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4D Playoff Standings-Week 9

BoKnowsSports

VaPreps All District
Sep 19, 2021
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VHSL - Region 4D Rankings after Week 9

#1 y-George Washington
#2 Jefferson Forest
#3 y-Sherando
#4 John Handley
#5 Salem
#6 Mecklenburg County
#7 James Wood
#8 Orange County
#9 E.C. Glass
#10 Amherst County
#11 Blacksburg
#12 Millbrook
#13 Halifax County
#14 e-Liberty-Bealeton
#15 e-Charlottesville

y-clinched playoff berth
e-eliminated from playoff contention
 
So so so much wrong with this. No way Mecklenburg is a playoff team over Amherst or Glass. Not just picking on them but who in the heck has James Wood beaten this season? This system is bad.
 
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Well Mecklenburg still has to play GW and Magna Vista
Glass and Amherst still have to play Heritage. It will be close. I will do a max points tonight to see where teams fall if everything goes in their favor
 
Amherst lost Rustburg and still has to play Heritage you are Correct Glass has to play Heritage Salem has to play Christiansburg and Blacksburg JF has to play LCA and Amherst
 
I think in the end it’s all gonna work out Bo just looking at the remaining schedules for the teams
I like the good football analysis SFU and Bo good stuff
 
Glass and Amherst still have to play Heritage. It will be close. I will do a max points tonight to see where teams fall if everything goes in their favor
Amherst already played Heritage. Amherst has JF and Liberty left
 
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So so so much wrong with this. No way Mecklenburg is a playoff team over Amherst or Glass. Not just picking on them but who in the heck has James Wood beaten this season? This system is bad.
Well, James Wood beat Skyline, who has won 5 games since then and might win 1 or 2 more. But I understand your point. They beat a team who has beat a bunch of nobodies. Skyline's best win was Millbrook.
 
Well, James Wood beat Skyline, who has won 5 games since then and might win 1 or 2 more. But I understand your point. They beat a team who has beat a bunch of nobodies. Skyline's best win was Millbrook.
Yeah that’s not playoff worthy over Amherst or Glass IMO.. Glass beat PH Roanoke, Botty (#1 seed in 3D), and played a full Seminole slate. Amherst played GW, wrecked Mecklenburg (who shouldn’t be in the playoff either; weakest schedule in all of 4D), and played a full Seminole slate. I don’t want to come off like I’m downing the NW teams. I think Handley and Sherando will be contenders in 4D.
 
Who is at 9 and 10

Almost certainly Glass and Amherst, just like right now. Both teams need to win out (Heritage and Rustburg for Glass, JF and Lib-Bedford for Amherst) to really have a shot, especially Amherst because while I do expect them to snag that fifth win, Lib-Bedford is almost certainly finishing 0-10 and will actually drag Amherst's points down. Glass can probably weather a loss to Heritage because a win over a 6-4 Rustburg can buoy the rest of what they need.

James Wood and Orange are ahead of them (JW 7th, Orange 8th seed atm). JW is playing a Lib-Bealeton that will go 0-10 and a Millbrook that should finish 3-7, it'll find little help there and probably needs rider points to pick up the slack or they may drop down a bit but should still make the playoffs. Orange has 6-2 Monticello and a winless Cville team left, they're in if they beat Monticello and I think they may miss out if they lose depending on some things.

Rivalry game and all but assuming the better team wins this Friday in Lynchburg then Glass needs to hope for a Monticello win over Orange and then get the victory next week against Rustburg. Amherst probably has to beat JF because of how much that Lib-Bedford game will drag it down but idk, others are better with these numbers than me and I'm just sort of eyeballing it anyway. A Monticello win creates chaos at the bottom for sure. JW should be locked in assuming no upsets against Millbrook.

Salem seems a virtual 4/5 lock barring really weird stuff. I'm not sure if Handley beating Sherando would send them above Sherando into the 3 or what. It's either Handley beats Sherando and is the definite 4 or skips up to 3 and Sherando takes the 4 or Sherando beats Handley and Salem slips into the 4 and hosts week one.
 
Almost certainly Glass and Amherst, just like right now. Both teams need to win out (Heritage and Rustburg for Glass, JF and Lib-Bedford for Amherst) to really have a shot, especially Amherst because while I do expect them to snag that fifth win, Lib-Bedford is almost certainly finishing 0-10 and will actually drag Amherst's points down. Glass can probably weather a loss to Heritage because a win over a 6-4 Rustburg can buoy the rest of what they need.

James Wood and Orange are ahead of them (JW 7th, Orange 8th seed atm). JW is playing a Lib-Bealeton that will go 0-10 and a Millbrook that should finish 3-7, it'll find little help there and probably needs rider points to pick up the slack or they may drop down a bit but should still make the playoffs. Orange has 6-2 Monticello and a winless Cville team left, they're in if they beat Monticello and I think they may miss out if they lose depending on some things.

