There was excitement to conclude Thursday night with Eastside winning its first ever state title, while Lancaster rallied from an 11-point first half deficit behind the brilliance of Troy Henderson and Daveon Smith to stun Auburn and repeat as State Champs. Meanwhile, Robin Dotson at Central-Wise Girls and Ty White with the John Marshall Boys continue their mastery of the Class 2 scene, winning comfortable in title games.
We now highlight the games for State Championship Friday on March 8, 2024. The four games at the Siegel Center on the campus of Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond include a couple of defending State Champs - Hampton Girls in Class 4 and Northside in Class 3 - along with programs that have won state titles in recent memory like the Hampton Boys and Lake Taylor Boys, while Woodgrove Girls try to grab an elusive crown and Liberty Christian Girls attempt to become the only VHSL team, male or female, for basketball this season to go undefeated.
A quick review of how the Picks did on Thursday 3/7/2024...
Hatfield's State Final Picks for Thursday 3/7/2024 Total: 4-0 (100%)
Hatfield's Boys State Final Picks for Thursday 3/7/2024 Total: 2-0 (100%)
Hatfield's Girls State Final Picks for Thursday 3/7/2024 Total: 2-0 (100%)
Hatfield's 2024 State Tourney Boys Record = 32-6 (84.2%)
Hatfield's 2024 Playoff Boys Record = 173-41 (80.8%)
Hatfield's 2024 Girls State Playoff Record = 12-2 (85.7%)
... All four games were correctly predicted on Thursday, including razor close on the exact margins for both the Lancaster/Auburn Boys and Eastside/Brunswick Girls matchups in Class 1.
Can we duplicate it on Friday?
12:30 PM - CLASS 4 GIRLS: Hampton Crabbers (23-3) vs. Woodgrove Wolverines (28-1)
Hampton Keys to Victory:
#1 - Avoid Slow Start: This is a slightly different Hampton team than the one that beat Pulaski County 75-63 behind 35 points from Kennedy Harris, who's now at George Mason, to win last year's Class 4 State Championship. Coach Shanda Bailey's team gets collective scoring, but it has had some slow starts at times, particularly one that almost doomed them in the State Semis against Monacan, where they had to overcome a 15-point third quarter deficit to win 66-56. They can harass opponents with their defense throughout and hold foes to just 32.3 PPG. It's important they get off to a solid start with the tone setter being 5'5" senior PG Dreyana Foster (10.7 PPG), a 2nd Team All-Region performer.
#2 - Defend the 3-Point Shot: This looks like without question the best three-point shooting team Hampton has faced all season, which is saying something because of the quality of some of the foes they see regularly in Tidewater. Consider that Woodgrove drilled 18 three-pointers in a game against Loudoun Valley on February 2nd, which broke a 23-year old single-game VHSL record. They're sinking 8.7 three-pointers per contest, so cutting that in half would do wonders for the Lady Crabbers to get their fourth state title since 2001.
#3 - Paint Production: As great as Woodgrove is shooting the outside shot, the Wolverines also convert 53.4% of their two-point field goal tries. Yet, to offset the 3's, the Hampton wants to use its size as a big factor. Four players 6-foot-tall or bigger dot this Hampton roster, including junior Kaliya 'KD' Perry (14.2 PPG), the Region 4A Player of the Year, and fellow 1st Team All-Region selections like senior Jaiden Hunter (14.3 PPG) and freshman Lyla Ames (14 PPG). They want to control the boards. Even beyond them, the guards can definitely help with the paint production, such as seniors Corynn Tynes and Dajanelle Linton-Robinson as well as freshmen Jiana Price and Jakyra Bienaime (8.8 PPG).
Woodgrove Keys to Victory:
#1 - Utilize the 3 Ball: Coach Derek Fisher has a special group of shooters with six players that have made at least 20 three-pointers. In total, they've knocked down a staggering 252 three-pointers. Part of that equation includes the headliners in 5'10" senior guard Sadie Shores (18.8 PPG, 8 RPG, 5.4 APG) and 6'1" senior point guard Angelina Nice (18.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.8 APG). Both have earned Player of the Year honors on a district level in their careers, which will continue beyond this level with Shores having signed with Stony Brook and Nice headed to Radford. Their top three-point shooter in terms of makes is actually 5'10" junior center Vanessa Blankenship (9.6 PPG, 50 3's).
