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Who will break out to the Final 4 and when?

mike salem

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Nov 2, 2009
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In 4 years there have only been 4 representatives in 4A. (Dinwiddie, Lake Taylor, Salem, and Sherando)
So who will be the team to crash the party?

From the East/Central and when?

From the West/North and when?
 
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East/Central:
Lake Taylor 50-6 (2 app)
Dinwiddie 46-8 (2 app)

Potential candidates:

Lafayette 51-4
Eastern View 41-8
Courtland 36-14
Heritage NN 36-15
Monacan 34-14
King's Fork 29-20
Powhatan 27-16
Grafton 25-19
Hanover 25-21
Louisa 24-19
King George 23-20
Smithfield 23-20
Chancellor 20-22
Denbigh 18-26


West/North:
Salem 52-5 (3 app)
Sherando 37-11 (1 app)

Potential candidates:

GW Danville 39-9
Woodgrove 39-11
Loudoun Valley 34-14
Jefferson For. 30-16
Liberty Beal 29-18
Dominion 28-18
John Champe 28-17
William Byrd 28-16
Blacksburg 26-21
Pulaski 25-19
Millbrook 23-21
Amherst 22-23
Heritage Le 20-23
Fauquier 19-23
Charlottesville 18-26

*Record last 4 years, and may not be strictly from 4A.
 
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I battled back between Woodgrove and Danville out west but I'll say GW Danville has a nice shot to get there within the next 3 years. It's gonna be real hard to knock off Salem and Sherando to get there but GW will have the talent and preparation (with the tougher schedule) to get them over the hump rather than in years past.. From the East, I wouldn't be surprised to see Courtland get there real soon especially with the young pups they had this year getting faster and stronger.
 
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Potential candidates

East/Central:

Lafayette 51-4
Eastern View 41-8
Courtland 36-14
Heritage NN 36-15
Monacan 34-14
King's Fork 29-20
Powhatan 27-16
Grafton 25-19
Hanover 25-21
Louisa 24-19
King George 23-20
Smithfield 23-20
Chancellor 20-22
Denbigh 18-26




West/North:

GW Danville 39-9
Woodgrove 39-11
Loudoun Valley 34-14
Jefferson For. 30-16
Liberty Beal 29-18
Dominion 28-18
John Champe 28-17
William Byrd 28-16
Blacksburg 26-21
Pulaski 25-19
Millbrook 23-21
Amherst 22-23
Heritage Le 20-23
Fauquier 19-23
Charlottesville 18-26

*Record last 4 years, and may not be strictly from 4A.

In what are now Regions C and D, aside from Salem, no one has been more consistent over the last four years than Woodgrove. They seem to have established themselves as a program that will always be in the mix, regardless of player turnover. They've also experienced a little heartbreak, which seems to be a requisite for reaching the last step. So, I'll go with the Wolverines first, followed by Jefferson Forest, and C'ville.

From A and B, I would guess Lafayette, which like Woodgrove is always in contention in the region; Monacan, which simply must one day atone for the epic brain fart of three years ago; or Courtland, which - after an absence of nearly thirty years - is probably long overdue for a return to the state's biggest stage.
 
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Monacan or Kings Fork (also Smithfield or Hanover)
Charlottesville or Woodgrove (also Amherst or Jefferson Forest)
 
Lafayette is a great trivia question answer to "who has the best winning percentage of all current 4A teams over the past 4 years".

Methinks their lack of being tested in the regular season (0 losses since 2012 but one single opponent finished with 10+ wins and it was a 2A team) is what's costing them in the POs.
 
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Lafayette is a great trivia question answer to "who has the best winning percentage of all current 4A teams over the past 4 years".

Methinks their lack of being tested in the regular season (0 losses since 2012 but one single opponent finished with 10+ wins and it was a 2A team) is what's costing them in the POs.
Not a whole lot they can do about it either. They are in a 10 school district that is historically been one of the weakest in the state. A 10 member district only permits them one OOD opponent. That makes it hard to stiffen up their slate of games. Their coach no longer has the burden of the AD job, and they are not far from beating up on some top teams, so yeah, we shouldn't sleep on them.

