Class 6A Semifinal Rankings and Playoff Predictions

[PhoenixHS]

Firstly, here are my personal rankings of all the teams still in the semifinals
1: Oscar Smith
2: Madison
3: Freedom
4: Battlefield
5: Manchester
6: Robinson
7: Lake Braddock
8: Centreville
9: West Potomac
10: South County
11: Osbourn
12: Western Branch
13: Westfield
14: James River
15: South Lakes
16: Unity Reed

Secondly, instead of going in depth to each game like I was planning, I'm just going to give a summary of each region

Region A

There is no doubt that the final for this region will be a game between Smith and Manchester. Never mind that Western Branch is the 2nd seed, as they haven't exactly looked impressive against weaker teams and showed that they have no chance of competing with Smith. Manchester isn't Smith, but they're still one of the top teams in the state, and I find it hard to say that a WB team has any chance here. As for a final, aside from the game against SJB, I have yet to see Smith actually play in a game they have a chance at losing, and while I'm not an expert on Region A, the Tigers seem to have a phenomenal strength of schedule, with 40 point wins over King's Fork and Phoebus. I honestly don't see any team challenging them on their way to a state title this season.

Region B

This region is a great example of "any team, any time". Unity Reed didn't let a 36-0 loss change their attitude to Patriot, and it's moments like these that are the reason why I love HS football. That being said, Freedom is Freedom, and I don't see Unity Reed worming their way out of a loss this week. I would compare Freedom to Smith if the Eagles hadn't taken an upset loss to Gar-field earlier in the season. Since then, however, the Eagles have looked to be one of the most dominant teams on offense, and their defense isn't that far behind. Battlefield, on the other hand has been the exact opposite. Close games against Patriot and Champe show that Battlefield is vulnerable, but the Bobcats keep going 1-0 every week, and I respect that in my rankings. Osbourn doesn't have the strongest of offenses, but makes up for it in defensive play. My best guess is that this will be a low-scoring game similar to the 16-0 loss to Battlefield earlier in the season. An upset isn't out of the question, but I would put only a 15% chance of it occurring.

Region C

My home region is continuing to show that it has more good teams than any other region, but is lacking an overwhelmingly great team such as Freedom, Madison, Smith, etc. West Potomac is the best example of this, as wins over former region favorite SoCo and Washington Post #17 Fairfax, as well as SoCo's struggle over West Springfield and Robinson's loss to Fairfax earlier in the year show that the championship is still wide open. First off, Robinson vs SoCo was the former expectation for the region championship, and these two teams have been through a lot since then. SoCo's offense has been MIA since West Po's game against them (minus a 30-10 win over the region's current mediocre punching bag AC), and if SoCo can't stop the run at Robinson, they're going to need that offense to keep pace. Robinson has been systematically dismantling every team they come across not named Lake Braddock or Fairfax, and their offense is hard to stop. That being said, stop or slow down the run and the team will fall apart (see Fairfax's 52-28 win; having to deal with Tony Rojas in practice every day will create a very strong run defense). The key to winning here for SoCo will be limiting Robinson's run game (something the Stallions failed to do against West Po, allowing 330 yds on the ground), and for the Rams, getting into the backfield and shutting down the deep ball should be enough to throw the Stallions off their rhythm. The second game is one of the most intriguing matchups in the playoffs (yeah, I'm biased), as perennial below-average West Potomac finally gets on the right track vs currently under-rated Lake Braddock. LB has been incredibly strong, only losing to Madison and a 7 minute 21 point comeback by Robinson to eke out a win for the Rams. It was after that game that I should have realized that this team is scary, and frankly my favorite to win the region. They are a fairly balanced team with a strong defense, which makes them fairly hard to scheme against defensively, but the Wolverines feed on the energy from the crowd at away games, being 3-0 in homecoming games this season and generally having their best games away. If the Wolverine team that beat SoCo at SoCo and Fairfax in Fairfax shows up in Burke, this will 100% be the game to watch this week.

Region D

If the previous region was the most exciting, this one is the most boring to me. Madison and Centreville should both win their respective games easily, as both teams combined allowed 6 points to their respective opponents in the semifinals during the regular season. However, any team at any time can win. Just ask anybody who supports Patriot. Madison and Centreville have played each other before this season, ending in a 21-17 win for Madison, but it was 21-3 at the end of the 3rd, and while the score makes them look competitive, I'm not yet convinced that they're all that. That being said, a win against Madison would change my mind. Either way, I don't see anything exciting happening in the region this week.

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

Firstly, here are my personal rankings of all the teams still in the semifinals
1: Oscar Smith
2: Madison
3: Freedom
4: Battlefield
5: Manchester
6: Robinson
7: Lake Braddock
8: Centreville
9: West Potomac
10: South County
11: Osbourn
12: Western Branch
13: Westfield
14: James River
15: South Lakes
16: Unity Reed

Secondly, instead of going in depth to each game like I was planning, I'm just going to give a summary of each region

Region A

There is no doubt that the final for this region will be a game between Smith and Manchester. Never mind that Western Branch is the 2nd seed, as they haven't exactly looked impressive against weaker teams and showed that they have no chance of competing with Smith. Manchester isn't Smith, but they're still one of the top teams in the state, and I find it hard to say that a WB team has any chance here. As for a final, aside from the game against SJB, I have yet to see Smith actually play in a game they have a chance at losing, and while I'm not an expert on Region A, the Tigers seem to have a phenomenal strength of schedule, with 40 point wins over King's Fork and Phoebus. I honestly don't see any team challenging them on their way to a state title this season.

