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6A Regions C & D Power Points

If T.C. Williams wins tomorrow:

Occoquan
Freedom (PW) (266) 33.25
Mount Vernon (242) 30.25
Woodbridge (242) 30.25
Hayfield (236) 29.50
Lake Braddock (232) 29.00
C.D. Hylton (230) 28.75
South County (216) 27.00
T.C. Williams (212) 26.50
W.T. Woodson (208) 26.00
West Springfield (206) 25.75
Robinson (204) 25.50
West Potomac (201) 25.13
Annandale (191) 23.88
Forest Park (189) 23.63
Fairfax (186) 23.25
JEB Stuart (186) 23.25
Charles Colgan (170) 21.25
Gar-Field (136) 17.00


Northern
Westfield (282) 35.25
Marshall (248) 31.00
Centreville (244) 30.50
South Lakes (240) 30.00
Madison (238) 29.75
Patriot (236) 29.50
Yorktown (227) 28.38
Battlefield (217) 27.13
Stonewall Jackson (M) (209) 23.22
Herndon (177) 22.13
Oakton (175) 21.88
Osbourn Park (171) 21.38
Osbourn (166) 20.75
Langley (161) 20.13
Washington-Lee (161) 20.13
McLean (151) 18.88
Chantilly (150) 18.75



If Edison wins tomorrow:

Occoquan
Freedom (PW) (266) 33.25
Mount Vernon (244) 30.50
Woodbridge (242) 30.25
Hayfield (236) 29.50
Lake Braddock (232) 29.00
C.D. Hylton (230) 28.75
South County (216) 27.00
W.T. Woodson (208) 26.00
West Springfield (206) 25.75
Robinson (203) 25.38
West Potomac (200) 25.00
T.C. Williams (198) 24.75
Annandale (191) 23.88
Forest Park (189) 23.63
JEB Stuart (188) 23.50
Fairfax (186) 23.25
Charles Colgan (170) 21.25
Gar-Field (135) 16.88


Northern
Westfield (282) 35.25
Marshall (248) 31.00
Centreville (244) 30.50
South Lakes (240) 30.00
Madison (238) 29.75
Patriot (234) 29.25
Yorktown (227) 28.38
Battlefield (217) 27.13
Stonewall Jackson (M) (209) 23.22
Herndon (177) 22.13
Oakton (175) 21.88
Osbourn Park (171) 21.38
Osbourn (166) 20.75
Langley (161) 20.13
Washington-Lee (161) 20.13
McLean (152) 19.00
Chantilly (150) 18.75


In either scenario Yorktown has a +2 if Wilson beats Anacostia Saturday.
 
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After Week 9 - Unofficial

Occoquan Region
1. Freedom (PW) (266) 33.25
2T.Mount Vernon (242) 30.25
2T.Woodbridge (242) 30.25
4. Hayfield (236) 29.50
5. Lake Braddock (232) 29.00
6. Hylton (230) 28.75
7. South County (216) 27.00
8. Williams, T.C. (212) 26.50
============================
9. Woodson (208) 26.00
10. West Springfield (206) 25.75
11. Robinson (204) 25.50
12. West Potomac (201) 25.13
13. Annandale (191) 23.88
14. Forest Park (189) 23.63
15T.Fairfax (186) 23.25
15T.Stuart (186) 23.25
17. Colgan (170) 21.25
18. Gar-Field (136) 17.00
Northern Region
1. Westfield (282) 35.25
2. Marshall (248) 31.00
3. Centreville (244) 30.50
4. South Lakes (240) 30.00
5. Madison (238) 29.75
6. Patriot (PW) (236) 29.50
7. Yorktown (229) 28.63
8. Battlefield (217) 27.13
============================
9. Jackson (209) 23.22
10. Herndon (177) 22.13
11. Oakton (175) 21.88
12. Osbourn Park (171) 21.38
13. Osbourn (166) 20.75
14T.Langley (161) 20.13
14T.Washington‐Lee (161) 20.13
16. McLean (151) 18.88
17. Chantilly (150) 18.75
 
