What about the new blood in 4A West?

[SpartanOfYore]

I haven't seen (or may have missed) any discussion of the schools that will be new to 4A West this fall. Freedom (South Riding) drops down from 5A North, while Loudoun Valley, Kettle Run, and John Champe move up from 3A East. There will also be a new school in Rock Ridge of Ashburn.

Aside from seeing these schools' scores in the weekly results, my knowledge of them consists of the records and results found on VHSL-Reference. Based on that, my guess is that Freedom isn't going to challenge for a playoff spot in 4A West this fall. Loudoun Valley seems to be the strongest of the new kids, and might actually be able to be in the running for one of the top eight slots. Kettle Run and John Champe appear to be capable of at least making the playoffs, probably somewhere in seeds 10 through 16.

Rock Ridge might be the most interesting. They will be a first-year team, so some struggles are likely. On the other hand, having split off from Briar Woods, one would have to think there's some potential there.

I'd be interested in the opinions of those that are familiar with these teams' coaches and personnel. How do you see the new kids on the block faring in 4A West this fall?

 

[GilliamRatings]

I think if you look at the new blood, most of it is moving up from 3A, so it will be interesting to see how the move up effects the teams:

Quick thoughts: Kettle Run should be a factor. They've put up four straight winning seasons and seem like they should sport the kind of record which will allow them to host a playoff game.

LOudoun Valley seems to be in an up cycle and I think they'll be right there with Kettle Run. I look for them to be hosting a playoff game, too.

William Byrd had that great campaign in 2013, but it seems to be an aberration if you look at their records the last few seasons. While I think they can get a playoff spot, that 3 win season last year makes me hesitant to bet on it.

JOhn Champe is following a pretty familiar pattern for new schools. Get a full senior class, get some school tradition and then start winning. The 8 wins last year definitely tell me they can be a contender this year.

Freedom is dropping from 5A, but until they put up a winning record one year, they're not going to be talked about.

Riverside won't be ready for primetime this season.

 

[SpartanOfYore]

Thanks for your response. I can't believe I forgot about Byrd! I guess I'd better get used to thinking of them as 4A. Jeff Highfill always does a good job, and it seems like he's been at Byrd since the Eisenhower administration. They're always tough and scrappy. Their pattern, in general, over the years has been one of having to take two to four years to rebuild after a real good year, like the 2013 season you mentioned.

The Terriers were pretty young last year, IIRC, so I think they'll still be in rebuilding mode. When Highfill has a tough running qb, one solid running back, and a core of unremarkable but dependable seniors is when the Terriers are at their most feisty. This might not be that year, but WB should be improved enough to potentially flip any or all of the Botetourt, Hidden Valley and Cave Spring losses into wins. The Terriers could finish with five or six victories, which should have them in the mix for one of the last playoff spots.

 

[Rev_Real]

Give Rock Ridge a year or 2, Tony Tallent is a hell of a coach and will have those boys winning sooner then later, bet on that

 

[m.ur]

Agree with most on this assessment. Riverside has a good offensive coach in place and draws from Stone Bridge and Tusky, they will be decent quickly, but not this year.

Rock Ridge same story, good coach, decent pool of kids, however demographic is different then Briar Woods so I do not expect same type of success. But they will be decent quickly.

Champ and Valley good strong D3 teams, will continue trend up.

No info on Kettle Run

Freedom drops down and avoids Briar, Broad Run, Tusky, but has to win a few games to be discussed.

What I am interested in seeing is how much does the change of divisions effect teams.

Will Champ and Valley now struggle because they are now playing similar sized schools? (larger then they are used to)

Will Freedom have some success because they are also playing similar sized schools (in their case now smaller schools then they are used to)

Guess we will find out