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2019 VHSL WEEKLY FOOTBALL RATINGS

STATE RANKINGS-All Classes

1 Highland Springs

2 Westfield

3 Freedom

4 Stone Bridge

5 Salem(VB)

6 Maury

7 Manchester

8 Colonial Forge

9 SOCO

10 Oscar Smith

11 Broad Run

12 Indian River

13 Louisa

14 Massaponax

15 EC Glass

16 Varina

17 Tuscarora

18 Salem

19 Hopewell

20 Stonewall Jackson-M
 
REGION 4B: 10/28/19

1) Louisa (8-0): 28.0**
2) Eastern View (8-0): 26.5**
3) Monacan (7-1): 26.375**
4) Patrick Henry (6-3): 24.444
5) Dinwiddie (4-4): 24.25
6) Spotsylvania (6-2): 23.75
7) Huguenot (4-4): 22.625
8) Chancellor (5-4): 22.444
---
9) King George (4-4): 22.25
10) Powhatan (3-5): 21.75
11) Orange (3-5): 19.25

ANALYSIS: The Lions and Cyclones find themselves in familiar territory, unbeaten heading into November. Monacan has surged to the #3 seed and are on the doorstep of #2 Eastern View, who finish the season with 6-2 Spotsylvania and 5-4 Chancellor. The Chiefs have 5-3 Cosby, then 6-2 Clover Hill. If both teams win out, they might even take a shot at Louisa, who finish with teams with a current combined record of 6-10 (Western Albemarle, Albemarle). Patrick Henry only has Tomato Bowl 61 with Lee-Davis left, so maximizing points will be difficult in trying to stay in the #4 spot. Dinwiddie likely overtakes them by defeating Meadowbrook Friday. Then, the Generals end hosting Thomas Dale. Dinwiddie controls their own destiny when it comes to hosting in the region quarterfinals, just win out. But, Spotsylvania can change everything by handing Eastern View their first loss this Friday. Huguenot needs to win at Midlothian during Chancellor's bye week, while King George plays one-win Caroline. Powhatan really needs to beat one-win James River to stay close heading into Week 11, when they'll finish with the Falcons, while Chancellor ends with Eastern View while King George concludes with Spotsylvania. The Indians need the higher seeds to win, and to win out, to have a shot at a game November 15th.

OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS:

Region 4A: 1) Lake Taylor 28.333, 2) Warhill 28.0, 3) Churchland 27.0
Region 4C: 1) Broad Run 30.5, 2) Tuscarora 29.5, 3) Liberty-Bealton 28.75
Region 4D: 1) Salem 29.125, 2) E.C. Glass 28.5, 3) Pulaski Co. 27.875

http://rvasportsnetwork.blogspot.com/
 
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How close is the split between 4-6 in 4D?
Here are the 4D ratings & remaining schedule:

Salem 29.125 (Hidden Valley, Pulaski)
EC Glass 28.5 (Heritage, Brookville)
Pulaski 27.875 (Patrick Henry, Salem)
Halifax 26.0 (Patrick Co, Tunstall)
GW Danville 25.5 (Magna Vista, Martinsville)
Blacksburg 24.222 (Christiansburg)
Jefferson Forest 21.625 (Brookville, Rustburg)
Amherst 17.250 (LCA, Liberty)
 
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Here are the 4D ratings & remaining schedule:

Salem 29.125 (Hidden Valley, Pulaski)
EC Glass 28.5 (Heritage, Brookville)
Pulaski 27.875 (Patrick Henry, Salem)
Halifax 26.0 (Patrick Co, Tunstall)
GW Danville 25.5 (Magna Vista, Martinsville)
Blacksburg 24.222 (Christiansburg)
Jefferson Forest 21.625 (Brookville, Rustburg)
Amherst 17.250 (LCA, Liberty)

To go even further,
Salem: 233
Glass: 228
Pulaski: 223
Halifax: 208
GW: 204
Blacksburg: 218
JF: 173
Amherst: 138
 
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Between Louisa and Eastern View and Monacan for the #1 Seed it comes down to 7 games since Louisa and EV have so many common opponents.

The Most Important Game is
Kettle Run @ Culpeper Co (11/1/19) - 4 point swing on this game. Louisa gets 2 if Kettle run wins its first game, EV gets 2 if Culpeper wins.

Louisa's Chances for extra points (Max of 6/ likely of 2/ min of 0)

Massaponax vs North Stafford (11/1/19) - Massaponax has bye last week of the year so this is their final game. Massaponax's only losses are to louisa and powerhouse Colonial Forge, Smart money is with Massaponax to pick up the home win.

Kettle Run vs Sherando (11/8/19) - While Kettle Run is home, smart money is on sherando looking to lock up a playoff spot in 4C

Courtland @ James Monroe (11/1/19) Eastern View gets 2 points either way, Louisa also picks up 2 if Courtland finds its second victory of the year.

