4A West Points - Who can recover and still make the playoffs

[New Guy 17]

I feel pretty good that the following is accurate. Several normal playoff teams with a lot of work to do - GW, LCA, Jefferson Forest, Sherando, Liberty all wouldn't make it if the season ended today. The season doesn't end today though, so who will recover and still get in?

Pulaski County 25
Amherst County 24.6666666666667
EC Glass 24.5
Millbrook 24.5
Woodgrove 24.5
Heritage 22.25
John Champe 22
Salem 21.6666666666667
Loudoun Valley 21.5
Freedom 21
William Byrd 21
Charlottesville 20
Dominion 20
George Washington 19
Liberty Christian 18.75
Fauquier 18
Park View 17.75
William Fleming 17.5
Carroll County 16
Harrisonburg 16
Jefferson Forest 16
James Wood 15.75
Sherando 15.75
Rock Ridge 15.25
Handley 14.75
Liberty 13.3333333333333
Kettle Run 13.25
Bassett 13
Loudoun Co. 13

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

GW should get in if there's no other let down (easiest schedule of the teams listed) plus I think Glass will eventually drop and there will be some shifting. MV, Martinsville and Tunstall all will be tough games for GW. Tunstall may very well end GW playoff hopes next week. Glass has Heritage, Amherst, Rustburg ,Brookville and JF remaining. JF will make a late season push. LCA and Sherando are the best teams out of the playoffs right now IMO. LCA went toe to toe with Amherst and competed well with a high school 757 all star team in Bishop Sullivan. Sherando still has Fort Hill and Millbrook (who I'm picking in pick em to upset Woodgrove this week) and if injuries don't slow them down, I think the Warriors get in.

 

[86CulpGrad]

Sherando will go 6-4 or 5-5. They probably have a shot to get back in.

 

[hamspear]

Big kahunas picking Millbrook to beat Woodgrove ! But who am I to say anything about the pickem, I am in the cellar of pickem totals status haha

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

Big kahunas picking Millbrook to beat Woodgrove ! But who am I to say anything about the pickem, I am in the cellar of pickem totals status haha

Millbrook looks real good. After personally watching Wgrove's defense struggle with Navy Jones and Cam Miller last November I feel that Pk Kier can do the same. You're more familiar with Millbrook, how do you think it'll turn out?

 

[ClarkeFan83]

Millbrook looks real good. After personally watching Wgrove's defense struggle with Navy Jones and Cam Miller last November I feel that Pk Kier can do the same. You're more familiar with Millbrook, how do you think it'll turn out?

Do not overlook Millbrook's Savon Smith. That kid is fast and can cut like a Ginsu knife.

 

[hamspear]

smith is the better Back IMO. But Millbrook will struggle with no QB or passing game and no defense. I will go with Woodgrove 49 Millbrook 21

 

[hamspear]

You guys need to look who these teams have played, SOS is a big factor here. Millbrook has not played any team that is not or would not be in the bottom of 4A rankings.

 

[mike salem]

Sherando will go 6-4 or 5-5. They probably have a shot to get back in.

With 4A West only taking 12 teams 6-4 is the absolute bottom and would only qualify in that case if the 4 losses were to very good teams with 8+ wins apiece. (Sherando will probably fall in this category if they are 6-4 at the end of the season, this is not a prognostication, just an observation) William Byrd missed last year at 6-4 with losses to 10-0 Salem, 9-1 LB, 8-2 Magna Vista and Northside. 7 isn't necessarily always safe either as Loudoun Valley and Harrisonburg missed the playoffs with 7 wins and a weaker schedule. Sherando would qualify with 7 wins and that schedule, might miss if they only got 6. Lot of football left to play. (Including this week, 7 more weeks remain.)

 

[SpartanOfYore]

Gentleman, please.....it's still summer.



Sorry, someone had to do it.

 

[OCBoy]

Gentleman, please.....it's still summer.

View embedded media

Sorry, someone had to do it.

True but as fast as time is flying it will be the end of season before we know it

 

[hamspear]

Sherando plays 4 teams that in all probability will go undefeated in the regular season, do you get points for teams you lost to and the amount of wins they had?

 

[mike salem]

4 weeks ago we were talkin bout practice!

 

[mike salem]

Sherando plays 4 teams that in all probability will go undefeated in the regular season, do you get points for teams you lost to and the amount of wins they had?

Yes 1 pt for each opponent's win if you lose to the opponent.