One other thing. You better believe that all of these "why they won't win it all" words are communicated to the players as motivation on a timely basis. Like almost all competitors, telling them they can't do something is all of the motivation they need.
 
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Not a whole lot they can do about it either. They are in a 10 school district that is historically been one of the weakest in the state. A 10 member district only permits them one OOD opponent. That makes it hard to stiffen up their slate of games. Their coach no longer has the burden of the AD job, and they are not far from beating up on some top teams, so yeah, we shouldn't sleep on them.

One other thing. You better believe that all of these "why they won't win it all" words are communicated to the players as motivation on a timely basis. Like almost all competitors, telling them they can't do something is all of the motivation they need.
This will be an interesting year and test at Lafayette. Qb returns as some top offensive lineman and defensive players BUT this is the first year I can remember in a long time where there are no returnee starters in the skill positions of RB and TE/WR. Some subs played some and looked good but little real varsity experience. This will the year the HC Andy Linn will really earn his salary and maybe lose the rest of his hair!
 
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This will be an interesting year and test at Lafayette. Qb returns as some top offensive lineman and defensive players BUT this is the first year I can remember in a long time where there are no returnee starters in the skill positions of RB and TE/WR. Some subs played some and looked good but little real varsity experience. This will the year the HC Andy Linn will really earn his salary and maybe lose the rest of his hair!
It's good to hear from you old friend. I hope everyone is doing well?

I think Coach Lind may, in fact , lose a little more hair with the young team. That is somewhat offset by not having the responsibilities of the AD duties. Incidently, I admire him for his decisions.

I see your schedule is not posted yet, but I do know you encounter Smithfield early in the season. That's going to be a tough game for all the new starters. But hey, just look at Coach Linn's record. This ain't his first rodeo!
 
It's good to hear from you old friend. I hope everyone is doing well?

I think Coach Lind may, in fact , lose a little more hair with the young team. That is somewhat offset by not having the responsibilities of the AD duties. Incidently, I admire him for his decisions.

I see your schedule is not posted yet, but I do know you encounter Smithfield early in the season. That's going to be a tough game for all the new starters. But hey, just look at Coach Linn's record. This ain't his first rodeo!
Hello DP/ I am doing fine here, now going into my 2nd year of retirement. Yep, that Smithfield game is way too early in the season! Toughest game on our schedule but at Williamsburg this year on artificial turf, not at Smithfield and their usual spongy grass! But Smithfield has the best QB in the Bay Rivers. 2 months, more or less to go. Lafayette has picked their Captains and have been hitting the weights since December.
 
Glad to hear retirement is going well. I've still got a few more to go.

From what little I've found, I think Smithfield may be your second game?

gwb16 usually has good insight into the Packers. Maybe he will share with us?

What about Jamestown this year? They won 3 of their last five last season. Is this telling us that they are on the upswing?

And how about Poquosen? Any idea about them this coming season?
 
I'd go with 1) Monacan 2) Lafayette 3) Heritage NN from A or B.

I'd go with 1) Woodgrove 2) Jefferson Forest 3) GW Danville from C or D.

I don't see it happening this year. If Woodgrove ever gets to host in the Semifinals I'd give them the edge. They are on the cusp of making it to the finals. (If they are going to win C4 they better hurry because LoCo is growing so fast they could be C5 in the next 2 or 4 years)
 
Will it happen this year? Loss of QB at Dinwiddie and Salem. Both teams will still be good but how good? A lot of questions to be answered. Talk of injuries and other issues at Salem..Salem last 3 years have been 14-1, 14-0 and 13-1 with two rings. The schedule last year was harder than the perception as Blacksburg and Byrd were two of the better teams around along with Amherst.
 
Glad to hear retirement is going well. I've still got a few more to go.

From what little I've found, I think Smithfield may be your second game?

gwb16 usually has good insight into the Packers. Maybe he will share with us?

What about Jamestown this year? They won 3 of their last five last season. Is this telling us that they are on the upswing?

