Region D Remaining Schedules and Probabilities

[blackknight_pride]

Probabilities based on VHSL Reference

1. EC Glass (6-1)
10/20 vs Liberty 94%
10/27 vs Liberty Christian* (LCA not on VHSL, Calpreps has Glass 41-21)
11/3 vs Amherst County 64%
EC Glass 9-1

2. Blacksburg (7-1)
10/20 @ Hidden Valley 99%
11/3 @ Christiansburg 99%
Blacksburg 9-1

3. George Washington (6-1)
10/20 vs Franklin County 89%
10/27 @ Bassett 99%
11/3 @ Halifax County 90%
George Washington 9-1

4. Salem (5-2)
vs Cave Spring 99%
vs Hidden Valley 99%
@ Pulaski County 75%
Salem 8-2

5. Charlottesville
10/20 vs Western Albemarle 96%
10/27 @ Louisa County 29%
11/3 vs Monticello 49%
Charlottesville 6-4

6. William Byrd
10/20 @ Staunton River 26%
10/27 vs Lord Botetourt 28%
11/3 @ Northside 60%
William Byrd 8-2

7. Amherst County (4-3)
10/20 vs Liberty Christian Calpreps 41-24
10/27 @ Heritage 37%
11/3 @ EC Glass 36%
Amherst 5-5

8. Jefferson Forest (4-3)
10/20 @ Brookville 51%
10/27 vs Rustburg 94%
11/3 vs Heritage 37%
Jefferson Forest 6-4

Standings:
1. EC Glass 9-1
2. Blacksburg 9-1
3. George Washington 9-1
4. Salem 8-2
5. William Byrd 8-2
6. Charlottesville 6-4
7. Jefferson Forest 6-4
8. Amherst 5-5

#8 Amherst @ #1 EC Glass Glass has a 64% chance to win
#7 Jefferson Forest @ #2 Blacksburg Blacksburg 61% chance to win
#6 Charlottesville @ #3 George Washington GW 57% chance to win
#5 William Byrd @ #4 Salem Salem 63% chance to win

#4 Salem @ #1 EC Glass Glass 61% chance to win
#3 George Washington @ #2 Blacksburg Blacksburg 66% chance to win

#2 Blacksburg @ #1 EC Glass EC Glass 52% chance to win

 

[Hilltoperhokie]

@blackknight_pride What are the chances of Pulaski jumping Amherst if they beat PH and end up 7-3? I can't see an amherst 5-5 getting in over a 7-3 Pulaski.

 

[mbonape1]

That is the strongest conference from top to bottom. The question is how does ur top teams match up with the other regions.

 

[cb2018]

@blackknight_pride What are the chances of Pulaski jumping Amherst if they beat PH and end up 7-3? I can't see an amherst 5-5 getting in over a 7-3 Pulaski.

Having seen both teams, Pulaski will give PH fits and should beat them.

 

[cb2018]

Probabilities based on VHSL Reference

1. EC Glass (6-1)
10/20 vs Liberty 94%
10/27 vs Liberty Christian* (LCA not on VHSL, Calpreps has Glass 41-21)
11/3 vs Amherst County 64%
EC Glass 9-1

2. Blacksburg (7-1)
10/20 @ Hidden Valley 99%
11/3 @ Christiansburg 99%
Blacksburg 9-1

3. George Washington (6-1)
10/20 vs Franklin County 89%
10/27 @ Bassett 99%
11/3 @ Halifax County 90%
George Washington 9-1

