Round #4 Semi State Playoffs

[757FridayNiteZ]

Not sure ANY of these game would be considered upsets. Teams that have won their Regional Title deserve to be in these games! BUT, CalPreps.com did just post their computer game projections. We can debate the intangibles that the computer cannot consider.

Interesting that all these games have very similar scoring margins in their projections. I chose Green Run over Maury mostly because I feel Green Run has had a tougher schedule in the Beach District AND beating THIS year's Kempsville team twice has prepared them for Maury.

 

[SPL311U]

I kinda have the same feeling about the James Madison / South County game as I did going into the game with Centreville... a little nervous... could be close / could be a blowout. The lede: South County's star player, some very good supporting cast... can Spaulding be contained enough? Will the rest of the cast make up the difference? Will South County's O-line hold up to Madison's relentless pressure and the QB get his passes off on time/target?

What to make of South County's defense? Jams Madison's offense has shown it operate in multiple styles... clock control ground game, read option, big play passes, KO and P returns, and against Centreville a new wrinkle... heavy package hurry up ground game for an entire drive (2 linebackers as fullbacks in front of RB Jeige). Potential issue (it was in the paper, so not revealing anything) senior O-lineman Boody is likely out with knee injury suffered on the Warhawk's 4th touchdown.

Score will probably be a little higher and closer, but it is home field for the Warhawks on Saturday (and strong desire by the team to take the next step plus payback for last year's loss).

 

[PhoenixHS]

I kinda have the same feeling about the James Madison / South County game as I did going into the game with Centreville... a little nervous... could be close / could be a blowout. The lede: South County's star player, some very good supporting cast... can Spaulding be contained enough? Will the rest of the cast make up the difference? Will South County's O-line hold up to Madison's relentless pressure and the QB get his passes off on time/target?

What to make of South County's defense? Jams Madison's offense has shown it operate in multiple styles... clock control ground game, read option, big play passes, KO and P returns, and against Centreville a new wrinkle... heavy package hurry up ground game for an entire drive (2 linebackers as fullbacks in front of RB Jeige). Potential issue (it was in the paper, so not revealing anything) senior O-lineman Boody is likely out with knee injury suffered on the Warhawks 4th touchdown.

Score will probably be a little higher and closer, but it is home field for the Warhawks on Saturday (and strong desire by the team to take the next step plus payback for last year's loss).

Madison has a balanced offense, and as long as they have moderate success in the trenches, and the ability to consistently get 3-4 yards on the run, the SoCo defense shouldn't be too troubling. West Potomac had trouble running the ball last weekend, but still found a way to come back down 26-10 at the half by using short passes across the middle of the field and limiting the pass rush. Defense, though, is a different issue. I've said this before and I'll say it again: Pass rush is key. Spaulding doesn't matter if you can't pass to him. Clamping down on the run was never a big issue for the Wolverines, and shouldn't trouble the Warhawks, as long as SoCo continues their philosophy of 'pass first, run rarely'. Chances are that this will come down to Madison smothering the SoCo QB, as he doesn't do well under pressure. West Po's game plan coming in was pretty much "If we limit the passing game entirely, Spaulding will be contained naturally.", which didn't really work, and the Wolverines were in that game because of several key fumbles/interceptions forced on defense and the blind squirrel theory on offense. That being said, they did end up tied with 3mins to go in the 4th, so something must be said for it. I think both of the West Po vs SoCo games are certainly interesting to watch for planning, but I really don't think Madison will have too much trouble. Should be an interesting game to watch, and I'll probably watch that game over the Big 12 'ship on Saturday.

