THE RVA SPORTS BREAKDOWN: VHSL Football Region Standings and Analysis

[EPJr]

THE RVA SPORTS BREAKDOWN:​

VHSL Football Region Standings and Analysis For Week 9​

CLASS 4, REGION B:

1) VARINA (5-1)* 30.0
2) DINWIDDIE (6-1) 29.0
3) HUGUENOT (7-0) 28.857
4) KING GEORGE (5-2) 26.286
5) EASTERN VIEW (5-2) 25.714
6) COURTLAND (5-2) 25.429
7T) ATLEE (4-3) 23.714
MONACAN (4-3) 23.714
---
9) HANOVER (5-2) 23.286
10) CAROLINE (5-2) 22.571
11) POWHATAN (3-4) 21.714
12) PATRICK HENRY (2-5) 19.857
13) HENRICO (2-5) 19.571

ANALYSIS: First, note the asterisk next to Varina's record. That reminds you that the Blue Devils will only play nine regular season games after, first, losing the game scheduled September 6th with Freedom-Woodbridge when that program, decimated by the loss of their head coach and the transfer of multiple players, canceled all non-district games, then, thinking they had found an opponent to replace them, only to cancel as well. So, we'll divide Varina's final point total by nine, not ten, on Playoff Projection Friday Night on November 8th. The Blue Devils' final three opponents have a combined eleven wins (Atlee, Highland Springs, Patrick Henry), while Dinwiddie's have fourteen (Prince George, Meadowbrook, Matoaca), and Huguenot's have thirteen (Cosby, Midlothian, Monacan). Varina gets four bonus points for playing their biggest rival, Highland Springs, who are in Class 6. Dinwiddie will earn eight for playing two Class 5 teams and one Class 6. Huguenot will earn six for playing a Class 6 school (Cosby) and a Class 5 (Midlothian). So, as of now, Dinwiddie can count on an extra 36 points, Huguenot 32, and Varina 26. Advantage Generals. Friday night's King George/Eastern View game is huge, for obvious reasons. A Cyclones win positions them for the #4 seed, though a November 8th battle with Courtland looms, while the Foxes could draw closer to #4 with a win, but their final two games are against sub. 500 teams. And, we always talk about how tough Region 4B is, well, just look at #9 and #10. Hanover and Caroline are a combined 10-4, but are out of the playoffs had the season ended this past week. The Hawks can eliminate Henrico with a road win Friday, then have Douglas Freeman for Senior Night and a trip to Highland Springs. The winner of Monacan/Powhatan Friday is in good position with two weeks left, the loser will be on the edge of elimination. Both Caroline and their opponent Colonial Heights (Region 3A below) need wins Friday when they battle. Patrick Henry and Henrico must win out and get help, but they play each other Halloween Night in Ashland, so one of them won't get the chance for a 3-0 sweep to complete the regular season.

OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS:

REGION 4A: 1) Phoebus 29.143; 2) Hampton 24.0; 3) Smithfield 23.429; 4) Churchland 20.714
REGION 4C: 1) John Champe 30.0; 2) Tuscarora 27.143; 3) Loudoun County 23.75; 4) Woodgrove 23.143
REGION 4D: 1) George Washington-Danville 27.714; 2) Jefferson Forest 26.0; 3) Sherando 25.875; 4) Handley 25.286

Posted by robwitham at 9:20 PM

 

[EPJr]

kind of sad to see the fall off at PH.

 

[EPJr]

******************

CLASS 4, REGION B:

1) DINWIDDIE (7-1)* 30.75 (W=32, L=18)
2) VARINA (6-1)* 30.714 (W=38, L=21) (nine-game schedule)
3) HUGUENOT (8-0)* 30.0 (W=38, L=20)
4) KING GEORGE (6-2)* 27.75 (W=28, L=14)
5) COURTLAND (6-2)* 26.75 (W=32, L=16)
6) EASTERN VIEW (5-3) 25.5 (W=26, L=13)
7T) POWHATAN (4-4) 23.125 (W=26, L=14)
MONACAN (4-4) 23.125 (W=26, L=14)
ATLEE (4-4) 23.125 (W=24, L=12)
---
10) HANOVER (5-3) 22.375 (W=36, L=19)
11) CAROLINE (5-3) 22.25 (W=34, L=17)
12) HENRICO (3-5) 21.625 (W=26, L=13)
12) SPOTSYLVANIA (3-5) 20.625 (W=34, L=17)
13) PATRICK HENRY (2-6) 20.125 (W=28, L=14)


