Championship Trends

[CRF4Dan]

Here we are in February with Superbowl in our rear view mirrors... NFL is now over, college has been over and we are now looking towards the 2017 season rather than looking back at the 2016 season. We don't have a lot to talk about at this point in time other than recruiting so I started thinking to myself, is there anything that can give us a look into the future? I'm one of those guys that likes to look for trends in sports... I'm also a stat guy, it's just my thing. So I did some studying of how the champions fared the year before in an effort to determine who our 2017 champion will be... Here is what we learned.

8 previous Class 4 champions were repeat winners which would apply of course to Salem.

7 previous Class 4 champions made it no further than the second round a year before winning it all. That would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Charlottesville, Grafton, Heritage-Leesburg, Heritage-Newport News, Millbrook, Monacan, Patrick Henry-Ashland.

7 previous Class 4 champions made it no further than the first round a year before winning it all. That would apply to Courtland, Deep Creek, Denbigh, George Washington, King George, Kings Fork, Loudoun Valley, Louisa, Powhatan, Pulaski, Smithfield, Warhill

4 previous Class 4 champions did not make the playoffs a year before winning the championship. This would apply to Caroline, Carroll, Churchland, EC Glass, Fauquier, Great Bridge, Hanover, Huguenot, James Wood, Jefferson Forest, John Bassett, John Handley, Kettle Run, Liberty-Bealeton, Liberty Christian, Loudoun, Midlothian, Park View-Sterling, Riverside, Sherando and Woodrow Wilson.

2 previous Class 4 champions lost the state championship a year before winning it. This of course would apply to Dinwiddie.

1 previous champion lost in the state semifinal the year before winning it all. This would apply to Dominion and Lafayette.

1 previous champion made it no further than the third round the year before winning it all. This would apply to Eastern View, Lake Taylor, William Byrd and Woodgrove.

There have only been four previous champions who did not qualify for the playoffs the year before they won it all. The last to do so was Briar Woods in 2010.

There have been six multiple champions in Class 4 with Salem having the most wins with 8 state titles.

The six multiple champions have combined for 21 of the 31 Class 4 championships.

Of the 16 schools to win Class 4 titles, only 7 remain; Amherst, Dinwiddie, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Park View-Sterling, Powhatan and Salem

There have been 17 champions in the 2000's with just 9 schools taking them.

8 of the last 12 champions reached no less than the third round the year before winning it all. This would apply to Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Salem, William Byrd and Woodgrove.

7 of those 8 would reach the state championship game and this of course would apply to Dinwiddie and Salem.

14 of the last 19 Class 4 champions had at least 8 wins during the regular season a year before winning the state title. This would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Grafton, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Louisa, Millbrook, Monacan, Powhatan, Salem, Smithfield, William Byrd and Woodgrove.

8 of the last 9 Class 4 champions had a 27.7 rating or higher the year before they won the state title. This would apply to Amherst, Chancellor, Dinwiddie, Dominion, Eastern View, Heritage-Newport News, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Louisa, Millbrook, Monacan, Salem, William Byrd and Woodgrove

So what does this mean? It means that the trends tell us more than likely Salem will repeat or Dinwiddie will win in 2017... If either falter however, then your champion will likely be one of the following... Dominion, Eastern View, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, William Byrd or Woodgrove

 

[shauntclair]

Now this was cool shoes.

 

[mbonape1]

Interesting stuff! Any idea who has the most State championships regardless of classification? I would imagine maybe Hampton or Pheobus.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

Interesting stuff! Any idea who has the most State championships regardless of classification? I would imagine maybe Hampton or Pheobus.

Since the playoffs began in 1970, Hampton leads the way with twelve. Salem and Powell Valley (now closed) both have eight, and Phoebus has seven. Appalachia, which closed to merge with Powell Valley to form Union High, won six. I'm not certain, but I think those are the only schools with more than five.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Danny boy, I love that stuff. But man, we've got to find you a hobby or something. You have entirely too much spare time on your hands. Hell, it took me four days to get time just to read your post.

Just teasing, of course. What do you use as your data base when researching things like this.

 

[hamspear]

Who has lost the most state championship games ? Sherando 4?!?!

 

[CRF4Dan]

Danny boy, I love that stuff. But man, we've got to find you a hobby or something. You have entirely too much spare time on your hands. Hell, it took me four days to get time just to read your post.

Just teasing, of course. What do you use as your data base when researching things like this.

I have results for every game and every team within the Central Region from 1970 to now... It's a labor of love I have been compiling since circa 2001. Someday I might dive deeper than 1970 but the further you go back the harder it is to come by scores.

 

[CRF4Dan]

Who has lost the most state championship games ? Sherando 4?!?!

Amherst, Brookville, Essex, James Monroe, Lafayette, Martinsville, Richlands, Sherando and Strasburg have 4 losses

Southampton have 5 losses

Central Lunenburg, JI Burton, Madison and Stone Bridge have 6 losses

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I have results for every game and every team within the Central Region from 1970 to now... It's a labor of love I have been compiling since circa 2001. Someday I might dive deeper than 1970 but the further you go back the harder it is to come by scores.

I guess old high school yearbooks are a pretty good source for pre-1970 scores. But, unless you "know" an alumni from every old school, that would be an uphill battle. I would think that most of the high school libraries kept copies of their yearbooks? At least, I would hope so.

I'm just rambling and thinking out load here, but I assume most newspapers have archived their past editions. That too, would be a time consuming process, but I'm sure it's all in there.

