News Updated Playoff Scenarios

[wgarlick]

Updated Playoff Scenario's courtesy VISAA

DIVISION I

There are still too many variables to say much about Division I. Flint Hill has clinched a playoff spot (not necessarily a home game), but that's pretty much it. Benedictine can clinch a playoff spot with a win in either of their last two games. As seems to be traditional, the winner of the St. Chris/Collegiate game will almost definitely clinch a playoff spot, but that's not certain. Norfolk Academy can clinch a spot with wins over Collegiate and STAB.


Trinity and Potomac are mathematically still contending because they have such point-rich games left on their schedule (Trinity still has to play Blue Ridge and Potomac still has to play Maret). Neither of them could pass Flint Hill, but they are mathematically capable of passing the other contenders if things go badly for the other contenders. St. Stephen's & St. Agnes is also still mathematically contending, but they need a lot to go wrong for those ahead of them. Bishop O'Connell and the teams behind them are mathematically eliminated.

I know it sounds absurd that there's that much still on the table in Division I, but there is. Basically, wins by any of the Top 5 teams can eliminate those lower teams, so we'll get a lot of this cleared up after Week 10's games.


DIVISION II

Simply too much football left to play. As crazy as it sounds, not even North Cross has mathematically clinched a playoff berth yet. We'll have a clearer playoff picture after this week's games. The top 4 teams mostly control their own destiny-- they can clinch playoff spots with wins. In particular, wins this week by North Cross and Atlantic Shores will likely lock them into home games for the first round.


Cape Hatteras has informed Norfolk Christian that they will not play their finale. Norfolk Christian's staff is in the process of deciding whether to count that as a forfeit or not-- by my calculations, it will not make much of a difference either way. Norfolk Christian's schedule is so independent of the other contenders, I think they are likely to make it into the playoffs regardless of other results-- I'm just not comfortable calling that a mathematical certainty yet.

The big game in Division II is this week's Blue Ridge/R-MA game. This is a must-win game for R-MA and a loss by Blue Ridge would make their game with Trinity a must-win for Blue Ridge. There is an odd scenario where Blue Ridge beats R-MA and then loses to Trinity in Week 11; that leaves Isle of Wight an opening to jump Blue Ridge if Isle of Wight wins out and gets the right help from their defeated opponents. This would put Norfolk Christian at #3 and Isle of Wight at #4.


Overall, I think our likely playoff teams in D-II are North Cross, Atlantic Shores, the winner of Blue Ridge/R-MA, and Norfolk Christian, with the order TBD. Christchurch and the teams below them are mathematically eliminated.


DIVISION III

We have our four playoff teams: Quantico, Roanoke Catholic, Richmond Christian, and Fuqua. Quantico has clinched a first-round home game, but not necessarily the top seed. Roanoke Catholic can clinch a first-round home game with a win over BSH. Richmond Christian cannot catch Roanoke Catholic at that point, and Fuqua's destiny is too tied to Roanoke Catholic-- almost anything that helps Fuqua catch up would also help Catholic stay ahead.

Roanoke Catholic still has a shot at the top seed if they beat BSH AND Quantico's defeated opponents have a bad two weeks AND Roanoke Catholic's do well.

 

[rocketballz]

Cape Hatteras cancelled on Norfolk Christian on Senior day?? Chief, I know you and the people from North Cross hate to see that. LOL!

 

[LetsSee]

I would think NC would count the forfeit. They have a 7.88 average now and if they count the Cape Hatteras game they will at least get 9 points for a win over a D-II team. Will finish with at least a 8.00 average. As for IWA, if they miss the playoffs it will because of their weak schedule and the fact that they only played 9 games. No reason why they shouldn't be able to play 10 every year

 

[Chief62]

Even better if it helps to put Norfolk Christian in the four seed and North Cross can win out to keep the one seed...

On another topic, what would need to happen to get IOW to jump Blue Ridge? Obviously, Blue Ridge would have to lose to Trinity but what do IOW opponents have to do?

 

[Chief62]

I would think NC would count the forfeit. They have a 7.88 average now and if they count the Cape Hatteras game they will at least get 9 points for a win over a D-II team. Will finish with at least a 8.00 average. As for IWA, if they miss the playoffs it will because of their weak schedule and the fact that they only played 9 games. No reason why they shouldn't be able to play 10 every year

Maybe IWA can schedule Hatteras this week and pick up a cool 9 points... Heard Hatteras has an open week this week.

 

[smashmouth77]

As for IWA, if they miss the playoffs it will because of their weak schedule and the fact that they only played 9 games. No reason why they shouldn't be able to play 10 every year

LetsSee, compared to what teams is IWA schedule considered weak? Weaker than North Cross and Blue Ridge yes, I agree. Are you attempting to say Norfolk Christian has a stronger schedule? Just trying to see where the jab at IWA comes from out of nowhere. IWA was dropped by Kenston Forest, Brunswick, Broadwater and HRA after last season. They picked up all D2 teams to replace them: Fredericksburg, VES, GCA, and Fishburne. Who knew that VES end up winless and GCA would be ranked 359th out of 363 teams in VA.

 

[JOEWM2004]

LetsSee, compared to what teams is IWA schedule considered weak? Weaker than North Cross and Blue Ridge yes, I agree. Are you attempting to say Norfolk Christian has a stronger schedule? Just trying to see where the jab at IWA comes from out of nowhere. IWA was dropped by Kenston Forest, Brunswick, Broadwater and HRA after last season. They picked up all D2 teams to replace them: Fredericksburg, VES, GCA, and Fishburne. Who knew that VES end up winless and GCA would be ranked 359th out of 363 teams in VA.