Eastern View's Chances for extra points (Max of 6/ likely 0/ min 0)

Culpeper co @ Millbrook (11/8/19) - Millbrook is on the outside of the playoff hunt looking in, could be motivated if they are still in the hunt, could be ready to pack it in if not, smart money on Millbrook hear (upset very possible)

Orange vs Fluvanna (11/1/19) - Orange battles a Fluvanna team that played louisa tough for a 1/2. Fluvanna is in the playoff hunt, orange is not, smart money on Fluvanna here

Orange @ Western Albemarle (11/8/19) - Orange again has to battle a team in the playoff hunt, Western can be tough team at home, smart money on western.

Without the games mentioned above Louisa with wins over Western Albemarle and Albemarle will have 218 power points and 62 bonus points. They will pick up 8 bonus points from (C-ville vs Albermarle; Orange vs Fluvanna; Orange vs Western; Fluvanna vs Monticello) giving them 288

Without the games mentioned above Eastern View with wins over Spotsylvania and Chancellor will have 218 power points and 60 bonus points. They will pick up 10 bonus points from ( C-ville vs Albermarle; Caroline vs King George; Caroline vs James Monroe; Courtland vs James Monroe; Spotsylvania vs King George ) giving them 288 also.

if we consider that Kettle run and Culpeper have little chance to beat their final opponents, Eastern View needs Orange to win out & Culpeper to beat Kettle Run & Massaponax to lose. Louisa needs Kettle Run to beat Culpepper OR orange to lose one and massaponax to win OR Orange to lose one and Courtland to upset James Monroe OR Orange to lose both. Louisa wins the tiebreaker as I understand it for having the *(h)
The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's VHSL
public and VHSL non-public school opponents. Several of Eastern views opponents played class 1 and 2 schools, which i think will hurt them here.

When I looked at Monacan
If they win out they are number 1, Monacan has the hardest schedule of the 3 teams left, in my opinion.

Also from my calculations any of the top 3 can drop a game and would still be the 3rd seed or better.
 
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@goodneighbor05 great analysis! I have them each at 292 without the KR/Culpeper game but tied either way. Also, yes, if Monacan wins out they will over take both EV and LC. What are the chances they do (win out)?
 
Monacan has Cosby and Clover Hill left, so it's a good chance they win out. Clover Hill has been up and down though, kind of hard to predict that game.
 
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Here are the 4D ratings & remaining schedule:

Salem 29.125 (Hidden Valley, Pulaski)
EC Glass 28.5 (Heritage, Brookville)
Pulaski 27.875 (Patrick Henry, Salem)
Halifax 26.0 (Patrick Co, Tunstall)
GW Danville 25.5 (Magna Vista, Martinsville)
Blacksburg 24.222 (Christiansburg)
Jefferson Forest 21.625 (Brookville, Rustburg)
Amherst 17.250 (LCA, Liberty)

This will be interesting to see how it plays out. #3 Pulaski could go 0-2 or 1-1 in their remaining games (yes, 2-0 too). #4 Halifax has a chance of winning out and finishing out 8-2. #5 GW plays a tough Magna Vista team and could go 2-0 or 1-1 to finish out. Curious to see how it all shakes out especially if Pulaski loses 1 or both of their games and Halifax and GW both finish and end up 8-2.
 
It’s looks like it’s gonna be 3 unbeaten teams Louisa , eastern view , Monacan all will be 10-0, by monacan playing more 4a,5a,6a teams. They’ll get the extra points to get the number one seed, I can’t see them losing the last 2 games, also it’s tough to play in monacan
 
It’s looks like it’s gonna be 3 unbeaten teams Louisa , eastern view , Monacan all will be 10-0, by monacan playing more 4a,5a,6a teams. They’ll get the extra points to get the number one seed, I can’t see them losing the last 2 games, also it’s tough to play in monacan


Monacan has lost to Manchester
 
VHSL Football Region Standings: November 4

Teams which have wrapped up postseason bids will be noted with (**). Teams that have played a private school team and will have their final rating number divided by nine, not ten, at the end of the regular season, will still be noted with (*) beside their record. We also check the top schools in other regions. If a school has clinched the top seed in their region, they have a "Z" by them.

NOE: The A and B regions will play in state semifinal action come December 7, while Regions C and D will square off. State Championship Saturday

REGION 4B:

1) Louisa (9-0): 28.889**
2) Monacan (8-1): 28.222**
3) Eastern View (8-1): 26.333**
4) Spotsylvania (7-2): 25.556**
5) Patrick Henry (6-3): 25.0
6) Dinwiddie (5-4): 24.667
7T) Huguenot (5-4): 23.556
Chancellor (5-4): 23.556
---
9T) King George (5-4): 22.889
Powhatan (4-5): 22.889


ANALYSIS: Six teams for four slots. That's where we stand. First, on our Game of The Week on 102.9 The Mater Friday, Patrick Henry needs to win Tomato Bowl 61 over Lee-Davis to be sure to be playing the following week. Mathematically, they need this. If they lost, and Dinwiddie, Huguenot, Chancellor and King George all won, it would come down to rider points from other games. With a Tomato Bowl win, the only team behind them that would definitely overtake them with a win is Dinwiddie, who plays Class 6 Thomas Dale (6-3). Now, should PH and Dinwiddie win and King George take down Spotsylvania, the Generals can eye that #4 seed and a first round home game, and it could be against Patrick Henry, but.....

