2024 Class 6 Region C/D Power Points

[Bounty13]

The all-too early, you didn't know you needed, Week 0 Power Points:

Region C
Fairfax (26) 26.00
Hayfield (26) 26.00
Lake Braddock (26) 26.00
Lewis (26) 26.00
South County (26) 26.00
Alexandria City (15) 15.00
Annandale (15) 15.00
C.G. Woodson (15) 15.00
Edison (15) 15.00
Falls Church (15) 15.00
Justice (15) 15.00
Robinson (15) 15.00
West Springfield (15) 15.00
Mount Vernon (0) N/A
West Potomac (0) N/A

Region D
Centreville (26) 26.00
Chantilly (26) 26.00
Herndon (26) 26.00
Langley (26) 26.00
Madison (26) 26.00
Marshall (26) 26.00
McLean (26) 26.00
Washington-Liberty (26) 26.00
Yorktown (26) 26.00
Oakton (15) 15.00
South Lakes (15) 15.00
Wakefield (15) 15.00
Westfield (15) 15.00

 

[Bounty13]

Week 1:

Region C
West Potomac (28) 28.00
Hayfield (26) 26.00
Lake Braddock (44) 22.00
Fairfax (43) 21.50
South County (43) 21.50
Lewis (42) 21.00
Robinson (41) 20.50
Annandale (32) 16.00
C.G. Woodson (32) 16.00
Edison (16) 16.00
Falls Church (32) 16.00
Alexandria City (31) 15.50
Justice (15) 15.00
Mount Vernon (15) 15.00
West Springfield (15) 15.00

Region D
Langley (56) 28.00
McLean (56) 28.00
Madison (54) 27.00
Chantilly (52) 26.00
Marshall (52) 26.00
Washington-Liberty (52) 26.00
Yorktown (52) 26.00
Oakton (44) 22.00
Herndon (42) 21.00
Centreville (41) 20.50
Wakefield (41) 20.50
Westfield (41) 20.50
South Lakes (30) 15.00

 

[Bounty13]

Week 2:

Region C
West Potomac (28) 28.00
Hayfield (52) 26.00
Fairfax (72) 24.00
South County (70) 23.33
Lake Braddock (61) 20.33
Lewis (61) 20.33
Robinson (61) 20.33
Edison (34) 17.00
Annandale (50) 16.67
C.G. Woodson (50) 16.67
Justice (33) 16.50
Falls Church (49) 16.33
Alexandria City (48) 16.00
West Springfield (32) 16.00
Mount Vernon (31) 15.50

Region D
Langley (86) 28.67
Chantilly (82) 27.33
Madison (82) 27.33
Washington-Liberty (80) 26.67
Yorktown (80) 26.67
Marshall (78) 26.00
McLean (73) 24.33
Oakton (73) 24.33
Herndon (71) 23.67
Westfield (70) 23.33
Wakefield (59) 19.67
Centreville (57) 19.00
South Lakes (57) 19.00

 

[Bounty13]

Week 3:

Region C
Hayfield (86) 28.67
Fairfax (102) 25.50
Lake Braddock (92) 23.00
South County (90) 22.50
-
West Potomac (44) 22.00
Lewis (65) 21.67
West Springfield (63) 21.00
Robinson (82) 20.50
=====
Falls Church (76) 19.00
Edison (53) 17.67
Justice (52) 17.33
Annandale (67) 16.75
C.G. Woodson (50) 16.67
Alexandria City (49) 16.33
Mount Vernon (48) 16.00

Region D
Madison (116) 29.00
Langley (114) 28.50
Washington-Liberty (112) 28.00
Chantilly (103) 25.75
-
Herndon (100) 25.00
McLean (99) 24.75
Marshall (98) 24.50
Yorktown (98) 24.50
=====
Westfield (72) 24.00
Oakton (91) 22.75
South Lakes (86) 21.50
Wakefield (77) 19.25
Centreville (74) 18.50

 

[Bounty13]

Week 4:

