6A Regions C & D Power Points

[Bounty13]

After Week 1:

C.D. Hylton (28) 28.00
Madison (56) 28.00
South Lakes (54) 27.00
Westfield (54) 27.00
Annandale (52) 26.00
Battlefield (52) 26.00
Forest Park (52) 26.00
Freedom (PW) (52) 26.00
Hayfield (52) 26.00
Herndon (26) 26.00
Mount Vernon (52) 26.00
T.C. Williams (52) 26.00
West Potomac (52) 26.00
West Springfield (52) 26.00
Woodbridge (26) 26.00
Yorktown (26) 26.00
======
Centreville (42) 21.00
Fairfax (42) 21.00
Marshall (42) 21.00
Patriot (42) 21.00
South County (42) 21.00
Robinson (41) 20.50
Charles Colgan (32) 16.00
Gar-Field (16) 16.00
JEB Stuart (16) 16.00
Lake Braddock (32) 16.00
Oakton (32) 16.00
Osbourn Park (32) 16.00
W.T. Woodson (32) 16.00
Chantilly (31) 15.50
Langley (31) 15.50
Osbourn (31) 15.50
Stonewall Jackson (M) (31) 15.50
McLean (30) 15.00
Washington-Lee (15) 15.00

 

[falcettik]

Region C/D combine for 16 team bracket.

Bounty13, is a C/D combined bracket officially determined? I thought it was going to be two 8-team brackets with the four region setup, as in the past.

 

[Bounty13]

Bounty13, is a C/D combined bracket officially determined? I thought it was going to be two 8-team brackets with the four region setup, as in the past.

Haven't seen anything "official," but that's what I was told by someone with knowledge of the process. I guess things could change.

 

[Bounty13]

After Week 2:

Madison (88) 29.33
C.D. Hylton (56) 28.00
Yorktown (56) 28.00
Battlefield (82) 27.33
Freedom (PW) (82) 27.33
South Lakes (82) 27.33
Westfield (54) 27.00
Mount Vernon (80) 26.67
Hayfield (52) 26.00
Herndon (52) 26.00
West Springfield (78) 26.00
Woodbridge (52) 26.00
Centreville (73) 24.33
Annandale (72) 24.00
Robinson (72) 24.00
Patriot (71) 23.67
======
Fairfax (69) 23.00
Forest Park (69) 23.00
West Potomac (69) 23.00
T.C. Williams (68) 22.67
Marshall (43) 21.50
JEB Stuart (42) 21.00
Stonewall Jackson (M) (59) 19.67
W.T. Woodson (59) 19.67
South County (58) 19.33
Oakton (51) 17.00
Charles Colgan (49) 16.33
Osbourn (49) 16.33
Osbourn Park (49) 16.33
Chantilly (48) 16.00
Lake Braddock (48) 16.00
Washington-Lee (32) 16.00
Langley (47) 15.67
Gar-Field (31) 15.50
McLean (31) 15.50

 

[Bounty13]

After Week 3:

Woodbridge (86) 28.67
Yorktown (86) 28.67
South Lakes (114) 28.50
Freedom (PW) (84) 28.00
Hayfield (84) 28.00
Mount Vernon (110) 27.50
Westfield (82) 27.33
Madison (109) 27.25
West Springfield (80) 26.67
Centreville (103) 25.75
C.D. Hylton (76) 25.33
Patriot (76) 25.33
Battlefield (101) 25.25
T.C. Williams (99) 24.75
Marshall (73) 24.33
Annandale (72) 24.00
======
West Potomac (95) 23.75
Herndon (70) 23.33
Robinson (89) 22.25
Fairfax (88) 22.00
Forest Park (88) 22.00
South County (60) 20.00
Osbourn (77) 19.25
Stonewall Jackson (M) (77) 19.25
W.T. Woodson (77) 19.25
JEB Stuart (57) 19.00
Charles Colgan (75) 18.75
Oakton (52) 17.33
Lake Braddock (51) 17.00
Washington-Lee (51) 17.00
Chantilly (66) 16.50
Osbourn Park (65) 16.25
Langley (64) 16.00
Gar-Field (47) 15.67
McLean (47) 15.67

 

[LastCavalier]

Question Re: Yorktown:
Did I get this correctly?

