Some thoughts:
~First and foremost, the VHSL's ratings point scale needs a serious retooling. The goals should be to provide more separation among teams in the final points standings, and to not give the same amount of credit to teams that have similar records, but vastly different schedules. I haven't sat down and given serious consideration to what scheme would be better, but here are a few changes I thought of:
- Stop awarding two bonus points per difference in classification to larger schools in non-district games. It used to be one point per classification difference in non-district games; go back to that. To use an example, Carroll County is a Class 3 school whose entire schedule consists of schools from Classes 1 and 2. The Cavaliers could easily play two or three Class 3 schools non-district, such as William Byrd, Christiansburg, or Cave Spring, if they so desired. One trip to Roanoke per football season isn't going to blow their budget, and in actuality, Carroll's average round-trip distance to district opponents was shorter in the River Ridge District than it is now that they've moved to the Three Rivers (counter-intuitive, but true). Carroll's entire district slate is either Class 2 or 1; they don't need to be rewarded for rounding out their schedule with smaller schools, as well. The Cavs could conceivably qualify for the Class 3 playoffs without ever facing any school that large. Again, that's just an example. I'm sure there are lots of other schools around the state that subtly "game the system" in a similar fashion.
- Stop treating all victories by defeated opponents as equal. Let's say Tuscarora beats Woodgrove, who then goes on to give Broad Run their only loss. Now let's say Liberty beats Fauquier, who later knocks off a team that finishes 0-10. In the VHSL points rating scale, Tuscarora gets two bonus points for Woodgrove's win over a 9-1 Broad Run - just the same as the two points Liberty would get for Fauquier's ho-hum win over that winless team. That doesn't seem right, and it needs to be addressed. I'm just not sure how.
- Add another bonus points value, called "Quality points". Here's how it would work. Every VHSL team and out-of-state opponent would be assigned to one of six tiers. The tier would be determined by the average number of wins per season, over the previous ten seasons. This would take a lot of cipherin', but that's why the VHSL has interns. And there's probably a computer program that could do it fairly quickly. The tiers could be as follows: Tier 1: >10.00 Average Wins Per Season (AWPS); Tier 2: 8.01-10.00 AWPS; Tier 3: 6.01-8.00 AWPS; Tier 4: 4.01-6.00 AWPS; Tier 5: 2.01-4.00 AWPS; Tier 6: 0.0-2.00 AWPS. Every team would be awarded a number of Quality points every game, with the Quality point value corresponding to a tier. Tier 1 = 6 Quality points; Tier 2 = 5 Quality points; Tier 3 = 4 Quality points; Tier 4 = 3 Quality points;Tier 5 = 2 Quality points; and Tier 6 = 1 Quality point. Example 1: For the previous ten seasons (2009-2018), Stone Bridge has averaged 11.6 wins per season, or 11.6 AWPS. That would place Stone Bridge on Tier 1. So, each of Stone Bridge's regular season opponents in 2019 would receive 6 Quality points, added to their VHSL ratings scale total at the conclusion of the game, win or lose. Example 2: Craig County's AWPS for 2009-2018 is 2.2, making the Rockets a Tier 5 team. Each of their 2019 regular season opponents would receive 2 Quality points. Every team's AWPS value, and corresonding tier placement, would have to be updated every year, but again - interns. I feel this tier system, based on team's performances over a decade, could go a long way in differentiating between schedules of differing strengths.
~Once the new, improved VHSL ratings point scale is finalized,
use it to determine state semifinal pairings. This would be somewhat similar to cross-bracketing, in a way. Of the four regional champions (state semifinalists), number four on the ratings point scale would travel to number one, regardless of regions. Number three would head to number two. If E. C. Glass had the fourth-highest rating, and Lake Taylor the highest, then Glass would travel to LT in the state semis. This wouldn't ensure that the two best teams would always meet in the final - I don't think there's any to to
ensure that - but it might help. And, we still get to have regional champions, which I feel is important.
~ I like the four region set up. Four regions makes much more sense than two, in my opinion. Four regional champions gives us four natural state semifinalists, in all sports. From 2013 through the 2016-17 school year, each classification was split into two megaregions, and IMO, they were just too big. Especially in the smaller divisions, and especially the western halves. 4A North(later 4A West) had twenty-nine schools, and that's too many for one region. In all sports, we were getting first-round matchups, in all sports, that led to one-way trips of three-plus hours. In football, that was translating to lots of games with nearly-empty stands, which in turn meant less money. The one aspect I did enjoy was getting to see teams that Salem otherwise would probably never play. In the current arrangement, with only eight schools in 4D, there's going to be lots of year-to-year repetition in playoff pairings, and rematches from the regular season will be inevitable. But, so be it. Rematches don't bother me as they do many of our posters. And the VHSL really had no viable alternative to setting up the regions in Class 4 as they did, due to geography.