Dinwiddie playoff schedule might be Patrick Henry, Hanover then Varina. That's going to be tough
4B-D Football Race
- Thread starter EPJr
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Yes sir. I was really only talking about next week regarding Varina taking over the lead, but yes if Varina, Dinwiddie, and King George win out Varina will surely be the top seed. King George still has three games left with some decent rider points available.
We will know after this week what needs to be done. The road is always tough in the playoffs. Playing at home would make things easier. I don't like the idea of playing PH or Hanover; however, being on a side with Varina or KG would be just as bad. Either way you have to beat them all to advance.
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There will be some good teams going home early in the playoffs in 4b only one team will come out going to the state playoffs.
Who takes the top spot if Thomas Dale beats Dinwiddie and Highland Springs beats Varina?
Not quite sure yet. Too many games with rider points available to even guess. KG could get the top spot with a Dinwiddie and Varina loses, but they still would need things to fall just right.
PH isn’t as good as they were last year but still decent, not on Dinwiddie’s level. I’d much much rather play EV or PH than Matoaca or Powhatan.
I will have to run some numbers on that. I personally don't think Varina beats HS this yr but if they do that's 24 W 18. That's enough to put them on top for sure. 42 points
Once again one of my replies have disappeared.
I did a max points total for Salem and Louisa.
I have Louisa with max points 30
I have Salem at 29.8
So it looks like it might come down to an upset with a out of district game.
I did these numbers at 1:00am so I could have missed something
So when you say out of district upset, are you saying Louisa needs 1 win from either Courtland, Hugenot, or Massaponax
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I have Louisa as 29.4 (no more OOD wins) to 30.6 (6 OOD wins). I don't see Courtland beating EV or KG. Massaponax might? beat Stafford. Winless Huguenot has a shot against winless George Wythe. Each win would be worth .2 of a point.
We diverge on Salem greatly. HV would be worth 28, PH worth 38, 10 points from OOD teams winning out, and 8 points from district opponents beating each other (assuming Graham beats Blacksburg). They currently have 221 points + the 84 points remaining would be 305 or a score of 30.5. I think Franklin County wins out and William Fleming will go 1-1 at worse. Martinsburg (WV) wins out.
FC won't beat LB but a close game wouldn't surprise me as they both are content to just square up and swing haymakers on the ground all night long. Fleming is a crapshoot as SR and Byrd are highly unpredictable this season (much like Fleming) although I would probably believe 1-1 is the most likely outcome.
Franklin County gave Salem all they wanted. Glass beat LB. I think Salem beats Glass. LB is 7-1 but the games are close (relatively speaking). But then again, that's why they play the games.
Inside tip on Botty.... over 20 kids missed at least one day of practice with the flu this week.
Becareful what you wish for..."The Jungle" is not an easy place to play! We have a lot of noise makers
.Anyone giving Albemarle a chance to win? They won 23-7 last year and it appears both teams margin of victory are very similar on both sides of the ball.
I looked at that too. On paper, it does look like it could be a close one.
Would love to play there. Field doesn't matter, noise doesn't matter. Only the play on the field matters.Becareful what you wish for..."The Jungle" is not an easy place to play! We have a lot of noise makers
I'm not saying that they need one. Just that a couple OOD teams that Louisa defeated or Salem defeated could lose a game that we all expect them to win. Will probably be the deciding factor. In district upsets won't matter.
Although the "Jungle" is a raucous place to play I don't think a 10 time State Championship team will be too rattled. Home field advantage is always nice though. I did a quick check and Louisa is 2-2 in their last four home playoff games. Losses to EV (mud bowl) and Patrick Henry-Ashland. Would like to see a Salem vs. Louisa regional championship game.Becareful what you wish for..."The Jungle" is not an easy place to play! We have a lot of noise makers
QB has a good arm and his receivers are really tall and physical. Because of that in itself KG will be tough to knock out.
Salem has an 18-11 Away record in the playoffs FWIW.
Just for comparison's sake, other Away records:
Louisa: 4-10
Dinwiddie: 6-6
Lake Taylor: 1-7
Varina: 9-12
ECG: 3-11
GW: 6-19
Not making anything out of anyone else's numbers, just trying to put in perspective that Salem really doesn't care where a game is played. If Salem wins enough games to meet Louisa and if Louisa wins enough games to meet Salem and if Louisa is a better team and out-executes Salem then the location won't matter and they'll march on with the W.
And before anyone asks, these are true Away games played at the field of the opponent, this does not include Neutral site games like state titles or how a lot of old playoff games were done.
Just for comparison's sake, other Away records:
Louisa: 4-10
Dinwiddie: 6-6
Lake Taylor: 1-7
Varina: 9-12
ECG: 3-11
GW: 6-19
Not making anything out of anyone else's numbers, just trying to put in perspective that Salem really doesn't care where a game is played. If Salem wins enough games to meet Louisa and if Louisa wins enough games to meet Salem and if Louisa is a better team and out-executes Salem then the location won't matter and they'll march on with the W.
And before anyone asks, these are true Away games played at the field of the opponent, this does not include Neutral site games like state titles or how a lot of old playoff games were done.
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Salem is lightyears better than they were at the start of the season... so many personnel changes on both sides of the ball. Since week 2 and they are legitimately REALLY, REALLY good and I am always a hard man to please when it comes to Salem's standard and evaluating level of play.
This is the fastest, most athletic Salem team I have EVER seen but they are also extremely disciplined now and make very few mistakes as well. Legitimately just get significantly better every week in so many areas.
