It seems like a lot of people are in favor of going back to 3 divisions instead of the 4 we currently have, so I guess my question is: Anybody know if they are planning on going back to 3?
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To answer mppalmer's concern, going back to three divisions would not involve just merging D-IV and D-III and leaving D-II and D-I as they are. I think there would still be good competition in that lower division.
Keeping the number of teams in each division even, the new D-III would probably be the current D-IV plus Covenant, Isle of Wight, and Portsmouth Christian. The new D-II would probably be all the rest of current D-III and all of current D-II except Potomac, Bishop Sullivan, and Trinity Episcopal (who would all move to D-I). Those are just guesstimates, but my only point is I don't think the smallest schools would be out of it. The bottom half of the lower division has produced great championship-caliber teams over the years: especially Broadwater and Blessed Sacrament-Huguenot.
Covenant and Portsmouth Christian are the same size as Isle of Wight-- barring a drastic change for any of them, those three will have to go together, however the divisions shake out. They'll probably either be the largest schools in D-III with three divisions or the smallest schools in D-III with four divisions-- I agree there is no way they will be in D-IV if we stay with four divisions.
Of those three (Covenant, IWA, PCS), I would say Isle of Wight is the most consistently competitive, but even they have had years where they had trouble with Broadwater (the second-smallest playoff-eligible school in D-IV). Broadwater beat Isle of Wight by five touchdowns and went toe-to-toe with eventual D-III champion VES in Lynchburg in 2013. Does Broadwater have that kind of enrollment-defying year every year? Of course not. No one does. But it can happen.
The top-enrollment team in a division will always be significantly larger than the bottom-enrollment team in a division-- the only way to fix that is to create even MORE divisions, which I think we all agree is not the way forward.
Look at the other extreme in Division I. The two highest-enrollment teams (Paul VI and Bishop O'Connell) have combined to win four games this season. O'Connell has over 70 more boys than PVI, who has over 100 more boys than Woodberry, the next largest school, who has over 30 more boys than St. John Paul the Great, the next largest school. That's a 200-student gap between your #1 enrollment school and your #4 enrollment school in that division. The lowest-enrollment team in Division I (Episcopal HS) has less than half the number of boys that Bishop O'Connell OR Paul VI does, but if all schools were in the points system, EHS would have the #2 seed in the D-I playoffs (Woodberry would have #1)-- both of those schools are already calling "The Game" this year's "actual" Division I state championship game, and it actually looks to be competitive, despite the 170-student enrollment gap between the two schools.
Will Broadwater be a perennial contender in a hypothetical Division III that includes Covenant, Portsmouth Christian, Isle of Wight, and North Cross? Probably not-- I get that. My only point was that enrollment isn't everything. A lot's been said about the coaching staff at North Cross and how well they work with the kids they get to allow them to compete consistently despite being 30 boys smaller than some D-III schools. Other schools benefit from having successful JV programs or solid feeder schools from the middle school level. Some teams use home-school kids and make their "enrollment" a completely irrelevant factor. Enrollment is a useful tool on which to base our divisions, but belly-aching about the gap between the top and bottom of a division enrollment-wise and just assuming that it automatically leads to permanent gaps in competition is one of the things that got us to four divisions, and I haven't heard from many people singing the praises of that outcome.
I agree with your assessment and I have a few comments.
The main problem I see is the smaller schools usually do not have the depth to compete for an entire season. The larger schools can survive a few injuries but with the D4 schools it could means having to forfeit games. Players asked to play both offense and defense for an entire season makes it difficult to hold practices and compete the closer you get to playoffs. I mentioned earlier that we have lost schools like Carlisle, Tidewater Academy and Hampton Christian who all dropped football.
Every other VISAA sport you could probably can get away with a team of 15 players or less. Soccer would probably require the most but I think 15 would meet the minimum requirements. I would guess that Soccer being played in the Fall also affects the football numbers.
We will never have a system that will appease everyone. If the enrollments are correct, then people will argue about how a team makes their schedule just to get to the playoffs (Fishburne Academy) and how the VISAA points system needs to be adjusted. If a team plays a tough schedule and does well (Fredericksburg Christian) , then people will complain about the transfers and how it wasn't earned.