(24) Win vs. Class 5 Woodrow Wilson
(02) 2 bonus points for playing lower class
(02) 2 bonus points for each Wilson win
(24) Win vs. Class 5 Wakefield
(02) 2 bonus points for playing lower class
(04) 2 points points for each Wakefield win
(26) Win vs. Class 6 W.T. Woodson
(02) 2 bonus points for each Woodson win
-----
(86) Total points divided by 3 games played
28.67 power points

 

[Bounty13]

Question Re: Yorktown:
Did I get this correctly?

Yes, that's what my breakdown is showing. But be careful later in the season if calculating Yorktown, as Woodrow Wilson and Wakefield both have opponents that VHSL does not recognize (basically the result of the game doesn't count).

 

[scloufan#]

As always, this is much appreciated!

 

[Bounty13]

After Week 4:

1. Woodbridge (120) 30.00
2. Westfield (118) 29.50
3. Freedom (PW) (116) 29.00
4. Mount Vernon (142) 28.40
5. Madison (140) 28.00
6. Centreville (139) 27.80
7. South Lakes (138) 27.60
8. Patriot (109) 27.25
9. Yorktown (105) 26.25
10. Battlefield (130) 26.00
T11. Hayfield (104) 26.00
T11. Marshall (104) 26.00
13. C.D. Hylton (103) 25.75
14. West Springfield (100) 25.00
15. West Potomac (98) 24.50
16. Fairfax (119) 23.80
======
South County (94) 23.50
T.C. Williams (117) 23.40
Annandale (93) 23.25
Robinson (90) 22.50
Forest Park (110) 22.00
Herndon (86) 21.50
Lake Braddock (85) 21.25
W.T. Woodson (105) 21.00
JEB Stuart (83) 20.75
Oakton (79) 19.75
Stonewall Jackson (M) (98) 19.60
Osbourn (97) 19.40
Osbourn Park (97) 19.40
Charles Colgan (94) 18.80
Washington-Lee (70) 17.50
Chantilly (84) 16.80
Langley (83) 16.60
McLean (66) 16.50
Gar-Field (64) 16.00

 

[otnorot]

Is there an explanation of the rating system anywhere on the VHSL website? Can't find it since the redesign.

 

[Bounty13]

Page 134 of the handbook.

http://www.vhsl.org/download/61/general/1830/vhsl-handbook.pdf

 

[Bounty13]

C/D will play separate brackets.

After Week 5:

Occoquan Region
T1. Freedom (PW) (148) 29.60
T1. Woodbridge (148) 29.60
3. Mount Vernon (146) 29.20
4. West Springfield (129) 25.80
5. C.D. Hylton (125) 25.00
T6. Fairfax (124) 24.80
T6. Robinson (124) 24.80
8. Hayfield (123) 24.60
======
West Potomac (122) 24.40
Annandale (120) 24.00
T.C. Williams (120) 24.00
Lake Braddock (117) 23.40
South County (115) 23.00
Forest Park (112) 22.40
W.T. Woodson (109) 21.80
JEB Stuart (103) 20.60
Charles Colgan (95) 19.00
Gar-Field (80) 16.00


Northern Region
1. Westfield (154) 30.80
2. Madison (173) 28.83
3. South Lakes (143) 28.60
4. Centreville (171) 28.50
5. Marshall (137) 27.40
6. Yorktown (134) 26.80
7. Battlefield (131) 26.20
8. Patriot (129) 25.80
======
Herndon (106) 21.20
Osbourn (100) 20.00
Stonewall Jackson (M) (120) 20.00
Osbourn Park (99) 19.80
Oakton (96) 19.20
Washington-Lee (89) 17.80
McLean (86) 17.20
Chantilly (103) 17.17
Langley (83) 16.60

 

[otnorot]

Top eight in the Northern Region already looks settled. Maybe Herndon could work their way in if they beat Yorktown. I sort of understand why the VHSL doesn't penalize you for playing teams in smaller classes anymore, but the points bonanza that Marshall will get if they beat George Mason in a couple weeks is ridiculous.