And how about Poquosen? Any idea about them this coming season?
Yep, Smithfield is the 2nd game. Huguenot is no longer our first. One of the coaches said Booker T Washington in Norfolk is our first game now but the schedule on maxpreps dies not agree with this. Jamestown should be improved but how much is a big question. Poquoson is pretty loaded this year and should be a force with their step down in class. I know Smithfield graduated their Div 1 big WR , Pierce, their big RB and some key lineman but Gwb16 should give some real insight. But their returnee starting Qb can really throw, scramble with best and run. He will test your defense in game 1, I believe.
 
I think we may see an emergence of the tidewater area outside of Laf and LT. I think we are about 2yrs away from it being more competitive in 4A 757. I think Kings Fork might be in play this year.

804 wins 3-4 state titles across classifications in 2017.

A new challenger in the west emerges in 4a.

2019- hugeunot makes 4A playoffs and makes run.

2019- midlothian goes to 5A
 
I think we may see an emergence of the tidewater area outside of Laf and LT. I think we are about 2yrs away from it being more competitive in 4A 757. I think Kings Fork might be in play this year.

804 wins 3-4 state titles across classifications in 2017.

A new challenger in the west emerges in 4a.

2019- hugeunot makes 4A playoffs and makes run.

2019- midlothian goes to 5A
Why so high on Hugey in 2019? I sure hope you are right on them!
 
Why so high on Hugey in 2019? I sure hope you are right on them!

Same thing as before. New school and new facilities, if you live south of the james in richmond and are solid, where do you go GW? I think you'll see them start landing at Hug which I am all for. We need a good city program at atleast one school. There are athletes there, just need to get behind the program.
 
Same thing as before. New school and new facilities, if you live south of the james in richmond and are solid, where do you go GW? I think you'll see them start landing at Hug which I am all for. We need a good city program at atleast one school. There are athletes there, just need to get behind the program.
I agree 100%! How do you see the programs on the Northside doing? I think JM and Tee Jay will become competitive over time. Armstrong, JM, and GW all look like they are going to contend for the basketball championship every year.
 
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Henrico is the closest I see to a city school having sucess in terms of proximity but they are not actually a city schools. Hug at one time was a power. The other schools on the northside don't have the football tradition, proxie / resources / facilities.

And yeah it is the exact opposite for Bball obviously. Those schools wont just compete but dominate other 3a programs
 
Interesting topic and mbonope1 based on a tad of research Kings Fork may be a major player this season. They are always in the mix and this may just be their year. Lafayette, is more of a confusing or tougher discussion. As DP stated they cannot really upgrade their schedule, but as a fan its very frustrating to see them waltz into the playoffs each year (No fault of their own) undefeated and having played very few sound teams. If you omit the Rams playoff opponents they had the weakest regular season schedule of anyone in 4a. Don't get me wrong, I am not calling the Rams cupcakes. Lafayette was darn good last year and played my Generals nose to nose, but I sure wish their road was a bit tougher.

I look for Monacan and Louisa to be tough outs period. Both teams show their might in the regular season and are just waiting for that break through moment. The past three years Monacan has been knocked out by LT once and Dinwiddie twice. Louisa has been beaten by Hanover and Monacan the past two years in the first round. Its tough to go on the road and win if you are not a top four team in the Region. Not sold on Courtland. Yes, they were young, but I found them to be quite slow afoot with very few threats to stretch teams. Powhatan is also a dark horse for me. Just not sure the ground and pound game will get them over the top. Eastern View? I have no clue, but I did hear they have a new qb. Don't see Hanover making a ton of strides this season as they lost a ton of sound players in the past two years. Patrick Henry Ashland could be a huge surprise. Yes, they have a new coach, but hey have a some very good skill players and their District competition (2 4a's, 1 3a and the rest are very good 5a programs) will prepare them for the playoff's.

DSH you can say all you want about Region D, but Region B will be brutal as well. In fact, all of the Regions have at least four super tough outs. Here is my top four in each region with a possible. No sound basis for anything here and no certain order. Just a hunch lol.