Region C
Hayfield (118) 29.50
Lake Braddock (126) 25.20
Fairfax (123) 24.60
West Springfield (96) 24.00
-
South County (113) 22.60
Robinson (112) 22.40
West Potomac (63) 21.00
Lewis (81) 20.25
=====
Alexandria City (77) 19.25
Mount Vernon (77) 19.25
Falls Church (96) 19.20
Justice (72) 18.00
Edison (71) 17.75
Annandale (88) 17.60
C.G. Woodson (65) 16.25

Region D
Madison (154) 30.80
Langley (144) 28.80
Washington-Liberty (140) 28.00
Herndon (133) 26.60
-
Marshall (131) 26.20
Westfield (103) 25.75
Chantilly (123) 24.60
Yorktown (119) 23.80
=====
McLean (117) 23.40
Oakton (109) 21.80
Centreville (107) 21.40
South Lakes (107) 21.40
Wakefield (106) 21.20

 

[Bounty13]

Week 5:

Region C
Hayfield (148) 29.60
Lake Braddock (156) 26.00
Fairfax (152) 25.33
West Springfield (115) 23.00
-
South County (136) 22.67
Robinson (113) 22.60
Alexandria City (109) 21.80
Mount Vernon (104) 20.80
=====
West Potomac (82) 20.50
Edison (100) 20.00
Falls Church (118) 19.67
Lewis (98) 19.60
Annandale (91) 18.20
Justice (90) 18.00
C.G. Woodson (86) 17.20

Region D
Madison (190) 31.67
Washington-Liberty (178) 29.67
Marshall (168) 28.00
Westfield (138) 27.60
-
Langley (165) 27.50
Chantilly (155) 25.83
Herndon (153) 25.50
Yorktown (150) 25.00
=====
McLean (121) 24.20
Oakton (111) 22.20
Centreville (128) 21.33
South Lakes (128) 21.33
Wakefield (128) 21.33

 

[SPL311U]

Well... Leave it to VHSL to screw up their own power points calculations. They show James Madison with a phantom loss in Week 2 (and Lake Braddock with a win) hence everything is jacked up...

 

[SV-Viking4]

The lady who was doing it for years, retired. Next year the job falls to each region. Somebody should hire @Bounty13.

 

[Bounty13]

Hah! I guess if they paid me enough anything is possible.

Jury's still out on their tracking of out of state games. It's not clear what schools they are recognizing as eligible or ineligible and if they are picking up on the wins/losses or by omission. As of right now, I have low confidence on the accuracy of any tiebreakers.

 

[Bounty13]

Week 6:

Region C
Hayfield (182) 30.33
Lake Braddock (161) 26.83
Fairfax (181) 25.86
West Springfield (151) 25.17
-
South County (172) 24.57
Mount Vernon (132) 22.00
Robinson (132) 22.00
Alexandria City (129) 21.50
=====
Edison (122) 20.33
West Potomac (100) 20.00
Falls Church (139) 19.86
Annandale (119) 19.83
Lewis (115) 19.17
Justice (108) 18.00
C.G. Woodson (107) 17.83

Region D
Madison (228) 32.57
Washington-Liberty (220) 31.43
Langley (199) 28.43
Marshall (194) 27.71
-
Herndon (189) 27.00
Westfield (162) 27.00
Yorktown (184) 26.29
Chantilly (176) 25.14
=====
Oakton (143) 23.83
McLean (140) 23.33
Centreville (132) 22.00
South Lakes (132) 22.00
Wakefield (151) 21.57

 

[EPJr]

 

[SV-Viking4]

I see a few differences, particuliarly with Lewis. Even VHSL has a different value. I assume it centers around Park View.
In all honesty the Lewis points probably wont matter much, but they could impact tiebreakers. W&L and McLean differences could impact seedings. Thanks to everyone who puts these out.

 

[Bounty13]

I had three differences with VHSL.

1. I have Annandale with one additional point. Bishop Ireton played Our Lady of Mount Carmel on 9/7 and won 27-23. However, this game does not appear on VHSL's master schedule for Bishop Ireton. I will need to contact VHSL to see if this is a recognized opponent and missing for their calculation.

2. I had Lewis with two additional points. I fat fingered an additional win for an opponent on their schedule and have corrected this.

3. I have Wakefield with two additional points, and in the course of researching this, it appears to now be four additional points. VHSL does not have Anacostia, DC on their master schedule but they are listed on the weekly ratings. However, they have them as 0-2 on the weekly ratings when their actual record is 2-4. VHSL is missing these two wins. I will need to contact them for correction.

