New Realignment

[Olduvatechmason]

http://www.vhsl.org/doc/upload/alignment-March-31-2016-ADM-numbers-by-classification-6-22-16.pdf


Nothing too exciting as. It much changes with new numbers except piques on moving down. Biggest thing that stands out is only 48 total schools with the bottom 5 below 2a threshold. Also includes other Richmond schools that usually don't have much in terms of sports save for basketball.

 

[otnorot]

If John Marshall and Thomas Jefferson really have enrollments in the 600s, shouldn't that be far enough below the threshold to knock them down to 2A? The meeting minutes make it sound like they were originally placed in 2A and then moved back to 3A. Is it a situation where not all of their kids have been counted yet? IIRC during the last reclassification John Marshall was originally in 2A but then they had to add in some kids who attended another school but were eligible to play sports at JM and they stayed in 3A instead.

 

[maroons1]

Richmond is closing Armstrong. That will add 200-300 students to both TJ and Marshall.

 

[maroons1]

I wonder if Salem will be AAA when they do this again in years. If this was still a 2 year cycle, I think they would be the largest AAA school in the state.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I wonder if Salem will be AAA when they do this again in years. If this was still a 2 year cycle, I think they would be the largest AAA school in the state.

I didn't realize that Salem had a declining enrollment. What was their ADM number four years ago?

 

[1MoreHokie]

Salem has waxed and waned before, I don't think it's an indicator. They were down around 1200 a decade or so ago and ballooned up to 1300+ shortly after so it's probably just the numbers doing their thing. If anything the recent stretch was the outlier as the low 1200s was typically where Salem was found. Salem has never been one of the big 4A schools, at least not for the last 20-25 years(since they were the old AAA until the late 80s).

 

[mike salem]

I didn't realize that Salem had a declining enrollment. What was their ADM number four years ago?

I can't seem to find the numbers anymore but I always remember Salem having around 1,230. VHSL-REFERENCE has an old number of 1,246. The most recent ADM has 1,169. I think it's just a variation in class sizes and doesn't necessarily reflect an actual trend of decline. IIRC my son's graduating class in 2014 was about 50 more than my daughter's this year. What I do see is a statewide shift in demographics, mainly focused on NOVA. 6A is nearly 2/3 NOVA teams. As more schools get built to accommodate the rapid growth the cutoff lines keep bumping stagnant growth, level, and declining population schools down levels. Salem's numbers will stay pretty consistent with minor variations between 1,150-1,250. With this ADM they are only 7 from the bottom of 4A. I read on another board Prince William already has plans for another school within the next 5 years. Loudoun Co apparently has plans for 2 more. So it's possible with variations to have a school close to the cutoff to drop a level, or in Sherando's case bump up a level.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I hate to see Sherando go up. I enjoyed them in 4a.

 

[Captain Cavman]

Can anyone explain why there are several schools at the top of 2a that have numbers well above schools that are at the bottom of 3a? Shouldn't they be moved up and the other schools moved down? Seems like it creates an unfair advantage for the large 2a schools and a big disadvantage for the small 3a schools that could benefit from playing 2a.

 

[mike salem]

Can anyone explain why there are several schools at the top of 2a that have numbers well above schools that are at the bottom of 3a? Shouldn't they be moved up and the other schools moved down? Seems like it creates an unfair advantage for the large 2a schools and a big disadvantage for the small 3a schools that could benefit from playing 2a.

Good catch, I hadn't noticed that, but when I looked there are a handful of schools in the same boat at just about every level. Their enrollments listed are smaller than several teams that are a level down from them. It has something to do with the right hand column and the 5%, but I've never seen this listed on the Classification numbers before. It's something new and I don't understand it either.

 

[MntnrMark]

http://www.vhsl.org/doc/upload/alignment-March-31-2016-ADM-numbers-by-classification-6-22-16.pdf


Nothing too exciting as. It much changes with new numbers except piques on moving down. Biggest thing that stands out is only 48 total schools with the bottom 5 below 2a threshold. Also includes other Richmond schools that usually don't have much in terms of sports save for basketball.