If Eastern View defeats Chancellor and Spotsylvania defeats King George, then the winner of Huguenot and Powhatan likely is in the playoffs. If Chancellor and King George both win, then the winner needs help. We simply won't know the final configuration until games are completed on Friday. That includes the top seed, where, if Louisa loses and Monacan defeats Clover Hill, the Chiefs will be the #1 seed. If both teams win, however, Monacan, before rider points are added in, would be at 292 points, Louisa at 290. It would come down to results from other games for the top spot. In 2019, Region 4B is the region that has the most uncertainty on the final night of the season.

OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS:

Region 4A: 1) Lake Taylor: 29.222; 2) Warhill: 27.889; 3) Churchland: 27.556; 4) Hampton: 24.9
Region 4C: 1) Broad Run: 31.333; 2) Liberty-Bealton: 30.667; 3) Tuscarora: 30.333; 4) Sherando: 26.556
Region 4D: 1) Salem: 30.0; 2) Pulaski Co: 29.222; 3) EC Glass: 28.222; 4) Halifax Co: 25.556
 
Is Region C the toughest of the four regions? Some have weighed in and said no but, the numbers say otherwise.
 
Is Region C the toughest of the four regions? Some have weighed in and said no but, the numbers say otherwise.

LOL This again? The numbers only say otherwise if you think beating teams like Kettle Run, Fauquier, Warren County, Skyline, Harrisonburg, etc. makes a team good. Those, and other weak teams from the northwest are what Millbrook, Sherando, James Wood and those others you’re so high on have been fattening their records with. After Broad Run and Tuscarora, I don’t see anyone too impressive in Region C. Again, just my opinion. But to me, those numbers you think speak so eloquently mainly tell a tale of weak schedules.
 
Is Region C the toughest of the four regions? Some have weighed in and said no but, the numbers say otherwise.
bceagle are you new to this 4A forum? I’m not trying to be a jerk bc if your new then I’ll tell you how this forum goes. All other teams that have great records are great teams EXCEPT in 4C but not when it comes to Sherando. They are the only team that gets recognized above the rest in 4C... now this has been a little different with the addition of Broad Run and Tuscarora bc they came from 5A they will get plenty of recognization but in short everyone else is lucky or has easy scheduling.
 
So in the past ten years Broad Run, Briar Woods, and Woodgrove have all be lucky. But....Sherando gets the pass? Strange logic but, since I am not into fantasy football all I have to go on it this years numbers. I look at 1-8 in region C and see one thing and you see another. You are not being a jerk. We just disagree and that is cool.
 
So in the past ten years Broad Run, Briar Woods, and Woodgrove have all be lucky. But....Sherando gets the pass? Strange logic but, since I am not into fantasy football all I have to go on it this years numbers. I look at 1-8 in region C and see one thing and you see another. You are not being a jerk. We just disagree and that is cool.
I think there is a misunderstanding of what I was actually saying. No worries tho
 
I’d prefer that you all not put words in my mouth. I didn’t call anyone lucky, especially not Woodgrove, Briar Woods, or Broad Run, nor did I imply that. Sherando hasn’t come close to winning a championship, so they don’t even come into that part of the discussion.

bceagle, you’ve claimed in a few different posts that Region C is the toughest, or best top-to-bottom. Yet you’ve really offered no argument to back that up, other than “look at their records.” Yes, it’s true I’ve called those teams out for playing weak schedules. What would you and Sirduke5 call schedules that consist of Kettle Run, Fauquier, Skyline, Harrisonburg, Brentsville, Heritage (Leesburg), the non-Martinsburg West Virginia schools, etc., etc., etc.? How many times do I have to run through this?

I think at this point, the burden of proof is on you guys. If either of you has an argument to present, go ahead. I just am of the opinion that at the Class 4 and lower level, in general, football in the northwest corner of the state is not very strong. Perhaps I’m short-changing that area, but it’s going to take a bit of convincing for me to believe it. I just remember Millbrook ‘16 and Sherando ‘17 coming down here in the playoffs as the cream of the crop from that area, and not making very favorable impressions. That’s primarily why winning records that are built on beating the teams I’ve named, and similar ones, carry very little weight. Especially when Sherando, Millbrook, Handley, Loudoun County, James Wood, Liberty, etc. have no championship cred upon which to fall back. Unless you go back to the mid-90s for Handley’s last title.
 