I'm sure it would be frustrating trying to track down information about schools that have long since been closed, or merged. Especially the Black schools before desegregation.

Speaking of such, I've asked this on the forum a couple of times, but I received no response. There is an old school in Downtown Richmond that has been converted into apartments. "Booker T. Washington". I'm no spring chicken, but I don't recall ever hearing about a BT Wash. in Richmond. Does anyone?

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Amherst, Brookville, Essex, James Monroe, Lafayette, Martinsville, Richlands, Sherando and Strasburg have 4 losses

Southampton have 5 losses

Central Lunenburg, JI Burton, Madison and Stone Bridge have 6 losses

How about most without ever winning one?

 

[CRF4Dan]

I guess old high school yearbooks are a pretty good source for pre-1970 scores. But, unless you "know" an alumni from every old school, that would be an uphill battle. I would think that most of the high school libraries kept copies of their yearbooks? At least, I would hope so.

I'm just rambling and thinking out load here, but I assume most newspapers have archived their past editions. That too, would be a time consuming process, but I'm sure it's all in there.

I'm sure it would be frustrating trying to track down information about schools that have long since been closed, or merged. Especially the Black schools before desegregation.

Speaking of such, I've asked this on the forum a couple of times, but I received no response. There is an old school in Downtown Richmond that has been converted into apartments. "Booker T. Washington". I'm no spring chicken, but I don't recall ever hearing about a BT Wash. in Richmond. Does anyone?

In my research I've never come across a Booker T. Washington... are you sure it was a high school?

Many an evening or weekend spent in a library going through the Times-Dispatch archives... Several conversations with AD's, school librarians and team historians.

 

[CRF4Dan]

How about most without ever winning one?

Floyd and Potomac 3 trips without a win
Sherando and Strasburg 4 trips without a win

 

[mike salem]

Amherst, Brookville, Essex, James Monroe, Lafayette, Martinsville, Richlands, Sherando and Strasburg have 4 losses

Southampton have 5 losses

Central Lunenburg, JI Burton, Madison and Stone Bridge have 6 losses

What's amazing about Stone Bridge is, they've only been open 17 years with a 184-40 record (11-2 avg) They've won at least 10 games in 14 of those seasons. They've made 7 championship game appearances with a title in 2007. 4 of their 6 losses in championship game appearances were by 1 possession. A few of these Loudoun County schools have had similar early success-Tuscarora & Briar Woods come to mind. Stone Bridge has as good of a record in the VHSL-Reference era as anyone in the state.

 

[CRF4Dan]

What's amazing about Stone Bridge is, they've only been open 17 years with a 184-40 record (11-2 avg) They've won at least 10 games in 14 of those seasons. They've made 7 championship game appearances with a title in 2007. 4 of their 6 losses in championship game appearances were by 1 possession. A few of these Loudoun County schools have had similar early success-Tuscarora & Briar Woods come to mind. Stone Bridge has as good of a record in the VHSL-Reference era as anyone in the state.

Helps when you have a coach of Mickey Thompson's caliber. Not to take anything from the players that have come through but I don't know that they would have reached the heights they have in their first 17 years without him.

 

[shauntclair]

All schools have pretty equal talent pools. Clearly, there are some instances where special individuals emerge. But it seems there is no place like HS sports where the Coach can make such a discernible difference in overall team performance.

GL to all teams this year

 

[DinwiddieProud]

In my research I've never come across a Booker T. Washington... are you sure it was a high school?

Many an evening or weekend spent in a library going through the Times-Dispatch archives... Several conversations with AD's, school librarians and team historians.

Not sure if it was a HS. Was just assuming. Could have been something other. I'll call the management company tomorrow, they should know something.

 

[CRF4Dan]

Not sure if it was a HS. Was just assuming. Could have been something other. I'll call the management company tomorrow, they should know something.

Here's your answer...

http://web.richmond.k12.va.us/AboutRPS/RPSHistory/OW/Washington.aspx

 

[shauntclair]

It IS nice to review a school's history. But it's just like the NFL or the NCAA. What have you done for me lately?

The past means NOTHING. The Jets mean nothing. The Dolphins mean nothing. UCLA means nothing. The Celtics mean nothing. Who are you today? Teams must focus there to be successful. What happened 20 years ago may be historically interesting but 100% inapplicable to tomorrow's game. If tradition won games, Notre Dame would be playing for the FBS Championship every year.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Thanks. That's a neat history. That building is a fortress. High ceilings, think walls, wide hallways, and some of the largest hinged doors I've ever laid my eyes on.

I love old school buildings. You can sense the spirts of the kids that once walked the hallways. It doesn't take much imagination to hear the characteristic noise of kids, just being kids. The smell of the rolls that every cafeteria baked back in the old days. The clanging of the old steel bells, and the sudden rising crescendo of kids pouring from the classrooms when those bells rang.

Those of you that can still go back to visit your old school buildings are lucky. Take advantage of any opportunity you get to just ride by and look fondly at where you grew up. My neighborhood elementary school was long ago bulldozed, and replaced with cheap houses. How I would love to be able to walk those halls just one more time.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

BTW, really nice job with the story on Coach Salmon, Danny.

 

[CRF4Dan]

BTW, really nice job with the story on Coach Salmon, Danny.

More to come, I'd like to do more articles catching up with coaches from the regions past.

 

[Shruikan]

Who has lost the most state championship games ? Sherando 4?!?!

 

[hamspear]

Shruikan , 2018 is going to be the next team to have a shot, if they don't stop running through walls for each other before then. Keep the faith!