VHSL Average Margin of Victory Over The Years

[Virginia HS Football Fan]

Hello all.

I am posting here because I think this is the most active board so hopefully someone has the information.

It appears to me that blowouts are becoming more commonplace every year. And the size of the blowouts are getting bigger along with the number of shutouts.

Does anyone know the year-over-year average score/margin of victory in the VHSL? I guess the easiest way to do it is to have the yearly scores listed straight down in an Excel Spreadsheet and divide the total points by the total number of games played.

It feels like the average margin of victory has increased by at least 14 to 21 points since the 1980s. However, I may be off.

 

[1MoreHokie]

People just throw the ball more, that's all. Even when you're a better team, running the ball just means fewer possessions. You run 6-8 plays, you get a few first downs and you punt and that can be four minutes off the clock without trying. You throw 6-8 plays, you get a few first downs and then punt and that's a couple minutes. You're more likely to find success through the air on this level as well, kids pass for squat when they're young and haven't hit puberty, they're more adept at stopping the run.

Unless you're out here running the flexbone or a veer or something and just beyond dedicated to the run, you pass more than you did 30-40 years ago. Heck, when Salem played Pulaski a week ago they ran about two or three plays in the first series and spent the rest of the first half strictly passing and this is Salem we're talking about here.

I tend to doubt there's more shutouts these days but if there is I'd simply say that due to the change in how the game is played (more passing less running and especially less three yards and a cloud-type running) it's increasingly less common to win by a FG so those have been de-emphasized and teams go for it on 4th now practically every time if they're inside the opposing 40 and so some of those fail and instead of taking 3 that gets them really no closer to a comeback they just take the 0 and try again. This also compounds into the above with more and more possessions. Initially in a game, coaches test the waters and are less likely to be risky in a close game but get down 14-0 to a Salem or Varina or whomever and those coaches now have to start thinking of how they're going to catch up. This leads to more risky playcalls which leads to more TODs or TOs which leads to more points and bigger blowouts.

 

[CRF4Dan]

Hello all.

I am posting here because I think this is the most active board so hopefully someone has the information.

It appears to me that blowouts are becoming more commonplace every year. And the size of the blowouts are getting bigger along with the number of shutouts.

Does anyone know the year-over-year average score/margin of victory in the VHSL? I guess the easiest way to do it is to have the yearly scores listed straight down in an Excel Spreadsheet and divide the total points by the total number of games played.

It feels like the average margin of victory has increased by at least 14 to 21 points since the 1980s. However, I may be off.

It's pretty clear what is going on... if you look over my lifetime (I'm 44) football has trended more from a defensive oriented game to offensive heavy game. The old mantra "defense wins championships" does not ring true as it did even 20 years ago.

 

[SFUWO]

Hello all.

I am posting here because I think this is the most active board so hopefully someone has the information.

It appears to me that blowouts are becoming more commonplace every year. And the size of the blowouts are getting bigger along with the number of shutouts.

Does anyone know the year-over-year average score/margin of victory in the VHSL? I guess the easiest way to do it is to have the yearly scores listed straight down in an Excel Spreadsheet and divide the total points by the total number of games played.

It feels like the average margin of victory has increased by at least 14 to 21 points since the 1980s. However, I may be off.

True state contenders usually win big in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs as well

 

[BleedingNavy]

Per the request of a fan I did some my math on Coach Mills led Dinwiddie teams. I was shocked to find out with the exception of his first two years (2005 and 2006) Dinwiddie has a scoring average of at least 30 points a game for 15 years. This year will be 16 straight. His early use of the spread (Tony Franklin System) changed the game forever in the Central District. Thomas Dale was the last to change, but everybody in the area now uses a form of the read option. @Virginia HS Football Fan, as previously stated passing is the "new norm" and thus higher scores. The key is still defense. Now it's not who has the bigger d line or sound linebackers to stop the run. It's who has the athletes to cover man to man.

 

[1MoreHokie]

Salem

Years 1977-1982

PF: 548
PA: 1189
MOV: -11 ppg (9-20 average score)
Shutouts: 2
Times shut out: 18
Record: 17-42-1

The dark years. Stats here remain fairly meaningless as Salem was a new school and had not yet found the identity it has kept for the past four decades.

Years 1983-2003

PF: 6492
PA: 2401
MOV: 16 ppg (26-10 average score)
Shutouts: 74
Times shut out: 7
Record: 200-51-3

The Willis White years. 21 years representing the true birth of the program. However, this was SWVA in the 80s and 90s so you ran the ball, then you ran the ball again, then when you were done you ran the ball some more. Of note, White's teams posted a shutout on defense at least once a season every year he was at Salem and were only shut out during the regular season twice.