I am not trying to put words in your mouth and I don’t feel the need to convince you of anything. Doing some novice research into the wins by the opponents and the wins held by the top 8 in 4C leads me to believe 4C is beating better teams top to bottom. You disagree and that is okay.
 
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I am not trying to put words in your mouth and I don’t feel the need to convince you of anything. Doing some novice research into the wins by the opponents and the wins held by the top 8 in 4C leads me to believe 4C is beating better teams top to bottom. You disagree and that is okay.

Agree to disagree, then.
 
Maxpreps rankings is another data point that takes into account records AND strength of schedule. If you take the average MaxPreps ranking of the top 8 teams in each region as of today, you get:

4C: 2490
4D: 3080
4B: 3630
4A: 5430

MaxPreps rankings are not perfect either, but this does provide another objective view point that 4C may be the strongest region this year.
 
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Maxpreps rankings is another data point that takes into account records AND strength of schedule. If you take the average MaxPreps ranking of the top 8 teams in each region as of today, you get:

4C: 2490
4D: 3080
4B: 3630
4A: 5430

MaxPreps rankings are not perfect either, but this does provide another objective view point that 4C may be the strongest region this year.

Fair point. I’ve written in another post that I think Region C is the strongest at the very top, being the only one of the four regions that has two strong state title contenders. Those two, of course, being Broad Run and Tuscarora, who rank 522 and 752, respectively, on Maxpreps. The other six are the ones I don’t find overly impressive - at least, definitely not clearly more impressive than all of the other regions. Take out the rankings of Broad Run and Tuscarora - the two new kids that just dropped back in from Class 5 - and the average of teams 3 through 8 in the current Region C points rankings shoots up to 3,485.

Salem and Pulaski County are the top two in the current Region D standings. To be fair, and out of curiosity, I removed them, and averaged the rankings of the other six teams. That number - the average Maxpreps ranking of teams 3 through 8 - is 4,051. Of course, that’s being inflated by Amherst County (1-8), whose ranking is 7,764. Since there are only eight teams in the region, they have to be included. If you remove Amherst County and take the average of teams 3 through 7 in Region D, it’s 3,308.

So, the average Maxpreps ranking of teams 3 through 8 in each region in Class 4:

Region C: 3,485
Region D: 4,051
Region B: 4,117 (remove Louisa & Monacan)
Region A: 6,479 (remove LT & Warhill)

By the way - if anyone has any idea how Maxpreps comes up with these rankings, I’d be interested in knowing.
 
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I’d prefer that you all not put words in my mouth. I didn’t call anyone lucky, especially not Woodgrove, Briar Woods, or Broad Run, nor did I imply that. Sherando hasn’t come close to winning a championship, so they don’t even come into that part of the discussion.

bceagle, you’ve claimed in a few different posts that Region C is the toughest, or best top-to-bottom. Yet you’ve really offered no argument to back that up, other than “look at their records.” Yes, it’s true I’ve called those teams out for playing weak schedules. What would you and Sirduke5 call schedules that consist of Kettle Run, Fauquier, Skyline, Harrisonburg, Brentsville, Heritage (Leesburg), the non-Martinsburg West Virginia schools, etc., etc., etc.? How many times do I have to run through this?

I think at this point, the burden of proof is on you guys. If either of you has an argument to present, go ahead. I just am of the opinion that at the Class 4 and lower level, in general, football in the northwest corner of the state is not very strong. Perhaps I’m short-changing that area, but it’s going to take a bit of convincing for me to believe it. I just remember Millbrook ‘16 and Sherando ‘17 coming down here in the playoffs as the cream of the crop from that area, and not making very favorable impressions. That’s primarily why winning records that are built on beating the teams I’ve named, and similar ones, carry very little weight. Especially when Sherando, Millbrook, Handley, Loudoun County, James Wood, Liberty, etc. have no championship cred upon which to fall back. Unless you go back to the mid-90s for Handley’s last title.

Not trying to change your mind, just want to put my thoughts out on some of the things you've stated.

I don't think you need to be Salem to have "championship cred." Sherando has had four state finals appearances in 26 years, more than the vast majority of teams in Virginia, and yeah most of them were blowouts, but to say they've never come "close" to winning is a bit disingenuous I think. The championship game against Salem in 1996 was 20-12, and no one in VA was beating Dinwiddie in 2013 or Amherst in 2007 (a game that Sherando was winning until QB Metheny went down).

And while they weren't for championships, Sherando has beaten Salem, Louisa, Martinsburg, and Eastern View this decade, all teams that are considered to be among the best in the state, and indisputably the best in Martinsburg's case.

Liberty has made several deep runs in the playoffs in recent years, but was hurt by Kettle Run opening. Handley made a run not too long ago, and so did Kettle Run in back to back years in 2011 and 2012.

