Mike and company, how about on your side of the universe? Who will be the teams to beat?
Hard to recall now who will return what, in the heart of the offseason. I'll comment on a few of the teams in the new Region D:
William Byrd will welcome back Larry Basham for his senior year. Due to the loss of the qb and the two excellent defensive ends/OL's, I see Byrd as still being good, but not near last year's level.
Jefferson Forest lost eight games in a rebuilding year. Five of those eight losses were of margins of five or fewer points; only one of the losses was to a bad team (Liberty). JF could well be able to flip at least half of those losses.
Blacksburg is riding high off their 3A championship, but will move up to Class 4. I'm not sure what the Bruins return in addition to Grant Johnson, Tiquest Terry, and Cole Beck, but those three alone should account for a lot of W's.
Amherst County, I think I've read, will say goodbye to twenty-five seniors from the team that handed Salem its only loss, and was a legit state contender prior to an injury to qb Keshon Turner. I think Turner returns this fall.
E. C. Glass is a team about which I honestly have no knowledge. Looking at VHSL-Reference, the six wins posted by the Hilltoppers last season was the most by a Glass team since 2005. They started out 4-0, but dropped four of the last six to just miss the 4A West playoffs. The Glass program seems to be on an upward trajectory.
Charlottesville is another team that looks to be on the rise. The Black Knights notched their first playoff victory since 1999 last year.
George Washington is another unknown to me. I seem to recall the 2016 edition of the Eagles being very young. The Eagles had seven wins, but only one was against a team a winning record (2A Martinsville).
William Fleming continues to confound me. The turnaround I expected when they hired Coach Martin hasn't occurred yet; I don't know that I would look for it to happen this fall. [Edit: oops! I forgot Fleming will be moving back up to Class 5.]
Salem should still be strong, but qb Noah Beckley - IMHO, quite likely the best in program history - will cast a long shadow. Replacing his leadership and play-making ability will be a very tall order, indeed.
As of now, my sheer early guesswork would list the
Region D favorites in this order: Salem, Blacksburg, Charlottesville, Jefferson Forest, William Byrd, and GW/Amherst Co.
The other half of 4A West will now be Region C. Just from what I know by following scores and records, and reading on here, I would guess the favorites would be Woodgrove, Sherando, Millbrook, and Dominion.