 

[codywlms]

Top eight in the Northern Region already looks settled. Maybe Herndon could work their way in if they beat Yorktown. I sort of understand why the VHSL doesn't penalize you for playing teams in smaller classes anymore, but the points bonanza that Marshall will get if they beat George Mason in a couple weeks is ridiculous.

yeah it's 2 fold, it doesn't hurt the higher class (in some cases helps) but it def helps the lower class in 80% of the situations

 

[OldNOVACoach]

Can someone please explain the difference between the 4th and 5th tie breaker rules for football:

(d) A team that played an opponent with an effective nine (9) game schedule
(non-recognized opponent, i.e., home school or out-of-state non-public school, or inability to schedule/play a 10th game) shall be seeded ahead of a school whose opponents play 10 game schedules.

(e) Schools that played an opponent with nine-game schedules shall be
seeded ahead of opponents who played 10-game schedules.

They seem to say the same thing (except reversing when they use "team" and when they use "school") to me i.e. a team who has one (or more?)
opponents with 9 game schedules is seeded ahead of a team who has played opponents that all had 10 game schedules?

I suspect (d) is supposed to say a team with a 9 game schedule is seeded ahead of a team with a 10 game schedule (i.e. the tied teams schedules are compared NOT the tied teams opponents schedules).

I also don't understand why less games is preferred to more games; it seems to me a team that played 10 games had one less bye ant thus a tougher schedule and should therefore be rated higher?

 

[falcettik]

OldNOVA Coach, this is how I interpret it: A team who plays only 9 games where they receive power points because they could not schedule a 10th game, or one of their games is against a non-VHSL recognized opponent, would, theoretically, have gained a few more power points if they had played/received credit for the wins of the team from that 10th game/non-recognized opponent (this assumes that 10th team/non-recognized opponent did not go winless, which is quite likely). If two teams are tied with power points in this situation, one with a 9 game schedule and one with a 10 game schedule under these conditions, then the one with the 9 game schedule would have theoretically outpointed the 10 game team and is therefore awarded the higher seed.

 

[OldNOVACoach]

falcettik,

Thanks for the quick reply. That's what I believe (d) is supposed to say, but don't you agree that, as currently written, (d) is the same as (e)? If not, please explain the difference between the two.

I understand your comment about 9 vs 10 game win/bonus points but since the rating is determined by dividing those points by the number of games, I think that is a wash.

 

[falcettik]

To be honest, I am not sure. Probably would require a statistician or mathematician to explain why.

 

[codywlms]

falcettik,

Thanks for the quick reply. That's what I believe (d) is supposed to say, but don't you agree that, as currently written, (d) is the same as (e)? If not, please explain the difference between the two.

I understand your comment about 9 vs 10 game win/bonus points but since the rating is determined by dividing those points by the number of games, I think that is a wash.

it's not really divided... it's just easier to present that way because 98% of the teams have 10 game schedules so you can divide it by 10. In reality (at the end), it's like 32.7pts mean that team has 327pts. The division by the number of games along the way, is to keep the standings realistic because of bye weeks, etc...

 

[OldNOVACoach]

it's not really divided... it's just easier to present that way because 98% of the teams have 10 game schedules so you can divide it by 10. In reality (at the end), it's like 32.7pts mean that team has 327pts. The division by the number of games along the way, is to keep the standings realistic because of bye weeks, etc...

Thanks that makes total sense. If a 9-game team's total points are tied with a 10-game team's total points, they should be seeded higher.

But I still don't get the difference between (d) and (e) since they both refer to opponent's schedules?

 

[Bounty13]

OldNOVA Coach, this is how I interpret it: A team who plays only 9 games where they receive power points because they could not schedule a 10th game, or one of their games is against a non-VHSL recognized opponent, would, theoretically, have gained a few more power points if they had played/received credit for the wins of the team from that 10th game/non-recognized opponent (this assumes that 10th team/non-recognized opponent did not go winless, which is quite likely). If two teams are tied with power points in this situation, one with a 9 game schedule and one with a 10 game schedule under these conditions, then the one with the 9 game schedule would have theoretically outpointed the 10 game team and is therefore awarded the higher seed.

It's not about a team's schedule, it's about a team's opponents schedule.