For the record though, I agree with you that the only two teams in Region C this year can likely compete with the cream of the crop down south, and neither of them are from the Northwestern District. I'd say Region C is the most exciting purely because of how many teams are in the mix for limited spots, but not the best overall.
 
Not trying to change your mind, just want to put my thoughts out on some of the things you've stated.

I don't think you need to be Salem to have "championship cred." Sherando has had four state finals appearances in 26 years, more than the vast majority of teams in Virginia, and yeah most of them were blowouts, but to say they've never come "close" to winning is a bit disingenuous I think. The championship game against Salem in 1996 was 20-12, and no one in VA was beating Dinwiddie in 2013 or Amherst in 2007 (a game that Sherando was winning until QB Metheny went down).

And while they weren't for championships, Sherando has beaten Salem, Louisa, Martinsburg, and Eastern View this decade, all teams that are considered to be among the best in the state, and indisputably the best in Martinsburg's case.

Liberty has made several deep runs in the playoffs in recent years, but was hurt by Kettle Run opening. Handley made a run not too long ago, and so did Kettle Run in back to back years in 2011 and 2012.

For the record though, I agree with you that the only two teams in Region C this year can likely compete with the cream of the crop down south, and neither of them are from the Northwestern District. I'd say Region C is the most exciting purely because of how many teams are in the mix for limited spots, but not the best overall.

In regards to Sherando - and really, all of them - I suppose I was thinking in terms of more recently than 23 years ago. I honestly don’t think what I wrote is disingenuous. To have championship cred, by my definition, a team should have won at least one. Or at the very least, if they haven’t won one, acquitted themselves well whenever they’ve reached the championship game. Getting blown out in three of four appearances, including the two most recent, certainly doesn’t constitute cred. Others may view that differently, and that’s fine. Handley hasn’t played in a state championship game in twenty years; neither Liberty nor Kettle Run have ever played in one. Nor has Eastern View, for that matter, and Sherando’s win over the Cyclones came in 2015, a year that EV lost in the playoff’s second round. So, my “championship cred” indicator is flatlining for those teams, too. Handley does have pretty good cred, on second thought, but it certainly isn’t recent. The Judges’ list of wins this season just isn’t at all compelling, with the very tenuous exception of Millbrook. Compare Region C to Region D, where there is more championship cred in teams 3 through 8, in both the recent and distant past.

You’re probably right about no one beating Dinwiddie in 2013. I’m not so sure about Amherst in 2007, having seen the Lancers in a game they definitely had the potential to lose, had a bounce or two gone the other way (oh, that darn loose ball on the bad snap on Amherst’s only punt - it still haunts my nightmares). Salem had the ball with a first down at Amherst’s 40 yard line, only down 41-35 with about two minutes left. Salem had never been down by more than fourteen; most of the second half alternated between being tied, and a seven point Lancer lead. An interception and deep return that led to a TD in the final minute made the final 48-35. So, a little closer and substantially more competitive than 56-10 - acknowledging the loss of Metheny, even though I don’t think the ultimate outcome would have changed.

As I posted above, it’s hard for me to get past the playoff games with Sherando and Millbrook, just two and three years ago. Both had beaten most of the Winchester, Warren County, and Fauqier County teams, plus a few Loudoun County ones. Many of those wins were by significant margins. Both came into Salem Stadium, and both could have been beaten by whatever margin Coach Magenbauer wanted to name. Millbrook looked no better than the fifth or sixth place team in the River Ridge District, and Sherando didn’t look a whole lot better the next season.

For the record, I genuinely respect and admire Sherando’s program, moreso than any other in that part of the state. [And I’m not so much talking about Loudoun County, which is really “Northern Virginia”, as opposed to northwest Virginia.] It produces consistent winners, and seems to go about things the right way. As you noted, they do have some notable playoff wins - a team could hardly reach four title games without claiming a few scalps. I was there, that one time they beat Salem. A great atmosphere, and good people. However, I can’t honestly say I regard Sherando as one of Virginia’s elite programs. I’d probably classify them as being in whatever the class right below “elite” is called. I think they mostly benefit from being a big fish in one of the state’s smaller football ponds. That’s all in my very humble opinion, of course.
 
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Since I probably should have said it above, let me add that I appreciate all of your remarks and opinions, in coming to the defense of the teams in your areas. This is all just opinion, ultimately; since only the best team from each region will butt heads, there’s no way to really know which region is the best all down the line. This is one of those deals where I’m looking back, not believing I’ve carried on this long about this particular subject.
I HAVE TO GO TO BED!!
 
