Calpreps picks for Class 2 from Around the State if the Teams played Today

[Fairlawncat]

Some interesting Calpreps matchups from around the state that are predicted if the two teams were to play today. A couple of teams may surprise here that almost nobody has talked about much.

Region A
Surely, it's a 2 horse race with Poquoson/King William at 1 and 2 right? Well, the computer things different
Poquoson 31, King William 17
Poquoson 38, Central Lunenburg 26
Central Lunenburg 30, King William 28

Region B
In B, it's as most think it is, Riverheads/Central at top, but Buckingham/Strasburg fairly close and Clarke 5th
Riverheads 17, Woodstock 14
Central Woodstock 19, Buckingham 10
Riverheads 21, Buckingham 7
Riverheads 28, Clarke County 7
Riverheads 27, Strasburg 14
Central 26, Strasburg 14
Strasburg 20, Buckingham 19
Buckingham 19, Clarke County 14

Region C
Who's the computer picks 2nd best team behind Radford? It is Gretna, Appo, Glenvar? Nope...it's Alleghany, but Alleghany is now Class 3 this year, so it's Gretna and Appo followed by Glenvar.
Radford, 35, Gretna 19
Radford 42, Appo 20
Radford 38, Alleghany 24
Radford 35, Glenvar 13
Alleghany 28-21 over Gretna
Alleghany 28-21 over Glenvar
Alleghany 35-21 over Appo

Region D
Who's the computer picks 3rd best team behind Union and Graham. Ridgeview is it, right? Nope....
Union 21, Graham 20
Union 31, Ridgeview 8
Union 35, Tazewell 21
Tazewell 34, Ridgeview 28

 

[Fairlawncat]

Some interesting out of Region Matchups Calpreps Predicts if the Two Teams Played Today

Right Now, the Computer likes Radford to beat everyone in Class 2 if they played today. The following 4 teams are very, very close in Union, Graham, Riverheads, Central, and Poquoson isn't far off.

Riverheads 20, Union 14.
Riverheads 21, Graham 20
Radford 28, Riverheads 19
Radford 31, Central 17
Radford 31, Union 17
Radford 34, Graham 26
Radford 38, Poquoson 21
Union 24, Poquoson 21
Central Woodstock 26, Poquoson 21
Riverheads 26, Poquoson 16
Central Woodstock 19, Union 17
Graham 24, Central Woodstock 20

 

[halfbackpass]

Nice research! Thanks! Alleghany moved up to 3A

 

[Fairlawncat]

Nice research! Thanks! Alleghany moved up to 3A

Great. Didn't know that and we have played them and they are in the same region as us (were) and I still didn't know it.

 

[BigWinners]

Some interesting out of Region Matchups Calpreps Predicts if the Two Teams Played Today

Right Now, the Computer likes Radford to beat everyone in Class 2 if they played today. The following 4 teams are very, very close in Union, Graham, Riverheads, Central, and Poquoson isn't far off.

Riverheads 20, Union 14.
Riverheads 21, Graham 20
Radford 28, Riverheads 19
Radford 31, Central 17
Radford 31, Union 17
Radford 34, Graham 26
Radford 38, Poquoson 21
Union 24, Poquoson 21
Central Woodstock 26, Poquoson 21
Riverheads 26, Poquoson 16
Central Woodstock 19, Union 17
Graham 24, Central Woodstock 20

Crazy all the love for Graham, they haven’t exactly racked up a ton of quality wins. This week will tell us a lot for 2D, if Graham wins big and Union falters, Graham is gonna be a big factor going forward.

 

[Gridiron1960]

Looks like Radford vs Riverheads in Salem with the Bobcats taking home the championship if CalPreps holds up! If I were a betting person which I'm not, I'm not sure that's how it will shake out. It could but it's also football & anything can happen especially in the playoffs.

 

[19GHS87]

At this point, I would have to pick Union or Radford in the finals against Riverheads or Central.

Anything can happen. Pulling for Graham, but they have a lot of things to improve on. Lot of raw talent on the team, but still much to improve on and its getting late in the season. They do have a couple guys that can make something out of nothing, so I give them a fighters chance against any opponent

 

[MCAthletics]

I’d have a HARD time picking anybody over Central Woodstock right now.

 

[Gridiron1960]

I’d have a HARD time picking anybody over Central Woodstock right now.

I've said all along that I think they'll be in Salem again. With Forbes & Lopez , they'll be a tough out for anyone. Those boys are top tier talent work horses. They got a taste of Salem and they'll do what it takes to get back there again.