ANALYSIS: Where to begin? For starters, five teams have clinched postseason bids. Thus, nine teams still have mathematical hopes for the playoffs. Spotsylvania and Patrick Henry must win their remaining two games and likely get help. A Caroline win over Courtland and a Hanover loss to Douglas Freeman could help the Cavaliers vault into the top eight, while the Hawks would have to beat Highland Springs in Week 11 for any chance. However, a Hawks victory Friday could give them the #7 seed all by themselves. After falling to Powhatan, which tied them for 7th along with Atlee, Monacan now faces 1-7 James River. Atlee also has a 1-7 team to face in Mechanicsville, and Powhatan, too, faces 1-7 Clover Hill. Since Monacan and Powhatan are playing Class 5 teams, they'll receive two bonus points for playing up, something Atlee won't get. Chancellor can only play spoiler, and an upset of Eastern View would open up the race for #6.

Now, at the top. Varina has the toughest road, hosting Highland Springs, who is trying to catch Oscar Smith at the top of Class 6, Region A, and may not even with two final wins. Should Varina win, they'll move up to the top spot. If the Springers win, and both Dinwiddie and Huguenot win, it will come down to other game results involving teams on the Generals and Falcons schedule to see who would be #1 with a week to play.

OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 4D vs. 4A; 4C vs. 4B):

REGION 4A: 1) Phoebus 30.5; 2) Smithfield 24.5; 3) Hampton 24.333; 4) Churchland 21.875
REGION 4C: 1) John Champe 30.25; 2) Tuscarora 26.875; 3) Loudoun County 24.875; 4) Woodgrove 23.75
REGION 4D: 1) George Washington-Danville 28.125; 2) Jefferson Forest 27.125; 3) Sherando 26.667; 4) Handley 25.25

 

[EPJr]

NEXT WEEK:
#PlayoffProjectionFriday
We will be LIVE on social media crunching the numbers, projecting the region playoff fields and taking YOUR questions!
Details coming Monday!
Posted by robwitham

 

[EPJr]

THE BREAKDOWN: VHSL Football Region Standings Entering Week 11​

X--Clinched Playoff Berth
Z--Clinched Seed (can't move up or down)
CLASS 4, REGION B:

1) X--Varina (7-1) 33.0
2) X--Dinwiddie (8-1) 31.889
3) X--Huguenot (9-0) 31.778
4) X--King George (7-2) 28.778
5) X--Courtland (7-2) 28.222
6) X--Eastern View (6-3) 26.111
7) Hanover (6-3) 24.889
8) Powhatan (5-4) 24.0
---
9) Monacan (5-4) 23.889
10) Atlee (5-4) 23.778
11) Henrico (4-5) 22.556
12) Caroline (5-4) 22.222

NOTES: Remember, Varina's final point total will be divided by nine, not ten, after their Week 2 game was canceled. Twice. By two different teams. It's not that they asked for the extra bye week. Dinwiddie can clinch the top seed with a win over unbeaten Matoaca, and a win from either GW-Danville, North Stafford, or Colonial Heights. The Generals have the highest ceiling of possible point total after this week. Huguenot jumps Dinwiddie with a win over Monacan and a loss by the Generals. Patrick Henry must upset Varina for the Falcons to have a hope at #1. Before you think this region is all about these three teams, look out below. King George is red hot, while Courtland and Eastern View battle each other Friday, and it could be for the right to go to King George next Friday in the #4/#5 game. None of these three teams can crack the top three.

Then it gets nuts. Hanover needs a win over Highland Springs to clinch. If they don't, they'll need Huguenot to beat Monacan and Henrico to beat Atlee to possibly slide in. Powhatan has 1-8 Richmond School For The Arts. Mathematically, Atlee could win, Hanover and Monacan could lose, and the Raiders climb in, with Powhatan almost assuredly in. But if Monacan upsets Huguenot, the Indians are likely on the outside looking in.
Posted by robwitham at 4:03 PM