#2 - Keep Hampton Off the Foul Line: What enabled the Crabbers to hold off Pulaski in last year's State Final was their dead-eye shooting from the charity stripe in the form of going a perfect 14-for-14 with Harris going 8-of-8. Even in last week's State Semis vs. Monacan, they were 16-of-19 on the night and 11-for-13 during the fourth quarter to salt things away. On the season, the Wolverines are actually shooting just 59.1% from the foul line, though it hasn't hindered them from scoring at a high clip in terms of putting up 75.7 PPG. Make Hampton earn the points on jumpers rather than by stopping the clock and scoring at the foul line.
#3 - Finish Strong: It's so essential the Woodgrove closes out well, both offensively and defensively against a Hampton team that can be tenacious defensively, plus wants to pound the ball inside the paint. They have to be able to handle the pressure and not turn the ball over at a high rate because the Lady Crabbers feed off of those miscues. To take some of the burden off standouts Nice and Shores, big efforts from freshman 5'10" guard Amaya Ramey (8.4 PPG), a 1st Team All-Catoctin District pick, and sophomore 5'8" guard Lyla Brown (6.3 PPG), a 2nd Team All-District choice, would go a long way.
Hat's Pick - Woodgrove 66-61
2:30 PM - CLASS 4 BOYS: Hampton Crabbers (24-2) vs. Tuscarora Huskies (25-3)
Hampton Keys to Victory:
#1 - Work Inside-Out: It's clear that the Crabbers want to start its effort in the painted area and go from there. Both Kay and Clarke can score over top of defenders the Huskies have, while Baugh, Johnson and Taft all have the ability drive in the lane and create. More than anything, this Hampton team wants to set a physical tone against a Huskies squad known for its skill and outside shooting, deemed more of a finesse bunch.
#2 - Locate Johnson: While the Crabbers have seen some quality competition within and outside the Peninsula District throughout the season, one can certainly argue that Jayden Johnson is the best shooter and / or scorer they will have faced. Jayden not only put up 34 points vs. Broad Run in the region semis, but lit up Dominion for school records of 35 points and nine three-pointers on Senior Night. In addition to finding him on defense, they need to get their own Johnson, Malik, in the flow on offense to slash and attack.
#3 - In Baugh We Trust: When Hampton ended King's Fork's 44-game home winning streak in early February, it was Baugh directing the attack with 23 points. He steadied them with eight points in the first quarter that night and knocked down some critical free-throws. He's not fallen in love with trying to score either. The veteran floor leader has been the facilitator that Coach Brown wants with seven assists per contest, up from three per game during the regular season. His ability to make those around him better helps the Crabbers reach their full potential offensively.
Tuscarora Keys to Victory:
#1 - Neutralize Hampton's Size: With the Crabbers boasting four rotation players between 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-8, the Huskies must find a way to slow them down, or better yet, cancel out that advantage in terms of height. Only one player is 6-foot-1 or taller, though that should not totally intimidate this Tuscarora team because they beat Charlottesville on the road in the State Tournament quarterfinals, 72-58. The Black Knights possessed two formidable post players that checked in at 6-foot-11 and 6-foot-4, along with a silky-smooth 6-foot-4 scoring two-guard. Making Hampton play from behind early can help this effort greatly.
#2 - Win the 3-Point Line: Coming in, Jayden Johnson has drained 91 three-pointers on 42% shooting from behind the arc to go with 81% at the foul line. T.J. Duggan has connected on 56 3's on 39% shooting from long distance to go with 82% from the charity stripe. When those two get hot together, look out. The Huskies know it can be a long night for the opposition, so outscoring the Crabbers by a bundle behind the three-point is their best path capturing the Championship trophy.
#3 - One & Done: One of the main reasons Tuscarora lost an early December matchup to West Potomac 67-62 after leading 37-28 at intermission and 57-49 through three quarters of play was how well the Wolverines extended possessions. That came via 17 offensive rebounds as well as 25-of-41 shooting from the foul line. In this setting, the Huskies cannot afford to give Hampton extra chances and must get back in transition defensively.