 

[19GHS87]

Crazy all the love for Graham, they haven’t exactly racked up a ton of quality wins. This week will tell us a lot for 2D, if Graham wins big and Union falters, Graham is gonna be a big factor going forward.

I'm not sold on Graham, even with the return of Clements. This season has a different feel to it. They have some big and strong kids, yet the physicality doesn't seem to be where it was the previous 2 years. The tackling isn't as good and the blocking on the O-Line isn't as consistent. I would like to see them bring back that big boy package they used last season with the run game. Throw in the injuries and youth and you just don't get the same vibe with this group. They are certainly very talented and could very well pull it all together and make a serious run. The game on Friday will tell a lot about them. They looked good offensively last week and cut down on the penalties, but the defense struggled.

 

[Gridiron1960]

I'm not sold on Graham, even with the return of Clements. This season has a different feel to it. They have some big and strong kids, yet the physicality doesn't seem to be where it was the previous 2 years. The tackling isn't as good and the blocking on the O-Line isn't as consistent. I would like to see them bring back that big boy package they used last season with the run game. Throw in the injuries and youth and you just don't get the same vibe with this group. They are certainly very talented and could very well pull it all together and make a serious run. The game on Friday will tell a lot about them. They looked good offensively last week and cut down on the penalties, but the defense struggled.

I feel like losing yet another defensive starter last week for the remainder of the regular season maybe longer hurt them against Pulaski. They used a freshman DB in his place who obviously wasn't ready to be a starter in that position and seemed to shift some others. Truthfully, a couple upperclassmen don't seem to be playing as well as they did last season. I really think this group is missing the leadership that last year's Seniors brought to the field. It's hard to match the on field leadership of Connor Roberts, Cody Dolin, Ethan Alvis, Brayden Meadows, etc. Hopefully, they work out those hiccups this week because Tazewell is a much better throwing team than Pulaski. Pulaski had receivers wide open several times.

 

[Hokie1Pokie]

I liked Grahams chances against anyone and a good chance for repeat coming into season but the injuries are too much. We've basically lost 1/3rd of the starters on O and D that aren't there. Just to much to overcome to win a title and it's a shame because they had a good chance of repeating.

 

[vt_hokies]

Who got injured vs Pulaski?

 

[Gridiron1960]

Who got injured vs Pulaski?

Lost a starter before the game , earlier in the week. He may or may not be back for playoffs.

 

[vt_hokies]

Lost a starter before the game , earlier in the week. He may or may not be back for playoffs.

who?

 

[MarlburlMan]

Some interesting out of Region Matchups Calpreps Predicts if the Two Teams Played Today

Right Now, the Computer likes Radford to beat everyone in Class 2 if they played today. The following 4 teams are very, very close in Union, Graham, Riverheads, Central, and Poquoson isn't far off.

Riverheads 20, Union 14.
Riverheads 21, Graham 20
Radford 28, Riverheads 19
Radford 31, Central 17
Radford 31, Union 17
Radford 34, Graham 26
Radford 38, Poquoson 21
Union 24, Poquoson 21
Central Woodstock 26, Poquoson 21
Riverheads 26, Poquoson 16
Central Woodstock 19, Union 17
Graham 24, Central Woodstock 20

How historically accurate are the Calpreps playoff predictions?

 

[blackknight_pride]

Some interesting out of Region Matchups Calpreps Predicts if the Two Teams Played Today

How historically accurate are the Calpreps playoff predictions?

I don't have exact numbers but I would say they are pretty accurate when predicting a winner, especially after the regular season is finished. Of course they have been wrong plenty of times before but I would say they pick the winner right about 75% of the time in the playoffs.

 

[Hokie1Pokie]

They can't account for injuries though. Much of Buckinghams data and picks will be skewed low and same for Sussex as both without major starters early o from what i read on here. For Poqouson and Graham, probably skewed to high. Both with major injuries of top players

 

[7MileFord]

who?

13

 

[1MoreHokie]

Some interesting out of Region Matchups Calpreps Predicts if the Two Teams Played Today

How historically accurate are the Calpreps playoff predictions?