Regarding the differences in the chart above on W&L and McLean, I don't know. Without seeing the math or where the differences are, I can't say for sure. But my math checks with VHSL on those two teams.

 

[SV-Viking4]

I appreciate all the posts on this site, especially ones that include math. Thanks as always for the effort!

 

[Bounty13]

I appreciate all the posts on this site, especially ones that include math. Thanks as always for the effort!

VHSL basically told me I didn’t know what I was talking about and to kick rocks. And if I have a problem with the calculations I should take it up with my schools administration.

 

[SV-Viking4]

VHSL basically told me I didn’t know what I was talking about and to kick rocks. And if I have a problem with the calculations I should take it up with my schools administration.

This is exactly what we expect from @VHSL. They make mistakes and get tired of being corrected. Try actually getting it right before publishing or possiblty following your own rules for a change. I just hope at the end of the year they do not screw someone. Please do not let this keep you from letting us know the proper points!

 

[Bounty13]

Week 7:

Region C
Hayfield (218) 31.14
Lake Braddock (194) 27.71
West Springfield (184) 26.29
Fairfax (183) 26.14
-
South County (178) 25.43
Robinson (159) 22.71
Mount Vernon (156) 22.29
Edison (152) 21.71
=====
Alexandria City (150) 21.43
West Potomac (121) 20.17
Falls Church (141) 20.14
Justice (140) 20.00
Annandale (139) 19.86 (+1 not recognized by VHSL)
Lewis (131) 18.71
C.G. Woodson (126) 18.00

Region D
Madison (236) 33.71
Washington-Liberty (226) 32.29
Langley (246) 30.75
Marshall (228) 28.50
-
Westfield (197) 28.14
Herndon (224) 28.00
Yorktown (206) 25.75
Chantilly (178) 25.43
=====
Oakton (175) 25.00
McLean (165) 23.57
Centreville (154) 22.00
Wakefield (174) 21.75 (+4 not recognized by VHSL)
South Lakes (152) 21.71

 

[Bounty13]

Week 8:

Region C
Hayfield (226) 32.29
Lake Braddock (234) 29.25
Fairfax (222) 27.75
South County (207) 25.88
-
West Springfield (207) 25.88
Mount Vernon (187) 23.38
Robinson (184) 23.00
Edison (181) 22.63
=====
West Potomac (155) 22.14
Falls Church (171) 21.38
Alexandria City (170) 21.25
Annandale (160) 20.00 (VHSL missing 1 point, should be 20.13)
Justice (160) 20.00
Lewis (151) 18.88
C.G. Woodson (146) 18.25

Region D
Madison (272) 34.00
Washington-Liberty (264) 33.00
Langley (250) 31.25
Westfield (239) 29.88
-
Herndon (263) 29.22
Marshall (253) 28.11
Yorktown (209) 26.13
Oakton (200) 25.00
=====
Chantilly (199) 24.88
Centreville (191) 23.88
McLean (190) 23.75
South Lakes (179) 22.38
Wakefield (179) 22.38 (VHSL missing 4 points, should be 22.88)

 

[Bounty13]

Week 9:

Region C
Hayfield (260) 32.50
Lake Braddock (280) 31.11
West Springfield (254) 28.22
Fairfax (248) 27.56
-
South County (235) 26.11
West Potomac (221) 24.56
Edison (216) 24.00
Mount Vernon (210) 23.33
=====
Alexandria City (208) 23.11
Robinson (208) 23.11
Falls Church (193) 21.44
Annandale (191) 21.22 (VHSL missing 1 point, should be 192/21.33)
Justice (185) 20.56
Lewis (170) 18.89
C.G. Woodson (167) 18.56

Region D
Madison (312) 34.67
Washington-Liberty (312) 34.67
Langley (279) 31.00
Westfield (278) 30.89
-
Herndon (266) 29.56
Yorktown (253) 28.11
Marshall (279) 27.90
Oakton (230) 25.56
=====
Centreville (226) 25.11
McLean (226) 25.11
Chantilly (225) 25.00
Wakefield (201) 22.33 (VHSL missing 6 points, should be 207/23.00)
South Lakes (198) 22.00

 

[Bounty13]

Region C Playoff Scenarios*
*As of 11/3 with all teams eligible for post-season play. Will update if anything changes.

