This is an interesting rivalry as both teams are traditionally strong and well respected. Amherst won last years game in a track meet and exposed some early Spartan weaknesses. Salem adjusted and as we all know went on a 13 game winning streak ending in a state title.
There are several significant differences between the 2016 and 2017 editions of these two teams and here are some points to ponder.
Salem:
1. Ramsey has returned to his defensive end spot. He will maintain the edge and will improve the Spartan pass rush.
2. Salem's defensive backs have matured and are a very capable unit. Mike, I agree with you on Luke Owen. I have looked at the State Final game numerous times and this young man did an exceptional job in coverage against the Dinwiddie receiving corp. Although, Pope did beat him a few times he displayed a ton of grit and played much bigger than his size. In fact, I thought he was Salem's MVP in the final.
3. Salem has a new guy under center, so I look for the Spartans to do what they do best and pound the rock up the middle against a young Lancer defense. I am sure they will take a few deep shots to Tucker especially if Amherst pushes up to play the run. Teams will either double Tucker or play off, so don't be surprised if Salem utilizes short passes in space or isolation type screens to get him in the game.
4. The loss of Fox (tackling machine) in the middle of the defense will hurt and the Spartan linebackers need time to gel. They are loaded on the d-line which will make the learning curve much easier.
Amherst:
1. DSH, already pointed it out, but I will re-emphasize it. The Lancer lost a ton of playmakers on offense and you just don't beat Salem without having guys who can stretch their defense. Amherst must combat Salem's ball possession by striking quickly.
2. Amherst had a very balanced attack last year. Even with a talented quarterback (dual threat) the Lancers must make Salem respect the run. Can they do that with new faces toting the mail.
3. The field position game will be key for the Lancers. If Salem scores the Lancers will have to drive the length of the field on each possession as the Spartan kicker, Nate Craft will likely put the ball in the end zone or out on each attempt. Amherst must make stops, force Salem to punt and take advantage of a short field.
4. Defensively, the Lancers must gamble. They will have to load the box and play 1 v. 1 on the outside. Run blitzes, sound linebacker play and sure tackling are a must. If the Lancers can force the Spartans to run east to west their chances improve, but more importantly they need to force a few turnovers.
With all this being said I honestly don't think the young and talented Lancers have the maturity to defeat the well oiled machine of Salem. The Lancers will struggle to stop the run and will wear down quickly. When you combine the power running game and one of the top defenses in Class 4 this season, I don't expect the Spartans to allow this game to move into warp speed; therefore, eliminating the Lancers only saving grace.
The Lancers play hard, but Salem wins this one in workmanlike fashion 35-7.
