Westfield 71 - Justice 0

[falcettik]

Before I write anything about this game I want to say this to the schedulers:

We are about to enter a new two year cycle and the schedules for 2025 and 2026 will be prepared soon. I have heard the schedulers use an algorithm or formula that factors in a team's record for the past three years and then matches up similar teams of similar strength (according to said algorithm/formula) for out of district games. Well, that ain't working. Assuming this is how it is done, next time around if you must use the same algorithm or formula you need to do one of the following: 1) someone needs to review each team's schedule for obvious mismatches and then work to match up appropriate opponents, or 2) take a team's record for the past 10 years (at least, perhaps go back 15 or 20 years) and add a "program strength factor" that begins with a 1.0 for teams with a historical 5-5 regular season record and then uses a graduated scale. Perhaps it could be something similar to this (but the exact formula is something for a mathematician to figure out): Add 0.2 points for teams averaging a 6-4 record, 0.4 points for teams averaging a 7-3 record, etc. Similarly, deduct 0.2 points for teams averaging a 4-6 record, etc.

Ok, rant over.

The only positive from this game was that probably every player on Westfield's roster got in the game. Positives ended there, as this game did nothing for either team.

Game summary: The teams agreed to an early running clock before kickoff and it started with 10:37 remaining in the first half. That really made little difference as Westfield's offense ran less than 30 plays for the game. The defense limited Justice to just 15 yards of offense. Westfield received scores (TD, XP, or 2XP) from 13 different players:

Morin (55 yard punt return)
H. Johnson (43 yard run, 43 yard run)
Kennedy (1 yard run)
C. Thompson (8 yard pass)
Lee (70 yard run)
H. Thompson (36 yard pass)
Rafee (41 yard pass)
Webster (74 yard run)
Dolan (72 yard run)
Wiemann (5 XP)
Batchala (3 XP)
Waters (1 XP)
Payne (2XP pass)

 

[otnorot]

The 6-10 weakest teams in Northern Virginia need to get together and play each other in non-district games.

Most National District programs have always been precarious but some of them have taken a big step back since Covid. Not long ago Falls Church and Justice were looking like success stories.

 

[OCBoy]

When will Westfield be back in the thick of running northern Va ?

 

[falcettik]

When will Westfield be back in the thick of running northern Va ?

I am not sure Westfield will ever be back "running things" like they did from 2002-2019 to be honest. I think they will almost every year be a factor and a tough out for most teams, but three things are working against annual, continued success like they have historically shown.

1. The normal ups and downs of a program are now exacerbated by a big reduction in kids playing football, especially at the youth levels. That makes it so much harder to build program depth and keep the pipeline full. A subset of this is the growing number of kids who choose to play flag football and arrive at the high school level lacking tackle football skills and knowledge.
2. Demographics. Since the school opened 25 years ago the demographic mix has changed a lot. A growing number of the kids who attend Westfield now are not from families that traditionally grow up playing football (generally speaking).
3. An unlevel playing field. This is created by recruited teams or schools that have policies that allow a sudden influence of talent. Yes, kids move all the time for a number of reasons. The current system of transferring to IB or specialty programs, rightfully developed to provide better academic opportunities for kids who wish to follow that route, has become a loophole for athletics in some districts around the state. Then there is Hayfield's situation, which is on a different level. Until both the school systems and the VHSL choose to really, deeply look into the problem and decide to act with some sort of vetting or verification of transfers this is only going to continue.

 

[OCBoy]

I am not sure Westfield will ever be back "running things" like they did from 2002-2019 to be honest. I think they will almost every year be a factor and a tough out for most teams, but three things are working against annual, continued success like they have historically shown.

1. The normal ups and downs of a program are now exacerbated by a big reduction in kids playing football, especially at the youth levels. That makes it so much harder to build program depth and keep the pipeline full. A subset of this is the growing number of kids who choose to play flag football and arrive at the high school level lacking tackle football skills and knowledge.
2. Demographics. Since the school opened 25 years ago the demographic mix has changed a lot. A growing number of the kids who attend Westfield now are not from families that traditionally grow up playing football (generally speaking).
3. An unlevel playing field. This is created by recruited teams or schools that have policies that allow a sudden influence of talent. Yes, kids move all the time for a number of reasons. The current system of transferring to IB or specialty programs, rightfully developed to provide better academic opportunities for kids who wish to follow that route, has become a loophole for athletics in some districts around the state. Then there is Hayfield's situation, which is on a different level. Until both the school systems and the VHSL choose to really, deeply look into the problem and decide to act with some sort of vetting or verification of transfers this is only going to continue.

Good insight. Thank you

 

[SV-Viking4]

So is the schedule formula documented anywhere?

 

[falcettik]

So is the schedule formula documented anywhere?

I would guess that it is somewhere, but I cannot say. My limited knowledge came from a conversation last year that I had with a school administrator.

 

[SV-Viking4]

Yeah, I just question any formula that matches Justice to Westfield. I would guess in the last 5 years Westfield has at least 3 times as many wins.

 

[otnorot]

Justice won the National District in 2021 and had a decent record for a few years before that, so I can imagine a formula causing them to get scheduled over their heads the last couple seasons.

Problem is that even in their better seasons they wouldn't have been competitive with a Westfield, and most of the teams they are likely to be competitive with are already in their district.

 

[falcettik]

Justice won the National District in 2021 and had a decent record for a few years before that, so I can imagine a formula causing them to get scheduled over their heads the last couple seasons.

That is precisely what happened. A better than average Justice record for several years coincided with a Westfield team that was down (for them).