Region B

This region is a great example of "any team, any time". Unity Reed didn't let a 36-0 loss change their attitude to Patriot, and it's moments like these that are the reason why I love HS football. That being said, Freedom is Freedom, and I don't see Unity Reed worming their way out of a loss this week. I would compare Freedom to Smith if the Eagles hadn't taken an upset loss to Gar-field earlier in the season. Since then, however, the Eagles have looked to be one of the most dominant teams on offense, and their defense isn't that far behind. Battlefield, on the other hand has been the exact opposite. Close games against Patriot and Champe show that Battlefield is vulnerable, but the Bobcats keep going 1-0 every week, and I respect that in my rankings. Osbourn doesn't have the strongest of offenses, but makes up for it in defensive play. My best guess is that this will be a low-scoring game similar to the 16-0 loss to Battlefield earlier in the season. An upset isn't out of the question, but I would put only a 15% chance of it occurring.

Region C

My home region is continuing to show that it has more good teams than any other region, but is lacking an overwhelmingly great team such as Freedom, Madison, Smith, etc. West Potomac is the best example of this, as wins over former region favorite SoCo and Washington Post #17 Fairfax, as well as SoCo's struggle over West Springfield and Robinson's loss to Fairfax earlier in the year show that the championship is still wide open. First off, Robinson vs SoCo was the former expectation for the region championship, and these two teams have been through a lot since then. SoCo's offense has been MIA since West Po's game against them (minus a 30-10 win over the region's current mediocre punching bag AC), and if SoCo can't stop the run at Robinson, they're going to need that offense to keep pace. Robinson has been systematically dismantling every team they come across not named Lake Braddock or Fairfax, and their offense is hard to stop. That being said, stop or slow down the run and the team will fall apart (see Fairfax's 52-28 win; having to deal with Tony Rojas in practice every day will create a very strong run defense). The key to winning here for SoCo will be limiting Robinson's run game (something the Stallions failed to do against West Po, allowing 330 yds on the ground), and for the Rams, getting into the backfield and shutting down the deep ball should be enough to throw the Stallions off their rhythm. The second game is one of the most intriguing matchups in the playoffs (yeah, I'm biased), as perennial below-average West Potomac finally gets on the right track vs currently under-rated Lake Braddock. LB has been incredibly strong, only losing to Madison and a 7 minute 21 point comeback by Robinson to eke out a win for the Rams. It was after that game that I should have realized that this team is scary, and frankly my favorite to win the region. They are a fairly balanced team with a strong defense, which makes them fairly hard to scheme against defensively, but the Wolverines feed on the energy from the crowd at away games, being 3-0 in homecoming games this season and generally having their best games away. If the Wolverine team that beat SoCo at SoCo and Fairfax in Fairfax shows up in Burke, this will 100% be the game to watch this week.

Region D

If the previous region was the most exciting, this one is the most boring to me. Madison and Centreville should both win their respective games easily, as both teams combined allowed 6 points to their respective opponents in the semifinals during the regular season. However, any team at any time can win. Just ask anybody who supports Patriot. Madison and Centreville have played each other before this season, ending in a 21-17 win for Madison, but it was 21-3 at the end of the 3rd, and while the score makes them look competitive, I'm not yet convinced that they're all that. That being said, a win against Madison would change my mind. Either way, I don't see anything exciting happening in the region this week.

Great write up. I hope more people start contributing like this for the Class 6 thread!!

for each Class, A, James River win over Thomas Dale was a surprise to our region. After watching the Dale vs Manchester scrimmage, I thought it would have been a 50/50 chance for either of those teams to be in the Regional Final. SO, Friday's game has a bit of mystery to it for me. AND traditionally, Smith seems to have the biggest problem during their week #2 playoff opponent!!! They have had too many close calls & OT games this second round that I would had like to have seen!!

Manchester has a monster @ OL that just returned from injury which will definitely help improve their team. I am expecting them to meet Smith too. BUT, Western Branch has athletes to match up well vs the Lancers. That game will be won in the trenches. IF WB decides to run, I think they could pull it off. Midlothian beat Manchester by forcing them to put an extra man in the box, then they were able to throw very well against them for the big come back win.

Class B should come down to Freedom vs Battlefield. After watching the Gar-field vs Freedom game, it looked like the GF Defense rattled Freedom's QB a bit. The edge & LB defenders came up with big hits & rushes which affected the accuracy of the Lancer's passing game. What really surprised me more was that Freedom's Defense wasn't stronger to stop GF. BUT their defense had been the problem vs teams like Massaponax, Colonial Forge, etc during the playoffs in years past.

Class C is the most Interesting to me as well. A lot of possibilities but I think from games I watched on NFHS Network, that Robinson showed a more aggressive Defense coming off the edges & protecting the flats compared to their previous teams. I expect them to handle South County this time around. For Lake Braddock, if they play Robinson, hey have to avoid getting worn down by them. That means stopping their sustained drives. I didn't see their game vs Fairfax but do you think LB can do the same thing to them?

Class D, I also agree that it's kinda boring but Madison likes to keep things low key. I have them coming out of that Region

The Region C/D winner seems wide open though. It will be fun to watch.

 

[PhoenixHS]

Robinson's greatest strength is their offensive playstyle, and I think the slow methodical run game is an excellent strategy for HS football. As for LB, they allowed just 14 points over 3 quarters. Robinson won because they switched tempo quickly and caught the Bruin defense off guard. Anything can happen in the game, but I think that LB has proven that they can slow and stop the Robinson run game down. I think if LB can get past the Wolverines, they have a solid shot at going to the state semis, as I think they can handle either Robinson or SoCo, although I agree that unless SoCo's defense shows up in a way they haven't this season or their offense manages to show up on the field, Robinson should take that game by multiple touchdowns.