Hat's Pick - Hampton 64-54
6 PM - CLASS 3 GIRLS: Liberty Christian Bulldogs (26-0) vs. Meridian Mustangs (22-5)
Liberty Christian Keys to Victory:
#1 - Ride the Dynamic Duo: The tremendous tandem of 6'2" senior center Emmy Stout (16 PPG, 9.5 RPG with 20 PPG, 14.4 RPG in playoffs) and 5'8" senior guard Avery Mills (22.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.7 APG, 3.5 SPG) make the LCA Bulldogs go. Mills was the Region 3C Player of the Year and entered the State Semis a blistering 106-of-250 from three-point distance on the season. She exploded for 35 points in their victory over reigning two-time State Champ Carroll County in the quarterfinal round. Meanwhile, Stout had 31 points and 19 boards against Abingdon in the State Semis and is putting up 25.5 PPG and nearly 20 boards a contest during the State Playoffs.
#2 - Run Friesen Off the 3-Point Line: Junior 5'9" guard/forward Ellie Friesen (15.2 PPG) of Meridian loves to shoot it and does so with the ultimate confidence. In fact, on the season she's made 79 three-pointers, arriving to the Mustangs after spending her freshman year at O'Connell and becoming a more well-rounded player this winter. With her making 79 of the team's 133 3's - that's 59.4% - it would be wise for LCA to keep her from doing damage and testing the others, who are a combined 27% from behind the arc.
#3 - Turn the Mustangs Over: On the season, Meridian is turning it over just 11.8 times per game. That might not seem like a whole lot, but the LCA defense can be disruptive when it wants to be, yielding just 33.5 PPG while scoring 65.2 PPG as a team. In fact, 24 of their wins have been by double-digits because of how they put the foot on the necks of the opposition early in games. LCA's top six players turn it over just 5.9 times per game, but they exert themselves at both ends and combine to pile up 9.7 steals per contest. That's extra possessions, which are so precious in a elimination basketball.
Meridian Keys to Victory:
#1 - Crisp Ball Movement: Like Coach Heather Stephens of LCA, Meridian Head Coach Chris Carrico preaches playing unselfishly and sharing the ball. Meridian won a state title in 2021 and lost by five points in 2022 to Carroll County. This program expects to be playing meaningful games in the month of March and their 13.7 assists per game tell plenty about the success they're enjoying. Keep that going and try to get upwards of 15 dimes to loosen up a stingy LCA defense. The top distributor with 136 assists is senior 6-foot-tall forward Maureen 'Mo' Tremblay (11.9 PPG, 10.3 RPG), named both the Northwestern District and Region 3B Player of the Year.
#2 - Convert the Freebies: With the Mustangs averaging 52.6 points per game on the season and winning by 12.6 PPG during the playoffs, they know to keep that trend going in a positive direction and become the first time all season to take down LCA, delivering at the free-throw line is critical. As a team, they're making only 59.3% of their free-throws. Charlotte Lieu (8.6 PPG), a 5'7" freshman guard, has been the most dependable at the foul line, making 78.3% to date. Even Tremblay, who is in the State Final Four round or later for the third time in her career, has made strides from a free-throw shooting perspective.
#3 - Contain Mills & Stout: This Meridian team has had a couple of comebacks in these playoffs, rallying in the State Tournament quarterfinals to defeat Lafayette 52-41 and also doing the same to beat Lake Taylor in the State Semis, 59-53. It's going to take even more than just Tremblay or Friesen and Lieu to get it done against the lethal combo of Mills and Stout. Nora Stufft (7.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG), a 5'10" junior forward, is one of those players that brings the intangibles, energy and a high motor since returning from a knee injury early in the season.
Hat's Pick - Liberty Christian 64-50
8 PM - CLASS 3 BOYS: Lake Taylor Titans (27-2; 25-1) vs. Northside Vikings (27-3)
Lake Taylor Keys to Victory:
#1 - Make Free-Throws Count: Back in 2016, the Titans were haunted by going 6-of-12 from the foul line, including 2-for-6 in the closing minutes as a 12-point third quarter lead evaporated in the Championship vs. a Monacan team they handled by double-figures during the regional playoffs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs went 13-of-19 from the foul line and 11-for-13 to close. However, when the Titans outlasted Handley for the 2018 title, they made 18-of-27 free-throws and 8-for-11 to finish in a game that went to 2 OT's. The Judges went just 17-for-31 from the stripe and 4-of-12 in the OT's. Don't leave points at the line.