Region A: Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Kings Fork, Smithfield, (Grafton)
Region B: EV, Monacan, Dinwiddie, Louisa, (Patrick Henry)
Region C: Woodgrove, Sherando, Dominion, Millbrook, (Liberty)
Region D: Salem, Charlottesville, William Byrd, Blacksburg, (GW Danville)
 
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Yessir. Region B is gonna be tough. Call me 804 bias, but I have no doubt that whoever comes out of Region B will win the state championship :D
Strong statement indeed, could never call that with confidence this time of year . Some years , there is a clear pick, but not this one. There will be a team to step up and get better as the year goes on, I would place my money on the usual suspects. Dinwiddie , Salem, LT , or Woodgrove of course. My team will need to show me something early for me to believe. I will know after two weeks if they got what it takes and gladly share my thoughts .
 
Hamspear, you need to quit sandbagging. You know darn good and well Sherando is going to score a ton of points. I have no clue about your receivers, but your qb throws one of the tightest spirals I have seen. Puts the ball right on the money.

The defensive line could be your achilles heal, but I look for Sherando to spread the field more and make teams out score them.

I honestly believe Dinwiddie will have to work things out quickly or find themselves with a midpack seed in the playoffs. One loss kills you and two will send you on the road.
 
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No sandbagging here brother , I don't care how many points you can score , somebody will always beat you without a defense, doubt Sherando isn't tested until I believe week 8 with a Martinsburg , possibly the best team they will see all year. They blow every team out before then , if they don't ? Then they got bigger problems then I even knew haha
 
No sandbagging here brother , I don't care how many points you can score , somebody will always beat you without a defense, doubt Sherando isn't tested until I believe week 8 with a Martinsburg , possibly the best team they will see all year. They blow every team out before then , if they don't ? Then they got bigger problems then I even knew haha
Thats the confidence have come to know. 9-1 worst case scenario?
 
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Liberty is always huge and sound, but your speed and passing attack will have them sucking wind by half time. I dont know too much about Millbrook, but with their athletes they could be a tough matchup.

An upset win against Martinsburg could spring board this team into a state contender. You have your finger on the pulse of the team, but I truly expect your coach to go a different direction scheme wise. You have the athletes to spread it out why not do it?
 
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I agree the athletes are there, but proven in the past at Sherando the offense is very diverse with multiple formations, it can be difficult for young players to learn at times and I see this year as almost getting somewhere year. When I measure teams like this one with the two teams in the modern era 2007, 2013. And I ask myself who would win, it's not even close yet. But we will see. I tend to lean towards the smash mouth style of play and think it last longer in the playoffs. No matter what, you better have a defense come November , regular season doesn't mean anything except home field.
 
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Interesting topic and mbonope1 based on a tad of research Kings Fork may be a major player this season. They are always in the mix and this may just be their year. Lafayette, is more of a confusing or tougher discussion. As DP stated they cannot really upgrade their schedule, but as a fan its very frustrating to see them waltz into the playoffs each year (No fault of their own) undefeated and having played very few sound teams. If you omit the Rams playoff opponents they had the weakest regular season schedule of anyone in 4a. Don't get me wrong, I am not calling the Rams cupcakes. Lafayette was darn good last year and played my Generals nose to nose, but I sure wish their road was a bit tougher.

I look for Monacan and Louisa to be tough outs period. Both teams show their might in the regular season and are just waiting for that break through moment. The past three years Monacan has been knocked out by LT once and Dinwiddie twice. Louisa has been beaten by Hanover and Monacan the past two years in the first round. Its tough to go on the road and win if you are not a top four team in the Region. Not sold on Courtland. Yes, they were young, but I found them to be quite slow afoot with very few threats to stretch teams. Powhatan is also a dark horse for me. Just not sure the ground and pound game will get them over the top. Eastern View? I have no clue, but I did hear they have a new qb. Don't see Hanover making a ton of strides this season as they lost a ton of sound players in the past two years. Patrick Henry Ashland could be a huge surprise. Yes, they have a new coach, but hey have a some very good skill players and their District competition (2 4a's, 1 3a and the rest are very good 5a programs) will prepare them for the playoff's.

DSH you can say all you want about Region D, but Region B will be brutal as well. In fact, all of the Regions have at least four super tough outs. Here is my top four in each region with a possible. No sound basis for anything here and no certain order. Just a hunch lol.