So, Blacksburg is moving up to 4A? That's a tougher road than 3A, for sure.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Welcome to the forum, Mark.

What can you, or anyone else, tell us about Blacksburg football? That's just not a team I recall seeing much about.

 

[mike salem]

So, Blacksburg is moving up to 4A? That's a tougher road than 3A, for sure.

Yeah it looks that way based on the ADM numbers. This will take effect next fall. The playoffs will be done regionally like they used to be for next fall also.

 

[mike salem]

Welcome to the forum, Mark.

What can you, or anyone else, tell us about Blacksburg football? That's just not a team I recall seeing much about.

They were 6-5 last year which was a nice improvement over the usual 3-7 avg season. They lose their 6'3" 230 lb gunslinger of a QB, but luckily for them he has a younger brother that is 6'4" 190 and is a rising Soph. Their dad was the QB at WVU and he is the OC for Bburg.

They lose a couple of their best WR's, but they return a good Jr RB in Beck and a very fast elusive RB/WR in Terry, that is a Soph.

I expect they'll be fighting for a playoff spot again this year with similar results.

 

[cutnjump]

Good catch, I hadn't noticed that, but when I looked there are a handful of schools in the same boat at just about every level. Their enrollments listed are smaller than several teams that are a level down from them. It has something to do with the right hand column and the 5%, but I've never seen this listed on the Classification numbers before. It's something new and I don't understand it either.

I think this is actually the first time it has appeared on the printed ADM and the following is based off a vague memory of a discussion in a news report in an earlier realignment. The + or - 5% is a concession to two things. First, the realization that a hard and fast number on any date might be difficult to strictly align and it would be ripe for schools on the fringe to petition to move up or down on an absolute number, therefore the 5% provides the proverbial "wiggle room". The second factor is tied to the first in that mandatory conference scheduling in mixed conferences is required only within 2 classifications(i.e. a 3A would not be required to play a 6A) and in certain areas it may make sense from a conference slotting perspective to have a school on the fringe classified up or down. Two local examples, include FC in Piedmont and PH in River Ridge. In FC's case as a 6A school Tunstall is not required to schedule them, however, were Tunstall's numbers to be in the 5% range of 4A lower tier the VHSL could have moved them up essentially mandating a game. In PH's case they moved down to 5A which meant Cave Spring could not avoid scheduling them.

 

[mike salem]

I think this is actually the first time it has appeared on the printed ADM and the following is based off a vague memory of a discussion in a news report in an earlier realignment. The + or - 5% is a concession to two things. First, the realization that a hard and fast number on any date might be difficult to strictly align and it would be ripe for schools on the fringe to petition to move up or down on an absolute number, therefore the 5% provides the proverbial "wiggle room". The second factor is tied to the first in that mandatory conference scheduling in mixed conferences is required only within 2 classifications(i.e. a 3A would not be required to play a 6A) and in certain areas it may make sense from a conference slotting perspective to have a school on the fringe classified up or down. Two local examples, include FC in Piedmont and PH in River Ridge. In FC's case as a 6A school Tunstall is not required to schedule them, however, were Tunstall's numbers to be in the 5% range of 4A lower tier the VHSL could have moved them up essentially mandating a game. In PH's case they moved down to 5A which meant Cave Spring could not avoid scheduling them.

Thanks for the clarification Cut. Did anyone else notice Hampton at the low end of 5A? If they drop to 4A in the near future that will be another tough team to throw in the East mix. They haven't won a title this decade yet, but they have won at least one for the last 8 decades and 17 overall.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I was looking at the enrollment numbers listed on VHSL reference. I think we can totally discount their accuracy. I'm not sure where they compiled them from, but it sure doesn't look like the official ADM numbers.

Hampton would be fun to have in 4a.

I wonder how many more years we will keep Kings Fork? They are near the top of the scale with a history of steady growth.

What do we know about the Woodgrove area? Growing or shrinking?