Years 2004-2022 (current season week 9)

PF: 8116
PA: 3453
MOV: 20 ppg (34-14 average score)
Shutouts: 36
Times shut out: 4
Record: 209-32

The Magenbauer and Holter years. 18.5 years of football building on the foundation White laid. The change in offense trickles down from the pros and college to finally hit a stubborn and proud I formation program yielding a 31% increase in points per game scored, although it also trickles down to everyone else and yields a 40% increase in opponents' scoring as well. More than half (54%) of Salem's total offensive points ever scored are done so in fewer than half of their total games played as a program (41%) but at the same time allowing nearly half (49%) of the program's total points. The number of shutouts halves but so does the number of times shut out.

So there's a solid forty years of data split almost evenly between the two major eras of a program who has retained continued success throughout. Would seem to suggest that the modern offense is indeed responsible for a larger gap in MOV for a variety of reasons although it also suggests shutouts are less frequent (probably owing to increased number of possessions and higher strike potential from the passing game), although obviously Salem is but one single point of data.

 

[BleedingNavy]

Salem

Years 1977-1982

PF: 548
PA: 1189
MOV: -11 ppg (9-20 average score)
Shutouts: 2
Times shut out: 18
Record: 17-42-1

The dark years. Stats here remain fairly meaningless as Salem was a new school and had not yet found the identity it has kept for the past four decades.

Years 1983-2003

PF: 6492
PA: 2401
MOV: 16 ppg (26-10 average score)
Shutouts: 74
Times shut out: 7
Record: 200-51-3

The Willis White years. 21 years representing the true birth of the program. However, this was SWVA in the 80s and 90s so you ran the ball, then you ran the ball again, then when you were done you ran the ball some more. Of note, White's teams posted a shutout on defense at least once a season every year he was at Salem and were only shut out during the regular season twice.

Years 2004-2022 (current season week 9)

PF: 8116
PA: 3453
MOV: 20 ppg (34-14 average score)
Shutouts: 36
Times shut out: 4
Record: 209-32

The Magenbauer and Holter years. 18.5 years of football building on the foundation White laid. The change in offense trickles down from the pros and college to finally hit a stubborn and proud I formation program yielding a 31% increase in points per game scored, although it also trickles down to everyone else and yields a 40% increase in opponents' scoring as well. More than half (54%) of Salem's total offensive points ever scored are done so in fewer than half of their total games played as a program (41%) but at the same time allowing nearly half (49%) of the program's total points. The number of shutouts halves but so does the number of times shut out.

So there's a solid forty years of data split almost evenly between the two major eras of a program who has retained continued success throughout. Would seem to suggest that the modern offense is indeed responsible for a larger gap in MOV for a variety of reasons although it also suggests shutouts are less frequent (probably owing to increased number of possessions and higher strike potential from the passing game), although obviously Salem is but one single point of data.

Awesome job on this. I enjoyed it thoroughly. Can you shed some light on whether you think Salem is a legit contender for another state title run this year.

 

[SFUWO]

Awesome job on this. I enjoyed it thoroughly. Can you shed some light on whether you think Salem is a legit contender for another state title run this year.

Salem usually hits their stride going into the playoffs. I would say they are a legit contender. Salem will be a hard out for any team in Region D and C. EC Glass and Louisa could definitely make their case but that's why we play the games I would give the edge to Varina and Dinwiddie at this time.
My order of contenders
Varina
Dinwiddie
Salem
Tuscarora
Kings Fork

 

[1MoreHokie]

I'd favor D to make it to state finals this year. Just who comes out of there is more difficult to say. Salem will go as far as the lines take them. They've been suspect at times this year and the offense has mostly been able to bail them out due to the incredibly explosive nature of the skill position talent. They're quite balanced this year offensively, makes defending them quite difficult. A ball control offense can keep them in check, however.

I'd buy contender this year but don't believe they're a favorite. However, if they can successfully replace Wilson next year at QB then I would call them a favorite. They'll be lethal next year.

 

[-COUNTRY-CLUB-JOE-]

It's pretty clear what is going on... if you look over my lifetime (I'm 44) football has trended more from a defensive oriented game to offensive heavy game. The old mantra "defense wins championships" does not ring true as it did even 20 years ago.

It definitely has trended in that direction. I will say this, though, if you have a sound defense, and a good kicker, that can be a lethal combination. I've seen some really good teams in that mold. Mostly because, at a certain level, you're going to run into teams with some speed and athleticism. But if you can roll out a defense that slows them down, gives their offense a short field, even if they're pedestrian, if they can kick long FGs, and then turn around and kick the ball out of the end zone, that can be really debilitating for the other team.

