New "proposed" alignment plan 2017-2018 & 2018-2019

[VolNation85]

Check out the new proposed alignment plan beginning with the 2017 season. The alignment eliminates conferences and creates 24 regions (4 in each classification, similar to how it was before). The idea is it refocus the importance of district and local rivalries.

This plan is the initial proposal that was released by the VHSl today. There probably will be a few changes before it is finalized, as noted by the fine print under each section. Also, member schools have until Friday, January 8, 2016 to appeal their placement. The VHSL will then post the schedule of appeals on their website on Monday, January 11, 2016. The appeals will be heard on Wednesday, January 13, 2016.

Let the debates, complaints, and conversations begin!

http://www.vhsl.org/doc/upload/alignment-2017-19-initial-proposed-24-region-alignment-plan.pdf

 

[CRF4Dan]

You beat me to the punch, I was going to post about this topic this morning.

I don't have any real issues with it other than all the possibilities of this team or that team moving up or down but I would like to know is that because of their enrollment or because they want to move up or down. I thought one of the issues that plagued the old alignment was so many teams playing up or down, I'd hate to see that open up that bag of worms yet again.

The other issue with this I'm most curious about is the playoff setup... For example, in 6A Region 2 there might only be 8 or 9 schools in that region... So do we have regional playoffs and if so how many schools get in...

Still a lot be worked out and clarified.

 

[VolNation85]

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You beat me to the punch, I was going to post about this topic this morning.

I don't have any real issues with it other than all the possibilities of this team or that team moving up or down but I would like to know is that because of their enrollment or because they want to move up or down. I thought one of the issues that plagued the old alignment was so many teams playing up or down, I'd hate to see that open up that bag of worms yet again.

The other issue with this I'm most curious about is the playoff setup... For example, in 6A Region 2 there might only be 8 or 9 schools in that region... So do we have regional playoffs and if so how many schools get in...

Still a lot be worked out and clarified.[/QUOTE

I'm about 99% sure that the schools that would move up or down would be because of enrollment. All of the schools that are in that scenario are currently close to the cutoff (one way or another) in their current alignment.

I was interested in the playoff setup as well. With it being such adiscrepancy in the number of teams in each region, I'm pretty sure it will be left to the member schools of each region to determine their playoff setup.

We shall see.

 

[cutnjump]

You beat me to the punch, I was going to post about this topic this morning.

I don't have any real issues with it other than all the possibilities of this team or that team moving up or down but I would like to know is that because of their enrollment or because they want to move up or down. I thought one of the issues that plagued the old alignment was so many teams playing up or down, I'd hate to see that open up that bag of worms yet again.

The other issue with this I'm most curious about is the playoff setup... For example, in 6A Region 2 there might only be 8 or 9 schools in that region... So do we have regional playoffs and if so how many schools get in...

Still a lot be worked out and clarified.

You hit the nail on the head. Still too much to be worked out and/or clarified to really comment or get worked up about. Your other observations are dead on as well. The VHSL and its members need to decide what the basic objectives of alignment(enrollment size, geography, etc.) are, set parameters to meet those objectives and then stick to them for more than a New York minute or no one is ever going to get familiar with the alignment and, more importantly, rivalries which promote competition and attendance cannot be developed. Also, the numbers of schools in whatever regional distribution needs to be somewhat comparable or there has to be some equitable means devised to allocate playoff spots. It makes no sense that an 8 team region generates the same number of state playoff spots as a 17 team region, in my opinion. To clarify, the difference in number is assuming all other things being equal because clearly a smaller region loaded with playoff caliber teams should not be penalized either. Somewhat like the Richmond district with JM and the other basketball powerhouses only getting two spots when in some years they may have had as many as 4 of the top 5 teams in the state.

 

[mike salem]

You hit the nail on the head. Still too much to be worked out and/or clarified to really comment or get worked up about. Your other observations are dead on as well. The VHSL and its members need to decide what the basic objectives of alignment(enrollment size, geography, etc.) are, set parameters to meet those objectives and then stick to them for more than a New York minute or no one is ever going to get familiar with the alignment and, more importantly, rivalries which promote competition and attendance cannot be developed. Also, the numbers of schools in whatever regional distribution needs to be somewhat comparable or there has to be some equitable means devised to allocate playoff spots. It makes no sense that an 8 team region generates the same number of state playoff spots as a 17 team region, in my opinion. To clarify, the difference in number is assuming all other things being equal because clearly a smaller region loaded with playoff caliber teams should not be penalized either. Somewhat like the Richmond district with JM and the other basketball powerhouses only getting two spots when in some years they may have had as many as 4 of the top 5 teams in the state.