After Week 9:

Occoquan
Freedom (PW) (298) 33.11
Woodbridge (287) 31.89
Hayfield (272) 30.22
Lake Braddock (272) 30.22
Mount Vernon (267) 29.67
C.D. Hylton (262) 29.11
T.C. Williams (257) 28.56
South County (255) 28.33
======
Robinson (243) 27.00
W.T. Woodson (231) 25.67
West Potomac (230) 25.56
West Springfield (230) 25.56
Annandale (216) 24.00
Forest Park (213) 23.67
Fairfax (209) 23.22
JEB Stuart (204) 22.67
Charles Colgan (202) 22.44
Gar-Field (162) 18.00

Northern
Westfield (326) 36.22
South Lakes (285) 31.67
Marshall (283) 31.44
Madison (276) 30.67
Centreville (275) 30.56
Patriot (272) 30.22
Yorktown (256) 28.44 (+2)
Battlefield (252) 28.00
======
Stonewall Jackson (M) (236) 23.60
Herndon (207) 23.00
Oakton (201) 22.33
Osbourn Park (198) 22.00
Washington-Lee (192) 21.33
Osbourn (188) 20.89
Langley (184) 20.44
Chantilly (176) 19.56
McLean (170) 18.89
 
Not a lot of drama this year with playoff scenarios.

Northern playoff teams are set.

In Occoquan:
- For T.C. Williams and South County, it's a win and you're in. Lose and you might get left out.

- Robinson needs a win and a T.C. Williams or South County loss. It is possible South County could edge Robinson in points even in a loss, but my current calculation would have Robinson edging South County by 1 point.
 
OK, can someone with more ability to do the calculation than I please check this for the last week's games of the season,

Week #10 ranking with points and upcoming opponent:
1. Westfield (H) [(326) 36.22] vs. Chantilly
2. South Lakes (H) (285) 31.67 vs. Herndon
3. Marshall (A) (283) 31.44 vs. Wakefield
4. Madison (A) (276) 30.67 vs. Centreville
5. Centreville (H) (275) 30.56 vs. Madison
6. Patriot (A) (272) 30.22 vs. Battlefield
7. Yorktown (A) (256) 28.44 vs. Washington-Lee
8. Battlefield (H) (252) 28.00 vs. Patriot​

Week #11 Scenario 1: Assuming 1,2, 3, 4, 6, 7 win, Centreville and Battlefield lose, the final point total/seeding will be:
1. Westfield (326+26+(2*0 wins)) = 352
2. South Lakes (285+26+(2*4 wins)) = 319
3. Madison (276+26+(2*7 wins)) = 316
4. Marshall (283+24+2 (5a)+(2*3 wins)) = 315
5. Patriot (272+26+(2*7 wins)) = 312
6. Centreville (275+14+(1*7 wins)) = 296
7. Yorktown (256+26+(2*2 wins)) = 282
8. Battlefield (252+14+(1*7wins)) = 273​

Week #11 Scenario 2: Assuming 1,2, 3, 5, 6, 8 win, Madison and Patriot lose, the final point total/seeding will be:
1. Westfield (326+26+(2*0 wins)) = 352
2. South Lakes (285+26+(2*4 wins)) = 319
3. Marshall (283+24+2 (5a)+(2*3 wins)) = 315*
4. Centreville (275+26+(2*7 wins)) = 315*
5. Madison (276+14+(1*7 wins)) = 297
6. Patriot (272+14+(1*7 wins)) = 293
7. Battlefield (252+26+(2*7wins)) = 292
8. Yorktown (256+26+(2*2 wins)) = 282
*Not sure how a tie is dealt with...​

Jackson (#9) has finished their schedule and Herndon (#10) can't make up enough points on the odd chance they beat South Lakes. So, unless I have screwed this up completely, it looks like Madison and Centreville will play each other two weeks in a row (just a question of where).
 