The reason I would like to go back to the three divisions is because half the teams in D2 make the playoffs (4 of 8) and roughly half the teams make it in D4 (4 of 9) which I feel is too many.
Covenant and Portsmouth Christian are the same size as Isle of Wight-- barring a drastic change for any of them, those three will have to go together, however the divisions shake out. They'll probably either be the largest schools in D-III with three divisions or the smallest schools in D-III with four divisions-- I agree there is no way they will be in D-IV if we stay with four divisions.
Of those three (Covenant, IWA, PCS), I would say Isle of Wight is the most consistently competitive, but even they have had years where they had trouble with Broadwater (the second-smallest playoff-eligible school in D-IV). Broadwater beat Isle of Wight by five touchdowns and went toe-to-toe with eventual D-III champion VES in Lynchburg in 2013. Does Broadwater have that kind of enrollment-defying year every year? Of course not. No one does. But it can happen.
The top-enrollment team in a division will always be significantly larger than the bottom-enrollment team in a division-- the only way to fix that is to create even MORE divisions, which I think we all agree is not the way forward.
Look at the other extreme in Division I. The two highest-enrollment teams (Paul VI and Bishop O'Connell) have combined to win four games this season. O'Connell has over 70 more boys than PVI, who has over 100 more boys than Woodberry, the next largest school, who has over 30 more boys than St. John Paul the Great, the next largest school. That's a 200-student gap between your #1 enrollment school and your #4 enrollment school in that division. The lowest-enrollment team in Division I (Episcopal HS) has less than half the number of boys that Bishop O'Connell OR Paul VI does, but if all schools were in the points system, EHS would have the #2 seed in the D-I playoffs (Woodberry would have #1)-- both of those schools are already calling "The Game" this year's "actual" Division I state championship game, and it actually looks to be competitive, despite the 170-student enrollment gap between the two schools.
Will Broadwater be a perennial contender in a hypothetical Division III that includes Covenant, Portsmouth Christian, Isle of Wight, and North Cross? Probably not-- I get that. My only point was that enrollment isn't everything. A lot's been said about the coaching staff at North Cross and how well they work with the kids they get to allow them to compete consistently despite being 30 boys smaller than some D-III schools. Other schools benefit from having successful JV programs or solid feeder schools from the middle school level. Some teams use home-school kids and make their "enrollment" a completely irrelevant factor. Enrollment is a useful tool on which to base our divisions, but belly-aching about the gap between the top and bottom of a division enrollment-wise and just assuming that it automatically leads to permanent gaps in competition is one of the things that got us to four divisions, and I haven't heard from many people singing the praises of that outcome.
As far as 4 of 9 teams in, I don't see the difference when it comes to the public schools. Not sure what the percentage is that makes it, but after looking at sampling of lower seeds making it in to the 1-6A playoffs 9 of the 16 teams that made it in are below .500, i.e. 2-8 Petersburg, 3-7 Colonial Beach, 3-7 Hidden Valley, etc. Private schools have 16 of 41 teams in their playoffs or roughly 40%. But only 1 team, Bishop Sullivan, has a losing record 4-5 and Covenant is the lone 500 team at 5-5. Not always the case I know but just food for thought. I don't have a problem with everyone being in and eliminating from there. lets just make sure the best team is crowned champion in whatever divisions there are.
Well, then let the top three divisions consolidate somewhat and leave D4 alone. The D4 schools certainly aren't the ones hemming and hawing to go back to three divisions. I think once you get to the much larger schools with enrollments in the hundreds of male students, the impact in enrollment doesn't matter nearly as much. Where it matters, and hurts the most, is for the schools and kids in D4. A school with 43 boys (Kenston Forest) will consistently have an extremely tough time competing against a school like Covenant (130 boys or so). That's a huge difference when it comes to those really small schools because they're barely able to field football rosters some years as it is. And to then have to go up against schools that have nearly 100 more male athletes to choose from, in a very physical sport like football - I just don't see that being a good thing or something the D4 schools would want. For perspective, just look at what a larger-than-everyone-else enrollment and a few transfers did for IWA this year. They are pounding every D4 school they play - no one's come close.
