Salem has had several very good players the last couple years, but to say that there is a huge jump in talent on a single team at the skill positions from 3A to 4A is being a bit blind to the competition. The difference in levels is how long the run of deep talent lasts.
Magna Vista and Brookville have had runs of 2-3 consecutive classes with very good talent, they just have some more dips in there than a Salem that might have a 5-6 class run. A 3 class run is your soph through senior classes, which is your whole Varsity plus some JV.
Meaning those really talented small schools in their best years are a lot closer to the Salem's and Lake Taylor's than you believe. Why do you think private schools in public leagues have to use a multiplier? More talent condensed into smaller numbers equals the playing field.
Blacksburg's coach was still being Mr try cool stuff when they played Salem, instead of properly utilizing the talent on the team. Once he adjusted his plan of action, they were almost like a completely different team. If Salem and Blacksburg met in game 10 the game would have been close.
Blacksburg beat Staunton River because they put their players in the right places to matchup and stop that Single Wing offense. Staunton river housed several teams with 'more skill position talent' , but those teams couldn't figure a way to slow them down. Golden Eagles could have hung 50 even on mighty Salem if they had a game scheduled, if Salem didn't find the right scheme to slow them down. But having seen Salem against offenses like Lake Taylor and JF the past couple years, I would guess there coaches likely would have put guys in the right spot.
The difference between 2 levels starts to show some gaps, but even then with the top teams it depends on coaching style meshing well with the talent on the team, then in game matchups and game plan. Talent is not the only reason why Salem has been consistently so good, they have it, but it is style and execution that has sustained their success.
Altavista during Thornhill's jr/sr year had enough talent, playmakers at the HS level, at the skill positions and good enough O and D lines and backers to win 1 to 3a and take a run at 4a. Heck Appomattox would have went toe to toe with Salem, possibly beating them, the last 2 years. Just like Salem had enough to give fits to Highland Springs and Westfield if the matchups and schemes went right.
Bottom line, don't doubt Blacksburg because of big, scary 4A. If anything, they may face a talent drop on their lines and who knows if the coach sticks to what works. Skill position talent won't be an issue. If one guy is too fast to get tackled, that's all you need.
Thanks for your input. Certainly some food for thought there, even though most of what you offer is subjective and opinion-based. First off, let me point out that I'm not talking about some generic, presupposed jump in talent level from all 3A teams to all 4A teams, as you seem to think I am. In answer to JOrndorff's statement earlier in this thread, I am
specifically saying that the skill personnel on Blacksburg's 2016 squad were not close to comparable to the best teams in 4A over the last few years. Mostly due to Blacksburg's lack of depth in high-level skill personnel, not so much a lack of high-level ability in specific players, though I do consider that to be a smaller part of it. And I've also stated that, unless the Bruins can expect an influx of talented skill position players this fall, Blacksburg isn't likely to bridge that gap - that is, the gap between themselves and the very best Class 4 teams - at the skill positions in 2017.
And again, let me stress that the issue raised by JOrndorff's claim isn't how good Blacksburg will be. If a team has some talent and depth at all the other positions, and plays together, it can overcome a deficit at the skill positions. Which goes along with what you said about style and execution. Salem has been doing that for decades, which seems to at least partially be one of your points. The issue is whether or not Blacksburg will have as much or more talent at the skill positions as "anyone in 4A," and as of right now, I'm skeptical that they will. They'll have the opportunity to prove me wrong.
Have you seen me doubt Blacksburg? I've said more than once this spring, including right here in this thread, that I expect them to be among the top two or three teams in Region D, and among the top ten in Class 4. I've even stated that they probably have a decent chance of reaching the Class 4 title game. I consider that pretty supportive. I hope not being ready to hand them the state title at this point in time doesn't come off as doubtful.
As for the rest of what you've said - again, it mostly seems like your opinion. Which is fine; that's why we're all here. We all have our opinions. For instance, I don't think there's any case that can be made for the 3A state champ being anywhere close to as good as the 4A state champ, in any of the past four seasons. For those teams, yes, that gap is every bit as big as John Q. Average Fan (like myself, apparently) thinks it is. Use any metric you want: VHSL-Reference ratings, Gilliam Ratings, Maxpreps ratings, comparative scores, or best of all, the good ol' eyeball test from just going to games. All of it will tell you that the teams from Dinwiddie, Lake Taylor, and Salem were far superior to Northside, Magna Vista, and Blacksburg. There just isn't any factual basis, that I see, for saying those 3A teams were almost as good, in those particular years.