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You cannot accurately predict power points for a region without predicting the W/L for week 11 of ALL the NR opponents - each team gets 1(if defeated) or 2 (if victorious) bonus points for all the wins of their opponents. Since they are then divided by 10, they are effectively 1/10th or 2/10ths of a point per opponents' wins and could be enough to effect several of the closely ranked teams in the NR. For example I put in my best guess for next weeks games and came up with 358 for Westfield vs your 352, that means I predicted three of the teams they played in the past to win next week. According to my records the below is the list of NR opponents for this year:
Annandale
Battlefield
Brooke Point
Centreville
Champe
Chantilly
Colgan
Colonial Forge
Dominion
Edison
Fairfax
Falls Church
Forest Park
Freedom (PW)
Gar-Field
Hayfield
Herndon
Hylton
Jackson
Lake Braddock
Langley
Lee, R.E. (S)
Madison
Marshall
Mason, George
McLean
Mount Vernon
Mountain View
North Stafford
Oakton
Osbourn
Osbourn Park
Patriot (PW)
Potomac Falls
Robinson
South County
South Lakes
Stone Bridge
Stuart
Wakefield
Washington‐Lee
West Potomac
West Springfield
Westfield
Williams, T.C.
Wilson, DC
Woodbridge
Woodson
Yorktown
 
Oh, I thought it was the number of wins of the opponent that they played that week, rather than the wins of all opponents a team plays through out the season...that make it pretty complex then...
 
SPL311U said:
OK, can someone with more ability to do the calculation than I please check this for the last week's games of the season,

Week #10 ranking with points and upcoming opponent:
1. Westfield (H) [(326) 36.22] vs. Chantilly
2. South Lakes (H) (285) 31.67 vs. Herndon
3. Marshall (A) (283) 31.44 vs. Wakefield
4. Madison (A) (276) 30.67 vs. Centreville
5. Centreville (H) (275) 30.56 vs. Madison
6. Patriot (A) (272) 30.22 vs. Battlefield
7. Yorktown (A) (256) 28.44 vs. Washington-Lee
8. Battlefield (H) (252) 28.00 vs. Patriot​

Week #11 Scenario 1: Assuming 1,2, 3, 4, 6, 7 win, Centreville and Battlefield lose, the final point total/seeding will be:
1. Westfield (326+26+(2*0 wins)) = 352
2. South Lakes (285+26+(2*4 wins)) = 319
3. Madison (276+26+(2*7 wins)) = 316
4. Marshall (283+24+2 (5a)+(2*3 wins)) = 315
5. Patriot (272+26+(2*7 wins)) = 312
6. Centreville (275+14+(1*7 wins)) = 296
7. Yorktown (256+26+(2*2 wins)) = 282
8. Battlefield (252+14+(1*7wins)) = 273​

Week #11 Scenario 2: Assuming 1,2, 3, 5, 6, 8 win, Madison and Patriot lose, the final point total/seeding will be:
1. Westfield (326+26+(2*0 wins)) = 352
2. South Lakes (285+26+(2*4 wins)) = 319
3. Marshall (283+24+2 (5a)+(2*3 wins)) = 315*
4. Centreville (275+26+(2*7 wins)) = 315*
5. Madison (276+14+(1*7 wins)) = 297
6. Patriot (272+14+(1*7 wins)) = 293
7. Battlefield (252+26+(2*7wins)) = 292
8. Yorktown (256+26+(2*2 wins)) = 282
*Not sure how a tie is dealt with...​

Jackson (#9) has finished their schedule and Herndon (#10) can't make up enough points on the odd chance they beat South Lakes. So, unless I have screwed this up completely, it looks like Madison and Centreville will play each other two weeks in a row (just a question of where).
Click to expand...

SPL311U, I don't have my calculations with me, but I recall that I have the exact same order in both scenarios. Then, as OldNOVACoach said, you have to account for the W-L of every opponent, which makes the permutations far too many to calculate. However, I expect those extra few points will really only affect 3-4-5-6. Unless something drastic happens, WF is #1, SL #2, and BF/Yorktown will almost certainly be #7-8 (order TBD). As you indicated, by far the two most important games in terms of seeding are CV-MAD and BF-PAT.
 
