TIER LIST [Week 5]
Teams are arranged alphabetically:Tier 1: Broad Run, Tuscarora
Tier 2: Liberty, Sherando
Tier 3: Handley, Heritage, Loudoun County, Loudoun Valley, Millbrook
Tier 4: Culpeper County, Fauquier, James Wood
Tier 5: Dominion, Kettle Run, Park View
Thoughts: No changes this week. I considered moving James Wood up to Tier 3, but I'd like to see how they handle their upcoming opponents first.
To see what each tier means, check out the original post here: https://virginiapreps.forums.rivals.com/threads/week-4-region-4c-tier-list.63743/
PREDICTIONS
Northwestern DistrictCulpeper County (1-2) at Liberty (3-0)
Culpeper made it to the state semifinals last year, but they started the season 1-3. They ended up with a 9-5 record, eventually losing to Phoebus in the state semifinals. This year they’re off to a 1-2 start and will look to replicate last year’s midseason turnaround. They’ll have a tough test against the Liberty Eagles, who have turned over a new leaf this year, shooting out of the gate to an undefeated start. The Eagles are coming off a bye week, having beaten King George in week 3. I think the Eagles continue to roll.
Prediction: Liberty 42, Culpeper County 14
Fauquier (2-1) at Handley (3-0)
After getting blown out in week 1 against Loudoun County, Fauquier has checked off two wins in a row, which is as many wins as they had over the prior two seasons. They’ll meet a high-powered Judges offense that is averaging 46 points per game. Handley has several speedsters that have torched all their opponents so far this year, and I have my doubts that Fauquier will be able to contain them.
Prediction: Handley 35, Fauquier 14
James Wood (2-1) vs. Kettle Run (0-3)
It took a while, but James Wood eventually pulled away from Warren County on Friday. They’ll face a Kettle Run team that has had a very slow start out of the gate. If business doesn’t pick up soon in Nokesville, this might be one of their few chances the Cougars have at a win this year. They were able to move the ball against Millbrook last weekend, albeit against many of the Pioneer reserve players, so they might have built up some confidence for this game. I think James Wood has too many fast players for Kettle Run to handle.
Prediction: James Wood 28, Kettle Run 21
[Game of the Week] Millbrook (3-1) vs. Sherando (2-1)
Sherando leads the all-time series 14-3, with Millbrook’s last victory coming in 2016 in a 42-41 thriller to end the regular season. Millbrook has arguably more returning stars this year than Sherando does, but their line play leaves a lot to be desired. The Pioneers have a potent rushing attack as usual, but we might see more passing in this year’s edition of the rivalry thanks to starting QB Kaden Buza having a solid throwing game.
To contain Millbrook and move the ball, Sherando is going to need several starters that weren’t suited up against Martinsburg to be ready to go. Hopefully the bye week was enough.
These two teams share one common opponent in Jefferson, WV (0-4). Millbrook won 62-42 in week one and Sherando won 41-7 in week two.
Prediction: Sherando 42, Millbrook 28
Dulles District
Broad Run (3-0) vs. Urbana, MD (3-0)
The only battle of unbeatens this week. The Hawks are off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2013, having beaten each one of their opponents by seven points each. They’ve not played anyone close to Broad Run’s level, so I expect the Spartans roll in this one.
Prediction: Broad Run 56, Urbana 14
Dominion (0-4) vs. Rock Ridge (1-3)
Rock Ridge hasn’t had a good time of it since the first season in 2015, having won only six games over five years. They’re set to clash with a Dominion team that is still looking for its first win. The last time the Titans started with four straight losses they finished the season at 0-10, back in 2011. This one could be close, but I’m going with Dominion picking up their first win.
Prediction: Dominion 17, Rock Ridge 7
Heritage (1-3) vs. Jefferson, WV (0-4)
Since scoring 42 in a week one loss to Millbrook, the Jefferson Cougars have only managed 16 points. Opposing them are the Heritage Pride, who have lost two of their games by under 7 points and won another by 1. I expect another close game for the Pride, and for them to pull out the victory.
Prediction: Heritage 21, Jefferson 14
Loudoun County (3-1) vs. Warren County (1-3)
The Raiders are coming off a hard-fought victory over their oldest foe in Loudoun Valley. They’ll look to continue rolling against Warren County, who stayed with James Wood for a good portion of the game last weekend, putting up 35 points but giving up 63. The Wildcats will need a better performance on defense if they’re going to contain the Raiders. I’ll take Loudoun County by several touchdowns.
Prediction: Loudoun County 49, Warren County 20
Loudoun Valley (2-2) at Brentsville District (2-2)
Brentsville got their second straight win last weekend over a well-regarded Spotsylvania team, which was their second ever victory over the Knights. The week prior they defeated the Cougars of Kettle Run for the second time ever as well. They’ll face a new opponent in Loudoun Valley this Friday, which will be the first ever meeting between the teams. I think Loudoun Valley is much improved over last season and will come home 3-2.
Prediction: Loudoun Valley 24, Brentsville District 7
Park View (0-3) at Washington, WV (1-2)
Neither of these teams has seen much success recently, with Washington’s only winning season as a program last coming in 2013, and Park View’s in 2009. Park View haven’t come particularly close to winning a game this season and their woes look to continue this week against another squad of Patriots in Washington, who narrowly lost last week against North Hagerstown, MD. I’ll take Washington in this one.
Prediction: Washington 27, Park View 13
Tuscarora (3-1) at Briar Woods (2-1)
Tuscarora’s lone loss came against powerhouse Broad Run, and they look to move to 4-1 against cross county rival Briar Woods. The Falcons had a surprisingly close game against Dominion earlier in the year, and their only loss came to an impressive John Champe squad. This one could be closer than expected, but I still think Tuscarora pulls out the win.
Prediction: Tuscarora 21, Briar Woods 7
