Here we are in February with Superbowl in our rear view mirrors... NFL is now over, college has been over and we are now looking towards the 2017 season rather than looking back at the 2016 season. We don't have a lot to talk about at this point in time other than recruiting so I started thinking to myself, is there anything that can give us a look into the future? I'm one of those guys that likes to look for trends in sports... I'm also a stat guy, it's just my thing. So I did some studying of how the champions fared the year before in an effort to determine who our 2017 champion will be... Here is what we learned.
8 previous Class 4 champions were repeat winners which would apply of course to Salem.
7 previous Class 4 champions made it no further than the second round a year before winning it all. That would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Charlottesville, Grafton, Heritage-Leesburg, Heritage-Newport News, Millbrook, Monacan, Patrick Henry-Ashland.
7 previous Class 4 champions made it no further than the first round a year before winning it all. That would apply to Courtland, Deep Creek, Denbigh, George Washington, King George, Kings Fork, Loudoun Valley, Louisa, Powhatan, Pulaski, Smithfield, Warhill
4 previous Class 4 champions did not make the playoffs a year before winning the championship. This would apply to Caroline, Carroll, Churchland, EC Glass, Fauquier, Great Bridge, Hanover, Huguenot, James Wood, Jefferson Forest, John Bassett, John Handley, Kettle Run, Liberty-Bealeton, Liberty Christian, Loudoun, Midlothian, Park View-Sterling, Riverside, Sherando and Woodrow Wilson.
2 previous Class 4 champions lost the state championship a year before winning it. This of course would apply to Dinwiddie.
1 previous champion lost in the state semifinal the year before winning it all. This would apply to Dominion and Lafayette.
1 previous champion made it no further than the third round the year before winning it all. This would apply to Eastern View, Lake Taylor, William Byrd and Woodgrove.
There have only been four previous champions who did not qualify for the playoffs the year before they won it all. The last to do so was Briar Woods in 2010.
There have been six multiple champions in Class 4 with Salem having the most wins with 8 state titles.
The six multiple champions have combined for 21 of the 31 Class 4 championships.
Of the 16 schools to win Class 4 titles, only 7 remain; Amherst, Dinwiddie, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Park View-Sterling, Powhatan and Salem
There have been 17 champions in the 2000's with just 9 schools taking them.
8 of the last 12 champions reached no less than the third round the year before winning it all. This would apply to Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Salem, William Byrd and Woodgrove.
7 of those 8 would reach the state championship game and this of course would apply to Dinwiddie and Salem.
14 of the last 19 Class 4 champions had at least 8 wins during the regular season a year before winning the state title. This would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Grafton, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Louisa, Millbrook, Monacan, Powhatan, Salem, Smithfield, William Byrd and Woodgrove.
8 of the last 9 Class 4 champions had a 27.7 rating or higher the year before they won the state title. This would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Heritage-Newport News, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Louisa, Millbrook, Monacan, Salem, William Byrd and Woodgrove
So what does this mean? It means that the trends tell us more than likely Salem will repeat or Dinwiddie will win in 2017... If either falter however, then your champion will likely be one of the following... Dominion, Eastern View, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, William Byrd or Woodgrove
8 previous Class 4 champions were repeat winners which would apply of course to Salem.
7 previous Class 4 champions made it no further than the second round a year before winning it all. That would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Charlottesville, Grafton, Heritage-Leesburg, Heritage-Newport News, Millbrook, Monacan, Patrick Henry-Ashland.
7 previous Class 4 champions made it no further than the first round a year before winning it all. That would apply to Courtland, Deep Creek, Denbigh, George Washington, King George, Kings Fork, Loudoun Valley, Louisa, Powhatan, Pulaski, Smithfield, Warhill
4 previous Class 4 champions did not make the playoffs a year before winning the championship. This would apply to Caroline, Carroll, Churchland, EC Glass, Fauquier, Great Bridge, Hanover, Huguenot, James Wood, Jefferson Forest, John Bassett, John Handley, Kettle Run, Liberty-Bealeton, Liberty Christian, Loudoun, Midlothian, Park View-Sterling, Riverside, Sherando and Woodrow Wilson.
2 previous Class 4 champions lost the state championship a year before winning it. This of course would apply to Dinwiddie.
1 previous champion lost in the state semifinal the year before winning it all. This would apply to Dominion and Lafayette.
1 previous champion made it no further than the third round the year before winning it all. This would apply to Eastern View, Lake Taylor, William Byrd and Woodgrove.
There have only been four previous champions who did not qualify for the playoffs the year before they won it all. The last to do so was Briar Woods in 2010.
There have been six multiple champions in Class 4 with Salem having the most wins with 8 state titles.
The six multiple champions have combined for 21 of the 31 Class 4 championships.
Of the 16 schools to win Class 4 titles, only 7 remain; Amherst, Dinwiddie, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Park View-Sterling, Powhatan and Salem
There have been 17 champions in the 2000's with just 9 schools taking them.
8 of the last 12 champions reached no less than the third round the year before winning it all. This would apply to Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Salem, William Byrd and Woodgrove.
7 of those 8 would reach the state championship game and this of course would apply to Dinwiddie and Salem.
14 of the last 19 Class 4 champions had at least 8 wins during the regular season a year before winning the state title. This would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Grafton, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Louisa, Millbrook, Monacan, Powhatan, Salem, Smithfield, William Byrd and Woodgrove.
8 of the last 9 Class 4 champions had a 27.7 rating or higher the year before they won the state title. This would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Heritage-Newport News, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Louisa, Millbrook, Monacan, Salem, William Byrd and Woodgrove
So what does this mean? It means that the trends tell us more than likely Salem will repeat or Dinwiddie will win in 2017... If either falter however, then your champion will likely be one of the following... Dominion, Eastern View, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, William Byrd or Woodgrove