History Says 2019 Class 3 Champion Is...

[CRF4Dan]

As many of you know, I do this about the same time every year... I like trends and stats... This year I did it again... I looked at previous champions, what they did the year before in order to give us an idea of who will win it all...

Keep in mind this all in good fun...

Class 3 Trends-
6 of the last 8 champions have played in the state semifinals the year before.
5 of the last 8 champions won 9 or more games the year before.
6 of the last 8 champions finished 8th or higher in ratings the year before.

Class 3 Odds-
17 previous champions played in the state semifinals the year before winning it all...
17 previous champions won 8 or more games the year before winning it all...
8 previous champions were either in the top 5 in ratings or worse than 12th.

Class 3 Facts-
7 previous champions made it no further than the state semifinals before winning it all.
8 previous champions had 9 wins the year before winning it all.
1st or 5th seed is the sweet spot to win it all as teams that finished in that spot went on to win it all the next year.

So just who is the team that fits the best among these trends, probabilities and facts?

Among the trends it is a tie between Phoebus, Heritage and Goochland...
Among the odds it is a tie between Phoebus, Heritage and Lord Botetourt...
Among the facts it is Lafayette...

Now there have been 12 instances of a team winning their second state title while a member of Class/Division 3. A year later it would be a 1st or 2nd time champion winning it all... So that would exclude Phoebus, Heritage and Goochland leaving us with...

Lafayette or Lord Botetourt to claim the Class 3 State Title in 2019.

 

[mike salem]

As many of you know, I do this about the same time every year... I like trends and stats... This year I did it again... I looked at previous champions, what they did the year before in order to give us an idea of who will win it all...

Keep in mind this all in good fun...

Class 3 Trends-
6 of the last 8 champions have played in the state semifinals the year before.
5 of the last 8 champions won 9 or more games the year before.
6 of the last 8 champions finished 8th or higher in ratings the year before.

Class 3 Odds-
17 previous champions played in the state semifinals the year before winning it all...
17 previous champions won 8 or more games the year before winning it all...
8 previous champions were either in the top 5 in ratings or worse than 12th.

Class 3 Facts-
7 previous champions made it no further than the state semifinals before winning it all.
8 previous champions had 9 wins the year before winning it all.
1st or 5th seed is the sweet spot to win it all as teams that finished in that spot went on to win it all the next year.

So just who is the team that fits the best among these trends, probabilities and facts?

Among the trends it is a tie between Phoebus, Heritage and Goochland...
Among the odds it is a tie between Phoebus, Heritage and Lord Botetourt...
Among the facts it is Lafayette...

Now there have been 12 instances of a team winning their second state title while a member of Class/Division 3. A year later it would be a 1st or 2nd time champion winning it all... So that would exclude Phoebus, Heritage and Goochland leaving us with...

Lafayette or Lord Botetourt to claim the Class 3 State Title in 2019.

When I read the headline, the first 2 teams that came to mind were Lord Botetourt and Lafayette. IDK if that will be the final 2, but if I were a betting man that's where my money would be. Good topic and insight.

 

[CRF4Dan]

When I read the headline, the first 2 teams that came to mind were Lord Botetourt and Lafayette. IDK if that will be the final 2, but if I were a betting man that's where my money would be. Good topic and insight.

Thanks Mike. Just something fun I like to play with as we get closer to the season. Both teams have been close so it's not a stretch.