SPL311u, sorry I didn't have more time yesterday to delve into this. I agree with falcettik's analysis. Based on my week 11 predictions (I have Patriot beating Battlefield) the final power points if Centerville wins is:
1. Westfield (358) 35.80
2. South Lakes (330) 33.00
3. Centreville (321) 32.10
4. Marshall (321) 32.10
5. Patriot (PW) (320) 32.00
6. Madison (304) 30.40
7. Yorktown (295) 29.50
8. Battlefield (278) 27.80
Note: Marshall and Centreville are tied but Centreville wins the common opponent tie breaker.

If Madison wins, the flip spots:
1. Westfield (358) 35.80
2. South Lakes (329) 32.90
3. Madison (322) 32.20
4. Marshall (322) 32.20
5. Patriot (PW) (320) 32.00
6. Centreville (303) 30.30
7. Yorktown (295) 29.50
8. Battlefield (278) 27.80
Note: Again Marshall and Madison are tied, but Madison wins the head-to-head tie breaker.

Finally, in both scenarios Patriot is only 1/10 or 2/10's away so there is probably some scenario where they could get in the mix. Tie breaking in this case gets crazy. Marshall would win the tie for 3rd with the 4th tie breaker as they had an opponent (George Mason) with 9 effective games. Then Centerville or Madison wins the 7th tie breaker (average of opponents' ratings) for 4th place and Patriot is 5th.

I think I have this right? Will have to wait until Saturday to be sure!
 
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I can't say any one team has blown me away this year, they're all beatable. It's all going to come down to matchups, you might see a team make a run with favorable matchups.

But I'd still give a slight edge to Westfield, even though I think they're down this year, simply because of their coaching and experience playing in big games.
 
I was at the Westfield/Patriot game. Patriot shot themselves in the foot with penalties and the turnover inside their own 10. Had a TD called back....the break down in coverage right before halftime that resulted in a TD because one of their safeties was apparently suspended that game. I was impressed with the talent at Patriot, I just don't know enough about their staff.
 
That's my observation as well...having been at the Westfield /Madison game. Westfield is beatable, if you don't beat yourself. The challenge is that Kim and Asante have grown throughout the season, so their offense clicks pretty well. Can a team slow that down enough and score on the other side of the ball? That is the real question. Centreville didn't show it. South Lakes and Freedom didn't play them, so it is an unknown. Madison came real close to doing it in a defensive struggle (and without their #1 RB).
 
I would have to say there are more teams than usual that could win it this year if they get hot, or someone shoots themselves in the foot with turnovers. There is no one dominant team this year. Among a handful of other teams at the end that I think could have a shot, for the reasons above, I think this year's champion will most likely come from this group of seven teams (in no particular order):

Westfield-great defense overall, but the right offense will give them trouble. Very balanced offense with several weapons. Best coaching around, IMO.
Madison-another great defense with enough strength in the run game to carry them far.
Freedom-offense puts up lots of points and the defense is not bad but, then again, they have not played a power team with multiple offensive options (like Madison or Westfield) so how good they are remains to be seen. They will go as far as QB Felton carries them. They are the prohibitive favorite in their region, IMO, then would match up with Region D with Westfield, Madison, etc.
(I have not seen the teams below this point, so what I know is historical or off the boards):
Manchester-the only team in the RVA area with a chance, they are also supposed to have a good defense but they will have to go through Colonial Forge to get to the semis-not good for Manchester.
Colonial Forge-lost in the semis last year to Smith in a close game (27-20) where I think Smith scored late-a game Forge could easily have won. And did it with a bunch of underclassmen. They have been #1 in Preps all season for a reason and I think are probably the team to beat.
Oscar Smith-Smith is Smith. Their only loss is 28-21 to a highly ranked 9-0 Florida team, Vero Beach. They will probably fight it out with Forge for a berth in Hampton.
Landstown-They have not given up a lot of points, but they don't play a strong schedule either.
If the stars align: Centreville, Thomas Dale, Ocean Lakes
 
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Was not impressed with Madison tonight. Cville moved the ball at will. Madison's only points came from their defense. I expect a different game from them next week if they do in fact play each other.
 