 

[cutnjump]

Thanks for the clarification Cut. Did anyone else notice Hampton at the low end of 5A? If they drop to 4A in the near future that will be another tough team to throw in the East mix. They haven't won a title this decade yet, but they have won at least one for the last 8 decades and 17 overall.

You're welcome. I must reemphasize that is based off a vague memory of a newspaper article several years back so there may in fact be new or different thinking about what is going on. As far as Hampton goes, I would expect they will do what they can to stay in the higher classification. Devils can talk about LT and maybe one of the Phantom fans can offer a Phoebus perspective but, I imagine all those schools forced to a lower classification would still opt to play up if given the chance.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Yeah, but opting to play up is just not a choice anymore. Unless there is some extenuating circumstance such as redistricting, splitting schools, combining schools, or demonstrated sustained growth, (i.e. NVA), you can't just "want to".

 

[cutnjump]

Yeah, but opting to play up is just not a choice anymore. Unless there is some extenuating circumstance such as redistricting, splitting schools, combining schools, or demonstrated sustained growth, (i.e. NVA), you can't just "want to".

That is correct. I was just more offering an opinion on the competitive mindset of certain programs and their desire to play up if there is any way to legitimately be classified there. That mindset doesn't prevail in all places around the state as there are schools that have used the system to play down when clearly they were within a higher ADM.

 

[mike salem]

I was looking at the enrollment numbers listed on VHSL reference. I think we can totally discount their accuracy. I'm not sure where they compiled them from, but it sure doesn't look like the official ADM numbers.

Hampton would be fun to have in 4a.

I wonder how many more years we will keep Kings Fork? They are near the top of the scale with a history of steady growth.

What do we know about the Woodgrove area? Growing or shrinking?

The VHSL Reference numbers are just old and haven't been updated in several years. A number of teams are listed in the wrong class because that hasn't been updated either. During the season they are usually 2-3 games behind. This past year was really noticeable that they aren't keeping the site updated as frequently. It's a great resource, I'm not sure what's happened recently to put them behind.

The Woodgrove area is growing, but not nearly as much. With all of the schools that were built recently it helped keep Woodgrove from moving up. No such luck for Champe.

 

[otnorot]

The reason for the 5% thresholds is that this is the midpoint of what is now a four-year classification cycle, so instead of doing a full reclassification they just move up or down schools that have had a particularly large enrollment change.

The next "full" reclassification will take effect in 2019. Unless they change the rules again...

 

[numb3rs]

I can't seem to find the numbers anymore but I always remember Salem having around 1,230. VHSL-REFERENCE has an old number of 1,246. The most recent ADM has 1,169. I think it's just a variation in class sizes and doesn't necessarily reflect an actual trend of decline. IIRC my son's graduating class in 2014 was about 50 more than my daughter's this year. What I do see is a statewide shift in demographics, mainly focused on NOVA. 6A is nearly 2/3 NOVA teams. As more schools get built to accommodate the rapid growth the cutoff lines keep bumping stagnant growth, level, and declining population schools down levels. Salem's numbers will stay pretty consistent with minor variations between 1,150-1,250. With this ADM they are only 7 from the bottom of 4A. I read on another board Prince William already has plans for another school within the next 5 years. Loudoun Co apparently has plans for 2 more. So it's possible with variations to have a school close to the cutoff to drop a level, or in Sherando's case bump up a level.

According to the Virginia DOE 2015-2016 census based on enrollment at 9/30/2015, grades 11 and 12 are both in the 260s for Salem while grades 8-10 are all above 310. The earlier grades fluctuate between 260 and 300.

 

[CRF4Dan]

Richmond is closing Armstrong. That will add 200-300 students to both TJ and Marshall.

There was the possibility that Armstrong would be closing but the City of Richmond was able to work it out so that they did not have to close it. So for the next couple of seasons, Armstrong will continue to be around.

 

[EPJr]

FINAL REALIGNMENT AFTER SATISFYING APPEALS
http://www.vhsl.org/doc/upload/alignment-final-24-region-alignment-plan1.pdf