2 points for each opponent's win if you beat them.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

Hey, I don't want to be Billy Buzzkill here. I just don't see much point to having any points-based discussion about the playoffs until every team has played at least seven games. The picture won't even begin to come into focus until then.

But, since I have no desire to be banished to Highland County or some other location where they don't play football, I'll refrain from any further parade-raining remarks.

 

[hamspear]

I agree but what other super interesting topic you want to talk about?

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Hey, I don't want to be Billy Buzzkill here. I just don't see much point to having any points-based discussion about the playoffs until every team has played at least seven games. The picture won't even begin to come into focus until then.

But, since I have no desire to be banished to Highland County or some other location where they don't play football, I'll refrain from any further parade-raining remarks.

Killjoy!!!

 

[mike salem]

Hey, I don't want to be Billy Buzzkill here. I just don't see much point to having any points-based discussion about the playoffs until every team has played at least seven games. The picture won't even begin to come into focus until then.

But, since I have no desire to be banished to Highland County or some other location where they don't play football, I'll refrain from any further parade-raining remarks.

No banishment forthcoming my friend.

It's too early to talk about, but Pandora's box is always opened on this subject too early every year.

Full disclosure: objects in mirror may be closer than they appear. For those of you looking at the playoffs now, the picture will change dramatically in the next 7 weeks, look now at your own potential peril!

 

[OCBoy]

Hey, I don't want to be Billy Buzzkill here. I just don't see much point to having any points-based discussion about the playoffs until every team has played at least seven games. The picture won't even begin to come into focus until then.

But, since I have no desire to be banished to Highland County or some other location where they don't play football, I'll refrain from any further parade-raining remarks.

Your fine keep on killing joy, billy buzzkill hahaha

 

[SpartanOfYore]

I agree but what other super interesting topic you want to talk about?

Killjoy!!!

I prefer the more hip "buzzkill."

 

[mike salem]

I agree but what other super interesting topic you want to talk about?

I know right, we get bored.
I better go work on my 3 Things To Know article for Salem/Hidden Valley to be put on GamedayMagazine.com if I do a good job anyway.

My last 3 Things article accidentally got lost in the Producers email spam till last night so it was too late to run.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

No banishment forthcoming my friend.

It's too early to talk about, but Pandora's box is always opened on this subject too early every year.

Full disclosure: objects in mirror may be closer than they appear. For those of you looking at the playoffs now, the picture will change dramatically in the next 7 weeks, look now at your own potential peril!

Thanks for holding off on the banishment. When I wrote "some other location where they don't play football", I almost added "like southwest county", but I figured that little jibe would really draw someone's wrath.

 

[mike salem]

Thanks for holding off on the banishment. When I wrote "some other location where they don't play football", I almost added "like southwest county", but I figured that little jibe would really draw someone's wrath.

Ouch!

 

[DinwiddieProud]

But Spartan, you know we are all hopelessly addicted. You also will remember that this type of speculation started a little before the season started, like during December of 2015!

Honestly though, I think we can take a look at the teams that are a few wins in or out of the playoffs. And speculate, based on the results so far and their remaining schedule. There are a few we KNOW are going to be in the playoffs, and some that have NO hope. But those teams "in-between" are a curiosity that we just can't help but wonder "what if"?

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Ouch is right. We call something said like that as "self-flagellation" where I come from!

 

[greyfox60]

Ouch is right. We call something said like that as "self-flagellation" where I come from!

Dang that sounds like a 15 yarder!

 

[Shruikan]

I think Sherando gets in if they go 6-4. They'll be the most dangerous 6-4 team in the state if they do, given that (assuming a loss to Fort Hill) every team they lost to has a good chance of ending up undefeated in the regular season, or at most 1 loss I'd say.

That being said, Millbrook is a lot better than they're being given credit for. I'm aware they play a cupcake schedule for the most part, but I can't see them being any worse than 8-1 when they play Sherando. They're the real deal, and I think they'll show a lot against Woodgrove this weekend.

Either way I think they need to beat either Fort Hill or Millbrook to get in, and not drop any others. If they end up 5-5 and their five losses came to teams that were a combined 50-0, I think that would be impressive in its own right.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

But Spartan, you know we are all hopelessly addicted. You also will remember that this type of speculation started a little before the season started, like during December of 2015!

Honestly though, I think we can take a look at the teams that are a few wins in or out of the playoffs. And speculate, based on the results so far and their remaining schedule. There are a few we KNOW are going to be in the playoffs, and some that have NO hope. But those teams "in-between" are a curiosity that we just can't help but wonder "what if"?