Top 8 Northern
Still a few results out for final point totals
and 3,4 and 5 spot is within 2-3 points.


1 Westfield
2 South Lakes
3 Centreville
4 Patriot
5 Marshall <-- Could move to 4 if G.Mason won.
6 Madison
7 Yorktown
8 Battlefield
 
scloufan# said:
Top 8 Northern
Still a few results out for final point totals
and 3,4 and 5 spot is within 2-3 points.


1 Westfield
2 South Lakes
3 Centreville
4 Patriot
5 Marshall <-- Could move to 4 if G.Mason won.
6 Madison
7 Yorktown
8 Battlefield
Click to expand...
Mason won 48-0.
 
That should leave Marshall and Centreville tied, but Centerville beat Madison and Marshall lost. Only common Opp.
 
@oldtimer448...

Madison's defense was on the field way too long and Centreville scored on all three of their turnovers. Sadly Casey Koshuta, one of the Warhawks two core running backs, is likely now done for the season w/ another injury to his knee on play that really should have been whistled dead and not dogpiled.
 
Obtained two sources for scores and double checked formulas.... obviously unofficial, but this is what I have:


Occoquan
1. Freedom (PW) (336) 33.60
2. Woodbridge (318) 31.80
3. Lake Braddock (317) 31.70
4. Hayfield (309) 30.90
5. C.D. Hylton (299) 29.90
6. T.C. Williams (296) 29.60
7. Mount Vernon (292) 29.20
8. South County (286) 28.60 (Beats Robinson on tie-breaker B: head-to-head)
======
Robinson (286) 28.60
West Potomac (278) 27.80
W.T. Woodson (257) 25.70
West Springfield (256) 25.60
Fairfax (248) 24.80
Annandale (244) 24.40
JEB Stuart (244) 24.40
Forest Park (240) 24.00
Charles Colgan (231) 23.10
Gar-Field (189) 18.90

Occoquan Matchups
8. South County @ 1. Freedom (PW)
7. Mount Vernon @ 2. Woodbridge
6. T.C. Williams @ 3. Lake Braddock
5. C.D. Hylton @ 4. Hayfield


Northern
1. Westfield (360) 36.00
2. South Lakes (326) 32.60
3. Centreville (321) 32.10 (Beats Marshall on tie-breaker C: common opponents, Centreville defeated Madison)
4. Marshall (321) 32.10
5. Patriot (320) 32.00
6. Madison (306) 30.60
7. Yorktown (292) 29.20
8. Battlefield (278) 27.80
======
Stonewall Jackson (M) (244) 24.40
Herndon (237) 23.70
Oakton (229) 22.90
Osbourn Park (229) 22.90
Washington-Lee (216) 21.60
Langley (212) 21.20
Osbourn (209) 20.90
Chantilly (205) 20.50
McLean (191) 19.10

Northern Matchups
8. Battlefield @ 1. Westfield
7. Yorktown @ 2. South Lakes
6. Madison @ 3. Centreville
5. Patriot @ 4. Marshall
 
Bounty13 said:
Obtained two sources for scores and double checked formulas.... obviously unofficial, but this is what I have:


Occoquan
1. Freedom (PW) (336) 33.60
2. Woodbridge (318) 31.80
3. Lake Braddock (317) 31.70
4. Hayfield (309) 30.90
5. C.D. Hylton (299) 29.90
6. T.C. Williams (296) 29.60
7. Mount Vernon (292) 29.20
8. South County (286) 28.60 (Beats Robinson on tie-breaker B: head-to-head)
======
Robinson (286) 28.60
West Potomac (278) 27.80
W.T. Woodson (257) 25.70
West Springfield (256) 25.60
Fairfax (248) 24.80
Annandale (244) 24.40
JEB Stuart (244) 24.40
Forest Park (240) 24.00
Charles Colgan (231) 23.10
Gar-Field (189) 18.90