 

[mike salem]

Salem usually hits their stride going into the playoffs. I would say they are a legit contender. Salem will be a hard out for any team in Region D and C. EC Glass and Louisa could definitely make their case but that's why we play the games I would give the edge to Varina and Dinwiddie at this time.
My order of contenders
Varina
Dinwiddie
Salem
Tuscarora
Kings Fork

I'd throw King George in that top 5 or 6 as well.

 

[BleedingNavy]

Thanks at @SFUWO and @1MoreHokie. I am starting to really enjoy getting back on Preps and having sound discussions. Salem has been a top program for years and you guys have a lot to be proud of. I hope Dinwiddie gets another shot at the Spartans this year (revenge from 2016), but just as you previously stated about Salem the Generals may be a year away. I am not saying we can't beat Varina, King George, Hanover, PH, or Kings Fork, but Region B and the state semifinal is going to be a gauntlet. @1MoreHokie, I stole your format and will be offering a Dinwiddie MOV comparison later today. Thought you would enjoy it like I enjoyed your break down. Have a blessed day guys.

 

[BleedingNavy]

I'd throw King George in that top 5 or 6 as well.

Totally agree. They have tons of talent on both sides of the ball.

 

[CRF4Dan]

Thanks at @SFUWO and @1MoreHokie. I am starting to really enjoy getting back on Preps and having sound discussions. Salem has been a top program for years and you guys have a lot to be proud of. I hope Dinwiddie gets another shot at the Spartans this year (revenge from 2016), but just as you previously stated about Salem the Generals may be a year away. I am not saying we can't beat Varina, King George, Hanover, PH, or Kings Fork, but Region B and the state semifinal is going to be a gauntlet. @1MoreHokie, I stole your format and will be offering a Dinwiddie MOV comparison later today. Thought you would enjoy it like I enjoyed your break down. Have a blessed day guys.

If you feel like Dinwiddie is a year away, that's a scary proposition for those in 4B come next season as they look tremendously good this season.

 

[southbottomU]

People just throw the ball more, that's all. Even when you're a better team, running the ball just means fewer possessions. You run 6-8 plays, you get a few first downs and you punt and that can be four minutes off the clock without trying. You throw 6-8 plays, you get a few first downs and then punt and that's a couple minutes. You're more likely to find success through the air on this level as well, kids pass for squat when they're young and haven't hit puberty, they're more adept at stopping the run.

Unless you're out here running the flexbone or a veer or something and just beyond dedicated to the run, you pass more than you did 30-40 years ago. Heck, when Salem played Pulaski a week ago they ran about two or three plays in the first series and spent the rest of the first half strictly passing and this is Salem we're talking about here.

I tend to doubt there's more shutouts these days but if there is I'd simply say that due to the change in how the game is played (more passing less running and especially less three yards and a cloud-type running) it's increasingly less common to win by a FG so those have been de-emphasized and teams go for it on 4th now practically every time if they're inside the opposing 40 and so some of those fail and instead of taking 3 that gets them really no closer to a comeback they just take the 0 and try again. This also compounds into the above with more and more possessions. Initially in a game, coaches test the waters and are less likely to be risky in a close game but get down 14-0 to a Salem or Varina or whomever and those coaches now have to start thinking of how they're going to catch up. This leads to more risky playcalls which leads to more TODs or TOs which leads to more points and bigger blowouts.

Excellent post

 

[BleedingNavy]

If you feel like Dinwiddie is a year away, that's a scary proposition for those in 4B come next season as they look tremendously good this season.

I am not trying to diminish their chances. I am just cautiously optimistic. Dinwiddie is very talented and could win it all. The defense has played together for a few years, certainly cover very well, and have not given up a lot of points. The offense is led sophomore qb Harry Dalton, Jr. Rb Tucker and jr. wr Wiggins and honestly they are really good. Dinwiddie does make youthful mistakes and tend to start slow. Maturity and depth is why I am so excited about next year. Seedings this year will be so important. Dinwiddie matches up well with Varina and EV. I don't think Hanover and PH are better than Dinwiddie, their styles tend bother me. I know King George is very good. I will have a more complete view after watching video of their game with EV. I simply prefer to support the kids, but remain a humble fan.

 

[BleedingNavy]

Excellent post

Looks who came calling. Nice to hear from you sir.

 

[ClarkeFan83]

I am not trying to diminish their chances. I am just cautiously optimistic. Dinwiddie is very talented and could win it all. The defense has played together for a few years, certainly cover very well, and have not given up a lot of points. The offense is led sophomore qb Harry Dalton, Jr. Rb Tucker and jr. wr Wiggins and honestly they are really good. Dinwiddie does make youthful mistakes and tend to start slow. Maturity and depth is why I am so excited about next year. Seedings this year will be so important. Dinwiddie matches up well with Varina and EV. I don't think Hanover and PH are better than Dinwiddie, their styles tend bother me. I know King George is very good. I will have a more complete view after watching video of their game with EV. I simply prefer to support the kids, but remain a humble fan.

