Region 4C Playoff Matches

[Shruikan]

Woodgrove & Sherando have bye weeks. Things turned out to be quite boring in comparison to what they could've been. I'd have liked to see at least one cross-district match before the finals, which has to be a Dulles team versus a Northwestern team.

#5 Riverside (8-2) at #4 Loudoun County (8-1)
The Raiders won the regular season matchup 28-0. Both teams have had their close games, with Riverside narrowly defeating Heritage, Loudoun Valley, and Culpeper County, and Loudoun County squeaking out a win against Heritage.

I wouldn't say either team has a win that you can point to and say "wow, these guys are for real." Loudoun County beat Millbrook 49-28 at the beginning of the season, but Millbrook was without their star player Savon Smith and still had Gavin Evosirch playing QB (he's a solid QB, but gives their offense is better when he's able to play different positions). Riverside has a win against 5A Potomac Falls, but the Panthers finished the season at 5-5 with one of those being a forfeit win.

I'm not seeing a whole lot that will convince me that Riverside has improved enough to hang with the Raiders. I think Loudoun County puts up a two touchdown lead early and then extends it later in the game.

The winner gets a rematch with Woodgrove. The Wolverines defeated the Raiders 27-6 and the Rams 43-7.

Prediction
Loudoun County 35, Riverside 14

#6 Millbrook (7-3) at #3 Kettle Run (9-1)
Kettle Run won the regular season contest 44-22. Unlike the other round 1 game, I think this one has the potential to be a lot different than the first meeting between these two teams. Savon Smith did play in the first game, but he didn't look at 100% to me (though it also could've been due to the rain), and Evosirch was still at QB for much of the game.

I think Kettle Run is the better team, but if I were a Cougar fan I'd probably rather see Loudoun County or Riverside instead of the Pioneers for a second time. They've come a long way since nearly losing to the lowly Jefferson Cougars in week 1. Savon Smith is a superstar and if he has a superstar performance next Friday night, it'll be hard to stop the Pioneers.

I'm very tempted to go with the upset here, but I've got to think that the Cougar coaching staff has seen the Sherando-Millbrook game and learned a few new ways of countering Millbrook's offense.

The winner gets a rematch with Sherando. The Warriors defeated Kettle Run 27-14 and Millbrook 41-14.

Prediction
Kettle Run 35, Millbrook 30

 

[Reason is Lost]

I would tend to agree with your assessment, but after Millbrook's loss to Sherando, I would not be hopeful that they could pull this out. They had 2 key injuries to #18 and #73. I don't know the status of these young men, but I know Evosirch (#18) was a key cog in their offense and had to leave the game. I do not know bad his injury was, but when he didn't return, there was a drop off in the secondary and had to have an impact on the offense as well. #73 went down early with an apparent knee injury, but once again, I don't know how bad he was hurt. Regardless, he did not return and he was clearly one of their best OL and DL. When the playoffs roll around and a team is missing 2 starters, it usually doesn't bode well.

 

[Smallfry2015]

Kettle Run has a solid Defense , in the playoffs better defensive teams succeed in my opinion.
“ if we score we may win, if they don’t score we will win”.
Millbrook is a solid team especially with Savon, but if Sherando plays the right defense at the beginning of the game, they might have had a shutout.”
I see Kettle Run winning this game, it will be close like @Shruikan says.
Shruikan score seems about right .

 

[Tom Potter]

Speaking of injuries; I think Riverside will give County a tough game next Friday night. Riverside had a bye last week and County has had three straight weeks of tough District games were some key players got hurt. I am not sure about last nights Heritage game with regard to injuries but County has played in miserable weather the last two weeks.

It is tough to beat the same team twice in one season. Woodgrove found this out the hard way two years ago in the playoffs vs. Dominion.

 

[20165 FBall]

I can't see County losing this game with everything on the line. Will be a little closer than their first game, but they have bigger plans than this. 28 - 14 LoCo.

 

[WarrentonCougar21]

I wish there was some cross competition between the divisions in 4c. The matchups fell into more of the regular season repeat matchups. I think It’s a little better and more fun to play an unknown team in the playoffs. Good luck to all the first round teams.

 

[Shruikan]

I wish there was some cross competition between the divisions in 4c. The matchups fell into more of the regular season repeat matchups. I think It’s a little better and more fun to play an unknown team in the playoffs. Good luck to all the first round teams.

Unfortunately even if the playoffs were at 8 this year, the only non-district game would've been Handley at Woodgrove.

 

[BigBWincCity]

I wish there was some cross competition between the divisions in 4c. The matchups fell into more of the regular season repeat matchups. I think It’s a little better and more fun to play an unknown team in the playoffs. Good luck to all the first round teams.

Agreed 100%

 

[Reason is Lost]

I went through the Week #11 Pick'em and not a single person chose Millbrook or Riverside. Were the first game results the tipping point? I think that certainly has an impact but it cant be that easy can it? I don't take much stock in the percentage of playing a team twice. Too many variables to consider! I certainly think injuries are a factor, but so is the weather, execution, and overcoming big plays or questionable/key penalties.

 

[Smallfry2015]

Millbrook brings the Defense they can win. Not many think they can bring it like KR. That’s my thought on your statement.

 

[silky45]

I will be a closer game than what ppl think. Smith #23 Heathy, The JackSon kid #1 is healthy as well. Speed kills! Kettle Run has a good team. It will be a good game.

 

[WarrentonCougar21]

I will be a closer game than what ppl think. Smith #23 Heathy, The JackSon kid #1 is healthy as well. Speed kills! Kettle Run has a good team. It will be a good game.

I would absolutely agree with you that speed is a huge factor. This week Speed on the outside sweep or off tackle with Smith might be off the table for Millbrook since there is a 100% chance of rain. It’s going to be a soggy and slippery field at Cougar Stadium. It could get real ugly out on the field with all the rain.