4A West Week 11 Game Predictions and Final 12 Prediction

[Tom Potter]

So I have a friend who crunches numbers for a living. He typically runs 5 game simulations and averages the results that you will find below:

4A West Friday Night Predictions

#1 Woodgrove 33, #9 Loudoun Valley 7

#2 Byrd 63, Rockbridge County 0

#3 Amherst County 28, Appomattox 14

#4 Salem 28, #10 Pulaski County 0

#5 Dominion 46, Park View 0

#6 Millbrook 28, #15 Sherando 14

Magna Vista 33, #7 George Washington 19

Rustburg 28, #8 Glass 14

#11 John Champe 30, Freedom 14

#12 Heritage 48, Loudoun County 7

Louisa County 31, #13 Charlottesville 10

#14 Harrisonburg 32, Turner Ashby 10




Final Predicted 4 A West Rankings

1. Woodgrove

2. Byrd

3. Amherst County

4. Salem

5. Millbrook

6. Dominion

7. Champe

8. Pulaski County

9. George Washington

10. Heritage

11. Loudoun Valley

12. Glass

13. Harrisonburg

14. Charlottesville

15. Sherando

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

I LOVE IT! I hope the GW players see this! 14 point underdog

 

[Tom Potter]

Yeah, I scratched my head on some of those predictions but my friends right more times than he is wrong......

 

[hamspear]

Yep! Sherando 14 point underdog ! Love it!

 

[DinwiddieProud]

It will be fun to take a look at his predictions after the games have been played.

 

[blackknight_pride]

I think he got the Cville Louisa score mixed up, it should be switched

 

[falcettik]

Tom Potter, just curious. I understand knowing the entire formula or process is probably complicated, but how does your friend do this? I assume he probably uses some combination of PF/PA, YPG, SOS, W-L, and historical records combined with a statistical variance factor that provides the different outcomes, then averages them to get the numbers you posted?

 

[Tom Potter]

I think he uses a game simulator that can be found on the VHSL Site?

I am pretty sure that VHSL program takes most of the variables you mentioned, falcettik, into account.

I will try to run to ground his exact process.

It being the last week of regular season with a lot riding on games he might not be as accurate this week I am thinking; we shall see!

 

[cutnjump]

I think he uses a game simulator that can be found on the VHSL Site?

I am pretty sure that VHSL program takes most of the variables you mentioned, falcettik, into account.

I will try to run to ground his exact process.

It being the last week of regular season with a lot riding on games he might not be as accurate this week I am thinking; we shall see!

The game simulator at VHSL Reference is a fun little tool and I think somewhere on the site they discuss in generalities the components to their algorithm. When you plug a game in the simulator the actual single game prediction you get will not always highlight the favorite as a winner, however, if you look below the score they give you a percentage of the time that a specific team is projected to win which is based on running the model through many iterations. Also with the single game predictions it is impacted by teams entered as home and visitor and as would be expected the home field advantage usually ranges from 3 to 7 points. All things considered the model is very good, in my opinion, and as you would expect there is certain real time info(i.e. injuries, suspensions, etc.) that cannot be factored in the computer model. One other thing which I have found over the years to be a factor(primarily in Northwestern region) outside the model is a lengthy bus trip. Opponents of visiting teams making bus rides exceeding 3 hours enjoy a further kick to their home field advantage. That is not to say visiting teams do not travel and still win, they do, however, it can impact the play depending upon how teams choose to travel. Hard to believe the final regular season Friday night is already here. Good luck to all the teams this evening!

 

[Tom Potter]

Yep.
My friend uses the VHSL reference simulator. He runs 5 games and takes the average of the 5 games.

Link:

Www.vhsl-reference.com

Have fun everybody with time on your hands....

I gotta get back to work!

#MAGA

 

[cutnjump]

Yep.
My friend uses the VHSL reference simulator. He runs 5 games and takes the average of the 5 games.

Link:

Www.vhsl-reference.com

Have fun everybody with time on your hands....

I gotta get back to work!

#MAGA

The other fun thing about the simulator is that it is a way to play those hypothetical games between teams from different years. Works for different years for same school or different years for differing schools. The only thing with the same school from different years is that it doesn't identify which year in the % projection.

 

[NitroLew]

Millbrook-Sherando should be a great game. Finally a decent game in the NW District.

 

[falcettik]

Yep.
My friend uses the VHSL reference simulator. He runs 5 games and takes the average of the 5 games.
Link:Www.vhsl-reference.com
Have fun everybody with time on your hands....
I gotta get back to work!
#MAGA

Thanks, I was aware of theVHSL simulator and have played around with it. I thought you might have been referencing another program/simulator. BTW-that simulator takes into account the performance of the two teams for years past, I believe (but could be mistaken). Definitely skews the results if you want a true representation of the two teams this year.

 

[falcettik]

nm-double post

 

[gepoirot]

What are the possible ways Hburg can get in???