Kettle Run (5-0) @ Millbrook (4-1) + Est. 4C Playoff Standings

[Shruikan]

Going into this Friday's game, I have the Region C power points calculated as follows, using the formula in the sticky'd post. It's possible these numbers might be off slightly:

1. Loudoun County (5-0), 26.0
2. Kettle Run (5-0), 24.8
3. Sherando (5-0), 24.0
4a. Handley (4-1), 23.4
4b. Riverside (4-1), 23.4
6. Dominion (3-2), 21.8
-------------------------------------------
7. Woodgrove (2-2), 21.75
8. Millbrook (4-1), 21.4
9. Heritage (3-2), 19.2
10. James Wood (2-3), 19.0
11. Liberty (2-3), 17.8
12. Loudoun Valley (0-3), 15.3
13. Fauquier (0-4), 13.25

Right now Kettle Run is safely in the playoffs and seems likely to end the season anywhere from 10-0 to 8-2. Even the low end of that estimate would likely put them into the postseason. Millbrook on the other hand has been plagued by the poor performance of their beaten opponents and still has to face Handley, Liberty, and Sherando after this weekend.

If Millbrook loses this game and goes on to end up at 7-3, it's entirely possible that they will miss the playoffs (but that's not guaranteed). A win here and a finish at 8-2 would get them in.

In short, a win by Kettle Run would essentially lock them into the postseason unless something bizarre happens down the stretch and a loss wouldn't be the end of the world. A win for Millbrook would not lock them into the postseason but would increase their chances drastically, and a loss would mean they'd go into the Sherando game in a potentially must-win situation even if they beat Liberty and Handley.

Anyone have any thoughts or predictions? Several of the Region C teams are off this weekend (or playing away games) so this will probably be the game to be at.

 

[hamspear]

Looking at Loudoun county’s schedule , they could possibly go 10-0 if they beat Woodgrove

 

[OCBoy]

Only team I see kettle run losing to is Sherando

 

[VerizonSportsFan]

Only team I see kettle run losing to is Sherando

I think Millbrook will clip them this week.

 

[hamspear]

Tough call , but I think it will be a good game

 

[OCBoy]

I think Millbrook will clip them this week.

Millbrook has defensive issues. Major defensive issues

 

[hamspear]

Millbrook has defensive issues. Major defensive issues

I agree , but they can score , and always surprise at home

 

[hamspear]

The other thing OC , is that KR should have TCB a little better at Handley , the judges are one dimensional , heck they rushed for minus -31 yards Saturday.

 

[Shruikan]

Millbrook has defensive issues. Major defensive issues

Agreed. However, it should be noted that Millbrook's defense has been a little Jekyll and Hyde over the past couple years. They gave up a bunch of points early in the season last year and then found something towards the end. It wasn't enough but they did improve. I've got Kettle Run this weekend.

Looking at Loudoun county’s schedule , they could possibly go 10-0 if they beat Woodgrove

I think Woodgrove gets them. A 10-0 Sherando might get enough points to top Region C regardless of what Loudoun County does (but I'm not sure on that), but to host the state semifinal (if we're fortunate enough to make it that far) I imagine Blacksburg and Jefferson Forest will need to lose before the playoffs or during them.

 

[hamspear]

Only if the Warriors beat Martinsburg , if not top seed is open

 

[mbonape1]

Nice to see that region C is turning out to be competitive within the region. I had originally thought that Sherando would be head and shoulders better than everyone. Also, didn’t realize louden county was class 4. Looks like we have 4 competitive regions in class 4 across the state

 

[WarrentonCougar21]

Sherando is head and shoulders better than anyone in C.

Millbrook should not underestimate KR. I believe they might have had a tough game with some big mistakes in the secondary at Handley. Handley is no push over this year; They are scrappy! Kettle Run is big and strong up front. They play rough at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They also have only given up 34 points all year. I believe they just can grind teams down if they put in effort for 4 quarters of solid football.

 

[VonCausewitz]

Next 2 weeks will shake things up. All teams are going to hit the meat of the schedule - the cupcakes disappear.

 

[Shruikan]

Next 2 weeks will shake things up. All teams are going to hit the meat of the schedule - the cupcakes disappear.

Agreed. The contenders will separate themselves from the pretenders over the coming weeks.

 

[hamspear]

Yeh we might even have a few brownies , and couple Jelly Beans , and a circus peanut by the time we are done. Region C....is loaded!

 

[mike salem]

Yeh we might even have a few brownies , and couple Jelly Beans , and a circus peanut by the time we are done. Region C....is loaded!

Sherando seems to be there for sure we'll find out about everyone else

 

[VonCausewitz]

Yeh we might even have a few brownies , and couple Jelly Beans , and a circus peanut by the time we are done. Region C....is loaded!

Region C is not loaded - its a log jam of average to good teams. Sherando as of right now is head and shoulders the best team and probably the only team that could make a deep run.

Kettle Run - we will find out alot against Millbrook and then Sherando
Loudoun County - Dominion could test but Woodgrove will be the true test.

Region C has to go through Region D to get to states, which hasn't happened since 13.

 

[hamspear]

Sherando is the best team in the state . No seemi

Region C is not loaded - its a log jam of average to good teams. Sherando as of right now is head and shoulders the best team and probably the only team that could make a deep run.

Kettle Run - we will find out alot against Millbrook and then Sherando
Loudoun County - Dominion could test but Woodgrove will be the true test.

Region C has to go through Region D to get to states, which hasn't happened since 13.

region is loaded was a joke

 

[Shruikan]

Region C is not loaded - its a log jam of average to good teams. Sherando as of right now is head and shoulders the best team and probably the only team that could make a deep run.

Kettle Run - we will find out alot against Millbrook and then Sherando
Loudoun County - Dominion could test but Woodgrove will be the true test.

Region C has to go through Region D to get to states, which hasn't happened since 13.

I agree with your points about Kettle Run and Loudoun County. We'll find out how good Sherando really is against Martinsburg next weekend. If they can win at Martinsburg this year I think they can play with anyone from Region D.

Though I will say that although it's true that no one from Region C has gotten to the state finals since Sherando in 2013, it should be noted that no one except Salem from Region D has either. That's not to say that I think Region C has been as good as D in recent years. It certainly hasn't.

 

[Rev_Real]

Sherando is the best team in the state . No seemi

region is loaded was a joke

Lets let it play out now, lets take it 1 week at a time. No need for another letdown

 

[Shruikan]

Millbrook up 14-6 in the early minutes of the 2nd quarter. Not impressed with either team thus far, despite Savon Smith being back.