Also, Peyton Lewis has UNREAL talent and it's pretty incredible to watch.
Are they getting better or is the competition just getting worse? Nobody on that schedule is anywhere close to the first team they played. Now,it is a good thing that they don’t have eight players going both ways like they did against Martinsburg, but judging a team as better based off playing lesser competition is not being real with yourself. Every team should get better as the season goes on, but to live in the moment,and say this is the fastest, most athletic team Salem has ever had is downright wrong. They have had far better overall talent. A few of those state champion teams were pretty darn fast too! they’re going to face some pretty fast teams,and very talented teams in the playoffs, but I can tell you, and this is coming from a Highland Springs fan, you’re not going to see a faster more athletic team than Varina will put on the field. I’m not saying they will face Varina,but I will say,any team that faces Varina will be facing an uphill battle. Good luck to everybody…the playoffs are right around the corner.,
The 3 posters doing Salems evaluation are very knowledgeable and experienced. Their evaluation factors in the competition. As to being fastest Salem team that's just a fact. Notice we didn't say best Salem team we said fastest. The speed is found at the skilled positions especially tailback and outside linebacker Peyton Lewis. Peyton won State 4a 100 meters as a sophomore. I think Salem fans are pretty good at evaluating Salem teams. They know what Salem will face in the playoffs and what it takes to win a State title. This team is approaching the level necessary to compete with the 4a's best. They might be a year away since so many of the players are underclassmen but it's getting there.
Both are true. The competition has obviously been a lot weaker, but Salem has also made huge improvements. I don't think Salem has ever had a faster team. Their 4x is the QB, WR/S, RB/LB, and DB. I would like to see continued improvement in OL/DL play, but I'm very happy with the progress and continuing to shuffle personnel to find the right fit. I have no idea what will happen in the playoffs, but this team has lots of potential as I have said all along. It's just a matter of putting everything in the right place.
No one has said or insinuated otherwise. All that's been said is Salem is not scared of playing anyone, home or away.
Should be a great game. Albemarle will be first team Louisa has played that can match up on the perimeter and at QB. I personally think Louisa has an advantage in the trenches on both sides. Albemarle has better LBs. Albemarle broke Louisa's 29 game district win streak last year and the game is in the Jungle this year. Something tells me Louisa will have a ton of extra motivation for this one. I'll take Louisa 28-24.
Salem virtually always improves a lot more than other teams throughout the season. So much of their offense is based on very precise timing and steps which take awhile to get right. They also had far more personnel and position moves early in the season than I can remember, on offense and defense.
Several years ago they list 49-12 to Blacksburg during the regular season... just a massacre. Then Salem went on to beat Blacksburg on the road in the playoffs. The year before that they lost at home to Amherst in week 1 and then went on to win the state championship that season.
Peyton Lewis also did not play at all against Martinsburg and calling him a "game-changer" is actually an understatement.
As for the speed I was talking about, it is really hard to debate this. As someone else mentioned all the members of Salem's record-breaking 4x100m team are starters on the football team.
Josiah Persinger, a starting corner as a sophomore, was the fastest 4A freshman in the 100m this past spring by a very large margin. He was also eight fastest among all classes. Peyton Lewis broke Salem's all-time 100m and 200m records as a sophomore and was the fastest in the entire state, regardless of class. He is also close to 200 pounds and had broken his ankle badly only seven months earlier... he has potential Olympic-type speed and he is an LB on defense.
QB DaRon Wilson ran in the 4.4s at several large camps this past summer and was the fastest out of all players tested. Jonathan Vernon can fly, Josiah Moyer has pretty good speed and so does Chris Cole, Jaelyn Allen and Chris Martin, just to name a few.
Shoot, Isaiah Barlow is a defensive end and he would be the fastest player on a ton of 4A schools.
I am partial to several past teams at Salem that were extremely fast/athletic but this year's team has them all beat in this department.
The team still has some weaknesses but this is a major, major strength they have.
Again, I wasn't trying to have a commentary on anyone else's numbers. Winning on the road in the POs is difficult for the very reason that of the teams I listed most tend to play 1-3 games at home before hitting the road which means your competition is typically more and more difficult which makes those wins harder to come by. I only threw in Glass and GW because they are old, historical programs with good winning traditions so I knew I could probably count up quite a few games for the purposes of creating a more sound stat to present.
My friend, nobody is a bigger critic of Salem than Salem fans. People aren't saying this stuff lightly, it's just the truth and I would tend to agree this is likely the single fastest team Salem's ever put out on the field, not that they're necessarily the "best". To the other point, as Shabutie said, Salem just works differently as the season progresses.
Since 2000:
August/September losses: 18
October losses: 13
November (regular season) losses: 2
Obviously, when the season starts affects this to a degree and not all of November is for the regular season but I'm just trying to paint a picture that Salem legitimately does become a different beast later in the season. It's considerably rare that Salem comes out of the gate looking in mid-season or late-season form. Salem is just flat out easier to beat earlier in the year and much more difficult in the playoffs, hence the ten state titles and all the history.
I agree with you. I’ve watched every game but 1 in person from ‘86-‘01 then marriage happened. So now only a few each year but skill wise across the board this is the fastest Salem team.
PH next week will be the best indicator as to how much the o-line has improved since Martinsburg. If they struggle region final may be as far as they go. If they look more like a typical Salem o-line then it’s no reason for them to not be playing for a title.
Louisa put on another clinic 69-34 Louisa offense is RED hot. 4th game over 60 points, only Massaponax was closer than 30 points.
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