#2 - Contain Cy: A 5.14 assist-to-turnover ratio from a point guard is mighty impressive and this 11th grader for the Vikings whose father Jermaine starred at William Fleming and then UVA before a brief NFL career is a darn good one. In last year's State Final, he proved his worth with 17 points, five assists and three steals to steady the Vikes. Northside turns it over just 8.5 times per contest, so speeding them up and getting them to cough the ball up won't be as easy for the high-pressure Lake Taylor defense. Fouling him is also a not a good idea; he's sinking 78.9% of his foul shots on the season.
#3 - Don't Settle for Jumpers: When the Titans beat city rival Norview 62-33 in January, they did it thanks to going 22-of-42 on 2's. When they lost to Maury on January 31st by a count of 63-60 in OT to see their 16-game winning streak halted, the ended up shooting 3-of-16 from three-point territory. Now, they were not great from long distance vs. James Monroe in the previous round, going 3-of-13. Nevertheless, they used their bread and butter - the inside game - to claim a 58-16 edge in paint points to make it irrelevant.
Northside Keys to Victory:
#1 - Stay Efficient On Offense: All five starters on this Northside team that puts up 76.3 points per game shoots it at a 45.8% clip or better from the field. Additionally, the Vikings have four three-point shooters connecting on 36% of their tries from deep or better. That type of efficiency can help immeasurably in bringing the Lake Taylor bigs away from the hoop.
#2 - Clog the Paint: When the Vikings defeated Hopewell to win the 2023 Class 3 title, they finished with a 32-26 advantage in the points in the paint category. Pope would be thrilled beyond words to win that stat department this time around because Lake Taylor's front-court studs of Baines and Washington are above the rim finishers. What Northside wants to do in this game is keep them from getting easy catches or lobs at the rim and dare many of the Titans, mainly those not named Skipwith, to beat them from the outside. In the loss to Maury, Skipwith was 2-of-5 from three-point range and the rest of the group just 1-for-11. Pretty much same deal vs. James Monroe in the last round; Skipwith was 2-of-6 on 3's and the rest went 1-for-7.
#3 - Up for Grabs in the 4th Quarter: The only team to beat Lake Taylor, Maury, required more than 32 minutes of regulation, so it's going to take digging deep and you're not going to pull away from Lake Taylor with ease because they have to much firepower. Northside knows this all too well and just go back to last year's title game vs. Hopewell, where they led 25-8 through one quarter, then trailed by four early in the fourth quarter before an 18-8 spurt to close. Keep it tight, throw a few wrinkles at the Titans and see what happens late with the outcome hanging in the balance.
Hat's Pick - Lake Taylor 70-63
We now highlight the games for State Championship Friday on March 8, 2024. The four games at the Siegel Center on the campus of Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond include a couple of defending State Champs - Hampton Girls in Class 4 and Northside in Class 3 - along with programs that have won state titles in recent memory like the Hampton Boys and Lake Taylor Boys, while Woodgrove Girls try to grab an elusive crown and Liberty Christian Girls attempt to become the only VHSL team, male or female, for basketball this season to go undefeated.
A quick review of how the Picks did on Thursday 3/7/2024...
Hatfield's State Final Picks for Thursday 3/7/2024 Total: 4-0 (100%)
Hatfield's Boys State Final Picks for Thursday 3/7/2024 Total: 2-0 (100%)
Hatfield's Girls State Final Picks for Thursday 3/7/2024 Total: 2-0 (100%)
Hatfield's 2024 State Tourney Boys Record = 32-6 (84.2%)
Hatfield's 2024 Playoff Boys Record = 173-41 (80.8%)
Hatfield's 2024 Girls State Playoff Record = 12-2 (85.7%)
... All four games were correctly predicted on Thursday, including razor close on the exact margins for both the Lancaster/Auburn Boys and Eastside/Brunswick Girls matchups in Class 1.
Can we duplicate it on Friday?
12:30 PM - CLASS 4 GIRLS: Hampton Crabbers (23-3) vs. Woodgrove Wolverines (28-1)
Hampton Keys to Victory:
#1 - Avoid Slow Start: This is a slightly different Hampton team than the one that beat Pulaski County 75-63 behind 35 points from Kennedy Harris, who's now at George Mason, to win last year's Class 4 State Championship. Coach Shanda Bailey's team gets collective scoring, but it has had some slow starts at times, particularly one that almost doomed them in the State Semis against Monacan, where they had to overcome a 15-point third quarter deficit to win 66-56. They can harass opponents with their defense throughout and hold foes to just 32.3 PPG. It's important they get off to a solid start with the tone setter being 5'5" senior PG Dreyana Foster (10.7 PPG), a 2nd Team All-Region performer.