Look at it this way. A team play's 10 opponents. Those 10 opponents play (or should play) 10 games each. So there's an opportunity for the original team to benefit from the outcome of (10x10) 100 games. If one of the opponents games is against a non-recognized team, now the original team can only benefit from 99 games.

The distinction between D and E is giving an edge for an opponent that plays a full schedule (regardless of how many are recognized by VHSL) over an opponent that chooses to play less than a full schedule.

To recap...
An opponent that plays 10 games/full schedule, but not all of them are recognized by VHSL, would fall into category D.
An opponent that chooses to play only 9 games, would fall into category E.

 

[OldNOVACoach]

Bounty13,
Thanks, I now see the difference in the two tie breakers, it was the word "effective," I should have noticed that from the beginning.

It also makes sense to me that the focus is on opponents, if a team only plays nine effective games, that will greatly reduce their power points. I wonder if Wakefield realizes what they did to their playoff chances by scheduling a non-recognized team? They are automatically losing a minimum of 12 and a maximum of 44 power points.

 

[Bounty13]

Bounty13,
I wonder if Wakefield realizes what they did to their playoff chances by scheduling a non-recognized team? They are automatically losing a minimum of 12 and a maximum of 44 power points.

Wakefield is not losing anything, their total points are going to be divided by 9 instead of 10 like everyone else. For the most part there's not a huge disadvantage for playing 9, but there are smarter options for losing to a tough 10th opponent in order to gain a few tenth's of a point.

Just looking at base points, here's what it would look like for Wakefield:
7-2 in 9 game schedule = 21.33
7-3 in 10 game schedule = 20.40 (If you take on an extra loss from a team with 10 wins, you'd have 21.4)
6-3 in 9 game schedule = 20.00
6-4 in 10 game schedule = 19.20 (If you take on an extra loss from a team with at least 8 wins, you'd have 20.0)
5-4 in 9 game schedule = 18.66
5-5 in 10 game schedule = 18.00 (If you take on an extra loss from a team with at least 7 wins, you'd have 18.7)
4-5 in 9 game schedule = 17.33
4-6 in 10 game schedule = 16.80 (If you take on an extra loss from a team with at least 6 wins, you'd have 17.4)

Personally I think it's better to play a difficult 10th game.
1) You might win the game
2) If you play up a class (in Wakefield's example) you gain an extra +2 points (or you could subtract 2 wins from the above example, allowing you to schedule an easier opponent and a better chance at a win)
3) If you schedule a tough enough opponent even in a loss you'll come out ahead of doing a 9 game schedule.

 

[OldNOVACoach]

Bounty 13,

According to codywlms (and my read of the VHSL handbook):

it's not really divided... it's just easier to present that way because 98% of the teams have 10 game schedules so you can divide it by 10. In reality (at the end), it's like 32.7pts mean that team has 327pts. The division by the number of games along the way, is to keep the standings realistic because of bye weeks, etc...

So in your first example a 7-2 record would be 192 points while a 10 game schedule would be 204 (or 214) and the better of the two.

 

[Bounty13]

After Week 6:

Occoquan Region
T1. Freedom (PW) (182) 30.33
T1. Woodbridge (182) 30.33
3. Mount Vernon (168) 28.00
4. West Springfield (164) 27.33
5. Hayfield (159) 26.50
6. C.D. Hylton (155) 25.83
T7. Lake Braddock (153) 25.50
T7. T.C. Williams (153) 25.50
======
Annandale (145) 24.17
Robinson (145) 24.17
Fairfax (144) 24.00
West Potomac (143) 23.83
W.T. Woodson (141) 23.50
Forest Park (137) 22.83
JEB Stuart (136) 22.67
South County (136) 22.67
Charles Colgan (117) 19.50
Gar-Field (98) 16.33


Northern Region
1. Westfield (196) 32.67
2. South Lakes (174) 29.00
3. Centreville (202) 28.86
4. Marshall (173) 28.83
5. Madison (198) 28.29
T6. Yorktown (163) 27.17
T6. Patriot (163) 27.17
8. Battlefield (160) 26.67
======
Osbourn Park (127) 21.17
Herndon (124) 20.67
Osbourn (122) 20.33
Stonewall Jackson (M) (142) 20.29
Oakton (120) 20.00
Washington-Lee (120) 20.00
McLean (108) 18.00
Chantilly (106) 17.67
Langley (103) 17.17

 

[Bounty13]

Bounty 13,

According to codywlms (and my read of the VHSL handbook):

So in your first example a 7-2 record would be 192 points while a 10 game schedule would be 204 (or 214) and the better of the two.