Region A: Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Kings Fork, Smithfield, (Grafton)
Region B: EV, Monacan, Dinwiddie, Louisa, (Patrick Henry)
Region C: Woodgrove, Sherando, Dominion, Millbrook, (Liberty)
Region D: Salem, Charlottesville, William Byrd, Blacksburg, (GW Danville)
Great list.. Your regions are spot on.. Me... I'd have this same list, however, I think a 8-2/7-3 JF or Amherst team is better than a 9-1 WB or Blacksburg team. That Seminole schedule will make a man out of you! I'd probably place both teams ahead of Blacksburg and Byrd.
 
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Great list.. Your regions are spot on.. Me... I'd have this same list, however, I think a 8-2/7-3 JF or Amherst team is better than a 9-1 WB or Blacksburg team. That Seminole schedule will make a man out of you! I'd probably place both teams ahead of Blacksburg and Byrd.
I am not sold on JF. Great coach, but they are probably a year away. Have mixed emotions about Amherst. If they are healthy and can stay that way I am buying. Defense will be the key. Until someone stops Basham WB will remain a contender in my eyes. Realize they lost a lot, but he is a game changer. I get your point regarding Blacksburg, They have a tough schedule, but if they can survive with a decent seed (top four) they have a chance to be in the mix.

How good is GW really going to be. I know they are maturing.
 
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I am not sold on JF. Great coach, but they are probably a year away. Have mixed emotions about Amherst. If they are healthy and can stay that way I am buying. Defense will be the key. Until someone stops Basham WB will remain a contender in my eyes. Realize they lost a lot, but he is a game changer. I get your point regarding Blacksburg, They have a tough schedule, but if they can survive with a decent seed (top four) they have a chance to be in the mix.

How good is GW really going to be. I know they are maturing.
GW has a lot of question marks. They return 20 starters but let's be real, they haven't beat anybody good in 3 years. 3rd year QB in Sam Branch returns and they have some very good (but unproven) skill players. Wesley Graves is going to be a name to get used to hearing for the next 3 years at RB (reminds me a lot of Siddarrius Williams), Carl Poole Jr is a hybrid LB/safety that is starting to attract D1 attention, Carlos Poole is probably the best athlete I've seen out of Danville in a long time. I think he goes D1 for basketball but at 6'4 QB/WR and his skill set he can make GW formidable (reminds me a lot of Warren Craft out of Fleming a couple of years ago).. The defense will be young but they have some studs at LB. They'll be big up front but like I told you fellas, I don't know if they have the depth on the line to compete with Salem and Sherando for 4 quarters. They have some boys to go and get it at receiver, unlink last year, but once again, they're unproven. To me, I think they'll be a top 5 team in Region D. As Cutnjump stated a while ago, they'll be as good as their homefield takes them. I'd compare them with Charlottesville and Blacksburg.. Speed, speed , and speed, but line play is a HUGE question mark. I just think that there's too many distractions going on in Danville. To me, the kids are just not as focused. I also think that time is running out for the GW coach. He's the best thing that has happened to GW football in a long time. As talented as these teams he will have for the next 2 years, it's win now or on to greener pastures. I hope the kids buy into the system. I couldn't tell you how these guys will stack up against Magna Vista, JF (who I think will be at the top of Region D) and Amherst who is a proven winner and gives GW fits every year. 10-0, watch out.. 9-1.. We'll see if they're for real come playoff time.. 8-2, round 1 exit...7-3... Who's applying for the head coaching job at GW next year?
 
There are a lot of schools is 4a that it is really hard to tell how good they are based on the regular season. As Hamsper said about his own team. Laf comes to mind as well. A lot of teams fall into tht bucket. Even the western teams that play a lot of other 4A teams but never play a real power house program. If you finish with a good record you are good but how good? Even my team it is hard to tell, but if monacan goes undefeated they are for sure a very good team.. but if they lose to manchester and bird what does that mean in the big picture of 4a? But they are almost expected to be 8-2, so at the end of the year again its like how good are they really in the scheme of 4a? Thats kinda why we have the playoffs to work all that out!
 