Carroll Co wants out of the RRD, Franklin Co wants in. That might happen, but Franklin Co also wants to drop to 5A despite being 250 over the current 5/6A line. I don't think FC will get the latter. I do hope Carroll Co will be allowed to leave the RRD, they haven't won a district football game in 14 tries. Times article about local planned moves:

http://m.roanoke.com/sports/vhsl-an...dfd-7145-54e9-ac33-274105ac2260.html?mode=jqm

 

[TIDEPRIDE01]

I like the change and going back to old system of 4 regions...think each region should have 6 team playoff w/#1 and #2 seeds getting bye...then cross bracket the region champs like 1A and 2A did...if the two best teams in the division come from same area then so be it...hate seeing the real state championship played the week before in state semifinals....give automatic berth back to district champs too...gives yah something to fight for again and makes district play relevant again...I wish VA would take page out of IL football playoff pairings...don't give final enrollment until playoffs and fill all brackets with district champions and teams with at least a 6-4 winning record...then take "bubble teams" w/5-5 records...until you fill up required # of teams to fill 6 divisions w/24 teams per...then take top 24 teams enrollment wise and that is 6A then separate into 4 regions ...then you continue w5A-1A....very rarely do you get a "losing" team in playoffs unless they barely make it because they played a very tough schedule....they also base off of "football enrollment" aka the # of boys in each school...IL lets private play w/public schools but add a multiplier to private boys enrollment to determine classification...not a big fan of public vs private but w/recent addition of LCA I feel it's only in due time before it happens in VA....in IL they have a "Playoff Show" where IHSA posts the brackets according to class...teams,players,parents,coaches host playoff selection parties until they find out who and what classification they play in...most of time based on enrollment you probably know what class you will play at but every now and then you might fluctuate based on changes in enrollment

 

[DinwiddieProud]

The official enrollment numbers for the new alignment timeframe will be those compiled in March of this year, correct? March 31?

 

[mike salem]

The official enrollment numbers for the new alignment timeframe will be those compiled in March of this year, correct? March 31?

Here are some potential changes based on March ADM #'s that would take effect for '17 I believe, Not sure when these will be finalized:

* Potential changes to 5A, 4A and 3A ‐‐ Grafton may move down to 3A
--Kings Fork may move up to 5A
--Tabb and I. C. Norcom may move up to 4A
--Courtland may move down to 3A. Midlothian may move up to 5A
Harrisonburg, Sherando and Woodgrove may move up to 5A
John Champe, Freedom (LC) and Rock Ridge all strong possibility of moving up to 5A
--Bassett, William Byrd and LCA may move down to 3A
--William Fleming may move up to 5A
--Riverside may move up to 4A North Region
--Spotsylvania may move up to 4A Central Region
--Fluvanna may move up to 4A Rockbridge Co. moving from Blue Ridge to Valley District
Vhsl.org

 

[DinwiddieProud]

If what I believe to be the case, these possibilities are based on unofficial ADM's provided to the VHSL for planning purposes. But, I think it is safe to assume the projections are pretty darn accurate. I'm sure that there are one or two ADM projections that are self serving and wishful thinking.

That's why I was wondering if anyone knew the actual date. I'm pretty sure it's March 31 2016.

To be honest, I was lazy and didn't analyze the alignment data looking for this, but are there any schools that will be be split or combined starting with the new realignment? Are there any new schools projected to open at the beginning, or during, the new realignment? Also, I wonder if there are any schools in NOVA that are growing so fast that they asking to be moved up one level because they know they will be that large by the second year of the new alignment?

Wow, a lot of questions.

Mike, what's the deal with LCA? Is enrollment dropping? Or is it a re-thinking/re-evaluation of the level they should be placed?

Of all the 4a teams affected, I think I'm more surprised by declining enrollment at Courtland than any other potential changes. If they dropped to 3a it would probably be as impactful as Phoebus. But then, we see how that worked out, didn't we?