#2 - Defend the 3-Point Shot: This looks like without question the best three-point shooting team Hampton has faced all season, which is saying something because of the quality of some of the foes they see regularly in Tidewater. Consider that Woodgrove drilled 18 three-pointers in a game against Loudoun Valley on February 2nd, which broke a 23-year old single-game VHSL record. They're sinking 8.7 three-pointers per contest, so cutting that in half would do wonders for the Lady Crabbers to get their fourth state title since 2001.
#3 - Paint Production: As great as Woodgrove is shooting the outside shot, the Wolverines also convert 53.4% of their two-point field goal tries. Yet, to offset the 3's, the Hampton wants to use its size as a big factor. Four players 6-foot-tall or bigger dot this Hampton roster, including junior Kaliya 'KD' Perry (14.2 PPG), the Region 4A Player of the Year, and fellow 1st Team All-Region selections like senior Jaiden Hunter (14.3 PPG) and freshman Lyla Ames (14 PPG). They want to control the boards. Even beyond them, the guards can definitely help with the paint production, such as seniors Corynn Tynes and Dajanelle Linton-Robinson as well as freshmen Jiana Price and Jakyra Bienaime (8.8 PPG).
Woodgrove Keys to Victory:
#1 - Utilize the 3 Ball: Coach Derek Fisher has a special group of shooters with six players that have made at least 20 three-pointers. In total, they've knocked down a staggering 252 three-pointers. Part of that equation includes the headliners in 5'10" senior guard Sadie Shores (18.8 PPG, 8 RPG, 5.4 APG) and 6'1" senior point guard Angelina Nice (18.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.8 APG). Both have earned Player of the Year honors on a district level in their careers, which will continue beyond this level with Shores having signed with Stony Brook and Nice headed to Radford. Their top three-point shooter in terms of makes is actually 5'10" junior center Vanessa Blankenship (9.6 PPG, 50 3's).
#2 - Keep Hampton Off the Foul Line: What enabled the Crabbers to hold off Pulaski in last year's State Final was their dead-eye shooting from the charity stripe in the form of going a perfect 14-for-14 with Harris going 8-of-8. Even in last week's State Semis vs. Monacan, they were 16-of-19 on the night and 11-for-13 during the fourth quarter to salt things away. On the season, the Wolverines are actually shooting just 59.1% from the foul line, though it hasn't hindered them from scoring at a high clip in terms of putting up 75.7 PPG. Make Hampton earn the points on jumpers rather than by stopping the clock and scoring at the foul line.
#3 - Finish Strong: It's so essential the Woodgrove closes out well, both offensively and defensively against a Hampton team that can be tenacious defensively, plus wants to pound the ball inside the paint. They have to be able to handle the pressure and not turn the ball over at a high rate because the Lady Crabbers feed off of those miscues. To take some of the burden off standouts Nice and Shores, big efforts from freshman 5'10" guard Amaya Ramey (8.4 PPG), a 1st Team All-Catoctin District pick, and sophomore 5'8" guard Lyla Brown (6.3 PPG), a 2nd Team All-District choice, would go a long way.
Hat's Pick - Woodgrove 66-61
2:30 PM - CLASS 4 BOYS: Hampton Crabbers (24-2) vs. Tuscarora Huskies (25-3)
Hampton Keys to Victory:
#1 - Work Inside-Out: It's clear that the Crabbers want to start its effort in the painted area and go from there. Both Kay and Clarke can score over top of defenders the Huskies have, while Baugh, Johnson and Taft all have the ability drive in the lane and create. More than anything, this Hampton team wants to set a physical tone against a Huskies squad known for its skill and outside shooting, deemed more of a finesse bunch.
#2 - Locate Johnson: While the Crabbers have seen some quality competition within and outside the Peninsula District throughout the season, one can certainly argue that Jayden Johnson is the best shooter and / or scorer they will have faced. Jayden not only put up 34 points vs. Broad Run in the region semis, but lit up Dominion for school records of 35 points and nine three-pointers on Senior Night. In addition to finding him on defense, they need to get their own Johnson, Malik, in the flow on offense to slash and attack.
