about power. Come up against a strong, athletic defense (Hopewell) your going to get beat. IMAO The hybrid style of single wing that SR runs is anything but one dementional. It's an offense built on fakes, misdirection, sweeps and power.They will catch you on your toes with all the runing then slip a guy behind the defense and pass. A few successful passes loosens the defense up and makes them have to respect the possibility of the pass. Also something that confused the defense was when the wing back went into motion and lined up as a wide receiver. Maybe I'm just partial but it sure is exciting to watch. Also if you don't have a team full of athilets it works. But when you do have a good group of athilets come through it can be really special.
 
No doubt that a one dimensional team can be really good and make it deep into the playoffs but, my argument is that it's difficult to win the whole sha-bang being one dimensional. Sure teams like LB, SR, and Heritage for that matter have been successful being a 90%+ running team but it was all for nigh IMO. If you're not winning championships then everything else is just moral victories. Who and when was the last one dimensional team to win a championship at 3A or 4A? It's been a while.

I would say the last team that was running game dominant in D3 was Poquoson in 2010, and in D4 Amherst in 06/07. But those Lake Taylor teams were pretty run dominant and safe to say those LC Bird teams were also 95% run.
 
For the 2014 & 2015 championship games Lake Taylor was balanced though. The 2014 squad had 170 yards passing and 200+ yards rushing. The 2015 team had more passing yards (150) than rushing (134).

I think against state level competition balance is becoming more important at the higher levels. I don't mean 50/50 necessarily, but 70/30 is usually effective in the latter stages of the playoffs. Staunton River did a very good job the last 2 years with their system so I'm not being critical. Their season ended both years with close competitive games. It just seems like the championship comes down to balance more than it used to and of course defense has always been key.
 
For the 2014 & 2015 championship games Lake Taylor was balanced though. The 2014 squad had 170 yards passing and 200+ yards rushing. The 2015 team had more passing yards (150) than rushing (134).

I think against state level competition balance is becoming more important at the higher levels. I don't mean 50/50 necessarily, but 70/30 is usually effective in the latter stages of the playoffs. Staunton River did a very good job the last 2 years with their system so I'm not being critical. Their season ended both years with close competitive games. It just seems like the championship comes down to balance more than it used to and of course defense has always been key.
they suck on defense Staunton river that's why they didn't win a championship.
 
in this day time with the spread offenses pass and run not just run 40 times and pass 3 or 4 times its hard to win like that and more athletic and fast and not just big 300 pounds but slow.thats how Hopewell won run 25 pass 15 or 20.
they suck on defense Staunton river that's why they didn't win a championship.
:D These posts are soooo hilarious. You originally said it was a balanced offense that made a team successful. Then you say in another post that it is defence that losses football games. So which one is it. I would like to hear your opinion on how this team won 26 games in 2 years. We all come on hear to talk about fall high school sports. We may disagree but we should never disrespect. Maybe when you have a better knowledge of the game and make some sense with your comments you should come back. Not mad at you thought :D
 
For the 2014 & 2015 championship games Lake Taylor was balanced though. The 2014 squad had 170 yards passing and 200+ yards rushing. The 2015 team had more passing yards (150) than rushing (134).

I think against state level competition balance is becoming more important at the higher levels. I don't mean 50/50 necessarily, but 70/30 is usually effective in the latter stages of the playoffs. Staunton River did a very good job the last 2 years with their system so I'm not being critical. Their season ended both years with close competitive games. It just seems like the championship comes down to balance more than it used to and of course defense has always been key.
Thanks Mike. Finally, someone gets it. This is exactly what I was saying from the beginning!
 
For the 2014 & 2015 championship games Lake Taylor was balanced though. The 2014 squad had 170 yards passing and 200+ yards rushing. The 2015 team had more passing yards (150) than rushing (134).

I think against state level competition balance is becoming more important at the higher levels. I don't mean 50/50 necessarily, but 70/30 is usually effective in the latter stages of the playoffs. Staunton River did a very good job the last 2 years with their system so I'm not being critical. Their season ended both years with close competitive games. It just seems like the championship comes down to balance more than it used to and of course defense has always been key.
Thanks Mike. Finally, someone gets it. This is exactly what I was saying from the beginning!
Actually Mike Salem said something that I've been saying all along that you didn't mention at all ".....and of course defense has always been key." My point is its not the balance of your offense but the balance of your offences/defense. You have to be equally as good on both sides of the ball. SR scored 35 against Heritage in the semifinals and lost. In the championship game against Heritage, Hopewells (spread) was limited to 2 touchdowns. There game winkng score came off a pick six (defense) Another important variable we have not discussed match ups. IMOA some teams just simply match up better better than other teams.
 