Did you actually attend last year's Blacksburg-Salem game, played in a relentless downpour? I did, every last miserable second. I don't believe anyone who saw that game would think Blacksburg would have played Salem close last year, in game ten or any other time.
Closer than 57-21, I'll agree, but not close, if Salem had been pushed. In those miserable conditions, Salem scored a touchdown on each of their first eight possessions. They didn't come close to
not scoring. Salem scored 57, taking their foot off the gas in the third quarter. Even if Blacksburg had not onside kicked, and played all their best players both ways, how would they ever have stopped Salem? Dinwiddie, whom many thought had the best defense in 4A, never forced the Spartans to punt. The only two times Salem didn't score in that title game were due to a fumble inside the ten, and a missed field goal. So, due to what my eyes told me when the Bruins and Spartans played, and comparative scores against common opponents, I'm afraid I see no basis for claiming a rematch later in the year would have been a close game.
As for Staunton River possibly hanging 50 on Salem, I suspect you're just trying to have a little fun. Yes, I agree -
if Salem weren't a good team, SR might have scored fifty on them. As they say - if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon. But since Salem has good coaches and pretty good players that usually execute kinda decently, I'm gonna agree with you that the Spartans probably would have managed to put the right guys in the right spots. Based on that, and the fact that the Golden Eagles hung no more than twenty on Blacksburg, and all of a whopping six points on William Byrd.
All the other claims you make about so-and-so beating so-and-so seem like typical internet fodder, of the kind we've been hearing - well, ever since the VHSL has had playoffs. Especially in the Gretna years of winning 3A, when it was widely proclaimed (mostly by Gretna fans) that those teams could "beat anybody." Not that those people, or you, are necessarily wrong. There just usually is very little in the way of factual evidence to back those claims up. A lot of it boils down to whether or not one thinks the teams in higher classifications are really that much better. It seems in general that those who
don't think that are fans of schools in the smaller divisions. As a Salem fan, I've never deluded myself into thinking that the Spartan state championship teams are automatically "just as good" as the top teams in 5A or 6A, especially the latter. Salem
might have been able to pull an upset over Highland Springs or Westfield the last two years, if everything lined up, but it would have been just that - an upset, and a rather large one. Just as Appomattox beating Salem would have been an upset (excepting the first week of last season, when any good team probably would have beaten Salem). I know Appo the past two years has had exceptional 2A teams, and I have much respect for their accomplishments. I'm not arrogant enough to say that they couldn't possibly have beaten those Salem teams. It is possible. Just not very probable. These past two Spartan teams have been
damn good, winning championships two classifications above what Appomattox is accustomed to. Excuse the rare (for me) unbridled partisanship, but I think most neutral observers would agree. And the 2014 Spartans were almost up there, prior to Coleman Fox's injury.
Finally, the Altavista thing. Again, exceptional teams for their classification. Which is the lowest in the system. Once again, that doesn't mean that they couldn't have knocked off the 2A or 3A champs those years. It's possible, maybe quite possible, given Thornhill, etc. But when it comes to the Colonels making a run at 4A in 2014 - we have to ask ourselves how West Point, Lunenburg, Parry McCluer and Honaker stack up against, say, Lakeland, Dinwiddie, Kings Fork, and Monacan. Which is the kind of path to the final Altavista might have had. Also allow me to point out that the Colonels didn't completely annihilate PM (35-10) or Honaker (31-7), and they only slipped by Essex 22-20 in the final. If a team were so dominant as to be able to challenge for a state championship three levels up, I would expect to see much more lopsided scores than that against 1A competition. Further, to say that a 1A team could beat one, or even two 4A teams is one thing. To say that they could beat five playoff-caliber 4A teams in a row is quite another claim entirely. Plus, the Colonels would have run into Lake Taylor at some point. And though I usually try to steer clear of unequivocal statements, I'm gonna lay one on you now. With both teams at full strength, there is
no way on Earth, in Heaven or in Hell that 1A Altavista would have beaten Lake Taylor in 2014. LT's talent across the board was off the charts. Set aside the fact that VHSL-Reference rates that Titans squad at 104, while that year's Altavista team is rated 73. In nearly thirty years of viewing Division 4/4A state championship games, 2014 Lake Taylor is
the best team I've seen at that level, period. Even better than the 1998 Spartans, much as it pains me to say that.
To wrap up, I primarily wanted to clarify the points about Blacksburg, since I seemingly left room for misinterpretation. As for all the opinions about who could have beaten whom, we could bat that stuff back and forth until doomsday. Or until Mike Salem gets rid of all his Salem gear - whichever comes first.