IN:

HAYFIELD (@ 1-8 Lewis)
Current Points: 260
Max points with a win: 292-300
Max points with a loss: 280-288
Points with wins from: West Springfield +2, Annandale +2, Chantilly +2, South County +2

LAKE BRADDOCK (vs. 3-6 Robinson)
Current Points: 278
Max points with a win: 316-320
Max points with a loss: 302-306
Points with wins from: Colgan +2, Madison +1, Westfield +1

WEST SPRINGFIELD (vs. 0-9 C.G. Woodson)
Current Points: 254
Max points with a win: 283-291
Max points with a loss: 272-280
Points with wins from: Hayfield +1, West Potomac +1, Oakton +2, Yorktown +2, Fairfax +1, Robinson +1

FAIRFAX (@ 3-6 Alexandria City)
Current Points: 248
Max points with a win: 284-291
Max points with a loss: 270-277
Points with wins from: Wakefield +2, Oakton +1, Centreville +2, Robinson +1, C.G. Woodson +1

SOUTH COUNTY (@ 4-5 West Potomac)
Current Points: 235
Max points with a win: 273-277
Max points with a loss: 258-262
Points with wins from: Robinson +1, Alexandria +1, Hayfield +1, Madison +1

ON THE BUBBLE (5 TEAMS/3 SPOTS):

WEST POTOMAC (vs. 4-5 South County)
Current Points: 221
Max points with a win: 258-265
Max points with a loss: 243-250
Points with wins from: Mount Vernon +2, Centreville +2, Alexandria +1, Oakton +1, C.G. Woodson +1

- In with a win.
- In a loss, in with one loss from Alexandria or Robinson.
- Owns tiebreaker with Edison if both teams lose.

EDISON (vs. 4-5 Mount Vernon)
Current Points: 218
Max points with a win: 257-260
Max points with a loss: 242-245
Points with wins from: Lewis +1, Annandale +2

- In with a win.
- In a loss, in with losses from Alexandria and Robinson.

MOUNT VERNON (@ 4-5 Edison)
Current Points: 212
Max points with a win: 250-255
Max points with a loss: 235-240
Points with wins from: Unity Reed +1, Lewis +1, Annandale +2, West Potomac +1

- In a win, in with one loss from West Potomac, Alexandria, or Robinson OR beat one of West Potomac, Alexandria, or Robinson in points.
- In a loss, in with losses from Alexandria and Robinson AND beat Alexandria and Robinson in points.

ALEXANDRIA CITY (vs. 6-3 Fairfax)
Current Points: 209
Max points with a win: 251-255
Max points with a loss: 234-238
Points with wins from: Centreville +1, Colonial Forge +1, Forest Park +1, Robinson +1

- In a win, if Edison wins, in with a West Potomac loss OR beat Robinson in points.
- In a win, if Mount Vernon wins, in with a West Potomac loss OR beat Mount Vernon or Robinson in points.
- In a loss, if Edison wins, needs Robinson loss AND beat Mount Vernon and Robinson in points.

ROBINSON (@ 7-2 Lake Braddock)
Current Points: 208
Max points with a win: 251-257
Max points with a loss: 233-239
Points with wins from: West Potomac +1, South Lakes +2, Madison +1, Gainesville +1, C.G. Woodson +1

- In a win, in by beating two of West Potomac, Edison, Mount Vernon, or Alexandria in points.
- In a loss, in by beating Edison/Mount Vernon loser and Alexandria in points.