In 2016 reg season SR scored 47 and gave up 15 a game. In 2017 reg season SR scored 49 and gave up 14.

In the 2016 playoffs SR scored 58 and gave up 29. In 2017 playoffs they scored 53 and gave up 37.

I know SR faced tougher teams in the playoffs, but the offense scored a little more than their reg season avg both yrs. The problem was the defense which allowed the opponents more than double the avg given up during the reg season both years.

16 reg season 47-15
16 playoffs 58-29

17 reg season 49-14
17 playoffs 53-37

For comparison Salem both years:

16 reg season 47-14
16 playoffs 38-20

17 reg season 39-18
17 playoffs 47-23

I tried to do the math in my head so it may not be perfect, but it looks like SR's defense was the problem in the playoffs both years.

The old saying, defense wins championships, is shown in the difference between Staunton River's performance in the playoffs vs reg season. (I used Salem for comparison even though they are C4, but I think you would find similar results across Class lines)
 
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In 2016 reg season SR scored 47 and gave up 15 a game. In 2017 reg season SR scored 49 and gave up 14.

In the 2016 playoffs SR scored 58 and gave up 29. In 2017 playoffs they scored 53 and gave up 37.

I know SR faced tougher teams in the playoffs, but the offense scored a little more than their reg season avg both yrs. The problem was the defense which allowed the opponents more than double the avg given up during the reg season both years.

16 reg season 47-15
16 playoffs 58-29

17 reg season 49-14
17 playoffs 53-37

For comparison Salem both years:

16 reg season 47-14
16 playoffs 38-20

17 reg season 39-18
17 playoffs 47-23

I tried to do the math in my head so it may not be perfect, but it looks like SR's defense was the problem in the playoffs both years.

The old saying, defense wins championships, is shown in the difference between Staunton River's performance in the playoffs vs reg season. (I used Salem for comparison even though they are C4, but I think you would find similar results across Class lines)
That s all I've been trying to say. It's not the type or style of offense you run. *as long as it's successful. But the balance of a good offense and defense.
 
Actually Mike Salem said something that I've been saying all along that you didn't mention at all ".....and of course defense has always been key." My point is its not the balance of your offense but the balance of your offences/defense. You have to be equally as good on both sides of the ball. SR scored 35 against Heritage in the semifinals and lost. In the championship game against Heritage, Hopewells (spread) was limited to 2 touchdowns. There game winkng score came off a pick six (defense) Another important variable we have not discussed match ups. IMOA some teams just simply match up better better than other teams.
LOL I guess you missed the rest of the entire paragraph where Mike talked about how a balanced offense seems to matter more nowadays when the games matter more, i.e. state championships.

I know SR has had a great offense the past few years, I'm not discrediting that at all and of course defense is always key. My argument was that a less balanced offense makes it easier for a good defense to implement and execute a game plan.
 
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LOL I guess you missed the rest of the entire paragraph where Mike talked about how a balanced offense seems to matter more nowadays when the games matter more, i.e. state championships.

I know SR has had a great offense the past few years, I'm not discrediting that at all and of course defense is always key. My argument was that a less balanced offense makes it easier for a good defense to implement and execute a game plan.
I see all of your points and agree with many parts. As you mentioned, if a one dementional team that is run heavy (like SR) is so easly defenseable then how was SR putting up such insane numbers? I do agree that run heavy offenses like LB, WB and Heritage can be more easily prepaid for defensively. There plays where often times simple and predictable. Those coaches did do a good job of knowing there players strengths. They would run their athlete's in space (Heritage, WB), run with power (LB). Imo SR's single wing was anything but predictable. Now with that said, the times l did see SR struggle was at times play calling became predictable. SR problem was on the defensive side of the ball. They were much improved from 16 to 17 but lacked speed. Also most everyone played both sides of the ball due to lack of depth.
 
For the 2014 & 2015 championship games Lake Taylor was balanced though. The 2014 squad had 170 yards passing and 200+ yards rushing. The 2015 team had more passing yards (150) than rushing (134).

I think against state level competition balance is becoming more important at the higher levels. I don't mean 50/50 necessarily, but 70/30 is usually effective in the latter stages of the playoffs. Staunton River did a very good job the last 2 years with their system so I'm not being critical. Their season ended both years with close competitive games. It just seems like the championship comes down to balance more than it used to and of course defense has always been key.
Balanced offence and overall balance on both sides of the ball, if you play for the ring you've got to be good in all phases of the game, I'm an old offensive line coach, I cut my teeth on three yards and a cloud of dust, when MV went spread it changed my thinking, putting your athletes in space and speading the D works. And if you've got a defense that gives you the ball back with field position that's gravy on the biscuits. Numbers that allow you to play mostly one way helps,two way players get beat up and it hurts late in the season.
 
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