#3 - In Baugh We Trust: When Hampton ended King's Fork's 44-game home winning streak in early February, it was Baugh directing the attack with 23 points. He steadied them with eight points in the first quarter that night and knocked down some critical free-throws. He's not fallen in love with trying to score either. The veteran floor leader has been the facilitator that Coach Brown wants with seven assists per contest, up from three per game during the regular season. His ability to make those around him better helps the Crabbers reach their full potential offensively.
Tuscarora Keys to Victory:
#1 - Neutralize Hampton's Size: With the Crabbers boasting four rotation players between 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-8, the Huskies must find a way to slow them down, or better yet, cancel out that advantage in terms of height. Only one player is 6-foot-1 or taller, though that should not totally intimidate this Tuscarora team because they beat Charlottesville on the road in the State Tournament quarterfinals, 72-58. The Black Knights possessed two formidable post players that checked in at 6-foot-11 and 6-foot-4, along with a silky-smooth 6-foot-4 scoring two-guard. Making Hampton play from behind early can help this effort greatly.
#2 - Win the 3-Point Line: Coming in, Jayden Johnson has drained 91 three-pointers on 42% shooting from behind the arc to go with 81% at the foul line. T.J. Duggan has connected on 56 3's on 39% shooting from long distance to go with 82% from the charity stripe. When those two get hot together, look out. The Huskies know it can be a long night for the opposition, so outscoring the Crabbers by a bundle behind the three-point is their best path capturing the Championship trophy.
#3 - One & Done: One of the main reasons Tuscarora lost an early December matchup to West Potomac 67-62 after leading 37-28 at intermission and 57-49 through three quarters of play was how well the Wolverines extended possessions. That came via 17 offensive rebounds as well as 25-of-41 shooting from the foul line. In this setting, the Huskies cannot afford to give Hampton extra chances and must get back in transition defensively.
Hat's Pick - Hampton 64-54
6 PM - CLASS 3 GIRLS: Liberty Christian Bulldogs (26-0) vs. Meridian Mustangs (22-5)
Liberty Christian Keys to Victory:
#1 - Ride the Dynamic Duo: The tremendous tandem of 6'2" senior center Emmy Stout (16 PPG, 9.5 RPG with 20 PPG, 14.4 RPG in playoffs) and 5'8" senior guard Avery Mills (22.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.7 APG, 3.5 SPG) make the LCA Bulldogs go. Mills was the Region 3C Player of the Year and entered the State Semis a blistering 106-of-250 from three-point distance on the season. She exploded for 35 points in their victory over reigning two-time State Champ Carroll County in the quarterfinal round. Meanwhile, Stout had 31 points and 19 boards against Abingdon in the State Semis and is putting up 25.5 PPG and nearly 20 boards a contest during the State Playoffs.
#2 - Run Friesen Off the 3-Point Line: Junior 5'9" guard/forward Ellie Friesen (15.2 PPG) of Meridian loves to shoot it and does so with the ultimate confidence. In fact, on the season she's made 79 three-pointers, arriving to the Mustangs after spending her freshman year at O'Connell and becoming a more well-rounded player this winter. With her making 79 of the team's 133 3's - that's 59.4% - it would be wise for LCA to keep her from doing damage and testing the others, who are a combined 27% from behind the arc.
#3 - Turn the Mustangs Over: On the season, Meridian is turning it over just 11.8 times per game. That might not seem like a whole lot, but the LCA defense can be disruptive when it wants to be, yielding just 33.5 PPG while scoring 65.2 PPG as a team. In fact, 24 of their wins have been by double-digits because of how they put the foot on the necks of the opposition early in games. LCA's top six players turn it over just 5.9 times per game, but they exert themselves at both ends and combine to pile up 9.7 steals per contest. That's extra possessions, which are so precious in a elimination basketball.
Meridian Keys to Victory:
#1 - Crisp Ball Movement: Like Coach Heather Stephens of LCA, Meridian Head Coach Chris Carrico preaches playing unselfishly and sharing the ball. Meridian won a state title in 2021 and lost by five points in 2022 to Carroll County. This program expects to be playing meaningful games in the month of March and their 13.7 assists per game tell plenty about the success they're enjoying. Keep that going and try to get upwards of 15 dimes to loosen up a stingy LCA defense. The top distributor with 136 assists is senior 6-foot-tall forward Maureen 'Mo' Tremblay (11.9 PPG, 10.3 RPG), named both the Northwestern District and Region 3B Player of the Year.