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Our passion for football and apparently our similar passion for data is why we do dumb things like stay up too late on a high school football forum! LoL

I appreciate your insights and I don't think anyone would argue the proud history and long-standing dominance of teams in your region like Salem. I think this debate may be mixing history and "cred" with the here and now. if you look at this year only via power points, maxprep ranking, maxprep ranking 3-8 only, etc., all data suggest 4C is perhaps the strongest THIS year. Again, that takes nothing away from the past achievements of 4D, nor does it suggest 4C will be the state powerhouse going forward. It's just in 2019, top to bottom, 4C is as solid or even stronger than any region.
 
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I too appreciate the conversations. I am only speaking about this year and what I perceive to be accurate. That does not mean I am right or wrong. Should be a great playoff season!
 
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Our passion for football and apparently our similar passion for data is why we do dumb things like stay up too late on a high school football forum! LoL

I appreciate your insights and I don't think anyone would argue the proud history and long-standing dominance of teams in your region like Salem. I think this debate may be mixing history and "cred" with the here and now. if you look at this year only via power points, maxprep ranking, maxprep ranking 3-8 only, etc., all data suggest 4C is perhaps the strongest THIS year. Again, that takes nothing away from the past achievements of 4D, nor does it suggest 4C will be the state powerhouse going forward. It's just in 2019, top to bottom, 4C is as solid or even stronger than any region.

I’m up again!

Yes, it’s all good. I wasn’t taking anything as an attack upon, or insult to Region D or Salem, or anything like that. I just don’t see much to support the contention that C is the strongest of all four regions this year. We have the Maxpreps rankings, but those should probably be taken with a large pinch of salt. Which is why having some other source for objective rankings is so important to these kinds of barstool discussions. Here’s where VHSL-Reference.com proves valuable. In the wee hours this morning, when I was working on the post with the Maxprep rankings, I calculated the average VHSL-Reference ranking within Class 4 for the 3 through 8 teams, in Regions C and D. It should be noted, VHSL-Reference has not been updated to include games of the last two weeks. The results were:
Region C: 15.33
Region D: 20.0
So that’s interesting, because it also indicates C is the stronger region. I didn’t do Regions A and B, because - 3:00am.

VHSL-Reference also rates strength of schedule, although out-of-state opponents are not factored in. Again, for teams 3 through 8, the averages were:
Region D: 60.11
Region C: 58.06
Going by those numbers, the Region D teams have faced more difficult schedules than their opposite numbers in Region C - but not significantly more difficult.

Oh well. Call me a stubborn old curmudgeon, but despite what little we have in the way of objective evidence indicating otherwise, I just don’t think the Region C teams in question are demonstrably better than the teams in each of the other regions. As much as I try to remain completely objective, there might be some regional bias coloring my opinion. That’s probably true for all of us. Anyway, I’ve written all I can on the subject. I have to get on with my day, and my life.
 
In regards to Sherando - and really, all of them - I suppose I was thinking in terms of more recently than 23 years ago. I honestly don’t think what I wrote is disingenuous. To have championship cred, by my definition, a team should have won at least one. Or at the very least, if they haven’t won one, acquitted themselves well whenever they’ve reached the championship game. Getting blown out in three of four appearances, including the two most recent, certainly doesn’t constitute cred. Others may view that differently, and that’s fine. Handley hasn’t played in a state championship game in twenty years; neither Liberty nor Kettle Run have ever played in one. Nor has Eastern View, for that matter, and Sherando’s win over the Cyclones came in 2015, a year that EV lost in the playoff’s second round. So, my “championship cred” indicator is flatlining for those teams, too. Handley does have pretty good cred, on second thought, but it certainly isn’t recent. The Judges’ list of wins this season just isn’t at all compelling, with the very tenuous exception of Millbrook. Compare Region C to Region D, where there is more championship cred in teams 3 through 8, in both the recent and distant past.

You’re probably right about no one beating Dinwiddie in 2013. I’m not so sure about Amherst in 2007, having seen the Lancers in a game they definitely had the potential to lose, had a bounce or two gone the other way (oh, that darn loose ball on the bad snap on Amherst’s only punt - it still haunts my nightmares). Salem had the ball with a first down at Amherst’s 40 yard line, only down 41-35 with about two minutes left. Salem had never been down by more than fourteen; most of the second half alternated between being tied, and a seven point Lancer lead. An interception and deep return that led to a TD in the final minute made the final 48-35. So, a little closer and substantially more competitive than 56-10 - acknowledging the loss of Metheny, even though I don’t think the ultimate outcome would have changed.

As I posted above, it’s hard for me to get past the playoff games with Sherando and Millbrook, just two and three years ago. Both had beaten most of the Winchester, Warren County, and Fauqier County teams, plus a few Loudoun County ones. Many of those wins were by significant margins. Both came into Salem Stadium, and both could have been beaten by whatever margin Coach Magenbauer wanted to name. Millbrook looked no better than the fifth or sixth place team in the River Ridge District, and Sherando didn’t look a whole lot better the next season.