4. Salem (5-2)
vs Cave Spring 99%
vs Hidden Valley 99%
@ Pulaski County 75%
Salem 8-2

5. Charlottesville
10/20 vs Western Albemarle 96%
10/27 @ Louisa County 29%
11/3 vs Monticello 49%
Charlottesville 6-4

6. William Byrd
10/20 @ Staunton River 26%
10/27 vs Lord Botetourt 28%
11/3 @ Northside 60%
William Byrd 8-2

7. Amherst County (4-3)
10/20 vs Liberty Christian Calpreps 41-24
10/27 @ Heritage 37%
11/3 @ EC Glass 36%
Amherst 5-5

8. Jefferson Forest (4-3)
10/20 @ Brookville 51%
10/27 vs Rustburg 94%
11/3 vs Heritage 37%
Jefferson Forest 6-4

Standings:
1. EC Glass 9-1
2. Blacksburg 9-1
3. George Washington 9-1
4. Salem 8-2
5. William Byrd 8-2
6. Charlottesville 6-4
7. Jefferson Forest 6-4
8. Amherst 5-5

#8 Amherst @ #1 EC Glass Glass has a 64% chance to win
#7 Jefferson Forest @ #2 Blacksburg Blacksburg 61% chance to win
#6 Charlottesville @ #3 George Washington GW 57% chance to win
#5 William Byrd @ #4 Salem Salem 63% chance to win

#4 Salem @ #1 EC Glass Glass 61% chance to win
#3 George Washington @ #2 Blacksburg Blacksburg 66% chance to win

#2 Blacksburg @ #1 EC Glass EC Glass 52% chance to win

What’s the probability Blacksburg overtakes Glass for #1?

 

[Hilltoperhokie]

What’s the probability Blacksburg overtakes Glass for #1?

Almost none if they both win out. Blacksburg may pass Glass this week but Blacksburg ends with teams that don't have many wins, so they are not going to get many rider points. Now if Glass takes an L they could drop to 4 or 5. It is my opinion that the seeding is going to get scrambled. Too many good games to not have a few upsets.

 

[wikki]

@blackknight_pride What are the chances of Pulaski jumping Amherst if they beat PH and end up 7-3? I can't see an amherst 5-5 getting in over a 7-3 Pulaski.

I think Amherst will finish better than 5-5

 

[Hilltoperhokie]

I think Amherst will finish better than 5-5

Very possible, I was just going off of @blackknight_pride predictions using VHSL reference.

 

[blackknight_pride]

@blackknight_pride What are the chances of Pulaski jumping Amherst if they beat PH and end up 7-3? I can't see an amherst 5-5 getting in over a 7-3 Pulaski.

IF Amherst does finish 5-5 and Pulaski goes 7-3, the power points will be quite close but Pulaski will get the edge and make it in and Amherst will be on the outside, watching from home.

 

[freeatlast2013]

How will they stand if Amherst beats Glass, Charlottesville beats Monticello and loses to Louisa and Amherst beats Heritage and Glass?

 

[blackknight_pride]

How will they stand if Amherst beats Glass, Charlottesville beats Monticello and loses to Louisa and Amherst beats Heritage and Glass?

1. Blacksburg 9-1
2. George Washington 9-1
3. Salem 8-2
4. EC Glass 8-2
5. Charlottesville 7-3
6. Amherst 7-3
7. William Byrd 8-2
8. Pulaski 7-3

9. Jefferson Forest 6-4

 

[freeatlast2013]

That would set up Salem Amherst no. 2 except in Salem and Charlottesville vs Glass no. 2 which ended in Ot the first round.

 

[wikki]

In

How will they stand if Amherst beats Glass, Charlottesville beats Monticello and loses to Louisa and Amherst beats Heritage and Glass?

think Amherst will win one of those games at least and hope

 

[Lnacerhoo]

So it seems no team will make it without at least 7 wins? I think Amherst winning both games vs the 4A opponents ofthat are left and losing to Heritage may still get them in but it is critical what happens with JF v Brookville on Friday. Every game counts even more when you start hoping the teams you beat keep winning.

 

[wikki]

So it seems no team will make it without at least 7 wins? I think Amherst winning both games vs the 4A opponents ofthat are left and losing to Heritage may still get them in but it is critical what happens with JF v Brookville on Friday. Every game counts even more when you start hoping the teams you beat keep winning.

That's why I'm pulling for Brookville

 

[Bulldogs_to_flames]

Does William Byrd make it in at 8-2? What about 7-3? Their weak schedule will hurt them if they lose games