Great thread! My thoughts/essay:
This should be an epic battle, and many of us have waited many years for this matchup. They haven't played each other since Ponax first opened. Louisa is now totally on the level to not only compete with the Panthers, but win this game and open some eyes doing it. Something that hasn't been mentioned is that Louisa's best athlete, ODU-commit senior Noah Robinson, hasn't played this season yet, due to an off-season injury. He should return for the district games. I'm sorry to see that Ponax won't be at full strength, but neither team will be. It's still going to be epic! Both teams are loaded.
I will just say it straight up, Ponax QB Luke Morley is one fast white boy! His height is listed all over the place on here, but he looks a good 6' 3" or 6' 4" to me. Regardless, he's big and fast! Louisa must sell out, hit him every play, and contain him at all costs, because he can kill you and take it to the house on literally any play. His 70 yard and 80 yard TD runs against Dinwiddie were not flukes, he can do that to any defense.
Massaponax's O line is very aggressive at the point of attack, as always. They just get after you. And I'll repeat what's been said, they run the triple option at the college level. Louisa has faced triple the last few years, against Charlottesville, whom's head coach is a former defensive coordinator from Ponax, and against Chancellor last year, but those games were just practice runs for what they'll face tomorrow. Ponax's triple is twice as strong, twice as fast, twice as potent.
The Panther defense might have given up points and yardage, but they were against two good teams. Ponax has a nice LB who isn't afraid to smack you, and Louisa must keep hats on him to be successful. I'm not sure if he plays both ways and is one of the injured players, but he is much needed on defense. The D line is aggressive and underrated. As has been stated, the "weakness" is their pass defense, but it's serviceable. This leads me to...
Louisa freshman QB Landon Wilson, at 6' 1" 190 lbs, will have to show his mettle early and often. Against Courtland and Chancellor, he played completely perfect games and looked far from a freshman, but he has benefited from the potent Lion running game and "safe" play calls for him. If Ponax stops the run, how will he do? This could be the game where he either shines and becomes a household name, or "plays like a freshman", which there is nothing wrong with! He's the younger brother of Luke Wilson, who transferred from Louisa to FUMA and broke passing records there.
Everyone knows about the Lion running game by now, but not everyone is familiar with junior RB Robbie Morgan. That kid is the TRUTH! He just refuses to go down. Remember his name! He could be the X factor today and in the playoffs. Over two games, he's had 11 carries for 137 yards and 4 TDs, while viciously stiff arming and dragging players. This thread has talked about Ponax's triple option, and deservingly so, but has failed to point out that Ponax also has to worry about an extremely talented Lion offense. This will be the best overall backfield Ponax has played against in many years. Jarett Hunter, Robbie Morgan, Kalup Shelton, Alex Washington, Landon Wilson, Adrain 'Night Train' Williams, all can either grind you up for 5 yards a pop or break one to the house. Shelton is like a bigger Zion Sturdivant, an extremely fast bowling ball who won't go down on the first hit.
The most important determinants of this game will be defense, special teams, and in-game coaching. The Lion defense is very talented at every level, even without Robinson at safety. The D line is very aggressive and quick, with senior tackle Night Train Williams, senior end Derrick Barbour, and freshman end Qwenton Spellman, who is a manchild, leading the way. They will each pose serious problems for the triple option, but need to stay disciplined. Departed 5 star LB Brandon Smith (who has already laid some wood for Penn State and will see more time against Pitt this weekend!) is of course greatly missed and irreplaceable, but so far, seniors Austin Sims, Aaron Aponte, and company have more than stepped up. Aponte literally picked up and suplexed a poor Chancellor runner. This Lion defense as a whole has been downright nasty, so I give them the edge.
The Lions have sophomore kicker, Miguel Castells, a foreign exchange student from Spain, who hit a 47 yard FG against Courtland and can kick it in the endzone. Kick returners Jarett and Buck Hunter, and Robbie Morgan can each break one to the house, so I give the special teams edge to the Lions.
I went to the 2016 Ponax/Stone Bridge playoff game (and the Stone Bridge/Highland Springs title game the following week), and thought Ponax was the better overall team than SB, and controlled the game, but suffered from questionable coaching decisions in the final minutes. I feel this has been their Achilles heel in the biggest games, especially against SB. Ponax has had a bunch of title worthy teams over the years, but in-game decisions in clutch moments has hurt them. However, I still give the in-game coaching advantage to Ponax, because they're more experienced, and against tougher schedules. Will it matter tonight? Stay tuned, because it could be the deciding factor of the game, but hopefully the kids decide!
If you're within a 50 mile radius, don't miss this treat of a game! 540/Fredericksburg area football is BACK, and will be on full display again in The Jungle! After last year's Louisa/EV game and now Louisa/Ponax, with the Battlefield District back on the rise, it's a great time to be a high school football fan in the Fredericksburg area.