For the record, I genuinely respect and admire Sherando’s program, moreso than any other in that part of the state. [And I’m not so much talking about Loudoun County, which is really “Northern Virginia”, as opposed to northwest Virginia.] It produces consistent winners, and seems to go about things the right way. As you noted, they do have some notable playoff wins - a team could hardly reach four title games without claiming a few scalps. I was there, that one time they beat Salem. A great atmosphere, and good people. However, I can’t honestly say I regard Sherando as one of Virginia’s elite programs. I’d probably classify them as being in whatever the class right below “elite” is called. I think they mostly benefit from being a big fish in one of the state’s smaller football ponds. That’s all in my very humble opinion, of course.

As an unbiased source, and just going from memory (which could be off as most of the 4a I see is on here), I don't know how much stock you can put in saying 4D has more cred recently compared to the 4c teams (exception Salem of course, and Amherst fairly recently). You used 3-8 to say that, but even include 2 seed Pulaski.

Blacksburg has the 1 title in 3a, but when is the last title (or appearance) for Pulaski, Glass, GW, Halifax, Jefferson Forest?

I do agree with you that just looking at record doesn't give the full answer on which region is tougher. But it doesn't appear you are using the same rules to give "cred" to both.
 
As an unbiased source, and just going from memory (which could be off as most of the 4a I see is on here), I don't know how much stock you can put in saying 4D has more cred recently compared to the 4c teams (exception Salem of course, and Amherst fairly recently). You used 3-8 to say that, but even include 2 seed Pulaski.

Blacksburg has the 1 title in 3a, but when is the last title (or appearance) for Pulaski, Glass, GW, Halifax, Jefferson Forest?

I do agree with you that just looking at record doesn't give the full answer on which region is tougher. But it doesn't appear you are using the same rules to give "cred" to both.

No, same rules. But you’re right - in the short-term past, there isn’t a lot of difference. Let’s go back, say, fifteen years. Representing Region D teams 3 through 8, Blacksburg has won one championship, that in 3A in 2016. The next year, I thought Blacksburg very likely would have won Class 4, if their kicker hadn’t had an uncharacteristic off-night against Salem. So, I’m admittedly fudging in mentally considering them state champion caliber. Amherst also won titles in ‘06 and ‘07, and lost two close ones to Broad Run in ‘08 and ‘09. Meanwhile in Region C, the teams currently ranked 3 through 8 have a total of two championship game appearances in the last fifteen years. Both were by Sherando, and neither game ended up close. So, three championships in five appearances is better than two rough defeats. Even if we only go back ten years, that gives Region D one championship in two appearances, with no wipeouts. That would still be better.

I also referred to the long-term past, where the current Region D 3 through 8 have fared significantly better at winning championships than their Region C counterparts, who in their histories have combined for a grand total of two - both won by Handley. Four of those six Region C teams have never played in a championship. Current teams 3 through 8 in Region D have combined to win eleven titles, all-time (including the Blacksburg and Amherst ones already referenced). To see the years each team won and appeared in title games, one can check out the teams’ playoff histories at fourseasonsfootball.com.

I’m not sure how much stock you can put into any part of what I’ve said, honestly. Hopefully some of it holds water. It’s all based on the opinion I’ve formed about the teams in question, by watching and following football in the state for forty years. I shouldn’t even be having to defend anything - I’m not the one who claimed a certain region is the best. I just said I disagree with that assertion. Other than vamike offering the Maxpreps ratings, I still haven’t seen anyone try to put forth a compelling argument supporting Region C’s superiority.
 
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No, same rules. But you’re right - in the short-term past, there isn’t a lot of difference. Let’s go back, say, fifteen years. Representing Region D teams 3 through 8, Blacksburg has won one championship, that in 3A in 2016. The next year, I thought Blacksburg very likely would have won Class 4, if their kicker hadn’t had an uncharacteristic off-night against Salem. So, I’m admittedly fudging in mentally considering them state champion caliber. Amherst also won titles in ‘06 and ‘07, and lost two close ones to Broad Run in ‘08 and ‘09. Meanwhile in Region C, the teams currently ranked 3 through 8 have a total of two championship game appearances in the last fifteen years. Both were by Sherando, and neither game ended up close. So, three championships in five appearances is better than two rough defeats. Even if we only go back ten years, that gives Region D one championship in two appearances, with no wipeouts. That would still be better.

I also referred to the long-term past, where the current Region D 3 through 8 have fared significantly better at winning championships than their Region C counterparts, who in their histories have combined for a grand total of two - both won by Handley. Four of those six Region C teams have never played in a championship. Current teams 3 through 8 in Region D have combined to win eleven titles, all-time (including the Blacksburg and Amherst ones already referenced). To see the years each team won and appeared in title games, one can check out the teams’ playoff histories at fourseasonsfootball.com.