Occoquan Matchups
8. South County @ 1. Freedom (PW)
7. Mount Vernon @ 2. Woodbridge
6. T.C. Williams @ 3. Lake Braddock
5. C.D. Hylton @ 4. Hayfield


Northern
1. Westfield (360) 36.00
2. South Lakes (326) 32.60
3. Centreville (321) 32.10 (Beats Marshall on tie-breaker C: common opponents, Centreville defeated Madison)
4. Marshall (321) 32.10
5. Patriot (320) 32.00
6. Madison (306) 30.60
7. Yorktown (292) 29.20
8. Battlefield (278) 27.80
======
Stonewall Jackson (M) (244) 24.40
Herndon (237) 23.70
Oakton (229) 22.90
Osbourn Park (229) 22.90
Washington-Lee (216) 21.60
Langley (212) 21.20
Osbourn (209) 20.90
Chantilly (205) 20.50
McLean (191) 19.10

Northern Matchups
8. Battlefield @ 1. Westfield
7. Yorktown @ 2. South Lakes
6. Madison @ 3. Centreville
5. Patriot @ 4. Marshall
Click to expand...
 
Marshall played a pretty weak schedule this year. I don't get how they have enough points to beat out Patriot for the 4th spot.

If Patriot doesn't self implode, that game might be a playoff "blowout".
 
Bounty13,
Great job, I have the exact same power points/brackets. I'm relatively sure Lake Taylor will beat B.T. Washington today giving Freedom 2/10s more points but that is of no consequence.

TheDeathPenalty,
According to my calculations only Stuart had a weaker schedule in NOVA. The reason Marshall beat out Patriot for the 4th spot is they get the equivalent pts for beating all those 5A schools (24 for the win plus 2 bonus pts.) as Patriot gets for beating 6A schools (26 pts). In my view VHSL needs to relook the formula for playing down a class and/or move Stuart and Marshall into one of the 6A districts and make the National a pure 5A district.

Marshall vs Patriot will probably be the worst blow-out in VHSL 4 vs 5 history.
 
I don't think the brackets will be finalized until the VHSL releases the official final ratings, then it will take two more days to figure out where the brackets are hidden on the VHSL website.
 
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otnorot said:
I don't think the brackets will be finalized until the VHSL releases the official final ratings, then it will take two more days to figure out where the brackets are hidden on the VHSL website.
Click to expand...

Good thing Bounty is here, and we know what is correct.
 
It's not surprising Stuart has a weak schedule given they just moved up to 6A. Would have been much better off staying 5A with conference opponents. Program that was awful for many years is much better but now with new classification they have little chance of making playoff.

Is there a list of enrollments or cutoff figure that determines who moves up and down?
 
easmith44 said:
It's not surprising Stuart has a weak schedule given they just moved up to 6A. Would have been much better off staying 5A with conference opponents. Program that was awful for many years is much better but now with new classification they have little chance of making playoff.

Is there a list of enrollments or cutoff figure that determines who moves up and down?
Click to expand...
The VHSL website (www.vhsl.org) has enrollment figures that they use to determine each school's classification. They usually run on a two year cycle. The VHSL site is not user friendly, but I think what you are looking for can be found here: http://www.vhsl.org/alignment. I have seen a document on the site where they show it broken out by classification but I could not find that.
 
I wonder if they will look at balancing out the regions with the number of teams?

6a- 12
6b- 8
6c- 18
6d -17

Assuming I counted correctly.
In 6b everyone makes the playoffs? Even a 1 win team?
 
I moved from FL and it's much easier to keep track of the playoffs and matchups. Especially at seasons end. VA seems slow with the brackets.
 
