Is 4C the toughest region in the state top to bottom?
- Thread starter bceagle47
- Start date
This calls for going back to the East/West playoffs. It wouldn't solve A/B compared to C/D except Final 4, but it wouldn't be just 1 region
Just curious why you think 1-2 would be a coin flip and "you have 3-6 from 4B winning". If it's your 4B bias and pride, I respect that. However, a quick glance at available objective data would not support this.
If you line up 4B and 4C 1st-8th and pit 1vs1, 2vs2, etc....
- Using Power Points, 4C wins ALL 8 head to heads.
- Using MaxPreps Ranking, 4C wins ALL 8 head to heads
Louisa and Monacan have beaten some of the better C5 and C6 teams. I put little stock in MaxPreps and Power Points are not very reliable if you are forced to play a district schedule.
I'm a 4D guy so no I'm not being bias. The gap between Broad Run, Tuscarora is huge in my opinion. Tuscarora has played great with the exception of barely beating an avg Woodgrove team by their standards. Liberty looks to spoil the party. After that I have Sherando. Sherando usually has a solid team. I expect them to be a tough out and will beat Millbrook handily in a rematch if they have their players back from injury. The lower part of 4C won the games that they were suppose to win with the exception of Millbrook losing to Handley and Loudoun Co.
Louisa Co. vs Broad Run
My picks for State title game. Louisa has a big win over Massaponax who is better than everyone on Broad Run's schedule except Stone Bridge. Broad Run wins tonight over a very good Stone Bridge They become the obvious favorite in this match up.
Monacan vs Liberty
I've got Monacan in this one. Monican's lone loss was tho Manchester 34-12. I don't see anyone in D4 beating Manchester. After that schedule looks shaky. Liberty best win was 20-13 over Sherando. I can see Sherando winning a rematch here too.
Eastern View vs Tuscarora
Eastern View was rolling until they ran into Spotsy last week. Eastern View came up short last yr vs Lake Taylor in the State Semi. This would be a very interesting match up. Both teams have one game on schedule where I scratch my head. Spotsy for EV and Woodgrove for Tusky. I give Tusky the edge. They played Broad Run and the game could have gone either way.
Spotsylvania vs Sherando
Big win for Spots vs EV. Sherando big win was over Handley in OT. If Sherando has most of their players back they win. If not I think Spotsy pulls off the upset.
Dinwiddie vs Millbrook
I have Dinwiddie winning this one. Millbrook has big win vs Sherando but like I said before Sherando takes the rematch.
PH vs Handley
I believe this would be a close game. I'm taking PH by 7
Power points is just a guide to rank teams for the playoffs that play against mostly common teams. Does not translate between regions. If we just went by Power Points and Maxpreps
No road team would ever win in the playoffs.Power points is just a guide to rank teams for the playoffs that play against mostly common teams. Does not translate between regions. If we just went by Power Points and Maxpreps
As I said, neither system is perfect, but they provide the most objective perspective we have. If we just went strictly by our gut, our geographic biases, etc., our favorite teams would never lose in the playoffs either
Just wanted to point out, Tuscarora beat Stafford 31-13. Ponax beat Stafford 58-0 and had 40 at halftime.
I disagree a bit about Broad Run beating Stone Bridge. That's the biggest rivalry game in that area and is always a 50/50 game. Last year is the perfect example, with BR winning the regular season game and SB winning the playoff rematch. Win or lose, I don't think it would make a difference in a potential BR/Louisa prediction unless it's a lopsided blowout win.
Appreciate the detail @SFUWO.
Tonight will tell us more about Broad Run. We know they are solid and beating Stone Bridge would have to make them state favorite. The 4C NWD is difficult to forecast. My gut tells me there is little separation between 1-5 in NWD. They are all solid teams but not at the level of Broad Run and Tuscarora. Tuscarora has been playing lights out since the Woodgrove game. Last nights game was the 3rd game in 4 weeks where they were up 42-0 in the 2nd quarter and no starters saw the field after half time. They sorted out the mistakes and penalties that hurt them again Broad Run and Woodgrove. The also soundly beat decent Loudoun Valley and Musselman teams both by 35-0 and Briar Woods 31-7. If Tusky plays like they have been they will be a tough out in the playoffs.
Tonight will tell us more about Broad Run. We know they are solid and beating Stone Bridge would have to make them state favorite. The 4C NWD is difficult to forecast. My gut tells me there is little separation between 1-5 in NWD. They are all solid teams but not at the level of Broad Run and Tuscarora. Tuscarora has been playing lights out since the Woodgrove game. Last nights game was the 3rd game in 4 weeks where they were up 42-0 in the 2nd quarter and no starters saw the field after half time. They sorted out the mistakes and penalties that hurt them again Broad Run and Woodgrove. The also soundly beat decent Loudoun Valley and Musselman teams both by 35-0 and Briar Woods 31-7. If Tusky plays like they have been they will be a tough out in the playoffs.