Okay, I'll play along. Out of the group of five of Loudoun Valley, William Byrd, Dominion, Charlottesville, and GW, one or more of them are going to end up staying home, due to 4A West's twelve-team limit. Byrd is an interesting case. They currently stand 3-1, but their defeated opponents have only combined for three wins. The Terriers could go either way from here. I could see them winning out to finish 9-1; it's also possible that they could suffer two tough losses, say to Staunton River and LB, and barely miss out like last year. Byrd plays SR at home and LB away, so I think they'll be safely in at 8-2, probably in the seventh to tenth seed range.

There look to be a host of teams that are likely to finish in the 8-2, 7-3 range all vying for those last spots. I refuse to get into arguing about who has the easiest schedule, but among that group, IMHO GW and C'ville have the least rocky paths. C'ville finishes with Louisa, so they better win all of them up until that game. GW probably can't afford any more slip-ups, with the low number of bonus points their defeated opponents will provide.

Heritage (Leesburg) and Glass are also both in interesting positions. The Pride will likely be 5-1, but then comes the serious work of Woodgrove (away), Champe, and Dominion (away). Can they take two of those three? Glass, off to its best start since DP was in his early-to-mid fifties, likewise will see things get tougher. That 4-0 start could conceivably become a 7-3 finish, and heartbreak.

As far as the top tier, it doesn't take much of a crystal ball to say that the top four will come out of Woodgrove, Salem, Amherst, Pulaski, and Millbrook. One of those five fine teams will just miss out on the first round bye week.

So there - I can play nicely.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

It also occurred to me that we have the possibility of Salem, Pulaski, Millbrook, Woodgrove and Amherst Co. all finishing at 9-1. That would be interesting. On the other hand, Amherst, Pulaski, and the Woodgrove/Millbrook winner could all finish 10-0. My personal thoughts at this juncture are Woodgrove will be the only undefeated team, with four or more teams at 9-1, if Byrd, Glass, and others join the party.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

See, I new we could pull you over to the dark side!

Good analysis. I agree with your concerns about Byrd. 7-3 might get them in, but I think that is the best they can do. I don't think they can stop the SR offense, and I don't give them a chance at LB. I know that LB has put up those huge numbers against less than stellar competition, but they are for real. As you know, I saw what kind of program LB has when we scrimmaged them. They held there own against Dinwiddie that day. Dinwiddie was a bit more polished, and somewhat quicker, but the Cavaliers are legit.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

See, I new we could pull you over to the dark side!

Good analysis. I agree with your concerns about Byrd. 7-3 might get them in, but I think that is the best they can do. I don't think they can stop the SR offense, and I don't give them a chance at LB. I know that LB has put up those huge numbers against less than stellar competition, but they are for real. As you know, I saw what kind of program LB has when we scrimmaged them. They held there own against Dinwiddie that day. Dinwiddie was a bit more polished, and somewhat quicker, but the Cavaliers are legit.

I think Byrd's games with both SR and LB will be like those contests last year - tough, hard-fought, could go either way. I know LB is for real, but so is Byrd. I think the one-dimensional nature of their offense often gets them overlooked. Their run defense is very good, and though I'm not overly familiar with either LB's or SR's box scores this season, I believe both feature the running attack, especially SR. So, those games will be strength against strength. I definitely think Byrd (barring injuries) has a good chance to beat SR at home, and a decent chance at Botetourt. Both SR and LB will have to take advantage of the numerous pass opportunities that should be open, as Byrd left open against Salem. Byrd will have to get someone else involved catching the ball, as Basham will have the team, the band, and the cheerleaders keying on him.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

For sure, no place for someone that big to hide.

Byrd is a lot like Hanover and their stud QB Cheatham this year. Hanover does not have the horses they had last year, so every team they face make a game plan to limit the run yardage by Cheatham. In effect they say "Cheatham will not beat us on the ground, he will have to do it through the air". Partly because Hanover lost a couple of their leading receivers to injuries before the season even started, they haven't had much success there.

So, it's real easy on paper, just stop Basham! Yeah, right!

 

[Salesguy1086]

You guys need to look who these teams have played, SOS is a big factor here. Millbrook has not played any team that is not or would not be in the bottom of 4A rankings.

The combined won/loss record for Millbrook opponents is 4-9. Woodgrove's opponents are a combined 5-9. This stat looks like a push to me.