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Richmond Football Forecast: Playoffs Round 2

CRF4Dan

Richmond Region Football Writer
Staff
Dec 17, 2012
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Mechanicsville, VA
Well the first week of playoffs sure was exciting. From comebacks to overtimes, the first week had it all… Can't wait to see what this week brings as when 12 of our Richmond Region schools take the field. We started out at 19, down to 12… who can continue on their quest for state title?


GAME OF THE WEEK

#3 Hermitage(11-0) at #2 Manchester(11-0)
It might be cliché' to say but this is truly the biggest game in Manchester football history to date… Then again, so is every game from here on out till their season comes to an end.

Last week the Lancers won their first playoff game in the history of the program avenging their loss of the season before. There is no revenge factor in this game although there is a bit of a glimpse to the future as I believe these two will be playing one another in the regular season next year. The Lancers lone victory last week pales in comparison to their opponent, Hermitage who is 13-12 in the playoffs and under Coach Kane 11-9… That's right boys and girl, 11 of the 13 wins Hermitage has had in the playoffs have come under Kane and within the last 11 years. To say the Panthers are experienced at playing in November is an understatement. While Manchester was beating Freeman, the Panthers were taking care of business against Henrico. Close in the beginning but Hermitage just kept pulling away in the second half.

For Hermitage, there is much to like and many reasons why they can win this game. They have two quarterbacks capable of leading their team to success. Rashad Robinson is a two-year starter but went down earlier this season and in his place came Eli Odom who just continued the winning ways at Hermitage. When you can lose a player of Robinson's caliber and not miss a beat, that's saying a lot about the talent and the depth of your team. Let us not forget Johntae Wilson who had another big game last week versus Henrico as he continues to tear up the field with his run game. If you are going to beat Hermitage, you are going to have to stop both offensive weapons, not just one. Teams have tried this season and obviously at 11-0, they have failed. The passing or running game is more than capable of taking care of business and one of the x-factors is the fact that both quarterbacks can run so if the run game is contained, then you have to figure in whether the quarterback is going to run or pass and if he takes off running, can you defend him?

That can also be said about Manchester's quarterback, Daniel Rose. A two-year starter himself, Rose has taken the Lancers to new heights over the last two seasons and he's not done yet. Rose has shown time and time again he can both run and pass the ball and he has late game heroics, evident with two weeks ago at Bird. While the Lancers don't have the playoff experience Herm does, Rose is not shy in big games. The run game is a bit of concern, Eric Gordon has run the ball well but the Lancers do miss Justin Pendergrass who was sensational early on in the season. If there is a weakness to be found, if the Panthers are able to stop a facet of the offense, it will be the run game of Manchester.

Both teams have defenses more than capable of winning games. I give the edge to Hermitage in this department with the number of playmakers such as Calvin Whitehead, Dallas Carter-Taylor, Jaden Miller and John Kinney to name a few. This said the Lancers are not to be taken lightly, allowing just 98 points in 11 games this season. 33 of those 98 points however came in their past two games, again, cause for concern, especially when going up against a team such as Hermitage that is more like the Bird team they beat two weeks ago at the last second as opposed to the Rebels they allowed 21 to last week.

Weather could be a factor not only in this game but all games this Friday night. Last week in the game I attended, there were issues of holding on the the ball, bad snaps, fumbles, etc… Whether that was just part of the game or due to the frigid temperature that night is up for debate. However, with it again being frigid Friday night, that could play into either defenses hands… literally and figuratively.

With two very strong offenses I expect a game that goes back and forth for much of the night but I do think the Hermitage defense will give the Panthers the edge in this one; be it a timely interception in the fourth quarter or a big stop, look for the defense to come up big for the Panthers.
Prediction: Hermitage 30, Manchester 24


RICHMOND ROUNDOUT:

#4 LC Bird(9-2) at #1 Highland Springs(11-0)
This could easily be the Game of the Week but it's hard to argue with two undefeated teams playing one another. However, when you consider that the two-time defending state champion is facing a team that has state championship aspirations and is currently undefeated, well then you better get to Highland Springs early because this one is going to be huge!

Believe it or not, these two teams have met six times, split three each but not once have they ever met on Highland Springs turf. The Springer's are hosting this one after completing a 10-0 regular season and a fourth quarter comeback over Meadowbrook last week. Highland Springs might be 11-0 but they haven't come easy, evident by last week's game. The Springer's won by five against a feisty Armstrong team and fell behind to Meadowbrook twice this season and had to overcome.

The Springers are led by first-year starting quarterback Juwan Carter who has had three sensational weeks at the position. Beyond Carter it is a platoon of playmakers on offense. Greg Dortch and Felton Davis are two big time receivers with Davis having committed to Michigan St. and having a three-touchdown game last week. Marcus Taylor and KC Hinton are your two primary backs and that is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to weapons on offense. The defense has had great games but also has struggled at times… They allowed Armstrong to put 30 on them, Meadowbrook had 29 last week and Atlee scored quite a bit on them as well. The defense alone is concern enough for the Springers in games with strong offenses.