Smashmouth77: LetsSee's jab at IWA is not out of the blue. That's pretty much what he does on this board.

 

[smashmouth77]

Smashmouth77: LetsSee's jab at IWA is not out of the blue. That's pretty much what he does on this board.

Well, IWA is doing just fine. Staring at a 7-2 season after losing 12 seniors from last year's state championship team, is pretty darn good. Maybe LetsSee should worry about his own team instead of IWA.

 

[d4footballfan]

As far as rankings go, I believe Maxpreps is more accurate than VISAA at ranking the teams for playoffs. For expample, in D2 Maxpreps playoff teams in order are North Cross, Blue Ridge, Atlantic Shores, Randolph Macon, and Norfolk Christian. VISSA has it North Cross, Shores, Blue Ridge, Norfolk Christian, RMA, and IWA. I seen 90% of D2 teams play and I agree with maxpreps. Norfolk Christian is very young and is going to be good, but they are not quite there yet. North Cross and Blue Ridge are the cream of the crop. Shores is a little behind those two. The rest of the division cannot beat those 3 teams, but IWA is the best of the rest. I have seen IWA, Norf Christian, RMA, Church, FCS all play and IWA would be them by at least 2 TDs. But with the VISSA scoring system, Norfolk Christian will get the berth.

 

[LetsSee]

Now I got 2 IWA people after me. smashmouth77, where did you come from? Little touchy for a newcomer aren't ya? Everyone knows JOEWM2004 is going to defend IWA to the end. Would you say IWA has a tough schedule this year? I know you can't predict what teams are going to be like each year but I heard that NSA tried to schedule IWA and they declined. Why travel to Fishburne or VES when you have a DII team right down the road? Plus NSA lost 14 or 15 seniors and their coach last year. Why did all of those schools drop IWA after last year?

 

[smashmouth77]

I never said their schedule was tough. I only questioned on what facts or comparison did you base your comment's about IWA missing out on playoffs due to a weak schedule. I know nothing about IWA as far as how they came up with their schedule or who attempted to schedule them. I simply went on maxpreps and compared the schedules for 2015 and 2016. I will say their schedule this year looks tougher than last years when you see the schools on it, but it doesn't always play out that way. As far as only playing 9 games, it appears that 10 out of the 17 teams in D2 this year play 9 games or less. Maybe you should host a coaches clinic and teach coaches who do not have a 10 game schedule about the benefits of playing 10 games. Just leave out the part that you could possibly end up with double digit losses.

 

[LetsSee]

Let me try and clarify my earlier post. Would you agree that IWA's schedule is weak this year? To go 7-2 and not make the playoffs is contributed to the lack of quality opponents on the schedule. Its just the way it worked out. Nobody knew that VES and GCA were going to probably go winless this year. Its just my opinion, but if IWA had NSA on their schedule and won they would have been in the playoffs, no doubt. Earlier someone stated that NC is young and will make playoffs as the 4 seed but IWA is the 4th best team in the state. Probably true but it looks like they will be on the outside looking in come November. Its just the way the point system works.

 

[rocketballz]

Bottom line is: Regardless of whose schedule is tough or weak, 4 teams go to the playoffs according to how VISAA scores their wins and losses. Do the best teams go to the playoffs and get seeded properly? Not all the time. With 17 teams in D2, and only 4 teams going, which is ridiculous, it is difficult this year. Norfolk Christain had a good year at 7-2, IWA had a good year , RMA has had a good year. Congrats to all the teams who gave been competing for that final spot all year. The good thing about not getting the 4 seed is you do not have to travel to North Cross and get a beatdown.

 

[smashmouth77]

I will agree with you LetsSee with the NSA statement. If NSA had been on IWA schedule instead of GCA, VES, or BSH they would have made the playoffs. Or if the IWA @ Surry game had counted as a real game, they would have been in. As far as schedule strength, if IWA played Norfolk Christian's schedule, they would be in at 8-1, probably only losing to Norfolk Academy. If IWA played a Hargrave, Christchurch, RMA, NSA, Covenant or any middle of the road team in D2 with three or more wins instead of GCA, BSH or VES they would slide into the 4 spot. IWA was only 1 team off this year from being a playoff team. I am sure they, as well as many other teams, will adjust their schedule and get it right next year. If the VISAA has any sense, they will even out the divisions a little better. It makes no sense to have 12 teams in D1, 17 in D2, and 8 in D3 and take 4 teams in each division. If only 4 go in each division, it should be 12, 13, 12 as far as number breakdown goes.

 

[Chief62]

Yeah, yeah... This whole IWA and Norfolk Christian thing is cute. But cut to the chase... Will Garlick said there was a chance that both would make the playoffs if Blue Ridge loses to Trinity. What has to happen for IWA to make playoffs over Blue Ridge. Certainly an injustice but I will be happy not go see Blue Ridge again. They are a D1 team in D2 clothing this year. Not saying they are not a D2 team, just saying this year they are really good.

 

[Chief62]

Check separate thread on VISAA divisions.

 

[rocketballz]

Chief62, there is a chance both IWA and Norfolk get to playoffs, but that chance is less likely than you getting struck by lightning while watching your NC Raiders lose to HRA this weekend. Hope that clears it up for you

 

[Chief62]

Chief62, there is a chance both IWA and Norfolk get to playoffs, but that chance is less likely than you getting struck by lightning while watching your NC Raiders lose to HRA this weekend. Hope that clears it up for you

But we have a chance...