So if Sherando hangs more than 16 against KR by halftime should we start second guessing Louisa’s credibility?
@VAtuffTurf go right ahead, it gets questioned regardless. Let's see if KR doesn't score at all against Sherando as well.
Chill, @LionNation540. He was trying to make the point that halftime scores are much of an argument. Did you read the post he was commenting on? No reason to take this thing to 11.
@VAHSFootballFan no he wasn't. He was replying to my post. He has also said these. He likes talking about halftime scores while cherry picking the context of them:
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Just so you know; the last game Woodgrove was completely healthy was against Tuscarora. When they were healthy they were the Woodgrove team you are accustomed to seeing.
I know about their history .Without looking it up I believe there has been a few yrs that they split games
We would be blinded by bias thenAs I said, neither system is perfect, but they provide the most objective perspective we have. If we just went strictly by our gut, our geographic biases, etc., our favorite teams would never lose in the playoffs either
I’m not saying KR won’t score on Sherando. I’ve also never said Sherando is on Louisa’s level this year. It’s been implied by many on here that Louisa is a top 3-5 team in 4A. In my opinion, Sherando hasn’t received much credit as you always claim your Lions never do.
Take for example how many still have Salem ranked in the top 10 when, in my opinion, Sherando had a better showing against Martinsburg when they didn’t have their starting qb or division I athlete Lawson playing.
It’s fine though, sleep on those boys that have battled injuries and are getting healthy at the right time. Again, this is not a championship caliber team but will certainly not be an easy out.
And yes, my point is that Louisa is getting a lot of hype on here about this and that. You brought attention to the halftime scores regarding those teams with ‘Ponax because Louisa beat them. I’m only trying to bring discussion about if we were to compare a halftime score of a common opponent with Louisa.
I bet dollars to doughnuts that even if Sherando whips KR worse than Louisa then you’d still say something like Louisa would be a 3 touchdown favorite against an opponent like Sherando.
Take for example how many still have Salem ranked in the top 10 when, in my opinion, Sherando had a better showing against Martinsburg when they didn’t have their starting qb or division I athlete Lawson playing.
It’s fine though, sleep on those boys that have battled injuries and are getting healthy at the right time. Again, this is not a championship caliber team but will certainly not be an easy out.
And yes, my point is that Louisa is getting a lot of hype on here about this and that. You brought attention to the halftime scores regarding those teams with ‘Ponax because Louisa beat them. I’m only trying to bring discussion about if we were to compare a halftime score of a common opponent with Louisa.
I bet dollars to doughnuts that even if Sherando whips KR worse than Louisa then you’d still say something like Louisa would be a 3 touchdown favorite against an opponent like Sherando.
@VAtuffTurf no I wouldn't, because it would be completely ignorant and foolish of me to say Louisa would beat Sherando by that much, since I haven't seen Sherando play this year, while also being aware of their injuries. And yes, we had 16 at half against winless KR, and had 20 at half against 8-2 Ponax. I was at both games and know the context/stories of both games.
If it means anything I have a lot of respect for Louisa. I enjoy going back and forth with you because I feel like we come from the same place...team doesn’t really get much respect on here.
I’m accustomed to hearing that Sherando is a pretender because every championship game they made it to they got laughed off. And that’s cool, I’m not going to argue that but we do knock a good team off that championship path from time to time.
I’m accustomed to hearing that Sherando is a pretender because every championship game they made it to they got laughed off. And that’s cool, I’m not going to argue that but we do knock a good team off that championship path from time to time.
@VAtuffTurf and that's fine, and I appreciate it, but literally using your past arguments, Louisa can't hang with Martinsburg because of the KR halftime score. I can turn around and say we can hang with Martinsburg because of our Ponax halftime score. However, I wouldn't use that argument, because it's silly, just like I think comparing the Sherando/KR halftime score to Louisa's is as well. My argument would be we can hang with and beat Martinsburg because of what I saw from Martinsburg against Salem. I only mentioned the Ponax/Stafford halftime score because Stafford never stood a chance against them from the opening kickoff, and Stafford is a common opponent of Ponax and Tuscarora.
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I think this is the first time I've ever heard someone think a team played better that lost 37-0 to a opponent they play every yr. The Martinsburg announcers didn't think Sherando was better. Go figure. I will say that each game is different. Can't compare scores .
I would really like to see that Monacan and eastern matchup those would be great games.
I would hope it would be that way. Sherando isn’t even in the championship talk, apparently Louisa is. We shouldn’t have to be comparing apples to oranges right? Would have been some second guessing if it weren’t that way.
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Why are we even discussing Sherando and Louisa? Sherando is way down this year and is not even close to a contender... Come on!!