Regarding North Cross - they currently have 98 boys in the cycle going forward - and the cutoff for D4 is 94 boys. So North Cross is playing right where they should be - in Division III. I think it's great that they are able to get so much out of a smaller roster and kudos to the coaching staff for that. On the other hand, how many state title games have they been to under the new coaching regime? Have they won any titles? I get that it's a great thing to "play up" and all, but when you don't have any hardware to show for it, is it worth it? Are you perhaps taking some success away from your kids by electing to play up with such a small roster? I don't have all the answers. Just questions to think about....
Well if D4 would remain largely unaffected if it becomes the new D3, then I think all current D4 schools would be okay with the shift in divisions. IF that's what actually happens... Also, I'm pretty sure Covenant had close to 130 males just up to a year or two ago - maybe their enrollment has dropped a bit..
And my question regarding North Cross was about their "new regime." Are the championship appearances and one title win in the last 7 years under their current coach, or the former coach?
I certainly get the idea of a challenge and playing up, and North Cross does it very well, year in and year out. Just what they've been able to accomplish this year with all the injuries is amazing - a testament to great coaching. But again, I have to think I if I'm a player at NC, and I just finished my senior year, and we played well all four years and made the playoffs but never got a ring while playing a division up...I might think to myself that I wish the decision had been made to allow us to play in our rightful division where I almost certainly would have won a ring during my high school career.
Same coaching staff which is part of their success. And I am sure there are some wistful moments for rings particularly when cross town rival won D4 and will not play them. Another thing on the depth issue for smaller schools... When you have two way starters, one injury affects two starting positions.
Six years then, and five playoff runs. Three championship appearances and one championship. Past NC coach is a big reason why RC will not play NC. Many players not representative of the school, not college appropriate, one and dones, senior transfers, lots of financial aid, and running up the score mercilessly. A bunch of great kids as well but overall, a tough time for North Cross football. Coach A not dealing from that same deck as administration laid done expectations. They are still trying to rebuild relationships with schools like Catholic and Fishburne.
Catholic's ring was a great story. My only point on that one was their championship had to make North Cross players think as you said about what would have happened if they played D4 the last four years.
Would love to hear some stories from the nineties with Muscaro. Before my time but I think the headmasters at Catholic and North Cross seem to understand high school rivalries. The two schools could probably control their coaches and students. I have seen it work in Baltimore between Gilman and McDonough. They actually have football players go to the either school to meet with the student bodies to talk about the rivalry and how good it is.
I'm a fan of the 4 divisions. I think the same deal you get with someone with 43 male enrolees playing a team of 105 is similar to a team of 115 playing a team of 210. Less noticeable at 1st but depth is an issue and quality of depth. I think the D4 group as we speak is appropriate. Some will move up next cycle. D-3 similar. NSA moving down "early" ruffled feathers but we have a lot of "similar schools" as far as size and depth for the most part. D2 is smaller this year in number but very competitive.
As far as 4 of 9 teams in, I don't see the difference when it comes to the public schools. Not sure what the percentage is that makes it, but after looking at sampling of lower seeds making it in to the 1-6A playoffs 9 of the 16 teams that made it in are below .500, i.e. 2-8 Petersburg, 3-7 Colonial Beach, 3-7 Hidden Valley, etc. Private schools have 16 of 41 teams in their playoffs or roughly 40%. But only 1 team, Bishop Sullivan, has a losing record 4-5 and Covenant is the lone 500 team at 5-5. Not always the case I know but just food for thought. I don't have a problem with everyone being in and eliminating from there. lets just make sure the best team is crowned champion in whatever divisions there are.
^^^Glad someone from Catholic chimed in^^^ As far as Bishop Sullivan's plan for next year, maybe you can spread set the record straight. I have heard talk that negotiations are in the works to bring over Coach Scott from Ocean Lakes to run the Bishop Sullivan football program. If the financial terms can be agreed upon, Coach Scott will be the head coach and the school/booster club/alumni will provide tuition for 10-12 football players to be able to attend Bishop Sullivan for football, per his request. At Sullivan, he will be able to do the things he is getting suspended for at Ocean Lakes without suffering any repercussions. Any truth to this talk?? Seems like a perfect fit for his coaching style. Also heard that if this change takes place Bishop Sullivan will move up to play at Division 1 level and leave the TCIS conference. Set the record straight if you can catholicfootball101.