Bird is a team that faltered a bit this season compared to the last two seasons but then you've got to remember, the two teams they lost to are still undefeated in Lake Taylor and Manchester. Both losses were not blowouts, both losses came with a big play doing them in at the end, be it on offense or defense. Take those two losses out of the equation and this Bird team is reminiscent of the past two. Jalen Elliott in his first year as quarterback of the Skyhawks has shown the ability to both pass and run. Speaking of run, this is Bird we are talking about and we know about their history of backs so lookout for Stephen Mines and JB Wright.

Bird is synonymous for its history of backs and over the past few years, tough defenses. The Skyhawks defense has allowed just 106 points this season with 39 of those points coming within the last two weeks. The Skyhawks D was able to keep the explosive Atlee Raiders to just 13 points last week so the defense can certainly handle explosive offenses. Daijuane Dorsey and Tyler Wilkins are standouts on defense and you can count on them and the rest of the defense ready to bring the Springers win streak to a halt.

Like the Bird-Manchester game, this one will come down to which defense can stop which offense. Either team winning will not shock me but while the Springers have big time playmakers and explosiveness on offense, I feel like Bird's big game experience and defense will give them the edge. I don't expect either team to run away with this one and I expect it close throughout but the end, defense wins championships and I give that edge to the Skyhawks.
Prediction: LC Bird 28, Highland Springs 21


#8 James River(7-4) at #5 Cosby(7-4)
On October 10th, these two met with the Rapids having never beaten Cosby but that changed on this night. James River not only got their first win over Cosby but they also dealt the Titans their first loss of the season and the Titans fell into a spiral in the second half of the season. Now here we are a little over a month later with the two meeting in the most improbable of settings, the playoffs. Considering neither team had ever won a playoff game before last week, I'd certainly say improbable.

Last week James River upset top-seeded CD Hylton behind a strong defensive performance. The Titans came back from being behind to Forest Park and then won in overtime. That was last week, this week the question is, can the Rapids beat a team they just beat for the first time twice in one season?

They can, if they can beat CD Hylton, they can beat the Titans but it will take another strong defensive performance, the kind of performance that the defense had last week as well as in the Rapids and Titans first meeting. The Titans on the other hand cannot afford to get down like they did against Forest Park and expect to come back. This Rapids defense will now allow it.

The Rapids have allowed just 182 points this season but they are not invincible. Monacan, Manchester, Bird and Douglas Freeman all beat the Rapids and the Skyhawks and Lancers did so convincingly but make no mistake about it, the Titans offense don't compare to those two. The Titans rely on a balanced run game and passing attack but their offense is hardly explosive. Then again neither is James River although it does have the potential. James River scored just 13 points last week and those points came within the first half of the game.

Two teams with not a lot of playoff experience but who know one another very well from translates to a tight game. I think the Rapids are just the better team, more complete team. The defense of James River is proven and the offense has potential. I believe both come to play but in the end, the Rapids are too much for the Titans.
Prediction: James River 20, Cosby 17



ROUND THE REGION:

#9 Dinwiddie(9-2) at #1 Lake Taylor(11-0)
This is the third meeting between these two come playoff time. The first meeting in 1982 saw the Titans beat the Generals; last year it was Dinwiddie's turn. Now they meet again and while the Generals aren't the same team they were last year, they are not the team that many thought they were before last week either. The Generals had a rough ending to the regular season with a loss as well as two close games. When they visited Norcom many thought the Generals would lose but they surprised many with a 35-9 win. If Dinwiddie of last week shows up, then this one could be close, the Generals could even pull of an upset but if we get the Generals of the last part of the season, the Titans could win big. Dinwiddie is an experienced team with experienced coaching and I believe that will make this game closer than many think but I think Dinwiddie will just be outgunned and the Titans continue on their quest for the 4A State Championship.
Prediction: Lake Taylor 21, Dinwiddie 17


#3 Colonial Forge(8-3) at #2 Thomas Dale(9-2)
After eight straight wins in which the Knights appeared to just get better and better, the Knights got a fight last week with the Riverbend Bears, a game that went three overtimes with the Knights surviving. Now the Knights get a Colonial Forge team that beat them just last year with a coach the program knows all too well. Coach Bill Brown was head coach of Potomac who the Knights lost to in the playoffs in 1989 as well as 2001 when he coached CD Hylton and the Knights won. Brown holds the edge 2-1 against Thomas Dale but the Eagles have lost twice this season to Richmond Region schools in Hermitage and Highland Springs. Can the Knights complete the trifecta and do in the Eagles for the third time this season to a Richmond Region school? They have the offense, to get it done. Eric Finney is a proven playmaker in the run game and the emergence of Trent Williams on both sides of the ball has been a big help. Khalid Morris could be key to the success of the Knights. If he can have a game like he did last week and recent weeks, the Knights could win. This is one of the harder games to pick but I feel like Colonial Forge will be too much for the Knights.
Prediction: Colonial Forge 35, Thomas Dale 24