OUT: FALLS CHURCH, ANNANDALE, JUSTICE, LEWIS, C.G. WOODSON

 

[Bounty13]

Region D Playoff Scenarios

IN:

WASHINGTON-LIBERTY (@ 2-7 Wakefield)
Current Points: 314
Max points with a win: 348-356
Max points with a loss: 335-343
Points with wins from: Edison +2, Annandale +2, Lewis +2, Falls Church +2

MADISON (vs. 4-5 Centreville)
Current Points: 312
Max points with a win: 352-356
Max points with a loss: 337-341
Points with wins from: Stone Bridge +2, South County +2

LANGLEY (@ 4-5 McLean)
Current Points: 279
Max points with a win: 316-325
Max points with a loss: 301-310
Points with wins from: Oakton +2, Edison +2, Justice +2, Lightridge +2, Wakefield +1

WESTFIELD (vs. 2-7 South Lakes)
Current Points: 278
Max points with a win: 311-321
Max points with a loss: 298-308
Points with wins from: Patriot +1, Mount Vernon +2, Lake Braddock +2, Justice +2, Wakefield +2, Centreville +1

HERNDON (vs. 6-3 Yorktown)
Current Points: 266
Max points with a win: 306-316
Max points with a loss: 289-299
Points with wins from: Justice +2, McLean +1, Osbourn Park +2, Wakefield +1, South Lakes +2, Chantilly +2

YORKTOWN (@ 7-2 Herndon)
Current Points: 253
Max points with a win: 296-303
Max points with a loss: 278-285
Points with wins from: C.G. Woodson +1, Wakefield +1, Centreville +2, McLean +1, Jackson-Reed (DC) +2 (NOV 8)

MARSHALL (Idle)
Current Points: 279
Max points: 284-289
Points with wins from: Annandale +2, Madison +1, Wakefield +1, Herndon +1

ON THE BUBBLE (4 TEAMS/1 SPOT)

OAKTON (vs. 4-5 Chantilly)
Current Points: 230
Max points with a win: 267-274
Max points with a loss: 252-259
Points with wins from: Langley +1, Fairfax +2, C.G. Woodson +1, West Potomac +2, South Lakes +1

- In a win, in by beating Centreville and McLean in points.
- Out with a loss.

CENTREVILLE (@ 9-0 Madison)
Current Points: 226
Max points with a win: 274-279
Max points with a loss: 254-259
Points with wins from: Alexandria +1, West Potomac +1, Mountain View +1, Yorktown +1, South Lakes +1

- In a win, in by beating McLean in points.
- Out with a loss.

MCLEAN (vs. 7-2 Langley)
Current Points: 226
Max points with a win: 268-276
Max points with a loss: 250-258
Points with wins from: Meridian +2, Lewis +2, Chantilly +1, Edison +2, Wakefield +1

- In a win, in by beating winner of Oakton/Chantilly and Centreville in points.
- Out with a loss.

CHANTILLY (@ 4-5 Oakton)
Current Points: 225
Max points with a win: 261-270
Max points with a loss: 246-255
Points with wins from: Falls Church +2, C.G. Woodson +2, McLean +2, Hayfield +1, South Lakes +1, Herndon +1

- In a win, in by beating or tie McLean in points AND needs Centreville loss.
- Out with a loss.

OUT: WAKEFIELD, SOUTH LAKES

 

[SV-Viking4]

Week 9:

Region C
Hayfield (260) 32.50
Lake Braddock (280) 31.11
West Springfield (254) 28.22
Fairfax (248) 27.56
-
South County (235) 26.11
West Potomac (221) 24.56
Edison (216) 24.00
Mount Vernon (210) 23.33
=====
Alexandria City (208) 23.11
Robinson (208) 23.11
Falls Church (193) 21.44
Annandale (191) 21.22 (VHSL missing 1 point, should be 192/21.33)
Justice (185) 20.56
Lewis (170) 18.89
C.G. Woodson (167) 18.56

Region D
Madison (312) 34.67
Washington-Liberty (312) 34.67
Langley (279) 31.00
Westfield (278) 30.89
-
Herndon (266) 29.56
Yorktown (253) 28.11
Marshall (279) 27.90
Oakton (230) 25.56
=====
Centreville (226) 25.11
McLean (226) 25.11
Chantilly (225) 25.00
Wakefield (201) 22.33 (VHSL missing 6 points, should be 207/23.00)
South Lakes (198) 22.00

The very recently published numbers from VHSL are quite a bit different and not the mentioned differences from above.
Robinson, Lewis, Centreville, West Pot., Edison, Mt Vernon, Alex City, Falls Church.

Most only by a point or 2, but Robinson???