You and DP have been cautiously optimistic for years now!!!🤣

 

[racindan4u]

I'd throw King George in that top 5 or 6 as well.

I left them out in earlier post but they will contend I think

 

[BleedingNavy]

I copied this format from @1MoreHokie awesome post and while doing the research I really was interested in seeing how a traditional offense like Salem's (Prostyle/Power I) numbers matched up with the spread. What I learned is it doesn't matter what offense you run it's more about how well you run it. Both of these teams (Salem and Dinwiddie) have consistently produced offensively for at least 15 years. Other teams like Louisa, EC Glass, Sherando, GW Danville, etc. can say the same. Thanks again @VAHSFootballFan for this awesome thread.

Dinwiddie Comparison

Dark Ages
1980-2004

Some good years and some very awful years. Dinwiddie went through six coaches during this period and only two had winning records. In fact, the last two had a combined record of 4-35 in four seasons. Ugh!!!!!! In 2000, Coach John Curia did lead the Generals to the State Championship game where they lost to Heritage Newport News.

Record 121-91-6 (24 years) average 5.04 wins per year.
4,266 points scored
3,244 points against
MOV: +4.68 ppg (19.56 – 14.88 average score)
Shutouts: 33
Times Shutout 25

Billy Mills Era
2005-2022

With the exception of the first two years, Coach Mills has produced 15 years of winning football. His high-octane offense certainly changed the Dinwiddie program for the better. In 17 years at the helm, Mills has made the playoffs 14 times. Unfortunately, his 13-year playoff run ended with the shortened spring season in 2021. Mills 2013 State Championship team have the Dinwiddie team record margin of victory (39.47) by scoring 719 points while only surrendering 127. Three other teams (2016, 2017, and fall of 2021) in this era have recorded MOV’s over 30 points. So far this season the Generals margin of victory is 45.9. 347 points scored and 30 points given up with three shutouts.

Record 152-57 (17 years) Average 8.94 wins per year.
7,544 points scored
3,841 points against
MOV: 17.72 (36.09 – 18.37 average score)
Shutouts: 26
Times Shutout: 3

 

[BleedingNavy]

If you feel like Dinwiddie is a year away, that's a scary proposition for those in 4B come next season as they look tremendously good this season.

I may be wrong. Prince George is not a good team, but Dinwiddie has scored 5 TD's tonight on their first seven plays. It's 35-0 already.

 

[BleedingNavy]

Well it ended brutally. 58-8 Dinwiddie. The subs and JV allowed a long run on a darn busted play. The good thing about the score was the reaction of the starting defense when PG scored. They were super pissed and will have Coach Mills doing crab crawls Monday.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Well it ended brutally. 55-7 Dinwiddie. The subs and JV allowed a long run on a darn busted play. The good thing about the score was the reaction of the starting defense when PG scored. They were super pissed and will have Coach Mills doing crab crawls Monday.

Sorry I told you wrong last night, but the final was 58-8.

 

[10iceiceice]

The playoffs will be a different story at least for the the second round. I've seen dinwiddie, varina, and King folks and King George hanover all are solid tough teams with talent. Anyone of them could go to the state finals. Just better come to play or you will be going home.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I wish I could tell you that the game last night was a measure of how good Dinwiddie is. But that is not the case. But it speaks volumes about the problems at PG.

Let me start by saying that PG has noticeably larger kids than Dinwiddie. And considerably more of them. But, that is where the accolades stop.

There is a team wide deficiency in the basics on PG. Blocking and tackling techniques were completely non-exisitant. And I mean completely. You have seen on TV when a couple of adults are playing with children and how inept the kids look in comparison? Well, that was what the game looked like last night.

Make no mistake, I’m not being critical of the kids. They can only play the way they are coached. And therein lies the problem. I don’t know the head coach, but it’s been widely circulated that the sole reason that he got the job was because he is closely kin to a member of the PG Board of Supervisors. In fact, I heard last night that the Coach at Colonia Heights was all but hired for the PG job and that was squashed at the last minute so that this fellow could have the job. (It might has been part of the reason that CH beat PG so soundly of few weeks ago).

If you are shocked, don’t be. PG has put “connections” ahead of ability as a primary hiring criteria for as long as I can remember.

And who cares? I do for one. Because it punishes the kids. Last night was a perfect example. They placed a very capable bunch of Class 5 kids on the field without proper coaching and preparedness to get their brains beat out, simply to satisfy egos and “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.”

Shame on the leaders, shame on the boosters, and shame on the parents for allowing this to take place.

 

[10iceiceice]

I've seen teams run the score up on teams and coaches leave there starters in until late 4th quarter which I think is outrageous so when this happens they will probably get it back in the playoffs when they lose.