Dividing by 10 for every team is not correct. You only divide by the number of recognized VHSL opponents played.

Take this year's Thomas Jefferson for example, this is how VHSL calculated it:
L 3-34 George Mason. Points earned: 16
L 8-22 Capitol Christian. Not a recognized opponent.
L 21-51 Manassas Park. Points earned: 13
L 7-41 Edison. Points earned: 15
L 0-56 Lee. Points earned: 14

Total points: 58 / 4 games = 14.5

 

[OldNOVACoach]

Dividing by 10 for every team is not correct. You only divide by the number of recognized VHSL opponents played.

Take this year's Thomas Jefferson for example, this is how VHSL calculated it:
L 3-34 George Mason. Points earned: 16
L 8-22 Capitol Christian. Not a recognized opponent.
L 21-51 Manassas Park. Points earned: 13
L 7-41 Edison. Points earned: 15
L 0-56 Lee. Points earned: 14

Total points: 58 / 4 games = 14.5

Bounty13,
We will just have to agree to disagree - I don't think there will be any division involved once we hit week 11 - the game points will be added to the bonus points and teams will be ranked based on that sum - NOT that sum divided by the recognized games played.

 

[scloufan#]

I think we know the 8 teams for the Northern region.
WF and SL are all but locked in the top 3 spots.
SL isnt going to lose again it the regular season.
Centreville and Madison should fill the #3 and #5 spot, because Marshall doesnt look like it will lose again either.

 

[otnorot]

Bounty13,
We will just have to agree to disagree - I don't think there will be any division involved once we hit week 11 - the game points will be added to the bonus points and teams will be ranked based on that sum - NOT that sum divided by the recognized games played.

Maybe I am missing something but the handbook seems pretty clear:

68-4-6 Rating Scale-To find the rating of a team, total the number of points it has earned in accordance with the following table and divide that total number by the number of games played

 

[EPJr]

Haven't seen anything "official," but that's what I was told by someone with knowledge of the process. I guess things could change.

Official should be released Monday

 

[OldNOVACoach]

Maybe I am missing something but the handbook seems pretty clear:

Yep, it is, I gotta eat crow - my apologies to Bounty13, should have looked it up instead of going by memory. Looks like a 9 game schedule with two byes is the best way to go.

 

[Bounty13]

After Week 7:

Occoquan Region
1. Freedom (PW) (226) 32.29
2. Woodbridge (207) 29.57
3. Mount Vernon (203) 29.00
4. Hayfield (197) 28.14
5. Lake Braddock (192) 27.43
6. C.D. Hylton (191) 27.29
7. West Springfield (184) 26.29
8. Robinson (181) 25.86
======
T.C. Williams (178) 25.43
West Potomac (178) 25.43
South County (176) 25.14
Fairfax (166) 23.71
Annandale (165) 23.57
W.T. Woodson (165) 23.57
Forest Park (160) 22.86
JEB Stuart (158) 22.57
Charles Colgan (146) 20.86
Gar-Field (116) 16.57


Northern Region
1. Westfield (234) 33.43
2. Centreville (211) 30.14
3. Marshall (210) 30.00
4. South Lakes (204) 29.14
5. Madison (232) 29.00
6. Patriot (199) 28.43
7. Battlefield (192) 27.43
8. Yorktown (190) 27.14
======
Herndon (154) 22.00
Stonewall Jackson (M) (174) 21.75
Osbourn Park (151) 21.57
Oakton (144) 20.57
Washington-Lee (144) 20.57
Osbourn (142) 20.29
Chantilly (132) 18.86
McLean (127) 18.14
Langley (126) 18.00

 

[OldNOVACoach]