Alexandria City 21, James Robinson 13

 

[Bounty13]

The very recently published numbers from VHSL are quite a bit different and not the mentioned differences from above.
Robinson, Lewis, Centreville, West Pot., Edison, Mt Vernon, Alex City, Falls Church.

Most only by a point or 2, but Robinson???

Alexandria City 21, James Robinson 13

You are correct, there were some inconsistencies. I always reconcile what I have with VHSL when they release their points. Part of the issue is a lot of schools simply do not post finals, and I wind up relying on a single point of failure. During the final week of the season, I always get two sources just to make sure things like this don't happen.

1. Had the winner of Meridian/Warren County incorrect. NFHS had the wrong score listed on their lower third. So even when consulting video, it was wrong.

This resulted in a McLean -2.

2. Had the winner of Colgan/Forest Park incorrect. Don't remember where I got that score.

This resulted in a Lake Braddock -2, Alexandria +1.

3. Had the winner of T.J./Lewis incorrect. This game happened back in Week 7. VHSL had this incorrect on their weekly ratings for the past three weeks as well. Scorestream still lists the incorrect score of T.J. 23-0. Lewis won 33-30.

This resulted in a McLean +2, Washington-Liberty +2, Mount Vernon +2, Edison +2, Justice +2, Falls Church +2, Annandale, +2.


What impact did all of this have?

For Region D, no change for McLean as they +2/-2 netted zero points. Washington-Liberty does take a 2-point lead over Madison going into the final week. However, Madison is still in the driver's seat for securing the #1 seed. Washington-Liberty would need some help from some unlikely places (Annandale, Lewis, Falls Church) to have a shot. I'm not sure what a tie breaker would look like, but my guess is Madison would have an edge. Madison's SOS currently with 43 wins to Washington-Liberty's 42.

For Region C, small boost for Edison, Mount Vernon, and Alexandria, but it doesn't change their standings or any of the scenarios.

So, here's the updated points. I've also updated the above scenario for Yorktown, as Ballou lost tonight's game, which lowers Yorktown's ceiling.

Region C
Hayfield (260) 32.50
Lake Braddock (278) 30.89
West Springfield (254) 28.22
Fairfax (248) 27.56
-
South County (235) 26.11
West Potomac (221) 24.56
Edison (218) 24.22
Mount Vernon (212) 23.56
=====
Alexandria City (209) 23.22
Robinson (208) 23.11
Falls Church (195) 21.67
Annandale (193) 21.44
Justice (187) 20.78
Lewis (182) 20.22
C.G. Woodson (167) 18.56

Region D
Washington-Liberty (314) 34.89
Madison (312) 34.67
Langley (279) 31.00
Westfield (278) 30.89
-
Herndon (266) 29.56
Yorktown (253) 28.11
Marshall (279) 27.90
Oakton (230) 25.56
=====
Centreville (226) 25.11
McLean (226) 25.11
Chantilly (225) 25.00
Wakefield (201) 22.33
South Lakes (198) 22.00

 

[SV-Viking4]

Thanks as always. VHSL published on Monday around Noon. They had several scores wrong, the one I saw with the most impact (For C and D) was the Robinson-Alex City game.

The fixed and re-published at 4:15.

 

[SV-Viking4]

So I am at a point where I believe Hayfield will be disqualified from the playoffs. Posting this in the Hayfield thread is pointless with the way that is going. 😊

If they are exonerated, then the following is irrelevant.

What happens to the power points and standings?

1. Just leave everything the way it is and everyone in Region C moves up 1 spot.
2. Make all Hayfield games forfeits, basically would give every opponent 3 more power points. ( A loss to HF would be 14+9 pts and a win vs a winless team is 26+0)
3. Make all games against HF a no-contest and all opponents only have 9 games and divide the points gained in other contests and divide by 9.

For #2 above: all opponents would gain 3 pts divided by 10 =.3 rating boost.
For #3 above and using Chantilly as an example as they stand now, they would move up from the 10th seed to 9. Current a bump of .375 on rating.
Also in #2 the opponents-opponents would get bonus points, Chantilly would be 5-4, so following Chantilly as an example Westfield would have 2 more points, giving them a much more likely path to pass Langley for the 3 seed.

Honestly probably will not make a difference, and I’m not sure if there is any precedence, but it could matter.