#2 - Convert the Freebies: With the Mustangs averaging 52.6 points per game on the season and winning by 12.6 PPG during the playoffs, they know to keep that trend going in a positive direction and become the first time all season to take down LCA, delivering at the free-throw line is critical. As a team, they're making only 59.3% of their free-throws. Charlotte Lieu (8.6 PPG), a 5'7" freshman guard, has been the most dependable at the foul line, making 78.3% to date. Even Tremblay, who is in the State Final Four round or later for the third time in her career, has made strides from a free-throw shooting perspective.
#3 - Contain Mills & Stout: This Meridian team has had a couple of comebacks in these playoffs, rallying in the State Tournament quarterfinals to defeat Lafayette 52-41 and also doing the same to beat Lake Taylor in the State Semis, 59-53. It's going to take even more than just Tremblay or Friesen and Lieu to get it done against the lethal combo of Mills and Stout. Nora Stufft (7.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG), a 5'10" junior forward, is one of those players that brings the intangibles, energy and a high motor since returning from a knee injury early in the season.
Hat's Pick - Liberty Christian 64-50
8 PM - CLASS 3 BOYS: Lake Taylor Titans (27-2; 25-1) vs. Northside Vikings (27-3)
Lake Taylor Keys to Victory:
#1 - Make Free-Throws Count: Back in 2016, the Titans were haunted by going 6-of-12 from the foul line, including 2-for-6 in the closing minutes as a 12-point third quarter lead evaporated in the Championship vs. a Monacan team they handled by double-figures during the regional playoffs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs went 13-of-19 from the foul line and 11-for-13 to close. However, when the Titans outlasted Handley for the 2018 title, they made 18-of-27 free-throws and 8-for-11 to finish in a game that went to 2 OT's. The Judges went just 17-for-31 from the stripe and 4-of-12 in the OT's. Don't leave points at the line.
#2 - Contain Cy: A 5.14 assist-to-turnover ratio from a point guard is mighty impressive and this 11th grader for the Vikings whose father Jermaine starred at William Fleming and then UVA before a brief NFL career is a darn good one. In last year's State Final, he proved his worth with 17 points, five assists and three steals to steady the Vikes. Northside turns it over just 8.5 times per contest, so speeding them up and getting them to cough the ball up won't be as easy for the high-pressure Lake Taylor defense. Fouling him is also a not a good idea; he's sinking 78.9% of his foul shots on the season.
#3 - Don't Settle for Jumpers: When the Titans beat city rival Norview 62-33 in January, they did it thanks to going 22-of-42 on 2's. When they lost to Maury on January 31st by a count of 63-60 in OT to see their 16-game winning streak halted, the ended up shooting 3-of-16 from three-point territory. Now, they were not great from long distance vs. James Monroe in the previous round, going 3-of-13. Nevertheless, they used their bread and butter - the inside game - to claim a 58-16 edge in paint points to make it irrelevant.
Northside Keys to Victory:
#1 - Stay Efficient On Offense: All five starters on this Northside team that puts up 76.3 points per game shoots it at a 45.8% clip or better from the field. Additionally, the Vikings have four three-point shooters connecting on 36% of their tries from deep or better. That type of efficiency can help immeasurably in bringing the Lake Taylor bigs away from the hoop.
#2 - Clog the Paint: When the Vikings defeated Hopewell to win the 2023 Class 3 title, they finished with a 32-26 advantage in the points in the paint category. Pope would be thrilled beyond words to win that stat department this time around because Lake Taylor's front-court studs of Baines and Washington are above the rim finishers. What Northside wants to do in this game is keep them from getting easy catches or lobs at the rim and dare many of the Titans, mainly those not named Skipwith, to beat them from the outside. In the loss to Maury, Skipwith was 2-of-5 from three-point range and the rest of the group just 1-for-11. Pretty much same deal vs. James Monroe in the last round; Skipwith was 2-of-6 on 3's and the rest went 1-for-7.
#3 - Up for Grabs in the 4th Quarter: The only team to beat Lake Taylor, Maury, required more than 32 minutes of regulation, so it's going to take digging deep and you're not going to pull away from Lake Taylor with ease because they have to much firepower. Northside knows this all too well and just go back to last year's title game vs. Hopewell, where they led 25-8 through one quarter, then trailed by four early in the fourth quarter before an 18-8 spurt to close. Keep it tight, throw a few wrinkles at the Titans and see what happens late with the outcome hanging in the balance.
Hat's Pick - Lake Taylor 70-63