 

[mike salem]

If what I believe to be the case, these possibilities are based on unofficial ADM's provided to the VHSL for planning purposes. But, I think it is safe to assume the projections are pretty darn accurate. I'm sure that there are one or two ADM projections that are self serving and wishful thinking.

That's why I was wondering if anyone knew the actual date. I'm pretty sure it's March 31 2016.

To be honest, I was lazy and didn't analyze the alignment data looking for this, but are there any schools that will be be split or combined starting with the new realignment? Are there any new schools projected to open at the beginning, or during, the new realignment? Also, I wonder if there are any schools in NOVA that are growing so fast that they asking to be moved up one level because they know they will be that large by the second year of the new alignment?

Wow, a lot of questions.

Mike, what's the deal with LCA? Is enrollment dropping? Or is it a re-thinking/re-evaluation of the level they should be placed?

Of all the 4a teams affected, I think I'm more surprised by declining enrollment at Courtland than any other potential changes. If they dropped to 3a it would probably be as impactful as Phoebus. But then, we see how that worked out, didn't we?

One of my classmates that I graduated with works in the front office. She told me each grade had approximately 175-200 students. So HS enrollment is between 700-800. With the 1.5 multiplier that range is 1050-1200. (Borderline for 3/4A) Now that the LU scholarship no longer exists, I expect enrollment may drop some in the coming years. I think if they drop to 3A next cycle they'll likely stay at that level for a long time imo.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

One of my classmates that I graduated with works in the front office. She told me each grade had approximately 175-200 students. So HS enrollment is between 700-800. With the 1.5 multiplier that range is 1050-1200. (Borderline for 3/4A) Now that the LU scholarship no longer exists, I expect enrollment may drop some in the coming years. I think if they drop to 3A next cycle they'll likely stay at that level for a long time imo.

Do you think they were in a little over their head, because of being one level too high? Or was it just the difference in the style of most public school ball? Hard to evaluate that on one playoff game.

Even at 3a, having to play the level of the teams we saw in the 3a playoffs would have the same results. Assuming they don't substantially improve. And with the rules beginning to mitigate their recruiting/re-classification advantage, it should only get tougher for them.

I don't think we will see much difference this year, but starting in 2017 with them playing a district schedule, we will see if they are pretenders or contenders.

Just listening to the snow forcast. Ouch for you. We will be on the proverbial rain/snow line. But you, my friend, are pretty close to ground zero.

 

[cutnjump]

Do you think they were in a little over their head, because of being one level too high? Or was it just the difference in the style of most public school ball? Hard to evaluate that on one playoff game.

Even at 3a, having to play the level of the teams we saw in the 3a playoffs would have the same results. Assuming they don't substantially improve. And with the rules beginning to mitigate their recruiting/re-classification advantage, it should only get tougher for them.

I don't think we will see much difference this year, but starting in 2017 with them playing a district schedule, we will see if they are pretenders or contenders.

Just listening to the snow forcast. Ouch for you. We will be on the proverbial rain/snow line. But you, my friend, are pretty close to ground zero.

Just my two cents but, the focus has changed in Lynchburg. Early on the secondary school was a much larger focus and the LU scholarship helped raise the LCA profile and supported the university enrollment goals as well. That has all changed now that Liberty is printing money with their exploding online degree programs. They are focused on being a full fledged Division 1 FBS school and the focus at LCA has been reduced. Even in their best years LCA was arguably at a borderline D-2/D-3(old single A/AA) level and that is probably where they will eventually settle.

 

[mike salem]

Do you think they were in a little over their head, because of being one level too high? Or was it just the difference in the style of most public school ball? Hard to evaluate that on one playoff game.

Even at 3a, having to play the level of the teams we saw in the 3a playoffs would have the same results. Assuming they don't substantially improve. And with the rules beginning to mitigate their recruiting/re-classification advantage, it should only get tougher for them.

I don't think we will see much difference this year, but starting in 2017 with them playing a district schedule, we will see if they are pretenders or contenders.

Just listening to the snow forcast. Ouch for you. We will be on the proverbial rain/snow line. But you, my friend, are pretty close to ground zero.

As you said we won't know till '17, the Seminole District will either mold them into a playoff team or break their spirit. I think they were borderline 3/4A I don't think their rude introduction to the 4A playoffs made them scurry to drop down.

Forecast models don't look promising. I've seen anywhere from 5-36" on the models. Locally they should know more about the track of the storm tomorrow.