I’m not sure how much stock you can put into any part of what I’ve said, honestly. Hopefully some of it holds water. It’s all based on the opinion I’ve formed about the teams in question, by watching and following football in the state for forty years. I shouldn’t even be having to defend anything - I’m not the one who claimed a certain region is the best. I just said I disagree with that assertion. Other than vamike offering the Maxpreps ratings, I still haven’t seen anyone try to put forth a compelling argument supporting Region C’s superiority.

Again, I agree with you. Just pointing out that the D teams outside of Salem are recently around the same.

I would say that I would consider Louisa, EV, Glass contenders, but they have not won championship recently.

And leaving my team out of it as I am obviously biased, I would consider teams like Thomas Jefferson, Buckingham, Radford (certainly before their injuries), Ridgeview, Union contenders in 2a and if I recall correctly Lord Botetourt hasn't won a championship in 3a.

To me, there are 2 different arguments in this thread. One is the "best, toughest" region, and going just on record doesn't give the story, especially when considering that they are large districts and they are playing mostly against each other. And 2 is what is considered a contender
 
@Gunz41 I can't see a 5-5 or 4-6 Dinwiddie making it in. 6-4 maybe. KG and the other 4B Battlefield teams are much improved and you have to factor them getting points from each other. Powhatan is good enough to finish 8-2 to 6-4 and will get lots of points from their district.

I'll just leave this here. I told you a 5-5 Dinwiddie would make playoffs
 
Dinwiddie I think plays eastern view first round , and to be honest Eastern view got there hands full that one loss to spotsy screwed them up big time
 
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But I could be wrong so I’m thinking by spotsy losing and dinwiddie lost I think ev plays spotsy now
 
And that 5-5 Dinwiddie might just win its first round game too
Dinwiddie will likely finish 7th (tiebreaker). Should visit Monacan. Not what we wanted in the first round, but this team is very young and sporadic.
Should have won tonight, but got beat by two fortunate plays from a former General, Jasiah Williams. No excuses Dale made the plays to win it.

Robert Barlow Jr. rushed for 307 yards and 5 touchdowns tonight. Finished the regular season with 1,381 yards rushing, 2,274 all purpose yards and 25 tds. All of this with three o line starters out most of the season.

Don't know if Dinwiddie will make it out of round 1, but I have enjoyed watching these young kids battle a tough schedule. 7 of the 10 teams the Generals played have qualified for the playoffs and 8-10 have .500 records or better. Proud of our youngens. The future is bright in Navy Nation.

One little bit of history. Dinwiddie has appeared in the last 3 straight region finals. Coach Mills knows how to get there, so any wins after tonight is gravy and seasoning.

Good luck to all the teams that qualify. Region B has a lot to be proud of.
 
Dinwiddie will likely finish 7th (tiebreaker). Should visit Monacan. Not what we wanted in the first round, but this team is very young and sporadic.
Should have won tonight, but got beat by two fortunate plays from a former General, Jasiah Williams. No excuses Dale made the plays to win it.

Robert Barlow Jr. rushed for 307 yards and 5 touchdowns tonight. Finished the regular season with 1,381 yards rushing, 2,274 all purpose yards and 25 tds. All of this with three o line starters out most of the season.

Don't know if Dinwiddie will make it out of round 1, but I have enjoyed watching these young kids battle a tough schedule. 7 of the 10 teams the Generals played have qualified for the playoffs and 8-10 have .500 records or better. Proud of our youngens. The future is bright in Navy Nation.

One little bit of history. Dinwiddie has appeared in the last 3 straight region finals. Coach Mills knows how to get there, so any wins after tonight is gravy and seasoning.

Good luck to all the teams that qualify. Region B has a lot to be proud of.
Very well said @BleedingNavy . Man have they come a long way. I couldn't be any prouder of the fight and the heart of the youngens.
 
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Dinwiddie will likely finish 7th (tiebreaker). Should visit Monacan. Not what we wanted in the first round, but this team is very young and sporadic.
Should have won tonight, but got beat by two fortunate plays from a former General, Jasiah Williams. No excuses Dale made the plays to win it.

Robert Barlow Jr. rushed for 307 yards and 5 touchdowns tonight. Finished the regular season with 1,381 yards rushing, 2,274 all purpose yards and 25 tds. All of this with three o line starters out most of the season.

Don't know if Dinwiddie will make it out of round 1, but I have enjoyed watching these young kids battle a tough schedule. 7 of the 10 teams the Generals played have qualified for the playoffs and 8-10 have .500 records or better. Proud of our youngens. The future is bright in Navy Nation.

One little bit of history. Dinwiddie has appeared in the last 3 straight region finals. Coach Mills knows how to get there, so any wins after tonight is gravy and seasoning.

Good luck to all the teams that qualify. Region B has a lot to be proud of.
EV is reporting they host Dinwiddie Friday at 7. I guess we are waiting on the VHSL tomorrow to confirm.
 
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