Odds & Trends Reveal 2018 Champion?

Discussion in 'Class 4A (Fall)' started by CRF4Dan, Mar 2, 2018.

  1. CRF4Dan

    CRF4Dan Richmond Region Football Writer
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    Dec 17, 2012
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    Mechanicsville, VA
    As customary each year... I look to the past to forecast the future... Each year I build on the data...
    I look at three things... what the champion the year before did in the playoffs... how many wins that team had the year before and finally... where they finished ratings wise the year before in their class/division...

    So if we look at the playoffs alone... We can deduce that Salem or the field will basically win it all.

    8 of the last 13 champions won the state title the year before.
    9 champions won a state title the year before as well.
    That said, 58% of champions in Class/Division 4 either only reached the first or second round of the playoffs or did not even make the playoffs.

    Now if we look at wins...
    84% of champions won 7 or more games the year before winning it all but 16 of the last 19 won 8 or more games the year before.
    Trimming this list to four is the fact that 10 times the champion wnet undefeated the year before.

    So by that logic the champion would be either Dinwiddie, Eastern View, Louisa or Monacan.

    Finally we have ratings...
    73% of champions finished in the top six the year before winning it all and 5 of the last 7 champions finished in the top 4.

    To take it a step further... 5 times the champion finished 4th in ratings the year before so the only team that meets these three items would be Louisa...

    So by all this data it would look as though Louisa or Salem one will be winning it all which is not a stretch considering both played in the final in 2017.

    Now if there is a darkhorse to be found it would be Dinwiddie or Monacan who meet 5 of the 9 benchmarks.
  2. ClarkeFan83

    ClarkeFan83 VaPreps Honorable Mention
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    Oct 6, 2015
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    Berryville, VA
    Did you hear about the constipated mathematician? He worked it out with a pencil!
    CRF4Dan and DinwiddieProud like this.
  3. freeatlast2013

    freeatlast2013 VaPreps Honorable Mention
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    Feb 23, 2013
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    Salem is solid every year. Will they win it every year? No. They have a lot to replace this year.We will see.
    Here is some example of consistency.
    89 12-1
    90 11-2
    91 13-1
    92 12-1 48-5 over four year contender every year

    96 12-2
    97 8-4
    98 14-0
    99 14-0 48-6 3 state titles and add in one in 00 at 11-3 for 4 in five years

    04 13-1
    05 14-0
    06 11-1
    07 12-1 50-3 2 state titles and lost to eventual state champion Amherst in close games in other 2 years

    14 14-1
    15 14-0
    16 13-1
    17 13-2 54-4 3 state titles and one runnerup
    CRF4Dan and salemfan32 like this.

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