Rivalry game and all but assuming the better team wins this Friday in Lynchburg then Glass needs to hope for a Monticello win over Orange and then get the victory next week against Rustburg. Amherst probably has to beat JF because of how much that Lib-Bedford game will drag it down but idk, others are better with these numbers than me and I'm just sort of eyeballing it anyway. A Monticello win creates chaos at the bottom for sure. JW should be locked in assuming no upsets against Millbrook.

Salem seems a virtual 4/5 lock barring really weird stuff. I'm not sure if Handley beating Sherando would send them above Sherando into the 3 or what. It's either Handley beats Sherando and is the definite 4 or skips up to 3 and Sherando takes the 4 or Sherando beats Handley and Salem slips into the 4 and hosts week one.
Amherst doesn't really lose much for win over Liberty, they are at 22.75 right now, and will get 22 points for Liberty.

If we just add that single game to the points, Amherst drops to 22.67.

But as a whole, if we assume Salem and up is in, then these 5 teams are playing for 3 spots. And these are their current total points:

Mecklenburg 198
James Wood 191
Orange 186
Glass 183
Amherst 182
 
Amherst doesn't really lose much for win over Liberty, they are at 22.75 right now, and will get 22 points for Liberty.

If we just add that single game to the points, Amherst drops to 22.67.

But as a whole, if we assume Salem and up is in, then these 5 teams are playing for 3 spots. And these are their current total points:

Mecklenburg 198
James Wood 191
Orange 186
Glass 183
Amherst 182

I'm not even sure the top 2 are in danger. Mecklenburg should lose out to GW and MV but get a lot of rider points. JW is playing two bad to really bad teams. I'm not even sure if there will be suspense next week beyond placement if Orange beats Monticello.
 
I completed the max points possible for top 5 teams. This is Max for each team individually if everything goes their way.

GW Danville 30.3
Jefferson Forrest 30.7 (LCA win) 28.9 (lose to LCA)
Sherando 30.0
Handley 28.4
Salem 27.9 I predict (27.3)
 
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Everyone has kind of penciled in a W for Sherando over Handley. Lee Corso would say not so fast my friend, Handley beat Sherando last year. This year Kettle Run beat Sherando 45-20, but only beat Handley 34-28.
Sherando at Handley is completely a toss up in my opinion . Even give the edge to Handley playing at home on a Saturday . Sherando will run all over Handley , and Handley will pass all over Sherando . Both QB’s are 60 to 80 percent of the offense . I might even have to pick Handley that game , and I’m always a homer when it comes to Sherando.
 
Amherst doesn't really lose much for win over Liberty, they are at 22.75 right now, and will get 22 points for Liberty.

If we just add that single game to the points, Amherst drops to 22.67.

But as a whole, if we assume Salem and up is in, then these 5 teams are playing for 3 spots. And these are their current total points:

Mecklenburg 198
James Wood 191
Orange 186
Glass 183
Amherst 182
Will Amherst out point Glass if they lose to Heriage and Amherst beats Liberty?
 
Will Amherst out point Glass if they lose to Heriage and Amherst beats Liberty?
Amherst would makeup 5 points in that scenario. Glass only leads by 1 point currently. I believe they finish higher in the ratings Amherst would get 22 W 2 for beating Liberty
Glass would only get 8 L 11
It will come down to what the out of district teams do. District teams won't change point standing much because both teams play the same teams.
 
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Amherst would makeup 5 points in that scenario. Glass only leads by 1 point currently. I believe they finish higher in the ratings Amherst would get 22 W 2 for beating Liberty
Glass would only get 8 L 11
It will come down to what the out of district teams do. District teams won't change point standing much because both teams play the same teams.

I don't think Amherst gets any help whatsoever there. Both teams played GW so that's a wash but Amherst played Mecklenburg County who still has a game left against GW so that's a +1 for Glass. LB and PH, Glass' other OOD, are playing bad teams they should both roll (only upset chance, however slim, might be FC over LB). As said, Amherst has Mecklenburg County and I expect them to lose out (GW and MV). Harrisonburg is Amherst's third OOD and they're totally hapless and should lose out to William Monroe and Broadway. William Monroe is nearly as bad (only one win) but they're at least throwing punches in most of their games whereas Harrisonburg has only scored 30 points all season.

Basically, I expect Glass to get full rider points in these last two weeks and Amherst is very likely to gain no ground on Glass from these points. Amherst needs Glass to lose out or to pull off the upset this Friday.
 
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Glass doesn't get a +1 for Gw if both teams played them.
I have Amherst with a 4 point edge with a win and Glass loss.
LB and PH would give Glass 4 points.
At best Glass would tie Amherst from what I'm looking at.
 
Glass doesn't get a +1 for Gw if both teams played them.
I have Amherst with a 4 point edge with a win and Glass loss.
LB and PH would give Glass 4 points.
At best Glass would tie Amherst from what I'm looking at.

Yea, my mistake, was looking at it from the wrong direction.

I'd guess 4D's first tiebreaker is the head-to-head, right? Just making a guess but iirc each region handles ties for the purposes of the first three games and H2H is often the first tiebreaker.
 
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