GW has a lot of question marks. They return 20 starters but let's be real, they haven't beat anybody good in 3 years. 3rd year QB in Sam Branch returns and they have some very good (but unproven) skill players. Wesley Graves is going to be a name to get used to hearing for the next 3 years at RB (reminds me a lot of Siddarrius Williams), Carl Poole Jr is a hybrid LB/safety that is starting to attract D1 attention, Carlos Poole is probably the best athlete I've seen out of Danville in a long time. I think he goes D1 for basketball but at 6'4 QB/WR and his skill set he can make GW formidable (reminds me a lot of Warren Craft out of Fleming a couple of years ago).. The defense will be young but they have some studs at LB. They'll be big up front but like I told you fellas, I don't know if they have the depth on the line to compete with Salem and Sherando for 4 quarters. They have some boys to go and get it at receiver, unlink last year, but once again, they're unproven. To me, I think they'll be a top 5 team in Region D. As Cutnjump stated a while ago, they'll be as good as their homefield takes them. I'd compare them with Charlottesville and Blacksburg.. Speed, speed , and speed, but line play is a HUGE question mark. I just think that there's too many distractions going on in Danville. To me, the kids are just not as focused. I also think that time is running out for the GW coach. He's the best thing that has happened to GW football in a long time. As talented as these teams he will have for the next 2 years, it's win now or on to greener pastures. I hope the kids buy into the system. I couldn't tell you how these guys will stack up against Magna Vista, JF (who I think will be at the top of Region D) and Amherst who is a proven winner and gives GW fits every year. 10-0, watch out.. 9-1.. We'll see if they're for real come playoff time.. 8-2, round 1 exit...7-3... Who's applying for the head coaching job at GW next year?
Correction.. GW will likely start Carlos Poole this year at QB. Branch, whose father passed last week, is dedicating the year to his dad who played receiver in college. Branch will play WR while Poole will be the QB. Poole was 19-1 as the JV QB. 6'4, 4.6 speed and can sling it. Los will have his fair share of college choices between football and basketball the next 2 years. I forget the Charlotte Vance poster's name on here but he and maybe @Lewis918777 have seen him play and can back my statement up.
 
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Thats the confidence have come to know. 9-1 worst case scenario?

Loudoun Valley and Liberty are no pushovers, but I think Sherando is 5-0 going into the Martinsburg game.

Bold prediction: If Sherando beats Martinsburg, they will make it to the state final game. Martinsburg is going to have a fantastic team this year (even by their lofty standards), and I don't think anyone in West Virginia stays within three scores of them this year. Those on their schedule are fortunate that WV has a mercy rule.

I think 7-3 at worst for the Warriors.
 
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Loudoun Valley and Liberty are no pushovers, but I think Sherando is 5-0 going into the Martinsburg game.

Bold prediction: If Sherando beats Martinsburg, they will make it to the state final game. Martinsburg is going to have a fantastic team this year (even by their lofty standards), and I don't think anyone in West Virginia stays within three scores of them this year. Those on their schedule are fortunate that WV has a mercy rule.

I think 7-3 at worst for the Warriors.

How does the WV mercy rule work? Just curious.
 
Correction.. GW will likely start Carlos Poole this year at QB. Branch, whose father passed last week, is dedicating the year to his dad who played receiver in college. Branch will play WR while Poole will be the QB. Poole was 19-1 as the JV QB. 6'4, 4.6 speed and can sling it. Los will have his fair share of college choices between football and basketball the next 2 years. I forget the Charlotte Vance poster's name on here but he and maybe @Lewis918777 have seen him play and can back my statement up.

Really sorry to hear about the the young man losing his father. Life is just not fair.
 
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How does the WV mercy rule work? Just curious.

If team up by 35 or more at start of 4th Q clock keeps running. Same as here except VIrginia rule starts at beggining of 2nd half.

Lafayette has it right. It was only recently instituted, and should limit the blowouts somewhat. Most of the top West Virginia schools are rebuilding this year, except for Martinsburg which is peaking.

I've also just noticed Loudoun Valley's brutal opening three games: Martinsburg, @Stone Bridge, and @Sherando. Holy cow.
 
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I wonder if there are other significant variations of the mercy rule around the country? I'm sure there are many with no mercy rule.
 
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