TheDeathPenalty said:
Who is the favorite this year in 6A? And who is the team that could make a run that might be overlooked right now?
Click to expand...

I don't really feel like Class 6 has a "favorite" this year if it's not Colonial Forge. Falcetti has done a nice summary of the contenders above.

I think an overlooked team might be Patriot. That big loss to Colonial Forge was the season opener and they played that game without a QB. Their only other loss was to Westfield which is a game that got away from them after being close early (and they made a nice comeback effort late). Although their defense seems suspect they only allowed 42 points in their final 5 games and are averaging 35 points a game on offense. They have one of the biggest offensive lines I have ever seen in high school, a quality veteran QB and some real weapons at RB and WR. And they get a gift from VHSL in the form of maybe the weakest #4 seed in VHSL playoff history. If their defense has really improved they will be a tough out. If not, then they will need to score a lot of points to keep advancing.
 
scloufan# said:
I wonder if they will look at balancing out the regions with the number of teams?

6a- 12
6b- 8
6c- 18
6d -17

Assuming I counted correctly.
In 6b everyone makes the playoffs? Even a 1 win team?
Click to expand...

6B only took seven teams for the playoffs. Cosby was the unlucky team left out. Or maybe they were lucky, because if you're 1-9 do you really want another week of practice so you can get running-clocked by the top seed?

If more Fairfax teams move up to class 6 in 2019, which seems probable, I think they'll have to split up the remnants of region 6B and make three "northern" regions and lump the remaining Richmond and Hampton Roads teams in one "south" region. Flip a coin to see who gets stuck with Franklin County.
 
easmith44 said:
It's not surprising Stuart has a weak schedule given they just moved up to 6A. Would have been much better off staying 5A with conference opponents. Program that was awful for many years is much better but now with new classification they have little chance of making playoff.

Is there a list of enrollments or cutoff figure that determines who moves up and down?
Click to expand...

It's a little complicated now because classifications run on a four-year cycle now, but they look at the enrollments after two years and if your enrollment is something like 5% above the ceiling or 5% below the floor for your class you get moved up or down in the middle of the cycle. Stuart and Marshall both had big enough enrollment increases that they got moved up this year, while the next "full" reclassification is in 2019.
 
otnorot said:
If more Fairfax teams move up to class 6 in 2019, which seems probable, I think they'll have to split up the remnants of region 6B and make three "northern" regions and lump the remaining Richmond and Hampton Roads teams in one "south" region. Flip a coin to see who gets stuck with Franklin County.
Click to expand...

That would make a lot of sense. I know that one reason they went back to 4 regions and divided them up as they did, with proximity being the biggest factor to allow for teams closer together to match up in the first 3 playoff rounds, is.... wait for it...... money. VHSL has been losing money in recent years and we all know football is their biggest moneymaker.

If more teams move up, I could envision the three "northern" groups being something like a NW, NE, and then the third group ("North Central"?) comprised of teams from Fredericksburg north until you got to 1/3 of the total teams up "north".
 
OldNOVACoach said:
Bounty13,
Great job, I have the exact same power points/brackets. I'm relatively sure Lake Taylor will beat B.T. Washington today giving Freedom 2/10s more points but that is of no consequence.

TheDeathPenalty,
According to my calculations only Stuart had a weaker schedule in NOVA. The reason Marshall beat out Patriot for the 4th spot is they get the equivalent pts for beating all those 5A schools (24 for the win plus 2 bonus pts.) as Patriot gets for beating 6A schools (26 pts). In my view VHSL needs to relook the formula for playing down a class and/or move Stuart and Marshall into one of the 6A districts and make the National a pure 5A district.

Marshall vs Patriot will probably be the worst blow-out in VHSL 4 vs 5 history.
Click to expand...

Giving Marshall 8 bonus point for playing down 4 classes is the one that makes zero sense. I assume the intent was to make sure teams had willing opponents, and eliminate any issue with class/points, but this one is moronic.
 
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