 

[SPL311U]

Madison has a balanced offense, and as long as they have moderate success in the trenches, and the ability to consistently get 3-4 yards on the run, the SoCo defense shouldn't be too troubling. West Potomac had trouble running the ball last weekend, but still found a way to come back down 26-10 at the half by using short passes across the middle of the field and limiting the pass rush. Defense, though, is a different issue. I've said this before and I'll say it again: Pass rush is key. Spaulding doesn't matter if you can't pass to him. Clamping down on the run was never a big issue for the Wolverines, and shouldn't trouble the Warhawks, as long as SoCo continues their philosophy of 'pass first, run rarely'. Chances are that this will come down to Madison smothering the SoCo QB, as he doesn't do well under pressure. West Po's game plan coming in was pretty much "If we limit the passing game entirely, Spaulding will be contained naturally.", which didn't really work, and the Wolverines were in that game because of several key fumbles/interceptions forced on defense and the blind squirrel theory on offense. That being said, they did end up tied with 3mins to go in the 4th, so something must be said for it. I think both of the West Po vs SoCo games are certainly interesting to watch for planning, but I really don't think Madison will have too much trouble. Should be an interesting game to watch, and I'll probably watch that game over the Big 12 'ship on Saturday.

...one other side point, is that Madison has a REALLY fast safety in Hurley... his speed to the ball is pretty incredible, and as a result there have been very, very few break away passes/runs on the Warhawks. Even Ragland was dragged down by Hurley before he was able to score on that Q4 drive by Centreville. The Warhawk's secondary also has no issue blowing up receivers when they're going for the ball as one of the Wildcats found out over the middle in the third quarter when Wysocki leveled him (cleanly)...

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

Massey Ratings Game Predictor:

Green Run 21 20% COW
Maury 37 80% COW

HSHS 21 22% COW
S. Bridge 35 78% COW

Battlefield 18 10% COW
O. Smith 41 90% COW

S. County 14 21% COW
Mandison 26 79% COW

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

I just spent the morning watching the Battlefield vs Freedom game again but this time on the Prince William Sportz Network page on Facebook. Battlefield simply decided to go directly @ Freedom's huge but slow OL Tackles.. Same as what Gar-field did.

The video feed was 100% better than NFHS was.. This version of what I saw allowed me to get a better view what Battlefield does.

 

[SPL311U]

I just spent the morning watching the Battlefield vs Freedom game again but this time on the Prince William Sportz Network page on Facebook. Battlefield simply decided to go directly @ Freedom's huge but slow OL Tackles.. Same as what Gar-field did.

The video feed was 100% better than NFHS was.. This version of what I saw allowed me to get a better view what Battlefield does.

...pick the weakness... then exploit it. Good strategy.

 

[WHI]

I just spent the morning watching the Battlefield vs Freedom game again but this time on the Prince William Sportz Network page on Facebook. Battlefield simply decided to go directly @ Freedom's huge but slow OL Tackles.. Same as what Gar-field did.

The video feed was 100% better than NFHS was.. This version of what I saw allowed me to get a better view what Battlefield does.

Figure it out? Everything they do is based on what opponent does - the staff is as good as they get in HS - if they have even 1/2 the horses they win - think 76-4 last 8 reg seasons - plus they have mark cox bobby Coleman and rob mello from old winning staff - staff and scheme ain’t the question - so good Luck figuring out how they attack the O orD - OS is the best team in 6a no doubt but I’m looking forward to seeing a game - make no mistake this is the game - this should Be the state final- whoever wins this one wins it all ——

 

[HooSprings]

Figure it out? Everything they do is based on what opponent does - the staff is as good as they get in HS - if they have even 1/2 the horses they win - think 76-4 last 8 reg seasons - plus they have mark cox bobby Coleman and rob mello from old winning staff - staff and scheme ain’t the question - so good Luck figuring out how they attack the O orD - OS is the best team in 6a no doubt but I’m looking forward to seeing a game - make no mistake this is the game - this should Be the state final- whoever wins this one wins it all ——

Are you saying,either NOVA team will beat OS?! I hope you say that in jest! OS is a completely different level from ANYONE in the state,regardless of division. They are 3 TDs better than anybody!

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

Tomorrow's game will be won in the trenches.. I like Smith's OL/DL chances over the long haul of a tough battle. In 12 games vs VHSL teams = 36 points vs Smith's defense, closely matches what they achieved in the Spring after losing 16 Seniors!

Forecast for Saturday almost 70 Degrees!! We're going find out which team put in that extra conditioning work!!