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Predictions VHSL State Basketball Championships - Keys to Victory & Picks for Saturday's Title Games (3-9-24) in Class 6 & 5

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Jul 20, 2004
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11:00 AM - CLASS 6 GIRLS: Manchester Lancers (26-2) vs. Thomas Dale Knights (24-1)

Manchester Keys to Victory:

#1 - Go Through Mia:

#2 - Take Care of the Ball:

#3 - Transition Defense:


Thomas Dale Keys to Victory:

#1 - Speed the Game Up:

#2 - Get Woolfolk in Foul Trouble:

#3 - Hit the Defensive Backboards:


Hat's Pick - Manchester 57-55


1 PM - CLASS 6 BOYS: Patriot Pioneers (24-4) vs. South Lakes Seahawks (25-2)

Patriot Keys to Victory:

#1 - Avoid Shooting Drought:
In last year's Class 6 State Championship loss to Hayfield, one could make the case that the bright lights and depth perception of playing on a college floor at VCU bothered the Pioneers in them shooting 1-of-12 from three-point range, 0-for-8 after half-time. Of course, Hayfield will say their defense had to plenty to do about it, and South Lakes is confident in its ability to guard like the Hawks. In their 59-46 loss to Woodside early in the season, the Pioneers hit a lull in the second quarter when they got outscored 21-8 and finished the game with more turnoers than made triples. If 3's aren't falling, it's important they get Vick involved heavily around the basket.

#2 - Slow The Great Scott: There's no denying that Scott is not only the most coveted college prospect on the floor, but one of the most sought after in the entire state from the Class of 2025. He's not that will force the issue and try to pile up a ton of points, though he did get hot late in the first meeting this season when he put up half of his 28 points in the fourth quarter alone, finishing 8-of-11 on field goal tries inside the three-point arc. He's such a willing passer and plays with a high basketball IQ, so the Pioneers want to minimize his impact on the game.

#3 - Second Chance Points: Rivers has said this might be the best offensive team he's had at Patriot and part of that is their collective effort when it comes to following missed shots. A season ago in that State Final loss to Hayfield, they had one of their worst offensive showings and got out-rebounded 44-31, including 16-9 on the offensive glass and stayed even with the Hawks in second chance points at 10-apiece. Furthermore, the bench gave them no points in 29 minutes of action by the reserves. That can't happen here if they plan on prevailing.


South Lakes Keys to Victory:

#1 - Balanced Scoring:
When these two teams got together back on December 19th, some may remember it as two of the D-1 talents put up a lot of points with Scott scoring 28 for South Lakes and Barbour highlighting the Patriot attack with 23 points, including 8-of-10 from the foul line. However, Desmond and company know that shots didn't fall for them against a quality Patriot team and they are at their best when it's a collective scoring effort, like when Scott had 16 points vs. Alexandria City in a win while the quartet of Vita, Billings, Andre and Rochester amased 38. Don't rely on Jordan to do all the heavy lifting.

#2 - Perimeter Defense: When South Lakes suffered its first loss of the season, the Pioneers scorched the nets to the tune of 12-of-18 from three-point territory, whereas the Seahawks struggled in going 3-for-19 behind the arc. Now, South Lakes has won before while having a rough outside shooting night, including the Alexandria City game just refered as they were 2-of-15 from long distance, yet won 64-54. That's because they defended the three-point line better, holding the Titans to 6-of-22 on 3's. When Patriot takes three-point shots, make sure they're contested ones.

#3 - Create Turnovers: Defensively, these two teams are a bit different in that Patriot is better in terms of help side and clogging the paint, while South Lakes likes to shoot the gaps and passing lanes to get steals. Vita and Kennedy are influential in that effort. In fact, Kennedy - a two-time Concorde District Defensive Player of the Year honoree - had four steals in the first meeting. Patriot turned it over 20 times compared to ten by Hayfield in the State Final, and at night's end the 17-7 points off turnovers edge for the Hawks loomed largely. South Lakes would love a similar outcome.