After Week 8 - Unofficial

Occoquan Region
1. Freedom (PW) 32.29
2. Woodbridge 29.57
3. Mount Vernon 29.00
4. Hayfield 28.14
5. Lake Braddock 27.43
6. Hylton 27.29
7. West Springfield 26.29
8. Robinson 25.86
======================
9T.West Potomac 25.43
9T.Williams, T.C. 25.43
11. South County 25.14
12. Fairfax 23.71
13T.Annandale 23.57
13T.Woodson 23.57
15. Forest Park 22.86
16. Stuart 22.57
17. Colgan 20.86
18. Gar-Field 16.57

Northern Region
1. Westfield 33.43
2. Marshall 30.29
3. Centreville 30.14
4. South Lakes 29.14
5. Madison 29.00
6. Patriot (PW) 28.43
7. Battlefield 27.43
8. Yorktown 27.14
======================
9. Herndon 22.00
10. Jackson 21.75
11. Osbourn Park 21.57
12T.Oakton 20.57
12T.Washington‐Lee 20.57
14. Osbourn 20.29
15. Chantilly 18.86
16. McLean 18.14
17. Langley 18.00

10-16 update: I had game result entry errors for a Yorktown and a Woodbridge opponent in my spreadsheet. Correcting this error changed their ratings by a few 10ths of a point and changed Yorktown for tied for 7th to 8th place - I corrected those two above and it is now identical to the VHSL ratings released today.

 

[scloufan#]

Little surprised Marshall jumped up after playing a Div 2 school. 18 points for that win?

 

[OldNOVACoach]

Little surprised Marshall jumped up after playing a Div 2 school. 18 points for that win?

Playing down one or more classes is the same as playing your own class because you get 2 bonus pts/class. So while Marshall only got 18 Win Pts, they got 16 bonus pts - 8 (2 * 4 George Mason wins) plus 8 (2 * 4 for playing down 4 classes). The 8 bonus pts for playing down, effectively bring the win up to a class 6 win: 18+8 = 26.

Note it used to be teams only got 1 pt/class for playing down (unless it was an in-district opponent that you "had" to play, then you got 2pts/class). I don't know why VHSL made that change, my guess would be that when they changed to two 16 team brackets the southern schools complained since they don't have many class 6 opponents nearby.

 

[scloufan#]

Thanks for the updates and explanation.
I understand why Marshall scheduled that game, but 4 classes?
That game, point wise is the equivalent of playing Hylton, West Potomac or S.County. (With a win, there is no situation possible with a loss) All 3 of those teams would be significant favorites over Marshall.

All this does is set up an odd top 5 where the most coveted seed will be likely be 3. Assuming WF wins out.

 

[falcettik]

All this does is set up an odd top 5 where the most coveted seed will be likely be 3. Assuming WF wins out.

You said that right. Although I understand why we have the points system, and it can be confusing, it does set up situations exactly such as the potential one you refer to. If Marshall and Westfield win out, #3 is looking mighty fine and probably avoids both South Lakes and the Madison/Centreville loser. Although, without running the numbers, Centreville has the potential to get a lot of points from their games with Madison and Westfield and might jump to #2 (assuming Westfield wins out and they beat Madison). Still too many factors to get too deep into this-have to wait two more weeks to really see how things might play out.

 

[1amishfootballfan]

Speaking of 6A North playoffs. Am I missing something or is it harder to make the playoffs this year in 6A Region C/D than it was in 6A North last year?

27 teams in 6A North last year - 16 made playoffs or 59%.

18 Teams in Region C - 8 make playoffs or 44%. / 17 teams in Region D - 8 make playoffs or 47%.

Not saying it's good or bad and maybe I am looking at it from the wrong perspective.

 

[otnorot]

Yeah, it's harder because the Eastern PWC teams (and Colgan) joined and Mashall and Stuart moved up.

If more northern teams move up to 6A in the next cycle I wonder at which point they'll kick some of the Prince William teams back down south. Or make three northern regions and just one southern region.

 

[scloufan#]

No real big upsets tonight, that I have seen.
Occoquan Region has a shakeup in spots 6-13

And in the Northern 7&8 switch and 3,4 and 5 switch around some.

Anyone want to sign up to play Hylton in the first round?
And Madison and Centreville could play two week in a row..