1. Blacksburg, 8-1, 30.1111
2. E.C. Glass, 7-2, 28.1111
3. G.W. Danville, 8-1, 27.6667
4. Salem, 7-2, 26.6667
5. William Byrd, 8-1, 26.1111
6. Charlottesville, 6-3, 25.3333
7. Amherst, 5-4, 24.8889
8. Jefferson Forest, 5-4, 24.5556
9. Liberty Christian, 4-5, 22.6667
10. Pulaski, 6-3, 22.5556
Took about half hour to check in on some scenarios for fans of these teams and here is my breakdown. I base this on probable outcomes for some teams.
1. Blacksburg(271) for all intents and purposes has locked up the #1 seed unless they somehow get upset this friday. The Road to the state semi's goes through Blacksburg this year!
2-4 are all up in the air at this point. Glass (253), GW (249) and Salem(240) are all in the mix here. I'm giving GW the benefit of the doubt that they'll take care of Halifax. Glass and Salem both have tougher games against Amherst, Pulaski. If all three teams win, Glass will hold a 285-283 lead over GW before you add in rider points. If Salem wins then they would be locked at 4 if Glass and GW both win. Should Glass lose to Amherst, 'Toppers will fall to #4 while Salem and GW would move up to #3 and #2 respectively if they both win. A Salem loss could drop them as far down as #7, IF Byrd, Cville, Amherst all win and rider points aren't kind to the Spartans.
For 5-8 I'll break down each teams fate. LCA and Pulaski, currently 9-10 both still alive.
#5 Byrd(235) can move up from #5 to #4 with a Salem loss. If Byrd loses, they could fall as far as #8 if Cville, Amherst and JF all win but they have clinched a spot in the field at this point.
#6 CVille(228) can move up to #4 with win over Monticello and Salem loss to Pulaski. A loss to Monticello could drop us all the way to #8 if Amherst and JF both win. Don't think LCA or Pulaski could catch us if even if we lose and they win. If we beat Monticello and Byrd beats Northside, rider points will decide who gets the #5 and #6 seeds between us and Byrd. Byrd has 7 point lead but can only gain 32 points from NHS, we can gain 38 from MHS, which would close the gap to 1 point before rider points.
#7 Amherst(224) can gain 36 points by beating Glass which would put them in the 5-6 conversation, again mainly depending on rider points and Byrd, Cville results. A loss would get them 18 points and their playoff hopes could hinge on LCA and Pulaski losing. They can still get in with a loss even if Pulaski and LCA win depending on rider points. It will be very tight for the #8 spot in this scenario.
#8 JF(221) can gain 38 points by beating Heritage, 19 for a loss. A loss coupled with LCA and Pulaski wins and an Amherst loss would put the four teams within 2 points of each other before rider points. It would be Amherst 242, Pulaski 241, LCA and JF 240.
LCA and Pulaski are in the same boat. They both need to win and have Amherst and JF both lose as well as get help in the rider point category to have chance at making the field.
The current top 8 all control their own destiny. Blacksburg is the only team that is really set IMO. Lots of big games will certainly shuffle the matchups. 5 huge games this week involving 7 of the top 10.
Glass-Amherst
Salem-Pulaski
Cville-Monticello
JF-Heritage
Brookville-LCA
Still plenty on the line this week. Good Luck to everyone! Stay healthy and stay humble!