Hat's Pick - Patriot 68-67 (OT)


4:30 PM - CLASS 5 GIRLS: James River Rapids (25-3) vs. Princess Anne Cavaliers (24-2)


James River Keys to Victory:

#1 - Shot Selection

#2 - Keep Ojo Away From the Hoop:

#3 - Stay Poised:


Princess Anne Keys to Victory:

#1 - Handle Grant:

#2 - Apply Pressure with Relentless Defense:

#3 - Bench Production:


Hat's Pick - Princess Anne 54-48


6:30 PM - CLASS 5 BOYS: L.C. Bird Skyhawks (24-2) vs. Woodside Wolverines (26-1)

L.C. Bird Keys to Victory:

#1 - Rebound:
In the regional semis vs. Norview at Norfolk State, Woodside was +17 on the boards, out-rebounding the Pilots 41-24. They also out-rebounded Kecoughtan 46-29 in the region quarterfinals. Not only is Barksdale a load, but Houston had 13 boards off the bench in that win over Kecoughtan. The Wolverines have six players listed 6-foot-2 or taller, whereas Bird is primarily guard-oriented. However, the Skyhawks guards and wings generally have good length and size to them. If Hunt, Moore, Young and 6'2" junior swingman Tyrese Williams can provide rebounding for Bird, it'll bode real well for them to keep Woodside from piling up a ton of points.

#2 - Stop Dribble Penetration: The Wolverines have some slick guards in Wells-Stevens adn Hamilton that set up a bulk of their scoring through drives into the paint, then dump offs to Barksdale when defenders collapse on them. Bird has to make them take forced or contest jumpers away from the bucket and keep the penetrators out of the lane. Their defense is set up to doing that, and in that 75-64 victory over Albemarle that halted a 19-game winning streak by the Patriots, their trapping 1-2-2 zone caused some issues.

#3 - Value Possessions: Getting points when the clock stops, at that foul line, is an element that needs to be utilized in order to beat a team as potent as Woodside. That hinders Woodside runs. Live ball turnovers will doom you against this PD powerhouse. PH-Roanoke had twice as many turnovers, 20 to Woodside's 10, a year ago and it gave the Wolverines the juice to come back, aided by 13 fast-break points as well. Bird can play methodical, and if they hit shots the way they did in that Region 5C Final when they made 56.5% of them on 26-of-46 to go with 15-of-18 from the charity stripe, they'll be in it to win it, to the very end.


Woodside Keys to Victory:

#1 - Feed Barksdale Early:
In the playoffs alone, Barksdale is averaging 14 points and 14.4 rebounds per contest. That includes a 21-point, 20-rebound effort vs. Kempsville in the State Tournament quarterfinals, followed up by 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting to go with eight boards in the State Semis against Region 5A Champ Green Run. Over his past four games, he's averaging 16.5 PPG, so he's their main source of offense in the low block with his size and deft touch. When they were beaten by Peninsula Catholic, the Wolverines settled for outside shots too much and it led them to being just 2-for-2 from the foul line for the entire game. Oddly enough, both foul shots were made by? Barksdale.

#2 - Use Your Depth: Recent postseason triumphs have illustrated that Woodside can go to its eighth, ninth or even tenth man in the rotation and get production. When they handled Kecoughtan in the regional quarters, the subs provided 28 points and nine assists. The backups did quite well in the region semis vs. Norview with 18 points, including nine points and 11 boards by Wells-Stevens, who would not only start for most teams, but be a go-to guy. They also got 15 bench points along with five assists in the Region 5B Final vs. Maury, and in its most recent game on a college floor at NSU, had 13 bench points vs. Green Run.

#3 - Eliminate Clean 3's: When Woodside went down 68-52 to Peninsula Catholic on February 3rd, the three-point shot did them in as the Knights went 9-of-20 from behind the arc. If it becomes a battle of trading 2's, Woodside will be extremely confident about winning. However, if Bird is able to swap 3's for 2's and keep the Wolverines off the foul line while maximizing their possessions, then we'll have drama at the Siegel Center for a second straight year in the Class 5 Final. The crew from Newport News must make those attempts from deep for Bird come with a hand in the face of shooters.


Hat's Pick - Woodside 57-45


More to Come Later... stay tuned!
 
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