These aren't actually playoff predictions, these are projections of potential games based on how the season has gone thus far i.e. if the two teams involved were to play basically right now, they would predict the games to play out as such. Future wins and losses by the teams involved can change the score and/or outcome. They pick games every week after week five (so they have enough data to begin picking accurately). Projections drop each Wednesday, here is this week's https://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2023/weekview.pl?week=Virginia_11

CalPreps picks VA at essentially the same rate as they are picking nationally thus far in 2023, a smidge below 84%.

calpreps.com Freeman Ratings

 

[MarlburlMan]

These aren't actually playoff predictions, these are projections of potential games based on how the season has gone thus far i.e. if the two teams involved were to play basically right now, they would predict the games to play out as such. Future wins and losses by the teams involved can change the score and/or outcome. They pick games every week after week five (so they have enough data to begin picking accurately). Projections drop each Wednesday, here is this week's https://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2023/weekview.pl?week=Virginia_11

CalPreps picks VA at essentially the same rate as they are picking nationally thus far in 2023, a smidge below 84%.

calpreps.com Freeman Ratings

Anyone know how accurate the leaders in our weekly pick 'em are?

 

[Champ Cage]

Well, in my contest, we only pick the closest games of the week. We don't pick the obvious one-sided games and still people seem to have high percentages......but i'd have to research it for sure, but would say some are close to that. (cough cough....more research.....maybe the best this year Fairlawncat)

 

[1MoreHokie]

Well, in my contest, we only pick the closest games of the week. We don't pick the obvious one-sided games and still people seem to have high percentages......but i'd have to research it for sure, but would say some are close to that. (cough cough....more research.....maybe the best this year Fairlawncat)

The difference is people know the teams. They know rivalry games, injuries, and so forth that can affect outcomes. If I asked the same group to pick results of say, 4A Arizona schools, the percentages would plummet like a rock and most would simply default to taking the team with the better record.

Being able to develop (they've been doing this for awhile now iirc) an algorithm to pick the outcomes of ~6000-6500 games a week at an 83-85% clip is a highly impressive bit of mathematics.

 

[Champ Cage]

Says kettle to pot........I was just answering a question that was asked. Never said it wasn't impressive or we had an advantage(again just answering the question). Yes, I think it is very impressive mathematics, picking all 50 states I believe and being this accurate is very good.... but your argument is not with me.

 

[Champ Cage]

Also, Massey Ratings is pretty good too. But, they seem to have more weight on previous meetings instead of just the year at hand.

 

[SWDRules]

13

Lost a starter before the game , earlier in the week. He may or may not be back for playoffs.

Not hurt. Most likely won't be back. Next man up.

 

[7MileFord]

Not hurt. Most likely won't be back. Next man up.

I heard it was a MCL. If sprained he can make it back before the end of the season

 

[Gridiron1960]

Not hurt. Most likely won't be back. Next man up.

Let’s hope “next man up” does better this week than against Pulaski. Defense had several missteps.

 

[SWDRules]

I heard it was a MCL. If sprained he can make it back before the end of the season

It is not.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Projections are nice but these games are still about injuries, momentum, and who is fighting with their girlfriend. The accuracy is uncanny, but I would argue that For Defiance is in the mix in Region B but likely wouldn't show well in the algorithm. Either way the regular season is winding down so it's going to be real enough very soon.

 

[MarlburlMan]

We should do a playoff bracket like NCAA basketball. I would like to see how people would pick the entire playoff before the first game was played. When the field is set I may post the idea.

 

[Fairlawncat]

Projections are nice but these games are still about injuries, momentum, and who is fighting with their girlfriend. The accuracy is uncanny, but I would argue that For Defiance is in the mix in Region B but likely wouldn't show well in the algorithm. Either way the regular season is winding down so it's going to be real enough very soon.

Very True RedPrideNation. The computers in California can't account for who is injured, who is now healthy, etc. It can't account for personal issues with the team, weather that may effect a passing team more than a running team, etc. Still, pretty accurate, but I think a team like Poquoson and Graham who were both supposed to be very good (and still are both very good) but possible state title run good aren't the same with the injuries they have had, and in Poquoson's case, a kid or two moving away/transferring with the injuries. It may underrate a team like Riverheads who didn't have the big boy for a whole lot of games and quarters played, and same for Buckingham who was without lots of starters early in season.

 

[Champ Cage]

We should do a playoff bracket like NCAA basketball. I would like to see how people would pick the entire playoff before the first game was played. When the field is set I may post the idea.

This actually did exist for a couple years. Keith_Stone33 use to do one for 2A and 1A.
Also, I think Mike Salem may do one for every class on the 4A Forum....He does about every football contest over there.