As we have been discussing all season, this year's Shenandoah District race has been a wild one and each week there seems to be a different twist or turn. As it stands now, there are five teams that could mathematically either tie for the regular season title or win it outright. Of course the district title is not as important as all the jockeying for playoff positions and going into this next weekend I believe that our top six teams are all still in the running for the post-season. However, at least a couple of them are hanging on by a thread for a 7 or 8 seed, and they may even knock one another out but I think a minimum of four or five will make the cut.
There are three weekends left in the regular season, but it is important to note that most of our teams only have two games left. That is because a bye week was built in to the schedule for everyone, and so far only Staunton and Waynesboro have had theirs. Therefore the five Augusta County schools each have only two regular season games left to make their moves.
Speaking of Waynesboro, they still have three games left and we have to be honest and admit that they will almost certainly lose all three of those. So as I continue this evaluation, let's just consider those three games won by those three opponents.......Wilson, Riverheads, and Staunton in chronological order.
So that really only leaves us with five meaningful games between the various front-runners that will sort out the title. So here are the important dates and games left on the schedule.........
This Friday, October 25th........Riverheads at Stuarts Draft, Staunton at Buffalo Gap, Wilson at Waynesboro, Fort Defiance has a bye.
Next Friday, November 1st........Fort Defiance at Staunton, Waynesboro at Riverheads, the other three (Gap, Draft, Wilson) all have their bye week.
Final night of regular season, November 8th........Buffalo Gap at Fort Defiance, Stuarts Draft at Wilson, Staunton at Waynesboro, Riverheads has a bye.
At this point, there are three teams left with one district loss..........Riverheads, Staunton and Stuarts Draft. One of those of course will get its second loss Friday in the big game of the week over in the Cougar Den. There are two teams left with two losses, Fort and Wilson. It is not possible for either of those to win the title outright, but they can still tie for it. Buffalo Gap now has three losses and is out of the title race, but as you can see above, they still have two chances to upset somebody else's apple cart.
So how will all of this sort itself out? As I see it, there are four main possibilities. A) Riverheads can end the suspense with a win at SD this week (more on that later), B) Staunton will win out and the others will all beat up on each other so that The Storm wins the title, C) The Cougars will win out and either claim the title outright or share it with Staunton if it also wins out, which technically should give The Storm the right to claim it, or D) After those final two games on Nov. 8, everybody will have at least two losses and there will be ties to sort out. In fact I think there might even be a chance for a five-way tie! It has been THAT crazy a year.
So let's take a look at this week's three games, starting with the least significant and working our way up to the main event...............
WILSON AT WAYNESBORO.......Not trying to be cold but it has been obvious from the beginning that we have had six strong teams this year and a seventh that just has to keep trying to build and improve. So this one will be a name-the-score win for Wilson and give them two weeks to cook up something special for the Cougars.
STAUNTON AT BUFFALO GAP..........This one could be interesting and it may come down to which Staunton team shows up. The one that somehow shut out Wilson should be able to handle the Bison, but the one that only mustered 55 yards of offense against Riverheads could be in trouble if the Bison get fired up for their Senior Night. I look for this one to be a shootout but I see Staunton coming out on top so we can keep more drama in the overall picture.
RIVERHEADS AT STUARTS DRAFT.........It seems that the district title comes down to this game just about every year. The crowd will be so huge that it will almost look like a home game for each team. Like I just said about Staunton, it could come down to which Riverheads team shows up. The Gladiators played their best overall game of the year when they shut out Staunton two weeks ago, but Friday night's win over Buffalo Gap probably left the coaches with some issues to address in practice this week. First of all, the Big Red had some timing and efficiency gaffes (false starts, that sort of thing) to clean up. Secondly it had to worry the coaches that the defense gave up two late scores to make a 34-8 game turn out to be much closer than it should have been. Then there is the matter of injuries. That has been an ongoing thing for Riverheads this year, and they will need to be at full strength if at all possible for this one. Looking at the game from a Cougar perspective, the motivation simply HAS to be there........Senior Night.....district title on the line.....haven't beaten the Gladiators in several years..........so can they handle all that pressure and pull out the win? As I hinted at above, a Riverheads win should declare them the district champs because they will not lose at home to Waynesboro, and if they finish tied with Staunton, RHS should be declared the champs because of the head-to-head win over The Storm. For that reason, I will predict a Gladiator victory in a close one maybe decided by a field goal or two point try. But if the Cougars win, it will be every man for himself in those final frantic two weeks.
Weather sounds great at this early (Monday) stage. So DVR the World Series game if there is one that night and come on out to one of these games.
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