The 4 Most Intriguing 1A Matchups Tonight

[uvacavs1]

Looks to me that we have 4 possibly fascinating matchups out of the final 8 Class 1 playoff games tonight.

Altavista v Brunswick

Galax v Grayson County

Fort Chiswell v George Wythe

Twin Springs v Rye Cove

Any more comments, thoughts, and/or predictions about these games (or the other 4) from folks who are more familiar with these programs?

 

[Fairlawncat]

For the final 16 teams (8 total games) the only sure winner is Essex and maybe.....maybe Northumberland. I would say is very, very likely win for Northumberland, but not an absolute lock. The other 6 games are all games where any of the 12 teams playing in those 6 games can win. This includes Fort Chiswell who can possibly beat GW, or Patrick Henry who can possibly beat Honaker. Same for all game with exception of Essex and Northumberland being a big favorite and West Point would be a huge, huge upset, but I don't think any of the other 6 games regardless of who wins could be called "major" upsets. There is that much parity in them.

 

[Jdavis54]

As a Northumberland fan on paper it should be a blowout. But the two programs have a history of playing each other close. Funny enough they have played each other in the region semis the last three times all decided by less than 5 points. As I said on paper Northumberland should blow them out with their explosive air raid offense. But West Point has a strong running game. I think if coach Lewis can keep the Indians focused on West Point and not thinking about Essex potentially next week they run away with it. My guess 40-12 Northumberland.

 

[BigWinners]

I think TS/RC got moved til tmrw

 

[uvacavs1]

For the final 16 teams (8 total games) the only sure winner is Essex and maybe.....maybe Northumberland. I would say is very, very likely win for Northumberland, but not an absolute lock. The other 6 games are all games where any of the 12 teams playing in those 6 games can win. This includes Fort Chiswell who can possibly beat GW, or Patrick Henry who can possibly beat Honaker. Same for all game with exception of Essex and Northumberland being a big favorite and West Point would be a huge, huge upset, but I don't think any of the other 6 games regardless of who wins could be called "major" upsets. There is that much parity in them.

Agreed.

What would you say (just an educated prediction - whether just off the top of your head based on prior knowledge or based on some type of analytics) would be the winning probabilities of say, Sussex over WC or Honaker over PH?

As ESPN would say "Sussex has a 74.6% chance of winning" etc.

Of course, anyone can chime in on any of the 8 matchups.

 

[Fairlawncat]

UVA Cavs, in my opinion, Sussex at 70 percent and Honaker at 70%. Calpreps predicts Sussex with a 28-21 win and 65% chance and Capreps predicts Honaker 35-26 over P. Henry with a 73% win chance.

The thing is, whether it's 65 or 70 percent, that's not enough to feel comfortable. You feel comfortable at 80-85% and up.

You mentioned ESPN. The ESPN matchup predictor is similar to Calpreps. Taking in hundreds of scores for all college games and in early season, nowhere near as accurate compared to later in season when it has a huge sample size of hundreds of games to draw a conclusion.