Playoff possibilities for Richmond area teams
- Thread starter Parker415
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The VHSL Handbook, page 132, spells out the tiebreakers. In the event of a tie between 2 teams the head to head result is the second tiebreaker. Herm would get the higher seed by virtue of their 21-20 win.
http://www.vhsl.org/doc/upload/pub-handbook-2015-162.pdf
http://www.vhsl.org/doc/upload/pub-handbook-2015-162.pdf
That is correct if its a two way tie breaker between Hermitage and Highland Springs, Hermitage would win based on head to head. If it's a three way tie breaker, head to head is cancelled and it moves on down the list. Highland Springs would win that tiebreaker based on having an opponent that played only nine games
OK, I understand the logic now. I can't believe that in this scenario that 3 teams can tie and the team that is 0-1 against the tied teams and is the only team that doesn't have a perfect record will get the number 1 seed. This is all based on the fact that one of their opponents only has a 9 game schedule. I have nothing against HS, in fact I was at the Herm-HS game and was impressed with both teams. Bird is probably the best of the three (and it pains me to say that). It is going to be a fun three weeks.....all assuming Herm takes care of business tomorrow night.
They get top seed because, had their opponent played a tenth game, they would have earned at least one rider point meaning that there would not have been a tie to begin with.
The idea is that you can't punish HS because of something that was out of their control.
I get the logic, but the fact still remains that Bird and Herm are undefeated. Herm beat HS in head-to-head. With that said, my argument is more about the process and not about HS. They are strong and will do very well in the playoffs. They will have the upper hand in this scenario because they will only have to play one of the "big three".
But that is a right that they will have earned by playing a more difficult schedule. You are considering head to head which is only one game. The points system is considering all ten games
I guess we'll have to disagree on this one. I would have no issue with Bird being the 1 seed, but in my opinion a 9-1 team that lost to a possible 10-0 team should not be the 1 seed. I will concede that HS has played a more difficult schedule (Herm can't fix the Colonial), but head-to-head is a more accurate measurement than SOS.
Yes, but you need a system that ranks everyone in the state, therefore, head to head is of little value when ranking.
If a 1-9 teams upsets a 9-1 team in the same district in their head to head matchup, should that one-win team get a postseason spot ahead of the nine-win team?
No, but that is a wild example. Our example is two teams that will make the playoffs and we are talking about seeding only. I understand why the point system is in place and don't disagree with it. My point is that the tie-breaker should come down to head-to-head instead of who played what and how many teams were played by another team. After all, this is a system where they tied in points.....not one defeating the other and the loser is out of the playoffs. This is a healthy debate in which I doubt we will agree...LOL.
IF they're opponent had WON a tenth game they would have gotten at least one rider point.
The point system is horrible, but as long as Bird, Highland Springs and Hermitage are in the thing, it doesn't matter. Home field advantage is almost non existent in the VHSL (I have studied that, it is something like 0.7 points). One of these teams is going to make the plays when it matters and advance. The way Bird and Highland Springs are playing defense they might have a final score of 3-0 in 47 overtimes.
You are right Gilliam, I don't think anyone wants to play either one. Certainly beating both will be a tall order.
I actually don't think you have much to go by in seeding these teams. With the exception of Hermitage vs. Highland Springs all three schools would have handled anybody on any of the three school's schedules. I know Springs has a tougher district, but seriously, Bird and Hermitage could have traded places with the Springers and run the district, also. Hermitage has an overtime win over Highland Springs. Bird's most marquee win is over Monacan, but the Chiefs had a pretty important player out with an injury. So even if I had a dog in this hunt, I just couldn't complain.
I'm curious. How many OT's will your formula project before it pronounces a winner? Mathematically infinitely?
The formula doesn't really do that. If the teams are closer than 1/2 a point I have the formula crank out a tie and add 7 to the higher rated team's score and 6 to the lower rated team's score. Then the program is instructed to print "OT." Theoretically, I suppose, if you had two teams that were rated exactly the same (my ratings actually go out 18 decimal places, so it isn't going to happen) that might be an infinite number of overtimes. If that did happen the computer gives the one point overtime win to the home team (if it were a neutral field it would just be which ever team I ended up typing in second when I entered the schedule).
But they were only tied because one didn't play the same amount of teams as the other which is exactly why THAT is the first tie-breaker.
You keep saying that "they are tied, they are tied" but, in fact, they are not BECAUSE they did not reach the same amount of points under the same conditions.
One ran 39 yards in 4.5 seconds and the other ran 40 yards in 4.5 seconds and you think that they are equally fast because the one time that they raced head to head, the slower guy won by a millisecond.
Let me ask it a different way. If Herm and HS tie under the current rules and Bird comes up short, it goes to head-to-head and Herm would win. Under YOUR rules, shouldn't HS always win a tie with Herm because they only played a team with 9 games? Obviously, VHSL does not agree with you in that case.
For the record, if you used my method to seed the teams and we assume all three win this week, here's how the ratings would come out (It would change a little after teams were rerated this week, but not enough to change the order, here, most likely). Which interestingly is probably the most likely way these teams finish in the VHSL ratings that I hate so much.
1. Hermitage 99.994
2. Highland Springs 99.942
3. L.C. Bird 99.906
What this means is that if you took an above average 5A team (0.5 standard deviations above the mean in my ratings), this is the probability that they would NOT win the same number of games or more against the team's schedule that the team actually won.
So an above average team would go undefeated against Hermitage's schedule only 0.006% of the time. They'd win 9 or more games against Highland Springs' schedule only 0.058% of the time and they'd go undefeated against Bird's schedule only 0.094% of the time. In other words, these three teams are awesome.
If you're an L.C. Bird fan, I wouldn't fret too much over seeding. Last year the Skyhawks won it all out of the 4 hole and played Hermitage, Highland Springs and Salem on the road. Three years ago they were the road team (despite being 10-0) in every single playoff game. They still won it all in D6 that year.
1. Hermitage 99.994
2. Highland Springs 99.942
3. L.C. Bird 99.906
What this means is that if you took an above average 5A team (0.5 standard deviations above the mean in my ratings), this is the probability that they would NOT win the same number of games or more against the team's schedule that the team actually won.
So an above average team would go undefeated against Hermitage's schedule only 0.006% of the time. They'd win 9 or more games against Highland Springs' schedule only 0.058% of the time and they'd go undefeated against Bird's schedule only 0.094% of the time. In other words, these three teams are awesome.
If you're an L.C. Bird fan, I wouldn't fret too much over seeding. Last year the Skyhawks won it all out of the 4 hole and played Hermitage, Highland Springs and Salem on the road. Three years ago they were the road team (despite being 10-0) in every single playoff game. They still won it all in D6 that year.
Bird is Bird. It has never mattered where they were seeded. It has been an incredible run for them. In the past, I felt like HS was better at home than on the road....not sure about this year. I am not sure how good Herm is this year. Can they smash with Bird, don't know? I know they can run with anyone and special teams are very good. This year Patrick has been like the Ole Ball Coach...he is slinging it around the yard. I would love to see the running game utilized more but I can't argue with the success he has had.
Yeah, you're like me. I like to muse about what I think this coach or that coach should do, but I never mean it to intend disrespect to the coach who I know without a doubt knows more football than I do. It's just me being the guy watching the game on television and telling the Super Bowl Champs the need to run the reverse.
Deep Run has a coaching vacancy if you guys want to send a spare over to better the odds tonight.
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