#6 Phoebus(8-3) at #3 Monacan(9-2)
The Chiefs are coming off their first playoff win since 1989… Phoebus was still a team without any state titles in football back then but times are different now and so are these two teams, this year. The Phantoms are still a force to be reckoned with but they are not nearly as strong as some of those championship teams of the past. The Chiefs on the other hand are a defensively strong team but their offense has emerged as of late only making the Chiefs that more dangerous. History and experience tell you Phoebus should win but I like Monacan's chances in this one. They've got a defense that can keep them in the game and an offense that can do just enough to put enough points on the board to compliment the defensive game. Either team could win but I just feel like Monacan has the advantage in this one and playing at home, I give the edge to Monacan… Call me crazy but I just have a feeling.
Prediction: Monacan 24, Phoebus 18


#7 Hanover(8-3) at #2 Heritage-Newport News(10-1)
When you think Hawks football, two things come to mind, defense and a run game. The Hawks have always been strong defensively; one of their staples and the run game over the years has seen such players as Deane Cheatham and Sam Rogers who could run as well as anyone on the team at the quarterback position. Combine the two and you have Clayton Cheatham, quarterback of Hanover and brother of Deane. Clayton has done well in his first season as the full-time quarterback although he did miss some time due to injury this season. The Springer's were the only team able to stop Cheatham this season. If Heritage can do what the Springers did, then game over for the Hawks but if they cannot stop Cheatham, than the Hawks win and it might not even be close. That said, I do think the Hurricanes will find a way to stop Cheatham and while the Hawks make a game of it, the Hawks just come up short.
Prediction: Heritage 23, Hanover 17


#9 Hopewell(5-6) at #1 Lafayette(11-0)
In 1980, the Blue Devils lost to Lafayette, that was the only time in four previous meetings the Blue Devils lost to the Rams. In fact, Hopewell has never lost at Lafayette. Here we are all these years later and the two meet again. The Blue Devils have been a bit of enigma this season, starting off strong but having a rough finish to the season. The Blue Devils bounced back in a big way with a great defensive game against Skyline last week. If the Blue Devils are to have a chance in this one, it will take a similar game plan if not more. Lafayette is undefeated for a reason and the Blue Devils will need to play their best game of the season if they are to have a chance. Can they win? Yes. Will they win? I hope so but I just think the Rams will be too much for the Blue Devils.
Prediction: Lafayette 28, Hopewell 16


#12 Petersburg(5-6) at #4 Poquoson(9-2)
Last year these two met in the opening round. Last year Petersburg nearly pulled off the upset. They got within a point of Poquoson and went for the onside kick but failed to recover. The Crimson Wave never got the ball back. Now they meet again and the Crimson Wave will be looking to avenge last year's loss. The return of Gemonta Jackson from injury has helped the Crimson Wave to two straight wins. Last week's win over Kettle Run was not easy, the Crimson Wave had to fight back and it took overtime and an interception to seal the deal. If Petersburg is to win this game, it will require the same sort of game plan of the past two weeks. Scoring points has not been an issue for Petersburg this season but defense has, but last week showed what the defense is capable of. Don't count Petersburg out in this one but I do believe Poquoson will get the best of Petersburg for a second straight season.
Prediction: Poquoson 24, Petersburg 20



EXTRA POINTS
I will be covering the LC Bird-Highland Springs matchup this week. This will be my third time seeing the Springer's in action this season.

Hermitage has a 2-3 record versus the Dominion District in the playoffs but all games came against LC Bird.

Last time Manchester lost a home game? Aug. 30th, 2012 versus Meadowbrook. That's 16 straight games at home with a victory.

Last time Highland Springs won two playoff games in one season? 1990.

LC Bird won last playoff meeting with Springers 36-0.

James River has never scored over 15 points in a playoff game.

This will be Cosby's first home playoff game.

Last time Thomas Dale played on a Saturday, the Knights beat Oscar Smith on their way to a state title.

Last time Monacan won two straight playoff games? 1985, before bowing out to Hampton in the state semifinals.

Hanover is playing a Peninsula District team for the first time since losing to Phoebus in 2009 in the state semifinals.

24-21 was the narrowest margin of victory for the Blue Devils in the playoffs since 2004 when they beat Henrico.

Coach Joshua Wallace is just the third Petersburg coach to win a playoff game.



If you would like to get text updates from games I'm covering and other games in the area, you may follow me on twitter at CRF4Dan or you may e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com with your cell number and I can add you to the list of many I exchange scores with.
 
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