Going into this Friday's game, I have the Region C power points calculated as follows, using the formula in the sticky'd post. It's possible these numbers might be off slightly:
1. Loudoun County (5-0), 26.0
2. Kettle Run (5-0), 24.8
3. Sherando (5-0), 24.0
4a. Handley (4-1), 23.4
4b. Riverside (4-1), 23.4
6. Dominion (3-2), 21.8
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7. Woodgrove (2-2), 21.75
8. Millbrook (4-1), 21.4
9. Heritage (3-2), 19.2
10. James Wood (2-3), 19.0
11. Liberty (2-3), 17.8
12. Loudoun Valley (0-3), 15.3
13. Fauquier (0-4), 13.25
Right now Kettle Run is safely in the playoffs and seems likely to end the season anywhere from 10-0 to 8-2. Even the low end of that estimate would likely put them into the postseason. Millbrook on the other hand has been plagued by the poor performance of their beaten opponents and still has to face Handley, Liberty, and Sherando after this weekend.
If Millbrook loses this game and goes on to end up at 7-3, it's entirely possible that they will miss the playoffs (but that's not guaranteed). A win here and a finish at 8-2 would get them in.
In short, a win by Kettle Run would essentially lock them into the postseason unless something bizarre happens down the stretch and a loss wouldn't be the end of the world. A win for Millbrook would not lock them into the postseason but would increase their chances drastically, and a loss would mean they'd go into the Sherando game in a potentially must-win situation even if they beat Liberty and Handley.
Anyone have any thoughts or predictions? Several of the Region C teams are off this weekend (or playing away games) so this will probably be the game to be at.
1. Loudoun County (5-0), 26.0
2. Kettle Run (5-0), 24.8
3. Sherando (5-0), 24.0
4a. Handley (4-1), 23.4
4b. Riverside (4-1), 23.4
6. Dominion (3-2), 21.8
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7. Woodgrove (2-2), 21.75
8. Millbrook (4-1), 21.4
9. Heritage (3-2), 19.2
10. James Wood (2-3), 19.0
11. Liberty (2-3), 17.8
12. Loudoun Valley (0-3), 15.3
13. Fauquier (0-4), 13.25
Right now Kettle Run is safely in the playoffs and seems likely to end the season anywhere from 10-0 to 8-2. Even the low end of that estimate would likely put them into the postseason. Millbrook on the other hand has been plagued by the poor performance of their beaten opponents and still has to face Handley, Liberty, and Sherando after this weekend.
If Millbrook loses this game and goes on to end up at 7-3, it's entirely possible that they will miss the playoffs (but that's not guaranteed). A win here and a finish at 8-2 would get them in.
In short, a win by Kettle Run would essentially lock them into the postseason unless something bizarre happens down the stretch and a loss wouldn't be the end of the world. A win for Millbrook would not lock them into the postseason but would increase their chances drastically, and a loss would mean they'd go into the Sherando game in a potentially must-win situation even if they beat Liberty and Handley.
Anyone have any thoughts or predictions? Several of the Region C teams are off this weekend (or playing away games) so this will probably be the game to be at.